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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCribstone Strategic Macro founder discusses outlook for the Iran-Israel conflictMike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, discusses the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
Persons: Mike Harris Organizations: Cribstone Locations: Iran, Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. risks being perceived as an active player in Israel-Hamas conflict, says analystMike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, explains "what's dangerous about the U.S. visit" to Israel.
Persons: Mike Harris Organizations: Cribstone Locations: Israel
Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the leaders that congratulated Erdogan on his win on Monday, calling him a "dear friend," according to the Kremlin. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia August 5, 2022. Putin, in his congratulatory message Monday, praised Erdogan's efforts to "conduct an independent foreign policy," according to his spokespeople. The outlook is mixed among political and economic analysts inside and outside of Turkey whether Erdogan is bad news for the future of NATO. "Putin clearly wants NATO to fragment, and Erdogan in charge increases the likelihood of NATO fragmenting," Harris said after the election's first round in mid-May.
Since neither candidate won more than 50% of the vote, however, the election will go to a runoff on May 28. They also reveal that despite Turkey's current economic turmoil, tens of millions of Turks still see Erdogan as their only viable leader. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters garden on May 15, 2023 in Ankara, Turkey. Still, Kilicdaroglu's 44.9% of the vote is notable as the highest any opposition candidate ever received, said Orcun Selcuk, an assistant professor of political science at Luther College in Iowa, on Twitter. "The opposition clearly did not meet the expectations but it would be a misjudgment to say that opposition coordination failed.
Turkey was 'uninvestable' until now, strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTurkey was 'uninvestable' until now, strategist saysMike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, says anyone who went with "naked long Turkey" before the election results was "basically taking a view on the polls," which tend to be "really erratic."
The Turkish lira sank close to another record low with Turkey's presidential election heading for an unprecedented runoff, with one analyst forecasting further weakness for the currency over the short term. "Unfortunately it looks like [what] up to 49% of Turks have voted for is an economic crisis ... The YSK confirmed Monday afternoon that the presidential election would indeed go to a runoff on May 28.. Neither 20-year incumbent Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu has so far cleared the 50% threshold needed to secure an outright victory. The currency was trading at 19.66 against the greenback as of 1 p.m. London time on Monday.
Turkey is expected to head to the polls on Sunday. In the event of a victory by Erdogan, it's "highly likely the Turkish lira collapses within months," the founder of advisory firm Cribstone Strategic Macro Mike Harris told CNBC. "Ultimately the lack of confidence in investment will mean that the Turkish Lira will probably be among the worst performing currencies in the world for some time," he said. Turkey's monetary policy prioritizes the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than assuaging inflation. Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it.
He came to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, and was celebrated in the first decade of the new millennium for transforming Turkey's economy into an emerging market powerhouse. But recent years have been far less rosy for the religiously conservative leader, whose own economic policies have triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Now, given a recent downturn in support for Erdogan, some fear he may play dirty to ensure his hold on power. The stakes are high for the entire country and, more broadly, global geopolitics – and the mood on the ground is tense. Mustafa Kamaci | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"I'm very concerned that [Erdogan] may deploy underhanded tactics, cheating and even violence," Ibish said.
One major emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners LLP, remains bullish despite the earthquake disaster and economic problems. "When it comes to investing in Turkey, we still believe it's a viable place to invest," Mobius said. Mobius did note the glaring issue of Turkey's earthquake preparation, which may soon come to haunt Erdogan's election chances. NATO and Turkey's powerful role on the global stageInternationally, Turkey's future affects the war in Ukraine, given Erdogan's role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday.
Erdogan has lost control of the narrative, analyst says
  + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailErdogan has lost control of the narrative, analyst saysMike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, says that "in a strange way is a healthy thing because when he's in control of the narrative he can do some nutty things."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. is paying a 'Powell tax' for Fed's misunderstanding of inflation, says strategistMike Harris, founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, says the U.S. economy is paying the price for the Federal Reserve's misunderstanding of inflation, describing the current picture as "super disturbing."
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