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☆ Americans running out of unemployment benefits and part-time jobs at record levels point to a recession coming, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The job market is flashing signs the US is still headed for a hard-landing, Danielle DiMartino Booth says. The forecaster pointed to workers rolling off unemployment benefits, while part-time jobs have soared. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The veteran forecaster and QI Research founder pointed to continued signs of weakness in the US job market, zooming in on a few key areas that are flashing signs of trouble. Booth said that more workers who once qualified for unemployment insurance are now rolling off of their benefits.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, Booth Organizations: Consumers, Service, QI Research, Workers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business

☆ The market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino Booth
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is in for a 'rude awakening' about the U.S. GDP print: Danielle DiMartino BoothDanielle DiMartino Booth of QI Research says a soft-landing scenario for the U.S. economy is unlikely and the Fed cut interest rates more than expected because it expects negative revisions to the GDP print.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: QI Research Locations: U.S

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. may already be in a "plain vanilla recession": Danielle DiMartino BoothSignificant job losses and bankruptcy filings over the past year signal a "plain vanilla recession," according to Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill Intelligence. In this episode of "The Bottom Line," CNBC explores the former Dallas Fed advisor's views on the state of the U.S. economy, the navigating high of inflation and interest rates, globalization and a weakening labor market.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: Quill Intelligence, CNBC, Dallas Fed Locations: U.S

☆ America may already be in a 'plain vanilla recession,' says Danielle DiMartino Booth
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Emily Rabbideau | In Emilyrabbideau | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. may already be in a "plain vanilla recession," according to Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist for Quill Intelligence and a former advisor to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. DiMartino Booth explained how a weakening job market and increasing Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings signal that the U.S. is already in a recession. DiMartino Booth suggested that "for the next six to 18 months, AI is going to … feel like a weapon of mass destruction." DiMartino Booth also said the Fed isn't entirely to blame for the high levels of inflation explaining that the "interest rate policy is a blunt instrument." Watch the video above to learn more about what Danielle DiMartino Booth has to say about the state of the U.S. economy, including why the nation may already be in a recession, ways AI is changing the workplace and how the economy can work best on a global scale.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — Organizations: Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Social media has gotten so bad that America's top doctor is intervening
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In today's big story, we're looking at the surgeon general suggesting warning labels for social media . The big storyA solution for socialsAnna Moneymaker/Getty Images; Chesnot/Getty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BISocial media has gotten so bad that the country's top doctor is intervening. AdvertisementIn his piece, Murthy said social media is a key culprit of the mental health crisis young people are facing. Generative AI adds more fuel to the misinformation fire social media platforms have been battling for years. Many of them are making fast use of social media platforms like TikTok and investing heavily in AI.

Persons: —, Anna Moneymaker, Chelsea Jia Feng, Vivek Murthy, Geoff Weiss, Murthy, It's, Katie Notopoulos, isn't, Adam Kovacevich, Dan Whateley, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Instagram, Larry Fink, Dave Calhoun, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, US, The New York Times, of Progress, Getty, Meta, Bank of America, AIM, Apple, Apple Watch, Adobe, Justice, Marketing's, District of Columbia, DC, Boeing Locations: China, Schonfeld, New York, London

☆ The US economy is headed into a corporate bankruptcy cycle that will spike unemployment, veteran forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Booth predicted that the number of large bankruptcies would climb to 25 by the end of June, surpassing the peak of large corporate bankruptcy filings during the pandemic. "When you have these large bankruptcies, liquidations, and what have you, you do have a loss of income. Meanwhile, the economy has lost around a million full time workers over the last 12 months, Booth noted. 10% of small business owners said labor costs were their "single most important problem," according to the latest Small Business Optimism Index. Booth has previously argued that the economy is already in a recession due to weakness in the labor market.

