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China is on edge after Trump's talk of tariffs
  + stars: | 2024-11-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
AdvertisementOn Monday, Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on China, blaming Beijing for fentanyl. China criticized Trump's tariff threats, calling them ineffective and unjustified. "The excuse the president-elect has given to justify his threat of additional tariffs on imports from China is farfetched," wrote China Daily in a Tuesday editorial. AdvertisementMarkets are muted as investors wait and seeGlobal markets were jolted following Trump's post on Truth Social on Monday, but the effects have been felt mostly in foreign exchange. Global firms and Chinese manufacturers have already been diversifying their operations to manage concentration risks following Trump's first term and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, he'd, George Saravelos, Goldman Sachs, Wu Zhiqiang, Young Liu, Al Jazeera Organizations: Global, Deutsche Bank, Shenzhen Lingke Technology, Nikkei Asia, Apple, Macquarie Locations: China, Beijing, United States, Shenzhen, Thailand, India, Vietnam, Taipei, Al, Southeast Asia, Africa, China's
AdvertisementNouriel Roubini thinks higher inflation and slower growth are coming on the back of Trump's policies. "Some of the economic policies may lead to higher economic growth," Roubini said, pointing to Trump's push to loosen regulation and slash the corporate tax rate. "But unfortunately, many of the other policies have the implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth." AdvertisementOther forecasters have also warned of the potential for higher inflation in Trump's second term. Trump, though, has repeatedly disputed the idea that his policies are inflationary and said he would lower prices for Americans.
Persons: Roubini, Roubini —, Doom, , Trump, Taylor Rogers Organizations: Bloomberg, Social Security, Committee, Federal, Deutsche Bank, Trump, White, Republican National Committee Locations: stoke, Mexico, Canada, China
Targeting Chinese chip equipment makers could benefit European firms such as ASML. The Biden administration is reported to be considering fresh sanctions against Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers, pushing up stocks of semiconductor suppliers in Europe and Japan. The suggested curbs would add an extra 100 Chinese chip equipment makers to the entity list, the outlet reported. AdvertisementAs part of the sweeping sanctions, the US could add 200 Chinese chip firms to its trade blacklist, Wired reported. American chip equipment makers and allies such as Japan and the Netherlands reportedly pushed back against earlier proposals.
Persons: Biden, SMIC, Jim Reid, Mao Ning, US Department of Commerce didn't Organizations: Wired, Bloomberg, Tokyo, Huawei, CSI, Deutsche, US Department of Commerce, Business Locations: Europe, Japan, China, Shanghai, Netherlands
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket is not pricing in much in terms of tariffs or net fiscal impulse: Deutsche BankGeorge Saravelos, the global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, discusses the potential impact President-elect Donald Trump will have on markets.
Persons: Deutsche Bank George Saravelos, Donald Trump Organizations: Deutsche Bank
AdvertisementUS President-elect Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, impacting global markets and currencies. Some analysts see Trump's tariff threats as leverage for countries to comply with the President-elect's wishes. President-elect Donald Trump has two months until he takes office, but he's already dishing out orders — and shaking the markets. Trump wrote. Trump jolted global markets, but the reaction was 'benign'Trump's announcements surprised global markets, with the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso losing ground against the US dollar.
Persons: elect's, Donald Trump, , Trump, George Saravelos, Saravelos, Dave Townsend, Dorsey, Whitney, Townsend, Nick Marro, Marro, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Trump, Canadian, greenback, Deutsche Bank, Economist Intelligence Locations: Mexico, Canada, China, Trump, Asia
The S & P 500 will be propelled to new heights in the new year thanks to momentum in artificial intelligence, a resilient economy and the possibility of easier regulation on industries, according to JPMorgan. The labor market has also held up, with more than 100,000 jobs being added in all but one month this year. The S & P 500 is up 4.1% since the Nov. 5 vote. UBS said this week it sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,400 , while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect an expansion to 6,500. His 4,200, the lowest in the CNBC Pro Market Strategist Survey , implies 30% downside from Tuesday's close.
