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☆ What the polls have told us about the 2024 election
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Ariel Edwards-Levy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —Election polls can’t foretell who will win the presidential election. But throughout the year, polling data has helped to capture the contours of the 2024 race, with several findings that fall well outside the margin of error. While the results of issue polls can sometimes vary based on framing, some results have been remarkably robust. Here are more findings from the polls about this year’s election:Which issues matter to which voters? How Trump and Harris supporters differ in their visions for AmericaPartisan divides on the issues run further than priorities.

Persons: can’t foretell, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, they’ll, ” Patrick Murray, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Harris, Roe, Wade, Trump, ” Harris, ” Trump, ”, they’re Organizations: CNN, Monmouth University, Trump, Gallup, Republican, Democrats, Democratic, Partisan, Pew Research Center Locations: –, America, Trump

In Nevada, 48% of likely voters support Trump and 47% back Harris. Hispanic likely voters in Nevada split about evenly between Harris and Trump (48% support Harris, 47% Trump). In Arizona, likely voters are split over which candidate cares more about people like them (45% say Harris does, 41% Trump). The gap is even wider in Nevada, where 71% of Democratic-leaning likely voters are very confident compared with 16% of Republican-aligned likely voters. Likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, SSRS, Harris, Harris ’, Trump, White, Ruben Gallego, Kari Lake, Sen, Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Sen, Jacky Rosen, Sam Brown, who’ve, Ethan Miller, Republican leaners Organizations: CNN, White, Trump ., Trump, Trump . Independent, Democratic, US Senate, Democratic Rep, Republican, Democrats Locations: Arizona, Nevada, Trump . In Nevada, Las Vegas, In Arizona, In Nevada

☆ The undeniable crisis that’s not driving American voters
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

Eduardo Munoz/Reuters A relief group climbs up the side of a hill as they help near Bat Cave, North Carolina, on Thursday. Jeffrey Collins/AP Len Frisbee dumps a wheelbarrow of dirt as he helps with cleanup in Hot Springs, North Carolina, on Tuesday. Gerald Herbert/AP Meta Gatschenberger surveys the remains of her collapsed house in Boone, North Carolina, on Saturday, September 28. Jonathan Drake/Reuters Floodwaters are seen in Asheville in this image released by the North Carolina Department of Transportation on Saturday. Marco Bello/Reuters In pictures: Hurricane Helene unleashes its fury Prev NextBut Vance’s remedy to the so-called weird weather is counterintuitive.

Persons: Helene, Donald Trump’s, Kamala Harris, Republican leaners, Democratic leaners, SSRS, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Trump, ”, Greene, ‘, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Trump’s, Vance, Martika Stansell, Jonathan Drake, Erik S, Eduardo Munoz, Sean Rayford, Allison Joyce, Mike Stewart, Emily Ogburn, Cody Klein, Melissa Sue Gerrits, Sam Soughail, Van Hutchins, Dennis Rector, Josh Morgan, Andy Brown, Jeffrey Collins, Len Frisbee, Jeff Roberson, Christian Monterrosa, Marco Bello, Reuters Linda Bandy, Carissa Sheehan, Kathy Kmonicek, Janice Whitley, Terry Wilson, Melinda, Kathleen Flynn, Paul Hennessy, Gerald Herbert, Elmira Glover, Joe Raedle, John Falchetto, Cassandra Randall, Jessica Downey, Greg Lovett, Hurricane Helene, Hailey Morgan, Phelan M, Megan Varner, Sarah Cribbins, Michael, Luis Santana, Miguel J, Rodriguez Carrillo, Richard Burkhart, Mike Carlson, Candice Ocvil, Jibri Tolen, Cristobal Herrera, Candace Redwine, Guy Ford, George G, Tapper, Ricardo Arduengo, Joe Burbank, Carol Poulson, Andrew West, Cynthia Centeno, Reuters Charles Starling, Stephen M, Dowell, Chandan Khanna, Thomas Simonetti, Pete Beach, Ramon Espinosa, Paola Chiomante, Tim Walz, Harris ’, fracking Harris, Harris, CNN’s Dana Bash Organizations: CNN, Gallup, Republican, Democratic, Republicans, Terrorism, Democrats, Health, Reuters Helicopters, Reuters, Getty, Homes, AP, & Sons Department, USA, New York Times, Anadolu, Workers, North Carolina Department of Transportation, . North Carolina Department of Transportation, Tampa Bay Times, AFP, East, Savannah Morning, United States Coast Guard, Walt Disney, Orlando Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Fairview Middle School, Fishel, State Emergency Operations Center, Washington Post, NOAA, Minnesota Gov, Trump Locations: Gulf of Mexico, Milton, US, Georgia, Alabama, Helene, Ohio, Canton , North Carolina, Swannanoa , North Carolina, Cruso , North Carolina, Swannanoa, Bat Cave , North Carolina, Bills, , North Carolina, AFP, Lake Lure , North Carolina, Rock , North Carolina, Barnardsville , North Carolina, Lure, Asheville , North Carolina, Marshall , North Carolina, Augusta , Georgia, Springs , North Carolina, North Carolina, Bat Cave, Morganton , North Carolina, Old Fort, Fletcher , North Carolina, Steinhatchee , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Steinhatchee, Boone , North Carolina, Asheville, ., Treasure Island , Florida, Horseshoe Beach , Florida, Boone, Valdosta , Georgia, Horseshoe Beach, Laurel, Vilas , North Carolina, Crystal River , Florida, Hurricane, Crystal River, Peachtree Creek, Atlanta, , Florida, Savannah , Georgia, Savannah, Shore, St . Petersburg , Florida, Key , Florida, Tarpon Springs , Florida, Watauga, Sugar Grove , North Carolina, Florida, Port Saint Joe , Florida, Bay Lake , Florida, St . Petersburg, Fort Myers Beach , Florida, Tallahassee, Leon County , Florida, Eastpoint , Florida, Villages, Tallahassee , Florida, Gulfport , Florida, St, Cross City , Florida, Guanimar, Cuba, Panacea , Florida, Puerto Juarez, Mexico, Clearwater , Florida, Pennsylvania

PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — The state of Maine's long-cherished reputation for political independence is being threatened by the nation's polarized politics, with more and more of its voters feeling pressured to take sides. So-called independents, or unenrolled voters, have gone from the state's largest voting bloc to trailing both major parties in just four years. Republicans, too, overtook unenrolled voters two years later. As of last month, a tally of active voters indicated there were 343,488 Democratic voters, 279,936 Republican voters and 273,298 unenrolled voters. The economist served in the Maine Senate as an independent, and remains active on political issues.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Trump, Haley, ”, Zach Azem, — “, Sen, Angus King, Arizona’s Kyrsten, Vermont's Bernie Sanders, Jill Goldthwait, unenrolled, “, —, Paul LePage, Donald Trump, Mark Brewer, Brewer, they'll, State Shenna Bellows, Richard Woodbury, “ I’m, ” Woodbury, David Sharp, @David_Sharp_AP Organizations: New, New Hampshire GOP, Democratic, AP VoteCast, GOP, University of New Hampshire Survey, Republicans, Democratic Party, Republican, University of Maine, Trump, Congressional, State, Bureau of Motor Vehicles, Maine Senate Locations: PORTLAND, Maine, New Hampshire, Bar, District, Yarmouth

The most recent polling on the race, published Monday by The Washington Post and Monmouth University, signals another Trump shellacking: 52% of potential primary voters said they support Trump, compared with 34% who back Haley. The poll, which was conducted prior to DeSantis dropping out, showed that just 8% of voters preferred him. “Even with a bump in the number of Democratic leaners turning out in the Republican primary, Haley is not able to catch the front-runner,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. The former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. has the support of New Hampshire Gov. Though still considered a long shot, New Hampshire likely gives Haley her best chance of challenging the former president, especially since any independent or unaffiliated voter can participate in the state’s primary.

Persons: Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, “ It's, ”, “ We've, Ron DeSantis, Haley, DeSantis, Chris Christie, – Trump, MAGA, Democratic leaners, ” Patrick Murray, “, ” Trump, Sen, Tim Scott of, Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Sununu Organizations: Trump, GOP, Republican, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, The Washington Post, Monmouth University, CNN, University of New, New, New Jersey Gov, Democratic, Monmouth University Polling Institute, Republican Party, North Dakota Gov, New Hampshire, New Hampshire Gov, Republicans Locations: New, Salem , New Hampshire, Granite State, Florida, Iowa, University of New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, Monmouth, Laconia , New Hampshire, Tim Scott of South Carolina, North, U.S, Hampshire, New Hampshire

☆ Is Trump Leaving an Opening in Iowa?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

But unlike the national poll, our Iowa poll has revealed a few cracks in Mr. Trump’s armor. debate on Aug. 23 in our national poll earlier this week. One is that it’s about survey administration: In an online survey, you see a long list of candidates, read them over, and then you choose one. The Democratic primary, however, is a case where more sophisticated modeling of the primary electorate might make a huge difference. My guess: if we had done an elaborate Democratic primary poll — and we did not, in the absence of a competitive race — Mr. Biden’s lead would have grown.

Persons: DeSantis, Trump, Will Hurd, Hurd, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, YouGov, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Democratic leaners, Biden’s Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Democratic Locations: Iowa, Texas, Siena

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