Persons: —, Danielle DiMartino Booth, bankrupcies, Booth, David Lin, Gray Organizations: Service, QI, P, Business, Companies, Challenger Locations: America

☆ Where’s inflation really heading? Traders and economists are using this real-time inflation gauge to get ahead of the curve
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The inflation rate the government arrives at also impacts how much you receive in Social Security benefits and likely is a factor in determining your pay. The government also has a much longer history of producing inflation reports with extremely thorough standards. Like PCE and CPI, Truflation assigns relative importance values to categories to mirror how an average consumer’s income is allocated. That’s why small increases in the cost of housing can end up having big impacts on the overall inflation rate. How Truflation data is being usedWall Street traders were the first group drawn to Truflation, Rust said.

Persons: Truflation, Hilton, Stefan Rust, Rust, “, ” Danielle DiMartino Booth, Richard Fisher, Booth Organizations: New, New York CNN, Index, Federal, Social Security, PCE, CPI, Amazon, Walmart, Nielsen, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, CNN, Dallas Fed, QI Research Locations: New York, Zillow

☆ The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York

☆ These 3 metro regions still haven't recovered from the pandemic recession as Wall Street debates when the next downturn will strike
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

More than a quarter of US metros are still recovering from COVID-era job losses, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported. Today's job market amplifies fears of another recession, which some experts say could hit as soon as this year. AdvertisementAs analysts clash over when the next recession will befall the US, large swaths of the country are still bogged down in the previous downturn. The Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkBut this trend is especially distinct in the Northeast, a region that's home to particularly impacted metros. By this indicator, a recession started in October, confirmed further by accelerating job erosion, Danielle DiMartino Booth said.

Persons: —, Danielle DiMartino Booth, it's, Frances Donald, Donald, We're, Gary Schilling Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Service, US metros, QI, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: COVID, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Rust Belt, California, Hawaii, New Orleans, Honolulu, San Francisco, Cleveland , Detroit, Pittsburgh, Northeast, New York City, New York

☆ Apple wants to give the iPad a boost
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The tech giant's event will reportedly showcase a new family of… iPads and iPad accessories. But Apple's event , which kicks off at 10 a.m. EST, is looking to give the iPad a boost. iPhone sales have noticeably dipped, which is why you're hearing Apple tout its "services" business , writes BI's Peter Kafka. And the new product Apple wants you to be excited about — the Vision Pro — hasn't lived up to the hype. a16z joins the Big Tech "fake work" debate.

Persons: —, Tyler Le, they're, iPads, Antonio Villas, Boas, BI's Peter Kafka, Peter, hasn't, Katie Notopoulos, Wall, Lauren DeCicca, Tim Cook, Katie, aren't, I'd, we'll, I'm, Alyssa Powell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, James Devaney, Roger Kisby, Jack Dorsey's, Elon, Dorsey, Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, OpenAI, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, a16z, Emily Sundberg, Andreessen Horowitz, David Ulevitch, Vladimir Putin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Apple, Google, Getty, US Treasury, National Bureau of Economic Research, Images, Penske Media, Microsoft, Tech, Paramount, Berkshire, Big Tech, Walt Disney Company Locations: BREIT, New York, London

☆ A 'proper' economic downturn is looming, which could trigger steep rate cuts as soon as this year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV that a sharper Fed pivot is ahead. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementMarkets are right to price in a Federal Reserve policy pivot but should brace for a rate-cutting cycle that's sharper than expected, economist Frances Donald told Bloomberg TV. "We believe we are heading into a proper downturn that will require a proper easing cycle." So we're not exiting the period in which rate hikes become really impactful in the economy," she said.

