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AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
Investors may soon be forced to take on more risk and rethink their diversification strategies due to macroeconomic uncertainties. And that presents challenges for those who follow the traditional balance of 60% stocks to 40% bonds as a diversifier, he added. "Momentum has really been driving equities higher across the board, especially with respect to large-cap growth names," Adams said. The study found that stocks, bonds, and options strategies could have more correlated risk than is evident on the surface. "So value stocks are about the here-and-now, growth stocks are about the hereafter."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jon Adams, Adams, Jimmy Chang, Donald Trump, Chang, Nikolai Roussanov, David Kelly, you've, Kelly Organizations: Calamos Wealth, Treasury, Rockefeller, Family, Wharton School, Morgan Asset Management
AdvertisementUS stocks have been on a tear since Trump's win. "Let me tell you something: If Trump enacted 50% of what he's saying, you'll have a stock market crash, the likes that you haven't seen since the 1920s," Scaramucci said. You'll crush the economy; you'll crush our tax revenues; you'll flip upside down the job market," Scaramucci said. "They will not be ready for that, and so the stock market will have gotten wrong the current movement." "My guess is that the stock market aficionados, the stock market experts, are probably right," Scaramucci said.
Persons: SkyBridge Capital's Anthony Scaramucci, Trump, there's, Scaramucci, , Anthony Scaramucci, it's, Bitcoin, Donald Trump's, didn't, David Bahnsen, he's, — Elon Musk, Elon, Tom Orlik, David Kelly, ​ ​, Susie Wiles Organizations: Service, House, SkyBridge, Business, Nasdaq, Russell, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican
US stocks had one of their best days in years and hit new records after Trump's resounding win over Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election. Both of those moves make sense, said David Kelly, the global strategy chief at JPMorgan Asset Management, in an interview on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe strategy chief has been adamant that higher tariffs — one of Trump's key proposals — would cripple the US economy and endanger the global economic expansion. Related storiesMost economists condemn tariffs, which are taxes on imports, because they tend to lead to higher prices and lower economic growth. Sean Gallagher, the global head of Lazard's small-cap equity platform, made a similar point in a recent interview with Business Insider when asked about Trump's tariffs and Kelly's stance.
Persons: Stocks, Donald Trump, David Kelly, Wall, he's, , Donald Trump's, Trump's, Kamala Harris, Kelly, Trump, Mahatma Gandhi, I'm, I've, Tom Orlik, who's, Chris Murphy, Susquehanna's, Orlik, Sean Gallagher, Gallagher, maven, He's, inflation's Organizations: House . Market, Service, Nasdaq, US, JPMorgan Asset Management, Republican, JPMAM, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is key focus of Fed rate cut, says Morgan Stanley's Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management CIO of cross asset solutions; and Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss reactions to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron David Kelly, Jim Caron, Morgan, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, CNBC's Organizations: Labor, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley Investment, Wolfe Research, Federal
If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, , Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed
AdvertisementIn the third quarter, US economic growth fell short of expectations but remained strong. "The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending," the news release said. Consumer spending was a particular highlight, with personal consumption expenditures growing at a strong 3.7% annualized rate. AdvertisementThe weaker-than-expected GDP growth doesn't necessarily mean the US is heading toward a recession. Investment in nonresidential equipment had another strong quarter, surging at an annualized rate of 11.1%.
Persons: , David Kelly, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Investment, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, Commerce Department, Hurricane Locations: Hurricane
Corporate earnings growth, productivity growth, and business fixed investment all seem to be headed in the right direction as well. Related storiesThese signals have given David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, great confidence. Such tariffs would cause "seismic shocks to the US economy," Tom Orlik, the chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said earlier this month. Charles Schwab global investment strategy chief Jeffrey Kleintop cited tariffs as a top risk back in June. "But oddly enough, the global economy bounced back anyway.
