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☆ Global equity returns are disappearing as U.S. stock market rockets higher
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Global stocks have largely fallen as the U.S. has rallied, the result of a confluence of factors. The fund gauges how global stocks minus U.S. equities are performing, and it features names such as Taiwan Semiconductor , Tencent and Novo Nordisk . The broad market index was marginally higher on the day and has soared nearly 24% year to date. The dollar index has jumped more than 2% in November, and has climbed nearly 5% year to date. .DXY 3M line Dollar index The underperformance of global stocks might provide some temptation to dive in at a time when they appear undervalued.

Persons: hasn't, Donald Trump, Nick Colas, MSCI ACWI, Colas Organizations: White, DataTrek Research, ETF, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tencent, Novo Nordisk, ACWX Locations: U.S

☆ When will this Trump-fueled bull market approach bubble territory? Watch this indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-12 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The CBOE Volatility Index , known on Wall Street as the VIX, helps traders track when a market rally is actually unhealthy, said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. Monday's close for the VIX around 15 "is a healthy sign" for the temperature of the market as it advances, Colas wrote to clients. To put it succinctly: "Rallies built on an elevated VIX signal a bubble," he wrote. That's a lesson market participants learned, during the dot-com bubble of the mid- to late-1990s, he said. In the current bull market, dating back to the fourth quarter of 2022, however, the VIX has been largely "well behaved," Colas argued.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Donald Trump, —, Monday's, Colas, That's, Jessica Rabe, Trump Organizations: Research, U.S

☆ 3 reasons why Warren Buffett is shunning stocks — including his own
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Warren Buffett isn't hot on stocks right now, and the 94-year-old CEO's latest moves reflect that. The cash hoard has grown as Berkshire pared down stakes in key holdings such as Apple and Bank of America . It's also raked in more than $10 billion from steadily selling Bank of America shares since the summer. Berkshire Class A stock trades at 22.6 time earnings. Lastly, Colas noted that Buffett may have "have identified one or more large acquisitions and is raising capital for those purchases."

Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, It's, Buffett, didn't, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Greg Abel, hasn't, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Berkshire, Nike, Disney, Apple, Bank of America, of America, DataTrek, Oracle, Berkshire Class Locations: Berkshire, Omaha

☆ History shows Nasdaq bull market could return more than 10% next year, barring a shock
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Nasdaq Composite index finally made a new all-time high on Friday, its first since July. But history shows there may be more than 10% upside ahead as stocks enter the third year of a bull market, according to DataTrek statistics. DataTrek co-founders Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe said they "remain bullish" on U.S. large-cap tech stocks because the average third year of a bull market has brought an increase of just 4.4% for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the firm's data shows. The data, too, shows that another positive year for Nasdaq is no sure-fire bet. A two-year bull market after a losing year, the pattern we are currently in since the 2022 debacle, has continued into a third year just 60% of the time since 1971.

Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Jessica Rabe, What's Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: U.S, East, Europe

☆ The Nasdaq still has room to run, says DataTrek Research's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Nasdaq still has room to run, says DataTrek Research's Nick ColasNick Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the look ahead for the tech sector.

Persons: DataTrek, Nick Colas Nick Colas Organizations: Nasdaq, Research

☆ Conflicting economic signals are causing confusion in the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Bond market investors are having trouble figuring out an economy that looks good from 30,000 feet, but less so closer to the ground. Whether it's payrolls, gross domestic product or retail sales, or a host of other measures, growth looks solid, at the very least. On Wall Street, the general view was of concern: The Beige Book "showed no material improvement in a generally bleak outlook," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote. However, if growth deteriorates, as the Beige Book indicates it has, that likely would push the Fed towards more reductions. "Despite recent stronger-than-expected data on U.S. employment, retail sales, and consumer inflation, the Fed's latest Beige Book signals a still weakening economy."

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Kathy Bostjancic, Peter Boockvar, Jerome Powell, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Citigroup, Nationwide, Bleakley Financial, DataTrek

☆ Nvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia CEO's comments partly behind market comeback, DataTrek's Nicholas ColasDataTrek's Nicholas Colas joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss macro outlooks ahead of rate cuts, what will drive the next rally, how to position, and more.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nvidia

☆ Markets get nervous over high core inflation and see the Fed cutting slowly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high core inflation virtually cemented the likelihood of a quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve, which historically has avoided larger moves unless absolutely necessary. Shelter inflation is putting a floor under the CPI and likely keeping the Fed from reducing interest rates by more 25 basis points. "History back to 1990 supports the idea that an initial Fed rate cut of 50 basis points signals an imminent recession (2001 and 2007). "Their first cut will almost certainly be 25 basis points," Colas said. But the Fed, which targets inflation at 2%, prefers core readings as a better longer-term gauge for inflation.

