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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGeopolitics and market volatility are a 'divorced couple' that will remarry in 2025: David RocheDavid Roche of Quantum Strategy says the economic costs of a Trump presidency, such as rising inflation and higher interest rates, will hit markets in a few weeks.
Persons: David Roche David Roche Organizations: Quantum, Trump
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'We'll see a period of haggling' over coalitions in Japan, David Roche saysDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the recent elections in Japan and its potential impact on markets.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum Locations: Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is 'fighting hard', but mainly in the wrong direction: David RocheDavid Roche of Quantum Strategy says the complexity of the issue in China is not being comprehended by the authorities, and discusses what measures he thinks are needed to "get the economy moving".
Persons: David Roche David Roche Organizations: China, Quantum Locations: China
CNBC Daily Open: Fear is the stock killer
  + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and normalized in early September. It's not inconceivable, then, for investors who take stock in what the yield curve signals to panic a little. But there's an undercurrent of fear that can perhaps run contrary to what some of those numbers are saying.
Persons: Michael M, That's, Jeff Cox, It's, David Roche, Bob Parker, – CNBC's, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Quantum, International Capital Markets Locations: New York City, U.S
Brendan McDermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets are back to contending with rising oil prices, inflation possibly reaccelerating, fewer-than-expected rate cuts and potentially even a distant recession. The yield curve inverted in early July 2022 and normalized in early September. It's not inconceivable, then, for investors who take stock in what the yield curve signals to panic a little.
Persons: IXIC, Brendan McDermid, That's, Jeff Cox, It's, David Roche, Bob Parker, – CNBC's, Lisa Kailai Han, Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Quantum, International Capital Markets Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says misleading 50-basis-point Fed cut will create market instabilityDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, says the Federal Reserve's initial jumbo cut gives markets the wrong impression that rates will return to rock bottom.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum
A television broadcasts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 18, 2024. Roche said the figures made the Fed's "jumbo interest rate cut look silly, populist and panicky." 1 is that [it gives the impression that] the economy is more fragile than it is ... and the economy is fine, thank you very much, and doesn't need jumbo rate cuts," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." And headline and core inflation will stay above the Fed target of 2%, so the case for aggressive rate cuts [is not there]," he said. "Yes there is a case for modest rate cuts, there is a case for 25 to 50 basis point cuts by January next year, but a case for 50 basis point cut at the next meeting just does not exist," Parker said.
Persons: Michael Nagle, David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, " Roche, Bob Parker, Parker, Dave Pierce Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Quantum, Federal, Market, International Capital Markets Association, Fed, Global, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Israel, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnlikely to see large-scale repatriation of assets back into Japan after Fed's rate cut: EconomistDavid Roche of Quantum Strategy and Martin Schulz of Fujitsu discuss the effect of Fed rate cuts and repatriation from funds back to Japan.
Persons: David Roche, Martin Schulz Organizations: Quantum, Fujitsu Locations: Japan
Veteran investor David Roche expects a bear market in 2025 caused by smaller-than-expected rate cuts, a slowing U.S. economy and an artificial intelligence bubble. "I think [a bear market] is probably coming, but probably in 2025. Roche expects the Fed to resist reducing rates to the market's desired 3.50%. "The second thing is that profits [won't] fulfill expectations, because the economy is going to be slowing," Roche warned. The third factor Roche expects will lead to a bear market is the AI sector.
Persons: David Roche, CNBC's, Roche Organizations: Quantum Strategy, U.S, Presidential
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe yen carry trade will still be 'highly profitable' in 2 years' time, David Roche saysDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the yen carry trade and global markets.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBear market is probably coming in 2025, veteran investor David Roche saysDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the two factors that will cause it.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says he doesn't believe Kamala Harris can beat Donald TrumpDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Quantum Strategy, explains why he doesn't think Kamala Harris, can beat Republican nominee Donald Trump, if she receives the Democratic presidential nomination.
