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☆ Gold and some non-dollar currencies start to shine, but it's not all about de-dollarization
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

AdvertisementThe amount of gold holdings in global reserves has doubled in just over five years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysis. "As the yellow metal carries no credit or counter-party risk, some deem it as being better insulated from financial sanctions, particularly those from the emerging world," wrote UBS' Czerwonko. Advertisement"The situation in competing jurisdictions is also dire; in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man can remain king," wrote Czerwonko. AdvertisementSimilarly, Bloomberg Intelligence said said a Wednesday report that a potential second Trump term could hasten a global currency regime change. "Any title toward isolationism in a Trump second term, such as altered US attitudes toward its role in NATO and international affairs would spur de-dollarization," wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts.

Persons: —, Alejo Czerwonko, Czerwonko, Trump Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg Intelligence, Trump, NATO Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Swiss, Americas

The economy is likely already in recession and is expected to contract again next year. Shortly after being sworn in as economy minister, Massa in August 2022 pledged to stop printing money to fight inflation. "Markets will likely prefer a Milei victory simply because he is more credible on delivering the fiscal adjustment." "Every investor understands that the macroeconomic adjustments that Argentina needs will inevitably translate into short-term pain." For investors, Argentine stocks traded in New York (.MIAR00000PUS) have been a beacon of hope, up near 15% year to date.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Luis Robayo, Pilar Tavella, Alejo Czerwonko, Massa, Carlos de Sousa, UBS's, JPMorgan's Diego Celedon, Celedon, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: por la Patria, La Libertad, University of Buenos, Law School, Global, Peronist, Barclays, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Argentina, Monetary Fund, Itau, IMF, Emerging, UBS Global Wealth Management, Vontobel Asset Management, Argentine, UBS, Thomson Locations: Argentina, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires Argentina, New York, Argentine, outperforming

If it cannot secure fresh funds before an approaching deadline, Argentina risks defaulting on repayments to the IMF. Analysts say the central aim of these economic adjustments is to signal to the IMF that Buenos Aires is committed to the program. The left-wing administration has been locked in negotiations with the IMF for months over whether to front-load tranches of the $44 billion program. Both parties said on Sunday that an agreement on the fifth IMF review was close, but not yet finalized. Reporting by Lucinda Elliott in Montevideo, Anna-Catherine Brigida in Buenos Aires, Rodrigo Campos in New York.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Eyeing, Marina dal, EcoGo, Alejo Czerwonko, Yeyati, Lucinda Elliott, Catherine Brigida, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina de, Karin Strohecker, Catherine Evans Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economy, Peronist, IMF, Reuters, Emerging, UBS, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Buenos Aires, Argentina, refinance, Washington, Beijing, Montevideo, Anna, New York, Jorgelina de Rosario, London

☆ A South American currency union? Don't hold your breath
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That came after the leaders had touted a "common South American currency" on Sunday and officials told the Financial Times the tender could even be called the "sur" and eventually look to bring in other countries around South America. "It has failed to achieve simpler integration goals than that of a common currency." He called the idea of a currency union a "fantasy." Currency union talk was just a distraction, she said. Todd Martinez, a director at Fitch Ratings' sovereigns group focused on Latin America, said the two countries appeared to be unlikely partners to form a successful currency union, given their diverging economies.

REUTERS/Adriano MachadoSAO PAULO/LONDON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazilian equities were higher in choppy trade on Monday, a day after thousands of supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed government buildings in the capital, echoing the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in Washington. On Friday, both had performed better after Lula said the economy may grow while government finances are kept in check. On Monday hundreds of Brazilian police in riot gear and some on horseback amassed at an encampment of Bolsonaro supporters near Brasilia's army headquarters. "I think the situation will quickly normalize," said Cristian Maggio, head of portfolio strategy at TD Securities in London. "Yet, it is an event worth keeping an eye on, as it may not be fully over just yet."

[1/2] Supporters of Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro are pictured through broken glass as they hold a demonstration against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 8, 2023. REUTERS/Adriano MachadoMEXICO CITY/SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazilian assets may be hit by fresh volatility on Monday after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed key government buildings, echoing the U.S. Jan. 6 insurrection of 2021, analysts said. Ricardo Lacerda, founder and CEO of Brazilian investment bank BR Partners (BRBI11.SA), said he expects markets to react with volatility in the short term, especially on Monday, given the higher institutional risk. But Komura expects the markets to recover by the end of the week considering a strong institutional reaction against the rioters. While large sections of the Brazilian banking industry has tended to back Bolsonaro given his free market credentials relative to Lula's Workers' Party, the sector's main industry association roundly condemned Sunday's violence.

☆ Analysis: Peru markets take in political drama as investors focus on fundamentals
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Peruvian sol currency and dollar bond prices recovered early losses after President Pedro Castillo was removed in an impeachment trial following his attempt to dissolve Congress. The sol remains one of the few emerging market currencies with gains against the U.S. dollar so far this year. "So much political uncertainty is never welcome, yet the reason why markets have historically shrugged off political developments in Peru has to do with the fact that the country's fundamentals are decently strong." The sol fell over 2% against the dollar at its session low of 3.8898 before recovering slightly to trade down 1.4% at 3.8625 per dollar in early afternoon trading. Vice President Dina Boluarte was sworn as president through 2026 and the first woman to lead the Andean nation.

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