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☆ Federal Debt and the Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( David Leonhardt | More About David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

Likewise, the federal government will eventually face consequences for spending more money than it raises in taxes. Already, the costs of high federal debt are evident. About one-seventh of all federal spending this year will cover interest payments on debt the government previously accumulated. (Social Security remains almost twice as expensive as Medicare, the military or debt interest.) Over time, interest payments will account for an even larger share of the federal budget, leaving less money for everything else.

Persons: —, doesn’t Organizations: Treasury, Social Security

☆ Why Kamala Harris’s Centrism is Working
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Kamala Harris capped her first month as the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate with a roughly 35-minute convention speech last night that embodied her aggressive efforts to win over swing voters. It was a patriotic speech that was hawkish on foreign policy and border security. She described the United States as the greatest country in the world — a view many Americans hold but most Democratic voters do not — and she ended by saying that being an American was “the greatest privilege on earth.” She promised to confront China, Russia, Iran and Iran-backed terrorists and to make sure that the U.S. military remained the “most lethal fighting force in the world.”She also offered a series of populist promises to help the middle class by reducing the cost of housing and health care — policies that many independents and some Republicans favor. And she spent little if any time on subjects that inspire passion among Democrats but are either secondary or off-putting to many swing voters, such as student debt forgiveness and President Biden’s climate agenda. You can read more about Harris’s speech in this news story, as well as in this article on how she contrasted herself with Donald Trump.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Democratic, . Locations: United States, American, China, Russia, Iran

☆ The Harris Campaign Begins
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Kamala Harris has an opportunity that would not have been available to President Biden if he’d been the Democratic nominee. She can reintroduce herself to voters in ways that address their biggest complaints about Biden’s record and the Democratic Party. She is Biden’s vice president, after all. Yesterday, a Republican political group urged candidates to criticize Harris as a radical, while JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, told a rally, “The Biden record is the Kamala Harris record.”Still, Harris is not Biden, and she can subtly distance herself from his record and emphasize what she would do differently. Hubert Humphrey surged in the 1968 race after he belatedly separated himself from Lyndon Johnson’s Vietnam policies.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Biden, he’d, Harris, JD Vance, “, ”, George H.W, Bush, Ronald Reagan, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Hubert Humphrey, Lyndon Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party, Republican, Biden Locations: Vietnam

☆ America’s Unstable Politics
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

American politics was more stable for the past half-century than it had been for most of the country’s history. But yesterday’s remarkable events — in both Washington and Milwaukee, among both Democrats and Republicans — showed how unstable our politics have become. Biden himself has begun to accept the idea that he may have to drop out of the race, people close to him told The Times. Trump gave a speech that was both personal and rambling and that highlighted how different he is from any other recent president. He also demonstrated how he transformed the party over the past decade into a populist-sounding, antiwar, immigration-skeptical movement that Ronald Reagan would hardly recognize.

Persons: Republicans —, Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Ronald Reagan Organizations: Republicans, Democratic Party, Times Locations: Washington, Milwaukee, New York

☆ Slowing Down Like Scarlett
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

With Melissa Kirsch — the regular writer of our Saturday newsletter — off today, we’re going to turn to another source for some life guidance: Scarlett Johansson. Despite all this, as Maureen explains, Johansson manages to carve out a surprising amount of normalcy in her life. “She goes to the supermarket,” Colin Jost, the Saturday Night Live star, who’s married to Johansson, said. As I read the profile, I was struck that Johansson also rejects modern normalcy in some important ways. Her large green eyes stay trained on me for nearly two hours, asking nearly as many questions as she fields.

Persons: Melissa Kirsch —, Scarlett Johansson, Maureen Dowd, Johansson, Maureen, Colin Jost, who’s, “ She’s, Read Organizations: Times, Disney Locations: New York, Central Park

☆ Presidential Medical Secrets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( David Leonhardt | Ian Prasad Philbrick | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Only later — years later, in some cases — does the severity become clear. Grover Cleveland’s aides lied about a surgery in 1893 — performed on a friend’s yacht — to excise a tumor in his mouth. Woodrow Wilson spent his last year and a half as president debilitated by strokes while his wife and doctor secretly carried out some presidential duties. Dwight Eisenhower’s doctor initially described his heart attack in 1955 as “a digestive upset.” John F. Kennedy’s aides lied about his Addison’s disease. President Biden and his aides have become part of this presidential tradition.

