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☆ AI spending is in the crosshairs in a 'make-or-break' week that determines where Big Tech heads next
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) currently sits 11% off its highs. MAGS YTD mountain Magnificent Seven ETF performance This backdrop sets the tone for a "make or break week" coinciding with the Federal Reserve's July rate decision Wednesday, according to Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek. Now, more than 18 months after the launch of groundbreaking ChatGPT, Wall Street wants results. Some Wall Street analysts believe strong quarterly results may not be enough to reverse the pullback in tech shares. "My gut is that the tech earnings are going to come in better than people expect."

Persons: Morgan, Roundhill, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Jay Woods, Sundar Pichai, Deutsche Bank's David Folkerts, Baird's Ted Mortonson, Senyek, Rowe Price, Dominic Rizzo, CNBC's Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Freedom Capital, Deutsche, Tech, Fed, Trump

☆ Market vulnerabilities and a possible U.S. recession: Strategists give their cautious predictions for 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.

Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland

☆ It's Wall Street vs Wall Street as the recession debate rages on. Here's what David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach and 5 other experts have warned.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street experts are butting heads over the health of the economy, and what's to come. David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research president"Markets pricing in a 'soft landing'? Will they ever be in for a big surprise," the Rosenberg Research chief tweeted. "You look at the United States and it seems to me that we're still making this transition from expansion to recession," Rosenberg said. "We're referring to this phenomenon as a Cardboard Box Recession, because items that are made (manufacturing) and shipped (trade) tend to go in a box.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Jeff Gundlach, Clif Asness, —, Rosenberg, Will, hasn't, we're, Gundlach, Jeffrey Kleintop, Charles Schwab, Kleintop, Goldman Sachs, That's, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, DoubleLine Capital, CNBC, Fibre, Association, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Locations: United States

Below are the events, trends and topics investors expect to shape the outlook for emerging markets next year. "The economic downturns along with the aggressive monetary tightening and geopolitical and commodity shocks that induce them will be temporarily painful in financial and emerging markets," said David Folkerts-Landau, group chief economist at Deutsche Bank. Globally, the war has transformed energy markets and inflation pressures, food security and geopolitical risk perception - factors that are often more keenly felt in emerging economies. "There's not actually a lot of debt maturing next year," said Carmen Altenkirch, emerging markets sovereign analyst at Aviva Investors. 6/ TURKEY ELECTIONSPresident Tayyip Erdogan could face the biggest political challenge of his two decades in power as Turks head to the ballot box in the most high-profile vote in emerging markets.

☆ From Bank of America to Morgan Stanley, Wall Street giants are expecting stocks to crash more than 20% next year. Here's what they've been saying.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Three major Wall Street banks expect the S&P 500 to tank over 20% at some point next year. Here's what Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank say about what could drag stocks lower. For Bank of America, a Federal Reserve-induced liquidity crisis could put pressure on the S&P 500 stock index. Here's where the S&P 500 is headed, and why, according to the major banks. He added lower earnings will cause intense pain for larger-cap stocks, and not just tech stocks.

☆ The stock market will fall 25% when the looming US recession hits in mid-2023, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major stock markets will plunge 25% when a looming recession hits next year, Deutsche Bank says. Analysts also see earnings per share among S&P 500 companies falling to $195 in 2023 from $222 in 2022. After the Fed's rate hikes, the investment bank expects markets to recover by year-end 2023. "We see major stock markets plunging 25% from levels somewhat above today's when the US recession hits, but then recovering fully by year-end 2023, assuming the recession lasts only several quarters," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, wrote. Deutsche Bank also sees earnings per share among S&P 500 companies falling to $195 in 2023 from $222 in 2022.

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