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Americans shouldn't expect interest rate cuts to head their way anytime soon. Related stories"It may be bad, partly, because it is driven in part by uncertainty and fear and high interest rates holding back activity," Pollak added. "And if I had to bet, I bet that we will get two rate cuts, one in September and one in December." Some Democratic lawmakers have been pushing the Fed to cut rates and give Americans some breathing room, especially after the European Central Bank cut rates earlier in June for the first time in five years. "The Fed's decision to keep interest rates highs continues to widen the rate gap between Europe and the U.S, as the lower interest rates could push the dollar higher, tightening financial conditions," they wrote, adding: "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates."
Persons: there's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, It's, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, we're, David Kelly, Kelly, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, North America, Morgan Asset Management, Democratic, European Central Bank Locations: United States, Amsterdam, Sens, Europe
A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.
Persons: , That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management
Read previewHey, America, we totally understand if you're not feeling so great about the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. If you're interested in learning more about what's going on with the economy take a look at the charts below. Unemployment rates in the US have been lowThe unemployment rate did climb from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April, but that's still low. However, just because we aren't in a recession doesn't mean the economy is perfect.
Persons: , We're, Harris, David Kelly, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Gregory Daco, Kelly, Daco, Alemán, Raymond James doesn't Organizations: Service, Guardian, Business, Morgan Asset Management, Real Locations: America
Research shows that former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China did indeed raise prices on consumers and businesses — despite his claims otherwise. The study found tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump did not meaningfully contribute to inflation. “The new Biden tariffs, like the more extensive ones that Trump has promised, will worsen US inflation. It is fair to debate how much the Biden tariffs will impact inflation because they are not nearly as widespread as what Trump imposed and what Trump is promising if he’s reelected. Trump enacted sweeping tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, setting off a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Persons: Katherine Tai, Joe Biden’s, ” Tai, , Donald Trump’s, Tai, Angela Perez, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tai’s, “ Trump, ” Biden, , Alex Durante, Tai’s “, Maury Obstfeld, Biden, , Trump, he’s, ” Perez, White, Morgan, Daleep Singh, Jen Psaki, Jared Polis, ” Polis, Ed Mills, Raymond James, David Kelly, ” Kelly Organizations: New, New York CNN, US, White, Research, CNN, US International Trade Commission, , China, Tax, Obama, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Biden, Atlantic Council, Bretton, Committee, , Colorado Gov, Republicans, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, EVs, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s unanimous decision to leave rates unchangedJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to today’s Fed meeting leaving rates unchanged.
Persons: David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch, Federal, Fed
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's rate trajectory will be based on the economic data in Q2, says Citi’s Kristen BitterlyJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to today’s Fed meeting leaving rates unchanged.
Persons: Citi’s Kristen, David Kelly, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Fed
So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, , Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices won't be permanently higher unless there's more global economic growth, says JPM's KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if oil prices could rise further from today's levels, the stock market's next growth catalyst, and more.
Persons: JPM's Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.
Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL
Read previewAlthough US stocks have been all the rage this year, a top-performing fund manager remains convinced that the most compelling investing opportunities are in international equities. Its 80% gain over the past five years is more than double that of the STOXX Europe 600 and is six-fold above the 13% return of Vanguard's Total International Stock Index ETF (VXUS). The Brandes International Equity Fund has been in the top 10% of its category in the last 10 years, according to Morningstar, which includes a top-1% finish in 2023. AdvertisementOnce the fund manager finds stocks that fit this bill, he thinks more like a business owner than a stock trader. Of all the opportunities in international markets, Germain is especially drawn to four stocks across various countries and industries.
Persons: , Jeff Germain, Germain, David Kelly, Brandes, He's, " Germain, Royce Organizations: Service, Vanguard's, Stock, Business, Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes International Equity Fund, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Heidelberg, Embraer, Royce, Heineken Locations: German, Brazil, Britain
Read previewHistory says US stocks' idyllic start to the year is sustainable, as does the chief global strategist at $2.9 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management. Advertisement"The market has momentum, and so good times beget good times," Kelly told Business Insider in a recent interview. JPMorgan Asset Management"There is a certain amount of fluff in those valuations, and I think that is somewhat dangerous," Kelly said. JPMorgan Asset ManagementOutside equities, Kelly said investors should consider adding exposure to alternative assets like real estate and transportation. "The overall buffet table of investment opportunities is being expanded, even for individual investors," Kelly said.
