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☆ Uncertain 2024 makes US companies refinance debt sooner, not later
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Doubts that debt issuance conditions will be as strong in 2024 as they are now, with markets still divided on the direction of interest rates and the economy, have also driven the interest in doing deals now. Credit spreads are underpricing recession risk, said Nate Thooft, senior portfolio manager for Manulife Investment Management. Even if companies waited for rate cuts in 2024, declines in all-in funding costs may not necessarily follow, as credit spreads could then widen, said Amol Dhargalkar, managing partner at Chatham Financial. But Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade credit strategy at Payden & Rygel, said economic data was too strong for cuts. Some $770 billion of investment-grade rated bonds mature in 2024 and over $900 billion in both 2025 and 2026, according to data by Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Maureen O'Connor, Edward Marrinan, Nate Thooft, Amol Dhargalkar, Natalie Trevithick, Morgan Stanley, Steven Oh, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Davide Barbuscia, Barbara Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, ICE, BMO Capital Markets, Investment, Informa Global, Treasury, Federal, Nikko Securities America, Manulife Investment Management, Chatham Financial, Deutsche Bank, PineBridge Investments, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wells, U.S

"The risk of the Fed is asymmetric: the risk of cutting too early and inflation flaring up is much worse than the risk of staying higher and going into a mild recession," he said. Traders are betting that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for three more meetings before starting to cut interest rates in May - earlier than previously expected. Vanguard, which manages $7.6 trillion in assets, expects gross domestic product growth next year to be 0.5%, with one or two quarters of negative growth. The Fed will likely cut rates by 100 to 150 basis points next year, said Aliaga-Diaz. In coming meetings, the central bank will likely keep interest rates on hold but it will keep open the possibility of additional hikes, he said.

Persons: Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Aliaga, Davide Barbuscia Organizations: Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Reuters, Traders, Thomson Locations: U.S

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

REUTERS/Lori Shepler/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 27 (Reuters) - U.S. bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) said on Monday it expects the next few years to provide the best opportunities for private credit investors since the global financial crisis. "As private credit investors, this is the environment we’ve been waiting for," portfolio managers at PIMCO said in a note. In particular, PIMCO expects the lower liquidity environment to create opportunities for private credit investors in specialty finance - collateral-based loans to consumers and small businesses - as well as in senior corporate loans and commercial real estate. Within specialty finance, the asset manager singled out residential mortgage credit, solar and home improvement lending, equipment finance and aircraft leasing. PIMCO said it expects opportunities for private credit to provide such financing not just directly to borrowers, but also to banks and non-bank lenders.

Persons: Lori Shepler, PIMCO, Matt Tracy, Davide Barbuscia, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Pacific Investment Management Company, Thomson Locations: Newport Beach , California

Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina

REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the U.S. Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term, driven by rising fiscal spending, top executives said. "Fiscal spending has not abated. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hit 5% last month for the first time since 2007. Demand for long-dated Treasuries has slipped in the last six months from central banks, U.S. regional banks and sovereign wealth funds, said Jim Esposito, who jointly runs Goldman's global banking and markets division. "Our economists think most central banks will start cutting rates next year, albeit slowly.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Goldman Sachs, Ashok Varadhan, Goldman's, Fitch, Moody's, government's, Treasuries, Jim Esposito, they've, Esposito, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, QE, China

REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Rising U.S. government debt and fiscal deficits that have helped lift government bond yields this year will likely become secondary factors for investors, as their focus shifts to economic fundamentals, Citi analysts said. "Our baseline is that over time investors accept these fiscal risks as a fact of life and that ultimately it is not supply and demand that determine Treasury yields but it's more about the fundamentals of the economy," he said. Moody's, which last week lowered its outlook on U.S. credit, expects the government to continue to run wide fiscal deficits due to increased spending and higher debt interest payments. Some Fed officials have also said rising bond yields, which make access to credit more expensive, could be a substitute for increasing interest rates further. "There is going to be an extraction of higher yields from these investors," cautioned Mathai.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Fitch, Moody's, Nathan Sheets, Ray Dalio, Jabaz Mathai, Mathai, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Citi, Office, Associates, CNBC, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/3] The company logo of Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured at the Shanghai Country Garden Center in Shanghai, China August 9, 2023. Beijing needs to pull "multiple levers" at the same time to address the "vulnerabilities" in the financial system, local government financing, as well as consumer sentiment, said Edward Al-Hussainy, head of emerging market fixed income research at Columbia Threadneedle, which owns Country Garden bonds. China property sector slumpShoring up confidence is the biggest challenge facing Beijing and is key to getting homebuyers spending again, which analysts says isn't likely to happen soon given an uncertain economic outlook. Reuters reported last week that Chinese authorities have asked domestic financial behemoth Ping An Insurance Group to take a controlling stake in Country Garden. "You need to fix the macro environment first; if you don't earn enough how do you buy a property?," said Xu, whose firm holds China property dollar bonds.

Persons: Aly, Edward Al, isn't, Morgan Stanley, Ping, Ping An, Elliot Hentov, Steven Xu, Xu, Raymond Cheng, Goldman Sachs, Clare Jim, Davide Barbuscia, Karin Strohecker, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Sumeet Chatterjee Organizations: Shanghai Country Garden, REUTERS, HONG KONG, Columbia, Reuters, HK, Economic Work Conference, Reuters Graphics, HIT, Insurance Group, State Street Global Advisors, Country, Harmonia, Bloomberg, China, CIBM Securities, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, HONG, Beijing, outflows, Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore

[1/2] The logo of Barclays bank is seen on glass lamps outside of a branch of the bank in the City of London financial district in London September 4, 2017. The SEC central clearing rule, first proposed in September last year, would apply to the cash Treasury and repurchase agreements (repo) markets, where banks and other players such as hedge funds borrow short-term loans backed by Treasuries. "This creates a potential single-point of failure risk as recent events illustrate," he said, referring to the ICBC hack. Abate also flagged cybersecurity risks for direct members of the FICC, as well as clients they sponsor to access the clearing platform, saying mandatory central clearing could make FICC "a fortress with many doors." The SEC is expected to finalize the rule early next year, said Barclays, but it is unclear how much time the industry would have to implement it and whether central clearing will occur simultaneously for Treasuries and repo transactions.

Persons: Toby Melville, Joseph Abate, ICBC, BNY Mellon, Abate, DTCC, Treasuries, Davide Barbuscia, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Barclays, REUTERS, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Commercial Bank of China's, SEC, Treasuries, Corporation, Depository Trust, Clearing Corporation, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: City, London, Commercial Bank of China's U.S, U.S

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

The logo of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) is pictured at the entrance to its branch in Beijing, China April 1, 2019. ICBC, whose U.S. arm was hit by a ransomware attack that disrupted trades in the U.S. Treasury market on Nov. 9, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. "They paid a ransom, deal closed," the Lockbit representative told Reuters via Tox, an online messaging app. "The market is mostly back to normal now," said Zhiwei Ren, a portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. The ransomware attack came at a time of heightened worries about the resiliency of the $26 trillion Treasury market, essential to the plumbing of global finance, and is likely to draw scrutiny from regulators.

Persons: Florence, BNY Mellon, Zhiwei Ren, Ransom, Allen, James Pearson, Davide Barbuscia, Carolina Mandl, Tatiana Bautzer, Pete Schroeder, Michelle Price, David Goodman, Jonathan Oatis, Alexander Smith Organizations: Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Department, Financial, Authorities, Boeing, Overy, Washington DC, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Commercial Bank of China, U.S, Tox, United States, London, Carolina, New York, Washington

☆ Moody's analyst sees polarization around US budget issues persisting next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Moody's changed the U.S. credit outlook to negative from stable on Friday, citing larger fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. Moody's typically "resolves" an outlook, meaning in case of a negative outlook it either brings it back to stable or goes ahead with a rating downgrade, within 18 to 24 months, he said. But the process may take longer and will depend on fiscal policy measures that will be taken. Moody's lower outlook comes after a bond selloff that has pushed long-term Treasury debt yields to levels not seen since 2007 in recent weeks. An environment of higher interest rates will likely result in higher interest payments and higher deficits, said Foster.