Persons: David Roche, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump David Roche, Donald Trump Organizations: Quantum, Republican, Democratic
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesThe "Trump trade" could unwind after President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 presidential election, throwing his weight behind Vice President Kamala Harris. The Trump trade refers to plays on stocks that are expected to benefit if the former president returns to the White House. CNBC previously reported that Wall Street sees a Trump win as good for stocks as the Republican candidate has called for lower taxes and deregulation. The strategist predicted the U.S. dollar would soften as some of the "Trump trade" unwinds, adding that he believes the prospect of a Democratic victory has marginally increased. Roche said, however, that a Harris nomination increases the chance of a Trump win, but lowers the odds of the Republicans winning both houses of Congress.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump, Donald Trump, Trump's, Michael Brown, Pepperstone, Brown, David Roche, Harris, Biden Harris, Roche Organizations: U.S, Anadolu, Getty, Republican, House, CNBC, Trump, White, Democratic, Federal Reserve, Quantum, Democratic Party, Biden, Republicans Locations: Ankara, Turkiye, Asia, Australia, U.S
Implications of a Trump presidency
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailImplications of a Trump presidencyDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the implications of a Donald Trump presidency following the attempted assassination of the former president.
Persons: Trump, David Roche, Donald Trump Organizations: Quantum
CNBC Daily Open: Biden urges unity
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Trump assassination attemptPresident Joe Biden addressed the nation from the White House, where he condemned all political violence and called for unity. [PRO] Gearing up for electionsWith the U.S. presidential election approaching and stock markets at all-time highs, professional investors are emphasizing portfolio diversification to mitigate risks. Despite a brief downturn due to a rotation out of mega-cap growth stocks, the markets rebounded, setting new records.
Persons: Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Donald Trump, Thomas Matthew Crooks, CNBC's Evelyn Cheng, Russell, CNBC's Michael Santoli, Wiz, David Roche, Hong, Australia's, Korea's Kospi Organizations: CNBC, White, FBI, NBC, Dow, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Wiz, Wall Street Journal, Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, Quantum, Trump, Republican, Senate, CSI, U.S Locations: Pennsylvania, Bethel Park , Pennsylvania, China, Israeli, Hong Kong Asia, Pacific
Asia-Pacific markets climbed on Monday as investors awaited China's Third Plenum and also assessed an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump at a rally over the weekend. David Roche, president of Quantum Strategy, said in a note on Sunday that Trump would win the presidency, with an increased probability of a Republican clean sweep of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Key China economic data will be released on Monday, including the country's second quarter GDP numbers. China's economy is expected to expand 5.1% year on year, according to a Reuters poll of economists, compared to 5.3% in the first quarter. Japan's markets are closed for a public holiday.
Persons: Donald Trump, David Roche Organizations: Quantum, Trump, Republican Locations: Asia, Pacific, China
watch nowFrench borrowing costs still face a "blowout" over those of Germany, as political and economic reality sets in following the country's parliamentary election, according to veteran investor David Roche. Bond yields move inversely to prices and represent the change in borrowing costs for a government — also indicating long-term investor confidence in the economy. Now, my view is that it will happen," Roche told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday. watch nowAlong with economic growth prospects, a key watch-point for investors is France's hefty budget deficit and high debt-to-GDP ratio of 110%. There are about seven major pillars, they suddenly will go absolutely nowhere, which is disastrous for Europe," Roche told CNBC.
Persons: David Roche, Jean, Claude Trichet, , Emmanuel Macron, Roche, CNBC's, shorting, Macron, " Roche Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, Quantum, French National Assembly, European Commission, National Locations: Germany, France, Europe, Italy, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIn France, political paralysis is economic paralysis, David Roche saysDavid Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy, discusses the economic implications of the latest political developments in France.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Quantum Locations: France
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesGovernment bond markets in France saw some selling early on Monday, but were fairly muted overall despite political gridlock after a second round of legislative elections. Jitters have spread through France's bond market in recent weeks. The 10-year yield topped 3.3% — a roughly 8-month high — after French President Emmanuel Macron called the snap parliamentary election in the middle of June. Meanwhile, the gap (or spread) between French bond yields and German bond yields had topped 85 basis points in recent weeks, hitting its highest level since 2012. He added that the chances of a confrontation with Brussels remained with the left-wing alliance, but not to the same extent as if the National Rally had won.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Macron's, , David Roche, Digard, Kepler Cheuvreux Organizations: New, Republique, Anadolu, Getty, Government, European Commission, Sunday, Popular Front, Independent, National Rally, CNBC Locations: Paris, France, France's, London, Brussels
What a hung parliament in France could mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Matt Clinch | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Emmanuel Dunand | Afp | Getty ImagesInitial indications on Sunday evening for the French parliamentary run-off vote threw up some big surprises, leaving political commentators contemplating a "hung parliament" scenario that could prove challenging for both policymaking and financial markets. With none of the groups expected to hit the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, gridlock could ensue over the coming weeks. The euro slipped about 0.3% against the U.S. dollar in thin trading on Sunday evening after the exit polls were released. "Regardless, uncertainty about the outlook for French policymaking is likely to be long-lasting," the analysts said. France is facing a challenging fiscal position, and the European Commission announced two weeks ago that it intended to place France under an Excessive Deficit Procedure due to its failure to keep its budget deficit within 3 percent of gross domestic product.