Persons: Dubravko Lakos, Bujas, Donald Trump's, Toll, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Tesla, Toll Brothers, Citigroup, UBS, Deutsche Bank, CNBC Pro Market, Survey Locations: Tuesday's, U.S
In today's big story, the world reacts to Donald Trump's latest trade plans , which could be a massive negotiation tactic . Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesThe man who dubbed himself a master negotiator is upending the global trade market with his latest tactic. AdvertisementThe world is reacting to President-elect Donald Trump's new trade proposals targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. There's a lot to unpack, so let's break it down:So, Trump finally gave us an update on his tariff plans. He's telegraphed his plans for hammering Chinese imports, but a 25% tax on Canadian and Mexican goods was a shock.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Michael M, He's, Will, Justin Trudeau, Claudia Sheinbaum's, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Goldman, Scott Wren, Wells Fargo's, They've, Elon Musk's, Omead Afshar, Afshar, Prince Williams, Bill Clark, Astrida Valigorsky, Alyssa Powell, Kendrick Lamar, Drake, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Affordable, Canadian, Trump, US, Companies, Getty, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, BI, Tesla, North, Spotify, Universal Music, Wall Street Locations: China, Russia, Mexico, Canada, Canada's, East, New York, Chicago, London
Trump puts inflation on the agendaThe inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer, but it never really went away. It’s front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts. An important inflation measure comes out at 10 a.m. Eastern: the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report. Economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates. next year would jump by an additional 1.1 percentage points if the Trump tariffs were fully enacted.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump’s Organizations: United States ’, Deutsche Bank Locations: Canada, China, Mexico, United States
AdvertisementThe Fed will pause interest rate cuts through all of 2025, Deutsche Bank's chief US economist says. A strong economy and the inflationary impact of Trump's policies will offset the need for rate cuts, Matthew Luzzetti said. The Federal Reserve's easing cycle is closer to stalling than starting, at least according to Deutsche Bank. Chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti expects the central bank to pause interest rate cuts after a final quarter-point reduction in December. First, the US economy doesn't appear headed for an imminent slowdown, which dials back pressure on the Fed to prop up growth by lowering interest rates.
Persons: Matthew Luzzetti, Goldman, Luzzetti, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Deutsche, Deutsche Bank . Chief, Bloomberg, Fed, Luzzetti, Citi Locations: China, Mexico, Canada
At a time when most Federal Reserve officials see lower interest rates head, a key report on Wednesday is expected to show inflation drifting further away from target. The Commerce Department will release the October look at its personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's primary yardstick to measure the pace of price increases. "Recent data show progress on inflation has slowed," Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "Recent wage data shows gains remain elevated and suggests core inflation is unlikely to cool near the Fed's 2% target," BlackRock experts said Monday in their weekly market note. "Markets have been pricing out Fed rate cuts — and moving closer to our view — as it becomes clearer that inflation pressures could prove persistent."
Persons: Dow Jones, What's, Donald Trump's, Brett Ryan Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department, Deutsche Bank, BlackRock
The Wall Street firm set its 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,666, which implies an 11% upside from current levels. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 In particular, BofA said it is bullish on financials, discretionary, materials, real estate and utilities. The firm expects bank stocks to benefit from a return in merger and acquisition activities as well as optimism around deregulation under a Donald Trump administration. Deutsche Bank sees the S & P 500 hitting 7,000 in 2025 on the back of rising risk appetite. Goldman also projected an 11% S & P 500 return for next year.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, BofA, Donald Trump, Goldman Organizations: of America, BofA Securities, Wall, Deutsche Bank, UBS
AdvertisementDonald Trump's latest tariff threats have set alarm bells ringing on Wall Street. Analysts warned of a trade war, volatility, steeper inflation, and a flight to safety in markets. Analysts said the president-elect's latest threats could presage tariffs on other countries' exports and escalate into a full-scale trade war. "There has been a view among some investors that Trump's tariff talk was a negotiating tactic, a threat rather than a promise. Advertisement"The president-elect's scorched-earth approach has stoked fears of a trade war, with investors increasingly wary that Europe could be next in his crosshairs."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Donald Trump, There's, George Saravelos, Trump, Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell, Matt Britzman, Hargreaves Lansdown, Nigel Green, Mark Haefele, Ruben Ferreira, FlowCommunity Organizations: Analysts, Deutsche Bank, Free, deVere, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Mexico, Canada, China, America, Europe
Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank chief global strategist, set a year-end 2025 target for the S & P 500 of 7000, which would translate into a 17% gain from current levels. "We see S & P 500 buybacks rising from an annual run rate of $1.1 trillion currently to about $1.3 trillion next year, rising in line with earnings. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 is looking to wrap up a strong 2024 with a bang, thanks to optimism toward President-elect Donald Trump 's market-friendly policies. For 2025, Deutsche Bank sees stronger growth in the U.S. on the back of potential tax cuts and a deregulation push under the incoming Trump administration. Deutsche Bank is not the first Wall Street firm to release a rosy equity outlook after the presidential election.