Persons: , David Kelly, Kelly, David Rosenberg, Jon Wolfenbarger, Rosenberg, Kelly doesn't, it's, Kelly didn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bulls, Apple, JPMorgan, Management, Companies, Nikkei, P Transportation, Trust Nasdaq Transportation Locations: Truist, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump is once again warning the stock market is doomed unless voters return him to the White House. He went on to say a loss for him would spark “the largest stock market crash we’ve ever had.”But there is no evidence to support that claim. “This is just an encore presentation of what he said last time,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the stock market has generated higher annual returns when Democrats are in power. It’s true that Trump’s surprise victory in November 2016 helped spark an impressive rally in the stock market as investors bet on deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, ” Trump, , Brian Gardner, “ There’s, ” David Kelly, , Kelly, Joe Biden, Biden, Hogan, ” Sam Stovall, he’s, “ It’s, Dow, ” Kelly, Gardner, James Singer, CNN it’s “, ” Singer, Jerome Powell —, Powell, Jerome Powell, Greg Valliere, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, White, Trump, Asset Management, Dow, Riley, CFRA Research, GOP, , Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Biden, Republicans, Democrat, Research, , Republican, AGF Investments Locations: New York, Washington, Trump, China
On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.
Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, , Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan
JPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reigniting
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( )   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reignitingDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the S&P 500 reaching the $5,000 mark, whether this earnings season says something about equities, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisionJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.
Persons: David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed cuts come down to the labor market, says Morgan Stanley’s Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management head of North America investments, and Jim Caron, head of Macro Strategies for Global Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.
Persons: Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron David Kelly, Kristen, Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Citi Global Wealth Management Locations: North America
Read previewThe nation's central bank is gearing up to make its first big decision of 2024 — and while it likely won't be the interest rate cut many Americans are hoping for, it's set to bring them closer to that relief. The Fed hinted at how many interest rate cuts Americans can expect this year in its December Summary of Economic Projections. New labor market data out this Friday will show how employment looked at the start of 2024, and some labor market experts already think 2024 will see a cooler job market . That continuing strength in the labor market does represent a slowdown from the hot post-pandemic recovery in 2022. "The Fed has already signaled its willingness to cut rates, and the market has responded accordingly," the lawmakers wrote.
Persons: , it's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nick Bunker, would've, Greg McBride, David Kelly, Kelly, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Jacky Rosen, Sheldon Whitehouse Organizations: Service, Business, Federal, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Morgan Asset Management, Democratic Locations: Sens
Markets are closely monitoring Q4 earnings results, which began rolling out in mid-January, since they give much-needed clarity on the prior year while setting the tone for the year ahead. AdvertisementWhat to expect during the Q4 earnings seasonEarnings seasons often bring surprises, but there are also bankable bets. But we're going to be driven more by the macro, if we're excluding these mega-cap tech stocks." 3 sectors with boom-or-bust potentialWhile the strategists Business Insider spoke with didn't provide investing recommendations, several shared which sectors they're watching in Q4. Bianco believes the tech sector's earnings will rise over 20% this year.
Persons: , Matt Stucky, Stucky, David Kelly, UBS Josh Jamner, That's, Jamner, Carol Schleif, Schleif, there's, Anthony Saglimbene, David Bianco, Saglimbene, Bianco, Brad Klapmeyer, Klapmeyer, " Bianco, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, BMO's Schleif, Indrani De, De, she's, he'd, that's Organizations: Service, Business, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Asset Management, UBS, ClearBridge Investments, BMO Family Office, DWS, Macquarie Asset Management, FTSE Russell Locations: Americas
BNY Mellon Wealth Management's chief investment officer explained why stocks have limited upside. Sinead Colton Grant has hit the ground running in her new role as the chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. What to expect in the economy this yearThe theme of BNY Mellon Wealth Management's 2024 outlook report is "a healthy slowdown." However, Colton Grant acknowledged that there are serious discrepancies between how high- and low-income households experience the economy. 5 top places to invest nowBNY Mellon Wealth Management may be neutral on equities broadly, but it has a bullish overweight rating on US stocks.