Persons: James Madison, Chester Arthur’s, Grover Cleveland’s, —, Woodrow Wilson, debilitated, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower’s, ” John F, Kennedy’s, Ronald Reagan’s, Donald Trump, Biden Organizations: The Times Locations: United States

☆ The Democrats’ Unhappy Indecision
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( David Leonhardt | Ian Prasad Philbrick | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Democratic politicians seemed to be falling in line behind President Biden yesterday even as more polling showed his campaign to be in trouble. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain the latest developments and polling. We will also give you a selection of commentary — both pro-Biden and anti-Biden — that we found helpful. The view on the Hill

Persons: Biden

☆ The Week After the Debate
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Whatever its ultimate effect on the campaign, the first presidential debate of 2024 certainly did not cast the United States in a favorable light. It featured two elderly men — one 81, one 78 — who insulted each other and who most Americans wished were not the two major-party candidates for president. The other struggled at times to describe his own policies or complete his sentences. “I am worried about the image projected to the outside world,” Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, wrote on social media. “It’s important to manage one’s ride into the sunset,” Sikorski tweeted.

Persons: doddering, Sergey Radchenko, ” Radoslaw Sikorski, Biden’s, Marcus Aurelius ’, ” Sikorski Organizations: Johns Hopkins School, International Locations: United States, U.S, China, Russia, Iran, “, Rome

☆ Biden’s Polling Progress
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

That’s perhaps the most succinct way to summarize the race two days before the candidates’ first debate — a debate unlike any other in U.S. history. It will occur more than four months before Election Day and before either candidate has received his party’s formal nomination. We’re devoting today’s newsletter to the campaign both because of the debate and because of the release this morning of The Times’s 2024 polling averages. As Nate explains, Biden began to rise in the polls around the time of his State of the Union address in March. With Kennedy included, Trump leads Biden, 41 percent to 40 percent, with Kennedy at 8 percent and the remaining electorate undecided.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, That’s, We’re, Nate Cohn’s, Nate, Robert F, Kennedy

☆ Your Guide to the Heat
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

I still remember how hot the summer of 1993 felt. As one Globe headline put it — describing the entire city — “Pavement buckles, people lose cool and fans just blow hot air.”Since then, I have often thought of 1993 as the hottest summer of my life. It just felt that way because the intensity and frequency of heat was unusual at the time. Today, many of us have become accustomed to heat waves like the one now blanketing the eastern half of the country and much of the Southwest. Last month was the 12th straight to be the hottest month of its kind on record.

Persons: Manuela Andreoni Organizations: Boston Globe

☆ President Biden’s Distrust Challenge
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The voters likely to decide the Biden-Trump rematch don’t participate in most elections. They are irregular voters who tend to skip primaries and midterm elections but do often turn out for the country’s highest-profile campaign — a presidential election. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explained this phenomenon in a recent article. President Biden leads Donald Trump among Americans who are highly engaged with politics, Nate noted. Yet less engaged voters are so dissatisfied with the country’s condition that they prefer Trump by a wide enough margin to give Trump a small overall lead.

Persons: —, Nate Cohn, Biden, Donald Trump, Nate Organizations: Biden, Trump

☆ Biden Tries to Close a Loophole
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden’s latest executive actions on immigration are an attempt to shrink a loophole that has allowed many people to enter the country without legal permission. That loophole is the asylum system. Not as intendedThe modern idea of asylum stems from World War II. Today, many migrants claim asylum even though they are not at risk of being persecuted. They instead want to move to the U.S. — understandably enough — because it is a richer, politically freer and less violent place than much of the world.