Persons: Binky, Chadha, Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Fed, UBS Locations: U.S
Bitcoin hit a new record high last week, with prices climbing above $99,000 for the first time. CNBC asked analysts for their take on why bitcoin has so far failed to breach the widely-watched $100,000 mark. "There's a ton of leverage in the system right now," Novogratz, a longtime crypto investor, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday. Novogratz added that he's advocating investors buy "straight bitcoin" rather than bitcoin-exposed plays, such as MicroStrategy which owns a huge, multi-billion-dollar pile of bitcoin in its corporate treasury reserves. Deutsche Bank's Laboure said she thinks the idea of a U.S. national bitcoin is still far off, practically speaking.
Persons: Fernando Gutierrez, Donald Trump, Trump's, hasn't, bitcoin, Andre Dragosch, Bitwise, Bitcoin, Dragosch, Novogratz, CNBC's, David Morrison, Morrison, Marion Laboure, Trump, Gary Gensler —, Deutsche Bank's Laboure, Laboure Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Galaxy Digital, Trade, Deutsche Bank, bitcoin, Trump, Securities, Exchange, Deutsche Locations: Juarez, Europe, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. election and Fed rate cuts are boosting bitcoin, Deutsche Bank strategist saysMarion Laboure, strategist at Deutsche Bank, weighs in on the key factors driving cryptocurrency price movements lately.
Persons: Marion Laboure Organizations: Deutsche Bank
In the emerging AI software battle between Microsoft and Salesforce , investors do not need to pick a side. The announcements came roughly one year after the tech giant launched a suite of AI assistant tools called Microsoft 365 Copilot. Both companies leaning into AI agents is notable because Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff has not been hesitant to attack Microsoft's competing AI offerings. Salesforce stock is up 28% year to date versus Microsoft's roughly 9% gain since the start of 2024. I don't want to go against Microsoft," Jim said.
Persons: Jim Cramer, , Marc Benioff, Benioff, who's, Satya Nadella, Nadella, They're, We've, Salesforce, Slack, Agentforce, Jim, it's, Jim Cramer's, Salesforce's Dreamforce, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, Club, CNBC, Getty Locations: Agentforce, Salesforce's, Mulesoft, San Francisco , California
Call of the Day: Salesforce
  + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCall of the Day: SalesforceThe Investment Committee discuss the software sector, as Deutsche Bank raises their price target for Salesforce.
Organizations: Investment, Deutsche Bank
The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank
CEO Jensen Huang said more Blackwell chips will be delivered this quarter than previously estimated. Nvidia delivered another strong set of quarterly results on Wednesday, sparking positive initial reactions among the company's analysts. Nvidia observers were keeping a close eye on any mention of Blackwell chips, the popular next-generation chips in high demand. Nvidia will deliver more Blackwell chips this quarter than previously estimated, Huang said, and demand exceeds supply as expected. AdvertisementHSBC analysts wrote in a note that they expect "significant" earnings upside for the 2026 financial year despite gross margin pressure.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Trump, aren't, Robert Lea, Huang, Dan Ives, AI Jensen, Konstantin Oldenburger, Stephen Yiu Organizations: Nvidia, Bloomberg Intelligence, Wedbush Global Tech Team, CMC Markets, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Bloomberg Locations: Asia
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's U.S. election victory has ratcheted up concerns about higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies. Trump's return to the White House is seen as likely to throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, potentially keeping an upward bias on Treasury yields. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher prices or a growing budget deficit. "Trump's election advances both possibilities as a trade war and increased fiscal spending work at cross purposes," he added. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, stood at 2.337% on Wednesday, marginally lower for the session.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Alim Remtulla, Remtulla, Kamala Harris, there's, Trump, There's, Shannon Kirwin, Kirwin, Sameer Goel, CNBC's, doesn't, Goel, MUFG Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, Fed, CNBC, Treasury, Democratic, New York Stock Exchange, China News Service, Morningstar, European Union, Deutsche Bank, Trump, U.S, U.S ., Singapore, Malaysian, South Korean, ING Locations: Greensboro , North Carolina, Europe, United States, New York City, U.S, Mexico, Asia, China
Luxury retailer Burberry 's shares present an attractive investment opportunity after the company revealed a new turnaround strategy, according to hedge fund manager David Neuhauser. The stock, which is also traded in the U.S. and Germany, remains down around 40% year-to-date, however. UBS said Burberry was the only luxury retailer not to report "weak organic sales growth" in the latest quarter. "I think Burberry has a good turnaround in place with a new CEO," Neuhauser added, while cautioning that the recovery might take longer than expected. "I think over some time, a good turnaround by Burberry, with strong leadership, could really see the stock price increase.
