Callie Cox: The biggest risks include whether the Fed can get inflation down, and whether we enter a recession. The job market and corporate earnings are the two catalysts that make me think we can avoid those risks. CC: The Fed will be more responsive to what's happening in the job market, because the job market directly impacts inflation. Services inflation — think rent, haircuts, insurance prices — is still growing at a 7% clip annually, which is way too high in the Fed's mind. And the kicker here is that services inflation is the type of inflation that the Fed can best control through the job market.

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