Persons: Julia Nikhinson, Moody's, William Foster, Foster, “, ”, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Chris Reese Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Congress, REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States

Moody's is the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. government. Fitch changed its rating from triple-A to AA+ in August, joining S&P which has had an AA+ rating since 2011. “While the statement by Moody’s maintains the United States’ AAA rating, we disagree with the shift to a negative outlook. The sharp rise in Treasury yields "has increased pre-existing pressure on US debt affordability," Moody's said. “Moody’s just downgraded our credit rating outlook to negative because of our out-of-control government spending and deficits," hardline Republican Representative Andy Harris said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Joe Biden's, Fitch, Moody's, Karine Jean, Pierre, Moody’s, Wally Adeyemo, Adeyemo, Biden, Quincy Krosby, Donald Trump, Mike Johnson, “ Moody’s, Andy Harris, ”, Richard Rohan Francis, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Shalal, David Morgan, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Shilpi Majumdar, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, . House, U.S ., Aaa, White, Republican, States ’ AAA, Treasury, Reserve, LPL, New York Times, Republicans, Democratic, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, American, Siena, Nevada , Georgia, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Trump, Wisconsin

ICBC's U.S. unit told market participants on Friday it was hoping to finish the cyber review over the weekend, but the sources said they expected it would spill into next week. The cyberattack sent ripples through the U.S. Treasuries market, where ICBC acts as a broker for hedge funds and other market participants, helping them trade in the securities. The Chinese parent then injected capital into the U.S. unit, allowing it to settle the trades and pay back BNY Mellon, the sources said. They also told market participants about the capital injection but did not disclose the amount or the reason for it, the sources said. SIFMA, the trade group, organized calls for market participants with updates, the sources said.

Persons: Tingshu Wang, BNY Mellon, ransomware, ICBC, SIFMA, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Scott Skyrm, Jack McIntyre, Harry Robertson, James Pearson, Naomi Rovinick, Yoruk, Davide Barbuscia, Chris Prentice, Mike Derby, Carolina Mandl, Laura Matthews, Paritosh, Zeba, Megan Davies, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alexander Smith, Richard Chang, Anna Driver Organizations: Asset Management, Fair for Trade, Services, REUTERS, Commercial Bank of China, U.S ., ICBC Financial Services, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, ICBC, Treasury, China, U.S, New York Federal Reserve, Securities, Depository Trust, Clearing Corp, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, ICBC's U.S, U.S, San Francisco, Treasuries, Hong Kong, Shanghai, London, Amsterdam, Carolina, New York

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A hawkish lean from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell chilled a recent rebound in stocks and bonds, with some investors suggesting the central bank was pushing back against loosening financial conditions. Some investors said Powell may have been leaning against a recent loosening of financial conditions that has come as yields have tumbled in recent weeks. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions - factors that reflect the availability of funding in an economy - was on display in last week's 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth-biggest weekly drop since 1990. "If their concept is to have tighter financial conditions, they can’t really let those yields go down. "The rally of the markets both in equity and fixed income unwound the financial conditions tightening to a large degree," Desai said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Powell …, Spencer Hakimian, Sonal Desai, Franklin, Desai, Vassili Serebriakov, Jeffrey Roach, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Allianz Investment Management, Goldman, Tolou Capital Management, UBS, Investors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, New York

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Liquidity crunches in recent years have raised regulatory concerns about the Treasury market's ability to function during times of stress. "Central clearing will strengthen the market’s core attributes of safety and liquidity in times of stress.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

China's foreign ministry said on Friday the lender is striving to minimise risk impact and losses after the attack. "We don't often see a bank this large get hit with this disruptive of a ransomware attack," said Allan Liska, a ransomware expert at the cybersecurity firm Recorded Future. TRADES CLEAREDICBC said it had successfully cleared Treasury trades executed on Wednesday and repurchase agreements (repo) financing trades done on Thursday. Some market participants said trades going through ICBC were not settled due to the attack and affected market liquidity. The Treasury market appeared to be functioning normally on Thursday, according to LSEG data.

