"Credit spreads have rallied across the board since the beginning of the year despite heavy (new bond) issuance and are at multi-month tights. This puts the credit market at odds with economic forecasts and the rates market," Barclays strategists said in a recent note. They said U.S. investment grade bonds rated BBB implied a 30% chance of recession, and CCC rated bonds implied a 35% chance. In the most bullish scenario, investment-grade bond spreads could tighten another 20 to 30 basis points, but they could widen much more if the economic downturn is deeper than anticipated, he added. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and Matt Tracy; Editing by Shankar Ramakrishnan and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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