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☆ Trump's trade and tax policies are the new hot-button topic dividing economists and market experts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Experts hold drastically different views, creating a new hot-button topic that will continue to be debated up until the election in November. The camp staunchly opposed to Trump's policiesThe base argument against Trump's fiscal platform is that tariffs are, by nature, inflationary. AdvertisementIn a recent op-ed for the Financial Times, he cited the "benign" impact Trump's first-term tariffs had on the US economy. Looking ahead to a new term, Yardeni thinks Trump's most extreme pursuits will likely be watered down by Congress. AdvertisementRepublican donor Kyle Bass — who serves as the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital Management — has taken a different tact in his support of Trump's fiscal agenda.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump's, Trump, he's, David Kelly, Larry Summers, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Steve Eisman, Kyle Bass —, Hayman Capital Management —, Joseph Stiglitz, Biden Organizations: Service, Donald Trump White House, Business, Trump, House Republicans, Foundation, New York Times, Peterson Institute, Yardeni Research, Financial Times, Congress, CNBC, Hayman Capital Management, Oxford Economics Locations: China, It's

☆ Things are setting up for two rate cuts this year, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThings are setting up for two rate cuts this year, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his take on the recent move in the 2-year Treasury, how much yields factor in U.S. equity exposure, and much more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Treasury

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his take on the recent move in the 2-year Treasury, how much yields factor in U.S. equity exposure, and much more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Treasury

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at record highs after dovish June jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The June jobs report showed 206,000 jobs added to the economy, slightly above estimates. "To us, the message is the labor market is slowing," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said of the June jobs report. AdvertisementUS stocks closed at fresh record highs on Friday after a dovish June jobs report. Both indexes finished the week at record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has yet to hit its record high reached in May. AdvertisementThe April jobs report was also revised lower to 108,000 jobs added that month, down from the initial reading of 165,000.

Persons: Tom Lee, —, Steven Blitz, Lombard, JPMorgan's David Kelly Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Fed, GlobalData

☆ The stage is set for 2 rate cuts this year, but investors need to be careful adding more exposure to the stock market, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recent data sets the Fed up to cut interest rates twice this year, JPMorgan's David Kelly said. The bank's chief global strategist predicted Fed rate cuts were coming in September and December. Yet, he warned that stocks are expensive, and investors should be wary of adding exposure at high valuations. The chief global strategist predicted central bankers would begin dialing back interest rates at the September policy meeting, with another cut likely in December. But rate cuts shouldn't be the signal for investors to flock to the stock market, Kelly said.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, —, David Kelly, That's, Kelly, We've, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Asset, CNBC

☆ Inflation will be in focus in the week ahead as stocks attempt to sustain all-time highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.

Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal

☆ Biden digs his heels in while Trump secures another win
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at President Joe Biden showing no signs of giving up his reelection campaign while former President Donald Trump secured a win from the Supreme Court . AdvertisementBiden's campaign has been in full-blown crisis mode after the president's disastrous debate against former President Donald Trump last week. AdvertisementMeanwhile, Trump secured a big win in his immunity case . The Supreme Court ruled that former presidents don't get absolute immunity from criminal charges related to actions under the scope of the presidency, but they do get some. 3 things in techStefani Reynolds/BloombergBig Tech gets a big win from the Supreme Court.

Persons: —, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, he's, Biden, Allison Joyce, Getty, Tyler Le, he'd, it'd, John L, Dorman, Biden's, Manuel Balce Ceneta, Jacquelyn Martin, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, Harris, isn't, Trump, don't, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Alyssa Powell, David Kelly, Jonathan Xiong, Blackstone, Keith Lerner, Truist, Stefani Reynolds, OpenAI, It's, Gen Zers, Kevin Costner's, Kevin Costner, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Michelin, Business, The New York Times, Biden, Democrats, Trump, Justice, Getty, Citadel, Bloomberg Big Tech, ChatGPT, Atlantic Locations: Manhattan, Asia, Millennium, New York, London

☆ Trump's trade and immigration policies are an 'elixir for stagflation' that could tip the US into recession, JPMorgan strategy chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewDonald Trump's pledge to raise trade barriers and deport immigrants could be policy shocks that trigger a recession, JPMorgan's David Kelly told Bloomberg TV. On trade, Trump has announced plans for a universal 10% duty on all imports to the US, and has separately touted higher tariffs as a replacement for some income taxes. As for immigration, the Republican candidate has promised to carry out the largest deportation program in US history. "If you took his word on immigration, the economy would come to a halt because of deportation of unregistered immigrants or illegal immigrants."

Persons: —, Donald Trump's, JPMorgan's David Kelly, Trump, he's, you've, Kelly, Larry Summers, Adam Posen, that's Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Republican, Peterson Institute, Peterson

☆ Inflation unexpectedly cools off as the Fed decides its next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Meanwhile, the gas index rose 2.2% from May 2023 to this past May, higher than the 1.2% year-over-year increase in April. The food index rose 2.1% for the 12 months ending May after it was consistently seeing year-over-year increases of 2.2%. More specifically, the food at home index rose 1.0% for the 12 months ending May after a 1.1% increase. Meanwhile, the food away from home index rose 0.4% in May from the preceding month and 4.0% year over year in May. Inflation measures like the CPI suggest US inflation is still too high although these rates look a lot better than back in 2022.