Persons: Dow Jones, —, Nick Colas, Jerome Powell, Colas, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, CPI, Fed, Traders, Open Market, PCE

☆ Wall Street still loves the ‘Magnificent Seven’
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Don't get it twisted: Wall Street's love affair with the "Magnificent Seven" is alive and well. That's a greater gain than what strategists forecast for the S & P 500 as a whole — a gain of 11.9%. This dynamic is seen through the relative outperformance of the equal weighted S & P 500 versus its market cap weighted counterpart. .SPX RSP 1M mountain SPX vs RSP in past month Despite this rotation, Wall Street analysts still believe staying with megacap technology stocks are the better bet. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning, Stifel upgraded Starbucks to buy from hold after naming Brian Niccol its new CEO.

Persons: Jessica Rabe, DataTrek, Rabe, Stifel, Brian Niccol Organizations: Research, Big Tech, RSP, Wall Street Locations: That's

☆ The yen carry trade unwind: A big complication for global markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In its simplest form, the yen carry trade has investors borrowing cheap yen to invest in higher yielding assets, often currencies. For example, because there is not a central source to track currency trades, we have no idea how big the yen carry trade is. The yen is rising, and that is making the yen carry trade less profitable. If the yen goes from 155 to 145, which is where it traded Monday, it will take $68,965 to repay that 10 million yen (10 million yen divided by 145 = $68,965). One positive sign: the ETF to watch is the Invesco Japanese Yen ETF (FXY), which tracks the price of the Japanese yen, had volume six times normal yesterday.

Persons: That's, Nicholas Colas Organizations: Nikkei, Street Journal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, U.S, U.S ., Yen ETF Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ Don't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't rush to buy today, says DataTrek's Nicholas ColasNicholas Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the market sell-off and volatility.

Persons: DataTrek's Nicholas Colas Nicholas Colas Organizations: Research

☆ Why the Fed is being blamed for the historic stock-market plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.

Persons: —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington

☆ Energy stocks are only real hedge in an oil shock crisis: DataTrek Research's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnergy stocks are only real hedge in an oil shock crisis: DataTrek Research's Nick ColasNick Colas, DataTrek Research co-founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss what he calls summertime surprises in the market.

Persons: Nick Colas Nick Colas Organizations: Energy, Research

☆ Nvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick Colas
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNvidia not overvalued despite low forward P/E and market cap, says DataTrek's Nick ColasSean Myers, assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School, and Nicholas Colas, co-founder at DataTrek Research, join CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss Nvidia's valuation, how much weight to give P/E ratios, and more.

Persons: Nick Colas Sean Myers, Nicholas Colas, CNBC's Organizations: Nvidia, Wharton School, DataTrek Research

☆ Why we care so much about the Dow, the stock market’s dumbest index
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Dow Jones Industrial Average is, at best, an imperfect barometer of stock market activity among a narrow band of very large US companies. It’s clunky, and too limited in scope for any Wall Street pros to pay serious attention to it. “Mention ‘the Dow’ and, to most people, that means the stock market,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, in a note to CNN. It’s just an index that tracks the stock market activity of 30 large US companies, from Amazon to McDonald’s to the Walt Disney Company. Market capitalization measures the total value of a company on the stock market.

Persons: Dow, ”, Hogan, It’s, “ Dow Jones ”, “, Nick Colas, you’re, ” Colas, Daniel Alpert, wasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Colas, I’ve, ” Alpert Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Dow, Riley Financial, CNN, Walt Disney Company, Westwood Capital, Standard Oil, US Steel, Microsoft, Apple Locations: New York, Amazon, Silicon

☆ Meme stocks extend short-squeeze rally to massive 100%+ gains with GameStop and AMC leading the way
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

GameStop and AMC Entertainment extended their gains on Tuesday to more than 100%. AMC Entertainment took advantage of the massive rally by selling shares to raise capital. AdvertisementWhat began with a Sunday evening tweet from Keith Gill, AKA Roaring Kitty, has materialized into a massive short-squeeze rally that has taken shares of GameStop and AMC Entertainment up 74% and 78% on Monday alone. Before the opening bell, shares of GameStop and AMC soared as much as 158% and 132%, respectively. The rallies have pushed a massive short-squeeze in the stocks, not unlike the 2021 rally that caught Wall Street short sellers off guard and sank a prominent hedge fund.

Persons: Keith Gill, —, Wall, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: GameStop, AMC Entertainment, Service, AMC

☆ Today's 'pain trade' is a rapidly rising market catching many investors off-guard
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A rapidly rising market has caught a lot of investors off-guard. He loves to watch what he calls the "pain trade," the move in the markets that would catch the largest number of active investors off-guard. Surveying Monday's late-day rally on the floor, Anderson looked up at the NYSE boards and said, "the pain trade is up." The S & P 500 is now within 1.4% of its old closing high of 5,254 from March 28th. The STOXX Europe 600, essentially the S & P 500 of Europe, is also less than 1% below an historic high.

Persons: Tim Anderson, Anderson, It's, Nicholas Colas, DataTrek, Ingersoll Rand, Parker, Hannifin, it's, Alec Young, MAPsignals.com Organizations: MND Partners, NYSE, Nasdaq, Utilities, Reuters, Southern Company, EatoN Corp Locations: Europe, industrials

☆ 'Sell in May and go away' is a catchy adage, but probably not a good idea
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's not just that it has been a down month (down 3.0% for the S & P 500, breaking a 5-month win streak). However, weaker does not mean down. The S & P, even in the weakest five months, was still up almost 2%. The bottom line: market timing is always a tricky affair. Many of these timing maxims could be trumped by an even better one: "It's time in the market that matters, not market timing."