Persons: Biden’s, — Locations: South Sudanese

☆ Mexico Elects Claudia Sheinbaum
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( David Leonhardt | Ian Prasad Philbrick | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

When foreigners hear news from Mexico, it can often sound chaotic, involving cartels, crime or migration surges. But last night’s election results make clear that most Mexicans are pleased with their country’s direction. Claudia Sheinbaum — the former mayor of Mexico City and the chosen successor of the current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador — won the presidency easily. Sheinbaum, a leftist-leaning engineer, received about 58 percent of the vote, to around 29 percent for Xóchitl Gálvez, a centrist entrepreneur, and about 11 percent for Jorge Álvarez Máynez, a progressive candidate. In today’s newsletter, we’ll explain why most Mexican citizens have been so satisfied with López Obrador (who’s often known by his initials, AMLO) and what challenges Sheinbaum will likely face, starting with violent crime, which is indeed a major problem.

Persons: Claudia Sheinbaum —, Andrés Manuel López Obrador —, Gálvez, Jorge Álvarez Máynez, López Obrador, Sheinbaum Locations: Mexico, Mexico City

☆ The Conviction of Donald J. Trump
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The criminal justice system finally caught up to Donald Trump. First, he was a New York businessman whose company violated discrimination laws, failed to repay debts and flirted with bankruptcy. Yesterday, however, a criminal jury judged Trump for the first time. The prosecutors argued that Trump had falsified business records to hide a sexual affair from voters and corrupt the 2016 election. Trump has become the first former president of the United States to be a convicted felon.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump Locations: New York, Georgia, Manhattan, United States

☆ Patriotism, Diversity and the Election
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Student debt. One is the contrast between the country’s most heated political debates and the top concerns of most voters. Student debt and housing costs make for a useful comparison. Student debt, a subject that the Biden administration has emphasized, may seem like the ultimate pocketbook issue. In reality, it’s more niche: Only 18 percent of U.S. adults have any federal student debt.

Persons: Biden Organizations: Democratic Locations: Gaza, U.S

☆ Democrats Who Are Winning
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Recent polls contain a surprising combination of results: Democrats appear to be leading in six tough Senate races even as President Biden trails Donald Trump in the same states. What are these Democratic Senate candidates doing right? In today’s newsletter, I’ll highlight the single biggest theme that emerged: The six Democrats are basing their campaigns around a populism that harshly criticizes both big business and China. (In a follow-up newsletter, I’ll look at several other campaign themes.) Still, most of the Democrats in these races aren’t merely ahead in the polls; they also have a track record of winning tough races by appealing to voters who are skeptical of the Democratic Party.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, It’s Organizations: Democratic, Democratic Party Locations: China

☆ Addressing Immigration
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

President Biden and his aides describe this year’s election as crucial — existential, even — because of Donald Trump’s hostility to democracy. Yet given the election’s importance, the Biden administration has been notably slow to address one of his biggest political vulnerabilities: immigration. Polls show that immigration is a top concern of voters, often trailing only the economy. Most voters are unhappy with Biden’s handling of the issue and say they trust Trump more on it. Despite this situation, the White House has been reluctant to act aggressively for most of the past few years.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump’s, Trump Organizations: Democratic, White, Politico

☆ The Rise of a New Centrism
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Washington, you often hear, is a place so polarized that our leaders barely get anything done. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a progressive leader, has worked on legislation with several conservative Senate Republicans, including Josh Hawley and J.D. My editors recently asked me to make sense of this conundrum: A polarized country in which bipartisanship has somehow become normal. To do so, I spoke with Congress members from both parties, as well as Biden administration officials and outside experts. I emerged from the project believing that the U.S. was indeed a polarized country in many ways — but less polarized than people sometimes think.

Persons: Biden —, Donald Trump’s, —, Elizabeth Warren, Josh Hawley, J.D, Vance, Lina Khan —, Biden, ” Biden, bipartisanship Organizations: Democrats, Republican, Republicans, Federal Trade Commission Locations: U.S

☆ A New Centrism Is Rising in Washington
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Republican Party has moved to the right by many measures, and the Democratic Party has moved to the left. One consequence of this polarization, politicians and pundits often say, is gridlock in Washington. These years have been arguably the most productive period of Washington bipartisanship in decades. After the bill’s passage, far-right House Republicans tried to oust Speaker Mike Johnson because he did not block it — and House Democrats voted to save Johnson’s job. Last week, the House advanced another bipartisan bill, on disaster relief, using a rare procedural technique to get around party-line votes.