Persons: Emmanuel Dunand, France's, Emmanuel Macron's, policymaking, Jack Allen, Reynolds, Macron, David Roche Organizations: la Republique, Afp, Getty, Popular Front, Rassemblement National, U.S, Citi, Daiwa, European Commission, Capital Economics, Independent, National Rally Locations: France, la, Paris, Italy, Germany
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKeir Starmer does not have the tools or vision to turn the UK economy around: David RocheDavid Roche of Quantum Strategy says he expects the markets to respond positively to a victory for the Labour Party's Keir Starmer, but this does not change the declining trajectory of the UK economy.
Persons: Keir Starmer, David Roche David Roche, Labour Party's Keir Starmer Organizations: Quantum, Labour
India has undergone a massive infrastructure push and has made significant strides in connecting and modernizing its highways, railways and airports. He's going to double down on that," said Samir Kapadia, CEO of India Index and managing principal at Vogel Group. "Along with creating physical infrastructure, India needs to remain steadfast on the structural reforms ... Increase foreign investmentsFrom veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius to global strategist David Roche, market experts remain bullish on India. Foreign direct investments into the country needs to however pick up pace to further drive economic growth and development, analysts told CNBC.
Persons: Vikram Singh, Narendra Modi, Modi, Reema Bhattacharya, Verisk, Modi's, he's, Samir Kapadia, Nirmala Sitharaman, Santanu Sengupta, Goldman Sachs, Sengupta, Richard Rossow, Kapadia, Sumedha Gupta, Vivek Prasad, Prasad, Mark Mobius, David Roche Organizations: Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Infrastructure, India Index, Vogel Group, Nurphoto, CNBC, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Padget Electronics, Dixon Technologies, Bloomberg, Getty, Research, India Electronics, Semiconductor Association, Economist Intelligence Unit, Centre, Monitoring, National Stock Exchange of, World Federation of Exchanges Locations: India, Asia, China, Mumbai, Noida, PwC India, National Stock Exchange of India
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeteran investor David Roche 'optimistic' U.S. rate cuts are comingDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, weighs in on the outlook for U.S. interest rates, saying he is "optimistic" that cuts are coming.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures as he arrives at Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, June 4, 2024. he said, adding Modi will likely have an "uneasy relationship" with its coalition partners. Veteran investor David Roche called the election outcome an exercise of "karma," adding that this was Modi's election to lose. The party suffered some of its high-profile losses here, with political BJP heavyweights like Smriti Irani among others, losing their seats. A 'humbling moment'Going into the election, Modi's popularity endured despite India's economic problems such as high youth unemployment, inflation and income inequality.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Adnan Abidi, Modi, Neelanjan Sircar, We've, Sircar, CNBC's, , David Roche, Roche, Smriti Irani, overreach, he's, Michael Kugelman, Wilson Organizations: Indian, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Centre for Policy Research, Indian National Congress, Developmental Inclusive Alliance, Independent, South Asia Institute Locations: New Delhi, India, INDIA, Uttar Pradesh, Ayodhya, Faizabad, Maharashtra, Rajasthan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of Japan has 'put a floor under the yen,' but it is not on 'firm footing,' David Roche saysDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the Japanese yen.
Persons: David Roche Organizations: Email Bank of Japan, Independent, Bank
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