Persons: Frances Donald, —, Donald, We're, Danielle DiMartino Booth Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Manulife Investment Management

☆ The US may already be in recession as job cuts accelerate, research CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy may already be mired in recession, Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. Downside labor revisions and rising job losses indicate a downturn has hit, the QI Research CEO said. AdvertisementThe US is already mired in recessionary downturn, and rising job losses prove it, veteran forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth told Bloomberg TV. AdvertisementBy that standard, the rule was triggered in October of last year, according to recently published labor revisions through the third quarter of 2023, indicating job losses of 192,000. Other analysts have also projected rising recession risk, hand-in-hand with a labor market fallout.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, there's, it's, Booth, Goldman Sachs, payrolls, David Rosenberg Organizations: Bloomberg TV, Downside, QI, Service, Bloomberg, Fox Business

☆ The US economy is already in a recession, and it's following the same path as China by becoming reliant on debt, veteran forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US economy already looks like it's in a recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. The chief strategist of QI Research pointed to weakness in the job market, with layoffs rising. She said that puts the economy in a precarious state, especially with US debt-taking already looking similar to China's. The chief strategist of QI Research has warned for months that the US economy is already in a recession, despite Wall Street's upbeat outlook for a soft-landing. But a downturn is already evident in the weakening job market, Booth said, pointing recent downward revisions in monthly job growth figures.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, —, Booth Organizations: QI, Service, QI Research Locations: China

☆ Layoffs could spike as one labor-market indicator says a recession is already here, market forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US may already be in a recession, according to Danielle DiMartino Booth. A steady rise in the unemployment rate above cycle lows signals a recession, she said. Other forecasters have said the unemployment rate could reach 5% by year-end. AdvertisementThe US could see a rise in layoffs, and there's one indicator in the labor market that suggests a recession is already here, according to veteran market forecaster Danielle DiMartino Booth. The Quill Intelligence Research chief strategist pointed to worrying signs in the labor market, despite headline job growth remaining strong.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, — Organizations: Service, Quill Intelligence Research, Business Locations: —

☆ QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth talks the labor market and impact of inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailQI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth talks the labor market and impact of inflationHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Brian Sullivan, “ Organizations: CNBC

☆ An overlooked group of borrowers will be hit hard as student loan repayments resume, former Fed economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Hannah Getahun | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Our experts answer readers' student loan questions and write unbiased product reviews (here's how we assess student loans). download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementMillennials with homes are an overlooked group in the student loan conversation, one economist argues. One group of borrowers will face a unique set of challenges in the face of a return to student loan debt repayments, which resume Sunday, a former Fed economist told The Wall Street Journal. However, they will be the group that cannot access any student loan relief.

Persons: —, It's millennials, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Dion Rabouin, Booth Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Dallas Fed

☆ CPI: Consumer prices rose by 3.2% annually in July, picking up for the first time in 13 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Minneapolis CNN —For the first time in more than 12 months, the pace of consumer price hikes accelerated on an annual basis. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.2% for the year through July, up from June’s 3% annual increase, according to data released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% from June and was up 4.7% from the year-ago period. July is the the fourth consecutive month that annual core CPI has eased, and the 4.7% rate landed 0.1 percentage points below consensus expectations. Shelter prices rose 0.4% month on month and were up 7.7% for the year ending in July.

Persons: “ Don’t, ”, Julia Pollak, Joe Biden, ” Biden, “ We’ve, Kurt Rankin, Dow, “, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Tamara Charm, Brandon Bell, Danielle DiMartino Booth, DiMartino Booth, — CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, CPI, Federal Reserve, PNC, Nasdaq, RSM US, CNN, San, Services, “, McKinsey, Quill Intelligence, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Locations: Minneapolis, June’s, San Francisco, Austin , Texas

☆ Wall Street keeps booming, but not everyone's convinced the bull market will last. Here's 6 voices of doom and gloom on US equities.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here's six bearish views on the sizzling rally in equities, from Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg. From Warren Buffett to David Rosenberg, there's a chorus of market commentators throwing cold water on the fiery stock rally. That's given investors even more incentive to pile into equities, adding fuel to the stock rally. Here's 6 bearish stock market calls amid the stock market's breathless climb. Yet too many signs point to a severe stock market crash.