Persons: Washington bipartisanship, Biden, Mike Johnson Organizations: Republican Party, Democratic Party, Republicans, Postal Service, Trump, House Democrats Locations: Washington, Ukraine

☆ How Israeli Extremists Won
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Last October, an Israeli settler in the West Bank set a Palestinian home on fire. And last fall, a settler shot a Palestinian in the stomach in front of an Israeli soldier. Yet the authorities have not charged any of these settlers — or others who have attacked West Bank residents — with crimes. In it, they document how violent factions within the settler movement have repeatedly received protection from the Israeli government despite attacks against Palestinians — and even against Israeli officials who tried to challenge the settlers. An Israeli government report in 1982 documented the problem, to no effect.

Persons: —, Ronen Bergman, Mark Mazzetti, ” Ronen, Mark, “ Organizations: West Bank, Times Magazine Locations: “, of Israel

☆ A New Rent-Versus-Buy Calculator
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

It is the biggest financial decision for many younger adults: Should I rent a home or buy one? To help people understand the trade-offs, The Times has just relaunched its popular rent-versus-buy calculator. The calculator, which The Times’s Upshot section built, has been updated in several important ways, including to take into account the 2017 tax law that affected the mortgage-interest deduction. Ultimately, the calculator can’t tell you whether you should rent or buy. That decision depends on the future paths of home prices and rents, which are unknowable.

Organizations: Times

☆ The Debate Over Rafah
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

At the heart of the dispute between President Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu over invading Rafah is a larger disagreement about what Israel can reasonably hope to accomplish against Hamas. Israel’s military has already made progress, having dismantled at least 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions since the Oct. 7 attacks. But Hamas’s top leaders and thousands of fighters have survived, many evidently fleeing to tunnels under Rafah. “Ending the war without clearing out Rafah is like sending a firefighter to extinguish 80 percent of the fire,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and Netanyahu’s chief political opponent, has told U.S. officials. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, which tends to support Netanyahu, has called Rafah “the crucial city for the terrorist group’s future.”

Persons: Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, I’ll, Netanyahu, ” Benny Gantz, ” Organizations: U.S Locations: Rafah, Israel

☆ Delay, Delay, Delay
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

And he directed state election officials to “find” him votes. Even so, Congress did not sanction him, and neither of the criminal trials related to his actions may even start before the 2024 election. Republican senatorsThe simplest path for addressing Trump’s attempts to overthrow an election was always in Congress. Congress has the power to impeach officials and bar them from holding office again, and it has used this power before. Most criminal convictions, by contrast, do not prevent somebody from holding office.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Trump’s Organizations: Capitol, Republican, Democratic, Congress

☆ Chaos and Oppression
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Arnold Kling, an economist, published a book a decade ago that offered a way to think about the core difference between progressives and conservatives. Progressives, Kling wrote, see the world as a struggle between the oppressor and the oppressed, and they try to help the oppressed. Conservatives see the world as a struggle between civilization and barbarism — between order and chaos — and they try to protect civilization. But his book has been influential because the framework often sheds light on political arguments. If you want to understand why university leaders are finding the situation so hard to resolve, Kling’s dichotomy is useful: The central question for colleges is whether to prioritize the preservation of order or the desire of students to denounce oppression.

Persons: Arnold Kling, Kling Organizations: Progressives, Columbia

☆ TikTok’s Pro-China Tilt
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( David Leonhardt | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Just a few months ago, it seemed unlikely that the U.S. government would force ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, to sell it. The platform is popular, and Congress rarely passes legislation aimed at a single company. If ByteDance does not sell TikTok within 12 months, it will be banned in the United States. TikTok is also owned by a company based in the leading global rival of the United States. And that rival, especially under President Xi Jinping, treats private companies as extensions of the state.

Persons: TikTok, ByteDance, Biden, Xi Jinping, ” Christopher Wray Locations: Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, United States

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