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Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

Periods of high inflation would offset those when inflation was low as occurred between the financial crisis and the pandemic. Those concerns may not matter anymore if the pandemic has driven inflation and interest rates chronically higher. Speaking at a Boston Fed labor market conference in November, Kohn said the new framework showed the risks of not keeping inflation at bay to begin with. "Probing" for maximum employment "can't ignore...inflation risks," Kohn said, calling for a return to a strategy disavowed in the last review. "I think preemptive tightening is best-practice central banking, and I hope they return to allowing that."

Persons: Joshua Roberts, Jerome Powell, There's, Miesha Williams, Powell, Charles Evans, Evans, Fed, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Donald Kohn, Kohn, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Spelman College, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Chicago, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta

Yellen will tour a Livent Corp (LTHM.N) facility in Bessemer City, North Carolina, that processes lithium hydroxide, a key ingredient in electric vehicle batteries. The plant near Charlotte is doubling its capacity due to increased demand for electric vehicles spurred by consumer tax credits of up $7,500 approved in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. These include $142 billion in EVs and batteries and $71 billion in clean energy manufacturing, and she attributed much of the investment to tax credits in the inflation reduction act. The Biden administration in coming days is expected to release new guidance on the levels of Chinese content that EV batteries can have and still qualify for IRA tax credits. It will take time for this to fade and for people to feel the benefits of higher wages, he added.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Yellen, Biden, Donald Trump, Larry Sabato, we're, Sabato, David Lawder, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: . Treasury, U.S, Livent Corp, Midwest, EV, University of Virginia's Center, Politics, Thomson Locations: North Carolina, Bessemer City , North Carolina, Charlotte, EVs, Argentina, Canada, U.S

BESSEMER CITY, North Carolina, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday she believes the U.S. economy does not need further drastic monetary policy tightening to stamp out inflationary expectations and was on track to achieve a "soft landing" with strong employment. "We don't need that now," Yellen said. "I believe the signs are very good that we will achieve this soft landing with unemployment stabilizing more or less we're where it is in this general vicinity, and growth slowing to a sustainable level. So my hope is that Americans gradually will see that things are getting better," Yellen said. Reporting by Howard Schneider, writing by David Lawder, editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Yellen, Howard Schneider, David Lawder, Chris Reese Organizations: BESSEMER CITY, . Treasury, Federal, Thomson Locations: North Carolina, U.S

"Inflation rates are moving along pretty much like I thought," Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish and influential voice at the central bank, told the American Enterprise Institute think tank on Tuesday. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. Additional Fed rate increases remain a possibility if upcoming data includes an unexpected resurgence of price pressures, he said. But even Bowman, who like Waller is among the Fed's most hawkish officials, stopped short of outright calling for a further increase in the policy rate. New inflation data will be released on Thursday, and policymakers will also have a fresh monthly jobs report and other data in hand before they gather next month.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Bond, Waller's, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Waller, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Institute, Fed, Spelman College, Utah Bankers Association, Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta, Salt Lake City

[1/3] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. So far, he said at a Boston Fed labor market conference earlier this month, measures like the employment-to-population ratio largely have not behaved differently for key racial groups, for women versus men, or among those with different education levels. Research has since tended to suggest that there may be untapped pools of labor that only become available when the job market is tight - an argument for keeping monetary policy looser than not. The labor market recovery so far has been "remarkably equitable," she said. Pandemic-era programs threw a safety net under many families, and the tight job market that has since developed helped many get a foothold, Rouse said.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers, Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, quartile, Chris Wheat, Cecilia Rouse, Joe Biden, Rouse, what's, we're, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Economic Equity, St, Louis Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Blacks, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Workers, Reuters Graphics, of Economic Advisers, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, joblessness