Persons: David Kelly, , JPMAM, Kelly, Donald Trump who's, Tom Orlik, Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, I'd Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Economics, Peterson
However, real estate — specifically the commercial side — may be poised to take off. "This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate." Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with JPMAM's team, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, they're, That's, David Kelly, what's, JPMAM, Kelly, David Lebovitz, Monica Issar, Issar Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Service, Asset Management, Management, JPMorgan Private
Just ignore the word ‘tariff’ — it’s a tax
  + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Especially when you hear words like “tariffs.”But, given the economy’s central importance in the 2024 race, it’s worth hammering on an Econ 101 fact: Tariffs are a tax on Americans. Very simply: When the US government decides to put a tariff (read: tax) on, say, Chinese goods, the actual money going to the US Treasury comes from the American company doing the importing. “To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Trump said at one point. But it’s important to judge Trump’s first-term trade policies and the Biden-Harris approach against context of the unprecedented tariff wave Trump is planning if he gets to Round Two. Bottom line: Tariffs might be a beautiful word to Trump’s ear, but he’s telling a fictional story about what they do in practice.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Donald Trump, It’s, , Annette Choi, Katie Lobosco, podcaster Sean Kelly, David Pakman, Kelly, he’s, ” Kelly, Pakman, , Trump, ” Trump, John Micklethwait, Micklethwait, it’s, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Trump’s, Harris, , Scott Lincicome, United States —, ” David Kelly, Matt Egan Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Economic, of Chicago, Biden, Trump, Republican, Cato Institute, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Federal, Peterson Institute, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, United States, States
Nouriel Roubini says stagflation risk will rise if Donald Trump wins the election. AdvertisementThe US economy might confront a fate more challenging than a recession if Donald Trump retakes the White House, famed economist Nouriel Roubini said. According to Roubini, Trump's proposals would fuel these two key ingredients: lower growth and higher inflation. In July, JPMorgan's chief global strategist David Kelly called Trump's tariff and immigration policy mix an "elixir for stagflation." AdvertisementRoubini said tensions in the Middle East make the threat of stagflation under Trump worse.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Donald Trump, Doom, , Donald Trump retakes, Trump, Kamala Harris, stagflation, Roubini, Larry Summers, David Kelly Organizations: Greenwich Economic, Treasury, Service, Bloomberg, Barclays, Republican, Peterson Institute, Trump Locations: Greenwich, Israel, Iran
Yet, as markets eye a soft landing, potential shocks pose a higher risk to investors, David Kelly says. The firm's chief global strategist says the promise of a soft landing has encouraged Americans to pour into riskier assets at the exact time they shouldn't be. "I will say that although I think this is positive for the equity market, I am getting increasingly queasy about the fact that the equity market keeps on pricing in a soft landing," Kelly told Business Insider. He said that as the market prices in a soft landing, valuations rise, which means any shock to the market could send asset prices tumbling. According to Fed data, the total aggregate wealth of American households grew by about $50 trillion in the last five years.
Persons: David Kelly, , Kelly, shouldn't, you've, payrolls Organizations: Service, Asset, Business, Federal
CNBC Daily Open: October’s gravity bringing stocks down
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But gravity is catching up with stocks in October, which tends to be a volatile month. If the number of jobs added comes in higher than expected, markets are likely to react well. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: Michael M, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City
CNBC Daily Open: Stocks can’t defy October’s gravity
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] How to play the jobs report The U.S. jobs report for September, coming out later today, will indicate if the economy will be able to achieve a soft landing or is headed toward a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan break down how the S&P 500 could react , depending on the number of jobs added for September. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: AI's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Port, U.S, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Gulf Coast
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy's on the track the Fed wants and they can follow the dot plot, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report in regards to the Fed's monetary policy, if there's a risk-on signal for equity markets, and much more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJP Morgan: India stocks “not appealing at the moment” due to valuationsJP Morgan Asset Management’s David Kelly cites the opportunities in Asian equity and debt markets following the U.S. Federal Reserve's 50 basis-point cut.
Persons: JP, David Kelly Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: India, U.S .
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with JPMorgan’s David Kelly, 3Fourteen’s Warren Pies and Neuberger’s Shannon SaccociaJPMorgan’s David Kelly, 3Fourteen’s Warren Pies and Neuberger’s Shannon Saccocia, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss consumer spending, market momentum and sentiment.
Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly, 3Fourteen’s Warren, Neuberger’s Shannon Saccocia JPMorgan’s David Kelly, Neuberger’s Shannon Saccocia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a lot of momentum in this economy, says JPMorgan’s David KellyJPMorgan’s David Kelly, 3Fourteen’s Warren Pies and Neuberger’s Shannon Saccocia, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss consumer spending, market momentum and sentiment.
Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly JPMorgan’s David Kelly, 3Fourteen’s Warren, Neuberger’s Shannon Saccocia
The consensus view is that lower rates will stave off a recession by stimulating economic growth through lower borrowing costs. The hidden danger of a double cutHowever, David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management warned that lower rates aren't an economic panacea. In fact, the chief global strategist thinks these cuts could, paradoxically, cause the economy to slow in the near term. Advertisement"The important thing to recognize is that cutting interest rates at the start doesn't stimulate the economy at all," Kelly said on CNBC. "There is a J-curve effect; it actually slows the economy because people begin to anticipate those lower rates, so they want to wait for lower rates."
Persons: , Jim Caron, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell, Sahm, Ronald Temple, Kevin Philip of, David Kelly, Kelly, what's, you've, Kelly isn't, it's, they've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Fed, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, CNBC, New Century Advisors, Lazard, Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors, JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's 50bps cut may send wrong message to equity markets, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Claudia Sahm, New Century chief economist; and Jim Caron, CIO of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to break down the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points and what it means for markets.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly, Claudia Sahm, Jim Caron Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Claudia Sahm , New, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Locations: Claudia Sahm ,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed 50 basis-point cut is a 'risk management' decision, says New Century's Claudia SahmDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Claudia Sahm, New Century chief economist; and Jim Caron, CIO of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to break down the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis- points and what it means for markets.
Persons: Claudia Sahm David Kelly, Claudia Sahm, Jim Caron Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Claudia Sahm , New, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Locations: Claudia Sahm ,
New York CNN —The American economy appears to be just hours away from a major milestone: The first interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve since Covid. Yet there remains an unusual amount of drama over the magnitude of that rate cut, with some in Washington calling for a supersized move. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren wants the Fed to slash interest rates at a pace rarely seen outside of a full-blown crisis. “It is clearly the time for the Fed to cut rates. For instance, in early 2008 the Fed slashed interest rates by three-quarters of a point or more on three occasions.
Persons: Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell, Warren, , ” Warren, Sheldon Whitehouse, John Hickenlooper, Powell, Bill Dudley, “ dawdling, Dudley, ” Dudley, panicking, David Kelly, ” Kelly, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Massachusetts Democratic, Sens, Wall, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNN, Democrats, Asset Management Locations: New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Trump policy that freaks out economists the most
  + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump wants to spend trillions of dollars on tax cuts. “It’s enormously protectionist and terrible economic policy,” said Holtz-Eakin, who served as an economic adviser to former President George H.W. The cost of the Trump tax cutsTrump has called for extending his signature 2017 tax cuts, which expire next year if no action is taken by Congress. Trump has argued that extending the tax cuts will boost the economy, create jobs and help families. The Trump campaign has not detailed significant spending cuts or tax hikes to offset these tax cuts.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Goldman, , ” David Kelly, Kelly, “ It’s, , ’ Trump, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, Holtz, George H.W, Bush, GOP Sen, John McCain, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Karoline Leavitt, they’ll, ” Leavitt, Trump’s, ” Harris, “ Donald Trump, ” Brian Nelson, Harris, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Penn, Penn Wharton, The Trump, CNN’s Katie Lobosco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Asset Management, CNN, America, New York Economic Club, American, GOP, Moody’s, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, US Customs, Louis Federal Reserve, Biden, Congress, Princeton University, University of Chicago, Harvard University, US Treasury Department, Penn Wharton Model, Social Security Locations: New York, United States, China, America
Kelly says the Fed needs to broadcast its confidence in the economy to soothe jittery markets. JPMorgan's David Kelly told Business Insider he sees a possibility for even deeper losses following the big rout. We do stand ready to cut rates as appropriate but we don't think there's a very urgent situation here," Kelly said. More importantly, cutting rates abruptly would potentially instill more fear about the economy among investors, Kelly said. And I don't think the Federal Reserve tells people that, or maybe they don't appreciate it themselves," Kelly said, adding, "It's a drag before it's a stimulus."
Persons: Kelly, JPMorgan's David Kelly, , David Kelly, Monday's, we've, Dow Jones Organizations: Fed, Service, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Reserve Locations: Japan
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