Persons: Kim Kyung, ICBC, Wang Wenbin, Wang, Lockbit, Allan Liska, Scott Skrym, Michael Gladchun, Loomis Sayles, SIFMA, Urvi, Pete Schroder, Gertrude Chavez, Davide Barbuscia, Carolina Mandl, Paritosh Bansal, Joe Cash, Stephen Coates, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Commercial Bank of China Ltd, REUTERS, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China, Commercial Bank of China's, U.S . Treasury, ICBC Financial Services, Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Security Agency, Boeing, U.S . Treasury Department, Treasury, Securities, Financial Times, U.S . Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Bengaluru, Washington, Carolina

A BNY Mellon sign is seen on their headquarters in New York's financial district, January 19, 2011. "We're in a period when the Treasury market needs to be relied upon for its safety and liquidity," Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure at BNY Mellon, said in an interview. "And if on top of that you're trying to implement very rapidly a fundamental reassembly of the Treasury market, that's when you run the risk of having market functioning deteriorate." Notably, in March 2020 the market seized up as pandemic fears gripped investors, prompting the Federal Reserve to buy Treasuries to support the market. "An extended implementation timeline in the final rule could substantially lower the risk that the transition itself could worsen market functioning," Wuerffel said in a note on Wednesday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, BNY Mellon, Treasuries, Nate Wuerffel, Wuerffel, Davide Barbuscia, Laura Matthews, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Companies Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Treasury, SEC, BNY, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New

Plenty of bond investors have been burned calling a bottom in a selloff that has taken Treasuries to the cusp of an unprecedented third straight year of losses. One potential near-term pitfall is Friday’s U.S. payrolls data, which could revive expectations of Fed hawkishness if they come in stronger than expected. The rise in Treasury yields has reached far beyond the bond market. The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July high, as rising bond yields offer investment competition to equities while threatening to raise the cost of capital for companies. “The market is running with the idea that the Fed is done hiking, which they may or may not be,” he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell nodded, Bonds, ”, Jack McIntyre, “, ” McIntyre, Stanley Druckenmiller, Duquesne, Bond, Josh Emanuel, Powell, We've, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, ” Wilensky, Noah Wise, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed, U.S . Treasury, Brandywine, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Allspring Global Investments, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wilshire

The projections prompted U.S. Treasury debt yields to fall slightly, with the benchmark 10-year yield last at 4.88%. "Interest in today's borrowing projections have been higher than normal," said Thomas Simons, money market economist at Jeffries in New York. Investors awaited the Treasury's quarterly refunding statement on Wednesday for details on which maturities will be increased as the department pursues record borrowing levels. QUARTERLY RECORDSThe reduced $776 billion borrowing estimate would still be a record for any October-December period, exceeding the $689 billion in the 2021 quarter boosted by high COVID-19 relief outlays. In the third calendar quarter of 2023, the Treasury said it borrowed $1.01 trillion and ended that period with a cash balance of $657 billion.

Persons: Rick Wilking, Thomas Simons, Jeffries, Steven Zeng, Wednesday's, Zeng, Karen Brettell, David Lawder, Daniel Burns, Davide Barbuscia, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, Treasury, Investors, Deutsche Bank, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, California, New York

The logo for Vanguard is displayed on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 1, 2022. Despite a "cruel summer for bond investors," long-term bonds continue to remain attractive as the economy will likely enter a shallow recession next year, the world's second-largest asset manager said in a fixed income outlook seen by Reuters. "The relative advantage short-term government bonds have can fade quickly, and investors can fare better when they lock in higher rates for longer," Vanguard said. Vanguard said it expects interest rates will not be cut until at least mid-2024, and that bond yields will not return to the low levels that characterized the U.S. bond market in recent history. "We view high-quality corporates as one of the more attractive places to be in credit," Vanguard said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bill Ackman, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Will Dunham Organizations: Vanguard, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Pershing, Capital, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Relentless climb in Treasury yields may have further to run after surging to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Randall | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, “ Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

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