Persons: Sinead Colton Grant, BNY, she's, BNY Mellon, Colton Grant, David Kelly, Colton, Kelly, Colton Grant's Organizations: BNY Mellon Wealth, BNY Mellon Wealth Management, BNY Mellon, BNY, JPMorgan Asset Management, Business, Mellon Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Mellon, Management, Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets Locations: BlackRock, Invesco
5 charts that explain why stocks took off last year
  + stars: | 2024-01-12 | by ( Krystal Hur | )   time to read: +4 min
Stocks ended on a high note last year, but were tested by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, banking turmoil, debt ceiling worries and war in the Middle East. Many early-year consensus predictions about what 2023 would bring — including a recession and several rate cuts — didn’t pan out. CNN spoke with five investors about the biggest lessons they learned and how they’ve helped shape their 2024 outlooks. Fundamentals have to start matteringThe S&P 500 index gained 24% last year despite an earnings recession, often defined as at least two straight quarters of corporate profit losses. Fourth-quarter earnings, which kick off on Friday with results from big banks, are expected to grow about 1% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Persons: Stocks, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, David Kelly, , Kelly, Yung, Yu Ma, Don’t, George Cipolloni, Wall, Leslie Thompson, don’t, Thompson, she’s eyeing, FactSet, , Amanda Agati Organizations: New, New York CNN —, CNN, Asset Management, Treasury, BMO Wealth Management, Penn Mutual Asset Management, Fed, Spectrum Wealth Management, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Companies, PNC Asset Management Locations: New York
Andrew Kelly | ReutersAfter years of unbridled consumer spending on everything from home improvement to dream vacations, some companies are now finding the limits of their pricing power. Nike last week lowered its annual sales growth forecast and unveiled plans to cut costs by $2 billion over the next three years. "Goods companies don't have the pricing power they did in the pandemic, and some in the hotel and travel [industries] — they don't have the pricing power they did in the immediate post-Covid," he added. Sales growth for companies in the S&P 500 is on track to average 2.7% this year, according to mid-December analyst estimates posted by FactSet. Consumer spending on apparel and groceries rose 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively, from the year-earlier period, according to the survey.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mills, Joe Cavaretta, David Kelly, FactSet, Kelly, isn't, airfare, John F, Bob Jordan, Jordan, Ohsung Kwon Organizations: FedEx, Reuters, Shipping, Airlines, Target, Nike, Spirit Airlines, Hasbro, Fort Lauderdale Hollywood International, South Florida Sun Sentinel, Tribune, Service, Getty, Florida Sun, Morgan Asset Management, FactSet, Mastercard, Starbucks, Airline, U.S . Department of Labor, Kennedy International, Southwest, CNBC, Detroit automakers, Toyota, Cox Automotive, Bank of America Locations: New York, speedier, Fort, South
Goldman Sachs researchers are projecting oil prices to jump nearly 20% next year. AdvertisementAs the holiday season approaches, drivers are experiencing a welcome respite at gas stations, but those savings will likely go away in the new year. Last week, West Texas Intermediate crude, a benchmark for oil prices, dipped to approximately $73 per barrel, a significant 20% drop from its late September peak of $94. "The big surprise of 2023 is stronger than expected non-OPEC supply growth, which we think will slow heading into 2024," Struyven said. And what the US economy doesn't need in the near future is Americans tightening their budgets after their summer of fun and the holiday spending season.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , GasBuddy, Daan Struyven, CNBC's, Dado Ruvic, Struyven, David Kelly, We're, Kelly Organizations: Service, West, AAA, OPEC, Reuters, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Biden, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Energy Department, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Morgan Asset Management Locations: West Texas, OPEC, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia
While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.
Persons: J.P, David Kelly, , Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business
Inflation cooled off in October
  + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | )   time to read: +4 min
Inflation cooled off in October based on new year-over-year data out Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index increased 3.2% year over year in October, less than the year-over-year increase of 3.7% in September. AdvertisementInflation cooled but is still above the Fed's 2% target per the year-over-year change in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, for October. The year-over-year increase in October was just less than the forecast of 3.3%, and the increase is less than the September's 3.7% year-over-year increase . AdvertisementThe food index didn't see as large an increase as the shelter index, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Persons: , David Kelly, Kelly, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Morgan Asset Management, PMI, Federal Reserve, Federal
But the cost of crude oil has been largely declining since the middle of October. The average for a gallon of gas in the United States, meanwhile, dropped to $3.37, according to AAA. This “steady, if slow” decline in gas prices, said an AAA spokesperson, may soon gain speed if oil prices continue their descent. They’re more concerned with economic weakness in China and an increase in oil production in the United States. In the first week of November, US crude oil production reached a new record of 13.2 million barrels per day.
Persons: ” David Kelly, , ” David Morrison, refiners, ” Craig Erlam, Brent, Chris Isidore, , Ted Decker, Refinitiv, Read, Homebuyers Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, Trade, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, . West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, Revenue, National Association of Realtors, Census Locations: New York, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, China, Iran, America, United
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