Persons: David Neuhauser, Neuhauser, CNBC's, Livermore, they're, Zuzanna Pusz, Burberry, , Joshua Schulman, Rogerio Fujimori, Adam Cochrane, FactSet, — CNBC's Karen Gilchrist Organizations: Burberry, Livermore Partners, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Stifel Locations: London, U.S, Germany, Asia, Swiss
Customer traffic gains were similar at the two stores, yet Walmart's sales trends looked much better than Target's. Walmart's traffic growth edged out its rival's, with a gain of 3.1% at Walmart U.S. versus 2.4% at Target. Walmart's e-commerce sales in the U.S. rose 22%, a bigger increase than the nearly 11% at Target. About 60% of Target's sales come from discretionary items, such as home goods and clothing. On a call with investors on Wednesday, Cornell pointed to "green shoots" in the business, even as sales results disappointed.
Persons: Brian Cornell, Walmart's, Michael Baker, Davidson, Baker, Paul Lejuez, Kate McShane, Goldman Sachs, Davidson's Baker, Cornell, Michael Lasser, We'll Organizations: Walmart, Walmart U.S, Target, D.A, Amazon, Costco, Citi Research, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Global Research, Citi, Cornell, UBS Locations: U.S, Minneapolis, America
The euro has declined rapidly, meanwhile, briefly dipping below $1.05 on Nov. 14 for the first time since October 2023. Modeling by Barclays' economists shows the euro hitting dollar parity with a 10% tariff on European products and subsequent retaliation. The bank said the prospect of Trump tariffs and fiscal reforms had caused it to revise its view that the dollar would gradually decline through the year, instead seeing the U.S. currency "stronger for longer." Since hitting a low in September 2022, the euro has been comfortably back above parity even if below its long-range average. One of those 2022 factors roared back into focus this week, weighing broadly on European assets: the threat of escalating tensions with Russia.
Persons: Donald Trump, James Reilly, Reilly, George Saravelos, Trump, Saravelos, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: U.S, Republican, China —, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Federal, European Central Bank, FX Research, Deutsche Bank, Trump, Barclays, ECB, Fed Locations: Congress, China, U.S, Europe, Russia, Ukraine
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Loop reiterates Nvidia as buy The firm said it's standing by the stock heading into earnings on Wednesday. "We see more upside potential and are moving up our target price to $51 from $30. Pivotal reiterates Netflix as buy Pivotal raised its price target on Netflix to a Street high $1,100 from $925. Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman said it's standing by the stock following the company's Ignite Conference in Chicago on Tuesday. Citi downgrades Target to neutral from buy The firm downgraded the stock following earnings on Wednesday morning and says it's losing share.
Persons: NVDA, hasn't, Bernstein, Robinhood, HOOD, Tyson, Paul, Apple, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Piper Sandler, Piper, Morgan Stanley, it's, DELL, qtr, Guggenheim, Oppenheimer, JPMorgan Chase, Cava Organizations: Nvidia, Deutsche Bank, Gaming, Leisure Properties, Deutsche, Netflix, Bank of America, Walmart, Microsoft, Adobe, JPMorgan, Dell, of America, Underperform, Trump, Barclays, Newell Brands, Citi, Target, TGT, HSBC Locations: Chicago
Financial stocks are one corner of the market that's set to reap the benefits under a second Trump administration. The bank currently offers a 2.8% dividend yield, and has posted 10.2% dividend growth in the past year. Regions' dividend yield is at 3.8%, and the bank has grown its dividends by 18.9% in the past year. However, consensus price targets suggest a decline just shy of 1% could be in the cards for Regions Financial. Other financial stocks offering solid dividends include investment bank Goldman Sachs and credit card provider Discover Financial Services .
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mike Mayo, Mayo, Matt O'Connor, Bank of New York Mellon, Robin Vince, Brian Bedell, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bank, P Bank ETF, Regional Banking, CNBC Pro, Financial, Deutsche Bank, Regions Financial, Bank of New York, Bank of New York Mellon, Discover Financial Services Locations:
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