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Nerad + Deppe Wealth Management's Steve Deppe found 12 other examples since 1950 when the S & P 500 ended October with a six-month trailing return above 10%. The six-month trailing return on the S & P 500 is currently north of 15%. On average, the S & P 500 gained 7.4% in November and December in all those other instances. "In 2024, it's very easy to want to take the money and run," Deppe told CNBC Pro from his office in La Jolla, California. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date Deppe currently expects the S & P 500 will finish 2024 above 6,000.
Persons: Steve Deppe, Harry Truman, Deppe, We've, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro Locations: La Jolla , California
The S & P 500' s latest run to a record high last week took it through an obstacle course of macroeconomic and company-specific hazards. Stocks are not at all cheap, with the S & P 500 at 20-times year-ahead earnings, which probably will mute multi-year returns. The median S & P 500 stock is flat year to date, is up 13% over the past three months, has gained 30% off its 52-week low and is within 8% of its 52-week high. On Friday, even as a majority of stocks fell with the S & P 500 gaining 1%, there were 175 NYSE new 52-week highs compared to 54 new lows. Here are the equal-weighted industrial and consumer-discretionary sectors compared to the equal-weight S & P 5600 since just after the bear-market low in October 2022.
Persons: Stocks, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler, it's, Steve Deppe, Jobs, Jerome Powell, Friday's, Henry McVey, KKR's, Keith Lerner Organizations: Treasury, Wealth Management, Meta, Microsoft, Truist, Equity Locations: Meta, handicapping
Next week is Groundhog Day, not to mention the 30 th anniversary of the theatrical release of "Groundhog Day." The ensuing market retreat culminated in the October low at more than a 25% decline from the S & P's record high. Inflation is decidedly in retreat, fourth-quarter GDP was slow-ish but solidly positive, Fed officials did nothing to push back against market expectations for a quarter-point bump in rates next week. But none of the interim S & P 500 rallies in that period made it as far above the 200-day moving average as the index currently is. Yet even with obligatory macro scares and market switchbacks along the way, it doesn't mean investors necessarily remain stuck in the same old doom loop.
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