Persons: Warren Buffett, David Rosenberg, it's, there's, Dow Jones, Oppenheimer, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Rosenberg, Tom Lee, Lee, Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor, John Hussman, Hussman, Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, DiMartino Booth Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Buffett, Rosenberg Research, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Investors are making the same mistake they made during the dot-com and housing bubbles, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are so excited about stocks that they're missing the bigger, grimmer economic picture. Danielle DiMartino Booth said the complacency reminded her of the dot-com and housing bubbles. She pointed to a surge in bankruptcies and mounting pressures in the bank and real estate sectors. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. DiMartino Booth has made it clear she's in the latter camp for now.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, We're, BNN, DiMartino Booth, Biden, Sam, Jeremy Siegel, Paul Krugman, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, QI Research, BNN Bloomberg, Nasdaq, Dallas Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Fed is secretly stress testing the US economy against nightmare scenarios
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

When asked how the Fed plans for the worst case scenarios on the geopolitical front, he first responded in Fedspeak. At every Fed policy meeting, he said, “our staff works up six or seven or eight alternative simulations,” he said. The market impact: The policy scenarios considered by the Fed are quite sensitive. That’s likely why when Powell was asked about the scenarios the Fed had most recently considered, he stayed mum. They’re posting elaborate TikToks where they pretend that the McDonald’s Grimace shake has killed them, of course.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell didn’t, ”, they’re, Joe Brusuelas, Stacey Tevlin, Ben Bernanke, Philippa Dunne, “, Danielle DiMartino Booth, That’s, Powell, “ I’m, Joe Biden, Biden, “ Bidenomics, Elisabeth Buchwald, Bryan Mena, Read, McDonald’s, Scottie Andrew, Grimace’s, Ronald McDonald, Andrews, it’s, Matthew Prince, “ It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, European Central Bank, Federal, RSM, “, Fed, Bloomberg, TLR, QI Research, Federal Reserve, Chapman University, CNN Locations: New York, Portugal, Fedspeak, China, Chicago, America, California, ”

☆ Working Americans have bigger life expenses to worry about than egg prices: QI's DiMartino Booth
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWorking Americans have bigger life expenses to worry about than egg prices: QI's DiMartino BoothDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.

Persons: DiMartino Booth Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Daniel Greenhaus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth and Daniel GreenhausDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, and Daniel Greenhaus, Solus Alternative Asset Management managing director, join 'Last Call' to break down the latest round of CPI numbers and discuss how those numbers may play into the Fed's next rate hike decision.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Danielle DiMartino Booth, Daniel Greenhaus Organizations: Research, Asset Management

The Federal Reserve enacts monetary policies to stabilize prices and maximize employment in the U.S. economy. These dueling goals are known as the dual mandate. For example, if prices are too hot, the Fed may vote to raise interest rates to influence a decrease in borrowing. Other experts argue that the dual mandate remains key to keeping the U.S. economy safe and stable. Watch this video to see how the Fed tries to strike a near-impossible balance to promote both parts of the dual mandate.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Thomas Hoenig, David Wessel Organizations: QI Research, CNBC, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Hutchins, Brookings Institution Locations: U.S

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, and Jan Kniffen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, and Jan KniffenDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, Gerald Storch, Storch Advisors CEO, and Jan Kniffen, J. Rogers Kniffen WWE CEO, join 'Last Call' to discuss the recent stock slides in luxury retail, the state of the high-end consumer, and more.

Persons: Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, Jan Kniffen Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jan Kniffen, J, Rogers Kniffen Organizations: Research, Storch Advisors, Rogers Kniffen WWE

☆ Consumers are stressed at every level, says fmr. Toys "R" Us CEO Gerald Storch
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are stressed at every level, says fmr. Toys "R" Us CEO Gerald StorchDanielle DiMartino Booth, QI Research CEO, Gerald Storch, Storch Advisors CEO, and Jan Kniffen, J. Rogers Kniffen WWE CEO, join 'Last Call' to discuss the recent stock slides in luxury retail, the state of the high-end consumer, and more.

Persons: Gerald Storch Danielle DiMartino Booth, Gerald Storch, Jan Kniffen, J, Rogers Kniffen Organizations: Consumers, Research, Storch Advisors, Rogers Kniffen WWE

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