Persons: —, it's, Elizabeth Renter, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Index, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, CPI, BLS, Housing, Morgan Asset Management

☆ The Fed's next decision will likely mean Americans are going to wait a lot longer for any interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Americans shouldn't expect interest rate cuts to head their way anytime soon. Related stories"It may be bad, partly, because it is driven in part by uncertainty and fear and high interest rates holding back activity," Pollak added. "And if I had to bet, I bet that we will get two rate cuts, one in September and one in December." Some Democratic lawmakers have been pushing the Fed to cut rates and give Americans some breathing room, especially after the European Central Bank cut rates earlier in June for the first time in five years. "The Fed's decision to keep interest rates highs continues to widen the rate gap between Europe and the U.S, as the lower interest rates could push the dollar higher, tightening financial conditions," they wrote, adding: "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates."

Persons: there's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, It's, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, we're, David Kelly, Kelly, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Reserve, Business, North America, Morgan Asset Management, Democratic, European Central Bank Locations: United States, Amsterdam, Sens, Europe

☆ It finally looks like the US economy is sticking its soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A soft landing is on the horizon, too — or already here depending on who you ask — and recent data reinforces that. AdvertisementThere has been a ton of moderation in this rate particularly when comparing recent changes to those seen in 2022, another sign pointing to a soft landing. AdvertisementThe soft landing might already be hereDavid Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, believes the US has already achieved a soft landing. "To me, a soft landing is when the unemployment rate has basically hit its full-employment level, and the inflation rate is gradually coming down to a rate that's acceptable," Kelly said. Advertisement"In other words, a fairly comfortable soft landing with occasional turbulence," Draho added.

Persons: —, That's, it's, Joseph Briggs, Goldman Sachs, Briggs, Nick Bunker, Bunker, David Kelly, Kelly, Jason Draho, Draho, It's Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, UBS, Morgan Asset Management, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Hey, America, here's what's actually going on with the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewHey, America, we totally understand if you're not feeling so great about the economy. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. If you're interested in learning more about what's going on with the economy take a look at the charts below. Unemployment rates in the US have been lowThe unemployment rate did climb from 3.8% in March to 3.9% in April, but that's still low. However, just because we aren't in a recession doesn't mean the economy is perfect.

Persons: —, We're, Harris, David Kelly, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Gregory Daco, Kelly, Daco, Alemán, Raymond James doesn't Organizations: Service, Guardian, Business, Morgan Asset Management, Real Locations: America

☆ Biden’s trade chief walks back comments contradicting Biden on tariffs and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Matt Egan | Kayla Tausche | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Research shows that former President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China did indeed raise prices on consumers and businesses — despite his claims otherwise. The study found tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump did not meaningfully contribute to inflation. “The new Biden tariffs, like the more extensive ones that Trump has promised, will worsen US inflation. It is fair to debate how much the Biden tariffs will impact inflation because they are not nearly as widespread as what Trump imposed and what Trump is promising if he’s reelected. Trump enacted sweeping tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, setting off a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

Persons: Katherine Tai, Joe Biden’s, ” Tai, —, Donald Trump’s, Tai, Angela Perez, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tai’s, “ Trump, ” Biden, “, Alex Durante, Tai’s “, Maury Obstfeld, Biden, ”, Trump, he’s, ” Perez, White, Morgan, Daleep Singh, Jen Psaki, Jared Polis, ” Polis, Ed Mills, Raymond James, David Kelly, ” Kelly Organizations: New, New York CNN, US, White, Research, CNN, US International Trade Commission, “, China, Tax, Obama, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Biden, Atlantic Council, Bretton, Committee, ”, Colorado Gov, Republicans, Asset Management Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, EVs, Europe

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s unanimous decision to leave rates unchangedJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to today’s Fed meeting leaving rates unchanged.

Persons: David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch, Federal, Fed

☆ Fed's rate trajectory will be based on the economic data in Q2, says Citi’s Kristen Bitterly
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's rate trajectory will be based on the economic data in Q2, says Citi’s Kristen BitterlyJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to today’s Fed meeting leaving rates unchanged.

Persons: Citi’s Kristen, David Kelly, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Fed

☆ Why the Fed keeping rates higher for longer may not be such a bad thing
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

So the question is, are we going to have issues if rates remain higher for longer?" But financial markets, despite a recent 5.5% selloff for the S&P 500, have largely held up amid the higher-rate landscape. Higher rates can be a good signHistory tells differing stories about the consequences of a hawkish Fed, both for markets and the economy. Higher rates are generally a good thing so long as they're associated with growth. Futures market pricing implies a fed funds rate of 4.32% by December 2025, indicating a higher rate trajectory.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Mandel Ngan, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Paul Volcker, David Kelly, Kelly, —, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester Organizations: Federal Reserve, Financial, Afp, Getty, LPL, Fed, Asset Management, Market, Cleveland Fed, European Union Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Oil prices won't be permanently higher unless there's more global economic growth, says JPM's Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil prices won't be permanently higher unless there's more global economic growth, says JPM's KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if oil prices could rise further from today's levels, the stock market's next growth catalyst, and more.