Persons: It's, Nicholas Colas, Jeff Hirsch, it's Organizations: Dow, Stock Locations: It's, DataTrek

☆ Would the Fed really hike rates here? This is what would have to happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Though it was unthinkable just a short time ago, the question of what it would take the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further is gaining increasing attention. New York Fed President John Williams faced questioning Thursday about hiking and said he doesn't expect that to happen, but noted that it's always an option. "Basically, if the data were telling us that we would need higher interest rates to achieve our goal, then we would obviously want to do that." Making the same mistake as the 1970s central bank — hiking rates to fight inflation, then cutting prematurely and allowing inflation to return — is a sensitive issue for the Powell Fed. Chances are low, for now So far, only Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has given any credence to the notion of raising rates.

Persons: John Williams, it's, Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Esther George Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Summit, DataTrek, CME, Kansas City, CNBC Locations: Washington, Kansas

☆ The market again has adjusted its view on rate cuts, with as few as two now expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"While investors seem to be anxiously awaiting easing monetary policy, the current environment does not quite scream 'rate cuts!'" That sentiment has manifested itself lately in market pricing. That same day, the Labor Department will release the CPI report, which is expected to show the headline inflation rate rising 3.4% in March on a year-over-year basis, per Dow Jones. This is nonetheless "the right time to cut rates," wrote David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "What has underpinned this market is the promise of a series of rate cuts including March, and now it has dwindled to just a few rate cuts.

Persons: Glenmede, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, Nicholas Colas, Colas, Ed Yardeni, nonfarm, Quincy Krosby, Krosby Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Labor Department, Asset Management, Fed, DataTrek, Yardeni, LPL

☆ Nvidia's terrible Friday gives traders a preview of what a momentum unwind would look like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.

Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi

☆ S&P on pace to score fourth month of consecutive gains. History tells us what could come next
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 is ending February with a gain of almost 5%. S & P 500: Four big months November: up 8.9% December: up 4.4% January: up 1.6% February: up 4.6% The November gain of 8.9% was one of the 20 best monthly performances in history. The S & P has advanced about 5% since passing the old January 2022 historic high, which it crossed on Jan. 19, this year. Put another way: the S & P has recovered all the bear market losses from the old high in January 2022 to the bear market bottom in October 2022, and added another 5%. "Yet it also offers encouragement that no post-recovery selloff saw the start of a new bear market before rebounding and proceeding onto additional new highs."

Persons: Steve Starker, Todd Sohn, Eli Lilly, Nicholas Colas, Sam Stovall Organizations: Nvidia, P, Technology, Services, Care, Broadcom, Communication Services, Meta, Health Care, Merck, Depot, Costco, JPMorgan, Mastercard, Berkshire Hathaway, Research Locations: BTIG

☆ Wall Street's favorite recession gauge has been flashing for 16 months, but the other key ingredient of a downturn is nowhere to be seen
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-28 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.

Persons: —, Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait

☆ Citi is betting big on high-profile executives to turn things around
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the reshuffling of top executives at two of the biggest US banks . Viswas Raghavan, JPMorgan's top dealmaker, has joined Citi as its head of banking and executive vice chair, reporting directly to CEO Jane Fraser. The move is a big deal, but even more shocking since Raghavan was just promoted to be the sole head of JPMorgan's deals business. Since high interest rates aren't stopping stocks from reaching record highs, cuts might not come at all this year , according to analyst Jim Bianco. Market vet Ed Yardeni said interest rates are actually in a sweet spot for stocks, similar to the late '90s.

Persons: Viswas Raghavan, Jane Fraser, Raghavan, Filippo Gori, Doug Petno, Insider's Reed Alexander, Patrick T, Fallon, Fraser, Merrill Lynch, Andy Sieg, Warren Buffett, Warren, Berkshire Hathaway's, Jim Bianco, Ed Yardeni, Gemini, Demis Hassabis, Long, Alyssa Powell, they've, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Citi, JPMorgan, Warren, Warren Buffett REUTERS, Chip, Berkshire, Buffett, Research, Wall, BI, Google, eBay Locations: Bronx, Gori, Rivian, New York, London

☆ Millennials Won the Stock Market Boom, Proved They're Good Investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It turns out the Robinhood crowd was onto something when they piled into the stock market during the pandemic. As of 2019, people under 40 held 4.9% of total US wealth even though they’re 37% of the population. People over 54, who make up a similar share of the population, held 71.6% of total wealth. Nearing the end of 2023, under-40s controlled 6.7% of total wealth, while those over 54 had 72.8%. Now, the challenge is to try to keep at it, get some more luck in the stock market and, God willing, their own homes.

Persons: —, Young, Millennials, Zers, they’re, “, Nick Colas, ”, Colas, Ernst & Young, It’s, millennials, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, DataTrek, Ernst &, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America

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