The minutes will likely include the "superficially hawkish rhetoric" that rates might still move higher, Citi analysts wrote on Sunday in a preview of the release. But "we continue to think that Fed officials are most likely done raising rates this cycle." "Inflation does seem to be settling," Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Fox Business on Monday. But he also felt it was likely to remain "stubborn, and that makes the case for me for being higher for longer." "What I would be looking for is sustained evidence" of inflation in steady decline, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said last week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Susan Collins, Collins, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Citi, Fed, Richmond Fed, Fox Business, Boston, Thomson Locations: U.S

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. Collins joins a growing set of Fed officials who have started preaching patience in considering any further rate hikes. But, she said, "there's been some promising evidence of inflation coming down," with goods price increases moderating, and shelter inflation likely to ease as well. There has been less progress on services inflation, Collins said, adding "I don't take off the table the possibility" that rates may need to rise again. I remain optimistic that we can bring inflation down in a reasonable amount of time without requiring a large increase" in unemployment, she said.

Persons: Susan Collins, Ann Saphir, Collins, there's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Reserve Bank of Boston, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Rights BOSTON, Boston Federal, Fed, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

Research prepared for a Boston Federal Reserve labor market conference found that whether driving for Uber to make ends meet or taking piecework jobs in retirement, casual contract workers sometimes don't consider themselves "employed" or even a part of the labor force. The research involved reexamining the detailed responses to a New York Fed survey of "informal work" from 2015 through 2022. Other research looked at how job training and policies towards employing those with a criminal record might help. Their research found many gig workers want additional hours of formal employment, suggesting more untapped labor supply. "And the higher levels of activity and participation can benefit those brought into the labor market, contributing to a vibrant economy that works for all."

Persons: Mike Segar, Uber, Anat Bracha, Mary A, Burke, Bracha, rehashed, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins, Collins, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights BOSTON, Federal, Boston Federal Reserve, Hebrew University Business School, Boston Fed, Fed, New, Labor, Boston, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, Jerusalem

But the steady ebbing of inflation hasn't translated into good news for either President Joe Biden or the Federal Reserve when it comes to public opinion. They're just going up at a slower rate," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week when asked at a research conference about common public misconceptions. Inflation expectations have fallen, according to a New York Fed survey but remain well above the central bank's 2% target. Both Waller and Fed Governor Lisa Cook took note of the public mood last week in similar comments about the expectation for prices to fall, which they don't frequently do. Reuters GraphicsBut if inflation readings continue to show a slowdown, the Fed could put more weight on sustaining the strength of the job market.

Persons: Joe Biden, They're, Christopher Waller, That's, Biden, Jeff Jones, Waller, Lisa Cook, Derek Tang, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Democratic, Gallup, Reuters Graphics, New, FOCUS, Biden, Thomson Locations: U.S, shutdowns

The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey of holiday food prices out Wednesday shows the full spread will run a party of 10 about 4.5% less in 2023 than in 2022. Her analysis, in fact, and the evolution of the farm bureau's Thanksgiving meal prices are a micro-version of the larger pandemic inflation story that households, elected officials and the Federal Reserve have been grappling with. The good news: The pace of change may remain slow going forward, with supply problems now largely sorted out and recent producer price data pointing to modest food inflation ahead. According to the farm bureau turkey prices are likely headed even lower after their survey. "Consumers who have not yet purchased a turkey may find additional savings in the days leading up to Thanksgiving," the organization said in a news release.

Persons: Betty Resnick, Resnick, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: American Farm Bureau, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Federal, AAA, airfares, Consumers, Farm Bureau, Labor Department, Thomson

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The fight to restore price stability "has a long way to go," the Fed chair said. Going forward, "it may be that a greater share of the progress in reducing inflation will have to come from tight monetary policy restraining the growth of aggregate demand," Powell said. "Supply shocks that have a persistent effect on potential output could call for restrictive policy to better align aggregate demand with the suppressed level of aggregate supply," he said. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S

"But I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates." The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury bond has risen roughly a percentage point since the summer, breaching the 5% level late last month before dropping in recent days to its current level around 4.64%. The Fed has not raised its policy rate since July. Cook did not comment on her specific view of the Fed's policy rate, focusing instead on an overview of financial stability issues. In her overview of financial stability, Cook said she felt that the banking system had weathered the stresses of last spring, and "remains sound and resilient overall."