Persons: JPM's Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ Make these 4 moves to capitalize on one of the best investing opportunities in 50 years, according to a top-1% fund manager who's dominated in the last decade
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-06 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewAlthough US stocks have been all the rage this year, a top-performing fund manager remains convinced that the most compelling investing opportunities are in international equities. Its 80% gain over the past five years is more than double that of the STOXX Europe 600 and is six-fold above the 13% return of Vanguard's Total International Stock Index ETF (VXUS). The Brandes International Equity Fund has been in the top 10% of its category in the last 10 years, according to Morningstar, which includes a top-1% finish in 2023. AdvertisementOnce the fund manager finds stocks that fit this bill, he thinks more like a business owner than a stock trader. Of all the opportunities in international markets, Germain is especially drawn to four stocks across various countries and industries.

Persons: —, Jeff Germain, Germain, David Kelly, Brandes, He's, " Germain, Royce Organizations: Service, Vanguard's, Stock, Business, Brandes Investment Partners, Brandes International Equity Fund, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morningstar, Heidelberg, Embraer, Royce, Heineken Locations: German, Brazil, Britain

☆ 'Good times beget good times': JPMorgan Asset Management's global strategy chief explains why expensive US stocks can keep rising — and 4 top places to invest now
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Read previewHistory says US stocks' idyllic start to the year is sustainable, as does the chief global strategist at $2.9 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management. Advertisement"The market has momentum, and so good times beget good times," Kelly told Business Insider in a recent interview. JPMorgan Asset Management"There is a certain amount of fluff in those valuations, and I think that is somewhat dangerous," Kelly said. JPMorgan Asset ManagementOutside equities, Kelly said investors should consider adding exposure to alternative assets like real estate and transportation. "The overall buffet table of investment opportunities is being expanded, even for individual investors," Kelly said.

Persons: —, David Kelly, Kelly, David Rosenberg, Jon Wolfenbarger, Rosenberg, Kelly doesn't, it's, Kelly didn't Organizations: Service, Asset Management, Business, JPMorgan Asset Management, Bulls, Apple, JPMorgan, Management, Companies, Nikkei, P Transportation, Trust Nasdaq Transportation Locations: Truist, Europe, United Kingdom, Japan

☆ The whole world is reaching all-time highs. Here’s what’s driving it
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

On the surface, it may seem simple — global stocks are rallying, so there must be one universal driver, right? When this happens, the yen should strengthen and improve shareholder value in Japanese stocks, Arone said. "All of that gives you the ingredients you need to push stocks higher — not only U.S. stocks, but global stocks — in the next 12 months or so," he said. "I think that international stocks — Japan, Europe — have more room to go. Similar to Kelly, Kleintop recommended a more broad-based approach to playing this global rally.

Persons: It's, Charles Schwab's, Jeffrey Kleintop, they've, David Kelly, Michael Arone, Kelly, Arone, —, Kleintop, Fred Imbert Organizations: U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, CNBC, Nvidia, Asset Management, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Tokyo Stock Exchange, State, — Locations: United States, U.S, Europe, Japan, Korea, China, Asia, America, Eastern Europe, — Japan

☆ Trump warns the market will crash if he loses. Investors just laugh
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump is once again warning the stock market is doomed unless voters return him to the White House. He went on to say a loss for him would spark “the largest stock market crash we’ve ever had.”But there is no evidence to support that claim. “This is just an encore presentation of what he said last time,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial. In fact, the stock market has generated higher annual returns when Democrats are in power. It’s true that Trump’s surprise victory in November 2016 helped spark an impressive rally in the stock market as investors bet on deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, ” Trump, ”, Brian Gardner, “ There’s, ” David Kelly, “, Kelly, Joe Biden, Biden, Hogan, ” Sam Stovall, he’s, “ It’s, Dow, ” Kelly, Gardner, James Singer, CNN it’s “, ” Singer, Jerome Powell —, Powell, Jerome Powell, Greg Valliere, Trump’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, White, Trump, Asset Management, Dow, Riley, CFRA Research, GOP, “, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Biden, Republicans, Democrat, Research, —, Republican, AGF Investments Locations: New York, Washington, Trump, China

☆ JPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reigniting
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's David Kelly: We don't see inflation reignitingDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the S&P 500 reaching the $5,000 mark, whether this earnings season says something about equities, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Fed cuts come down to the labor market, says Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed cuts come down to the labor market, says Morgan Stanley’s Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, Kristen Bitterly, Citi Global Wealth Management head of North America investments, and Jim Caron, head of Macro Strategies for Global Fixed Income at Morgan Stanley, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.

Persons: Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron David Kelly, Kristen, Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan Asset Management, Citi Global Wealth Management Locations: North America

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisionJPMorgan’s David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen Bitterly and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed decision to keep rates unchanged.

Persons: David Kelly, Citi’s Kristen, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch

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