Persons: Lisa DeNell Cook, Ken Cedeno, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Governors, Federal Reserve System, Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, Duke University, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Washington ,, U.S

While more than half of banks reported tightening business lending standards in the second quarter, just 35% said they cranked down further in the third quarter, with about 62% keeping standards the same. Demand for commercial and industrial loans weakened most among small firms, with more than half of banks saying credit demand had fallen among firms with annual sales of less than $50 million. About 39% of bank loan officers said loan demand had fallen among larger firms in the third quarter, compared to nearly 60% in the second quarter. For households, 86% of loan officers said they had kept standards for home mortgages about the same in the third quarter, though 12% said standards had gotten tighter. Just over 5% of banks said they had tightened standards in the second quarter.

Persons: Banks, Daniel Silver, Morgan, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

The monthly data does comes with a footnote: The headline job gains of 150,000 were depressed by a United Auto Workers strike. But even accounting for that the number was close to the 183,000 monthly pace of job growth sustained for the 10 years before the pandemic, from 2010 to 2019, and to that extent looked "normal" after years of outsized job gains. The pace of annual wage growth eased down to 4.1% in October in a continuing decline, while the month-to- month increase of 0.2% annualizes to around 2.4%, within the Fed's comfort zone. If labor force growth is coupled with an easing of open jobs, it could show a job market moving closer to balance. But if consumption remains strong and drives still-high numbers of openings, then a stall in labor force growth could reignite wage pressures.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

For inflation to durably return to the Fed's 2% target, it "is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some further softening in labor market conditions," Powell said. There is evidence the labor market is cooling, Powell said, with some important measures approaching levels seen even before the pandemic. Those include new geopolitical risks to the economy from the "horrifying" attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant Hamas group, Powell said. "Persistent changes in financial conditions can have implications for the path of monetary policy," Powell said, with higher market-based interest rates, if sustained, doing the same job as Fed rate increases. "We cannot yet know how long these lower readings will persist, or where inflation will settle over coming quarters," Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Dan Burns, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Economic, of New, Fed, Hamas, Federal, U.S, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, of New York, Israel

Describing that anticipated outcome while keeping open the possibility of future rate increases will be one challenge Powell faces. Another will be discounting speculation about the prospect of rate cuts or changes to other aspects of Fed policy, such as the ongoing reduction of the central bank's balance sheet. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is just about six-tenths of a percentage point below the Fed's policy rate; when the gap between the two shifts from negative to positive is when monetary policy gets perhaps its truest test. Recent data on balance don't fully back the Fed's view of a gently slowing economy and steadily easing inflation. "Assuming the economy keeps growing ... the Fed will get back to hiking," Blitz said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Larry Meyer, Meyer, Krishna Guha, Powell's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, U.S ., Economic, of New, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Evercore ISI, Hamas, U.S . House, Graphics, TS Lombard, Thomson Locations: U.S . Congress, of New York, Israel, Palestinian, Washington, U.S

That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation, and let the central bank "watch and see" if its own policy rate needs to rise again or not. We will see how those higher rates feed into what we do on policy in the coming months." Waller's comments added weight to similar statements this week by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Still, Waller offered some of the most optimistic reads yet on the path of inflation. "We're finally getting very good inflation data," he said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, We're, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, Republican, Wisconsin, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Utah

According to the minutes, "several participants" felt that "the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels." For now, "all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time" until it is clear inflation "is moving down sustainably toward its objective." The release on Thursday of the consumer price index report for September could add to the impetus for the Fed to remain on hold. Waller said that if recent month-to-month inflation trends continue, it would mean "we're pretty much back to our target." Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Treasury, U.S . House, Investors, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Utah

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

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