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Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
Those hopes were reinforced by other data on Thursday showing the labor market gradually easing. Though wages remain elevated, the pace of increase has slowed from earlier in the year as the labor market eases. Personal consumptionINFLATION COOLINGInflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index was unchanged in October after rising 0.4% in September. Stripping out housing, the core PCE price index edged up 0.1% after gaining 0.3% in September. Still, the labor market is cooling in tandem with overall demand in the economy.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome, Powell, Conrad DeQuadros, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Brean, Commerce Department's, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Fed, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, New York, outlays, U.S
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low. There were 1.50 job openings for every unemployed person in September, slightly up from 1.49 in August and way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2. Data for August was revised lower to show 9.497 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.610 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.250 million job openings in September. Job openings dropped 43,000 in federal government and there were 41,000 open positions in the information industry.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Conrad DeQuadros, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Treasury, Reuters, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit's Big, Ford Motor, General Motors, Chrysler, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York
In addition, the jump in housing starts partially recouped the decline in August. The rebound in homebuilding probably reflected permits approved several months ago before mortgage rates broke above 7%. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, increased 3.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 963,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said. Single-family starts rose in the Midwest, West and the densely populated South, but plunged 19.0% in the Northeast. Though permits are a leading indicator, economists cautioned against being too optimistic about homebuilding prospects, citing the soaring mortgage rates and souring builder sentiment.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, homebuilding, homebuilders, Conrad DeQuadros, Christopher Rupkey, Colin Johanson, Lucia Mutikani, Dan Burns, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Brean, Commerce Department, Data, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, Realtors, Barclays, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, homebuilding, New York, Midwest, West, Northeast, U.S
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, edged up 0.1% last month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the core PCE price index would climb 0.2%. In the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.9%. It was the first time since June 2021 that the annual core PCE price index was below 4.0%. In the 12 months through August, the PCE price index advanced 3.5% after gaining 3.4% in July.
Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Bing Guan, David Russell, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Brean, Reuters, University of Michigan, Consumers, REUTERS, Treasury, Financial, BMO Capital Markets, Retailers, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, SoHo, New York City, San Francisco
As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in July, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Still, employment growth would be more than the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. "This (job growth) would be one more piece of evidence that would be consistent with that, but that also depends a lot on the upcoming inflation data."
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, it's, Brian Bethune, Nonfarm, payrolls, Conrad DeQuadros, Dean Maki, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Boston College, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Federation of Television, Radio Artists, Yellow Corp, Brean, Point72, Management, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Stamford , Connecticut
That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooled in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.51 job openings for every unemployed person in July, compared to 1.54 in June. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings. State and local government education job openings declined by 62,000 and there were 27,000 fewer federal government vacancies. Reuters GraphicsDeclining job openings are likely to be mirrored by slower job growth in August.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Jeffrey Roach, Christopher Rupkey, Scott Anderson, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Midwest, Reuters Graphics, LPL Financial, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Northeast, West, Wyoming, Charlotte , North Carolina, Stocks, San Francisco
That was reinforced by a survey from the Conference Board showing consumers' perceptions of the labor market cooling in August. Nevertheless, labor market conditions remain tight, with 1.5 job openings for every unemployed person in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.465 million job openings in July. The decrease was led by the professional and business services sector, where job openings dropped 198,000. The quits rate, viewed as a measure of labor market confidence, fell to 2.3% from 2.4% in June.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Conrad DeQuadros, Jerome Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Board, Brean, Reuters, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
US new home sales fall, but trend remains strong
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Summary New home sales fall 2.5% in June; up 23.8% year-on-yearMedian new house price drops 4.0% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in June after three straight monthly increases, but the trend remained strong as an acute shortage of previously owned homes underpins demand. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would drop to a rate of 725,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. While the overall the housing market continues to stabilize, higher mortgage rates and the renewed house price appreciation could delay a recovery. The median new house price in June was $415,400, a 4.0% drop from a year ago.
Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome, Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Commerce Department, Brean, Reuters, Mortgage, Association, National Association of Home Builders, Federal, Treasury, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Midwest
Summary Consumer sentiment index rises to 63.9 in June from 59.2One-year inflation expectations drop to 3.3% from 4.2%Long-run inflation expectations dip to 3.0% from 3.1%WASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers' near-term inflation expectations dropped to more than a two-year low in June and the outlook over the next five years improved slightly, according to a survey on Friday that also showed sentiment perking up. "The Fed will be gratified that the surge in inflation expectations in the late-1970s and early 1980s has not been repeated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. The University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.3% this month, the lowest since March 2021, from 4.2% in May. The survey's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at a four-month high of 63.9 in June compared with 59.2 in May. Its measure of consumer expectations rose to 61.3 from 55.4 last month.
Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Joanne Hsu, Robert Frick, Lucia Mutikani, Daniel Wallis, Chizu Organizations: University of Michigan's, Fed, Wednesday, Brean, The University of Michigan, Treasury, Reuters, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Washington, Vienna , Virginia
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in May as consumers stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and building materials, which could help to stave off a dreaded recession in the near term. Retail sales increased 0.3% last month after rising 0.4% in April, the Commerce Department said. SLOWER MOMENTUMExcluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales gained 0.2% last month. Data for April was revised slightly lower to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of the previously reported 0.7%. With price pressures easing in May, economists estimated that core retail sales increased 0.2% after adjusting for inflation.
Persons: , Robert Kavcic, Mike Graziano, Ben Ayers, Unadjusted, Conrad DeQuadros, Tim Quinlan Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wednesday, BMO Capital Markets, Commerce Department, Reuters, Saks Fifth, REUTERS, RSM, Consumers, Nationwide, Labor Department, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Writers Guild of America, Brean, Manufacturing, Federal Locations: Minnesota, U.S, Toronto, New York City, Columbus , Ohio, Texas, California, Writers Guild of America . Georgia, Florida , Illinois , Indiana , Connecticut, New York, Philadelphia, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina
After rampant fraud in Massachusetts briefly boosted claims to a 1-1/2-year high in May before being revised away, economists cautioned against reading too much into the latest rise. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. Unadjusted claims increased only 10,535 to 219,391 last week, with applications in Ohio surging 6,345 and filings in California shooting up 5,173. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged next Wednesday for the first time since March 2022 when it embarked on its fastest interest rate hiking campaign since the 1980s. The U.S. central bank has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points since then.
Persons: Conrad DeQuadros, Unadjusted, Gisela Hoxha, Matthew Martin, Stuart Hoffman, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Labor Department, Brean, Reuters, Auto, Citigroup, Federal, Treasury, Oxford Economics, PNC Financial, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Ohio , Minnesota, California, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Minnesota, U.S, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania
Outside the COVID-19 pandemic, it was the biggest jump since 2010, reflecting a drop in household employment and a rise in the workforce. "However, the other areas of softness in this report suggests that the labor market is losing steam. The backfilling of these retirements and increased demand for services are some of the factors driving job growth. While not dismissing the household survey, economists said the establishment survey was the more reliable of the two. The fall in household employment combined with a rise of 130,000 in the labor force to boost the unemployment rate.
Persons: payrolls, Sal Guatieri, Nonfarm, Mike Blake, Gus Faucher, Conrad DeQuadros, DeQuadros, Daniel Zhao, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor Department, BMO Capital Markets, Fed, Reuters, Leisure, Treasury, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Financial, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial, Brean, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Toronto, Oceanside , California, Pittsburgh , Pennsylvania, New York
Summary Single-family housing starts increase 2.7% in MarchSingle-family building permits jump 4.1%Overall housing starts fall 0.8%; permits drop 8.8%WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - U.S. single-family homebuilding increased for a second straight month in March, while permits for future construction surged, offering some glimmers of hope for the depressed housing market ahead of the busy spring selling season. The improvement in the single-family housing market segment, which was reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, likely reflected buyers taking advantage of a retreat in mortgage rates. A survey on Monday showed falling mortgage rates and tight supply of previously owned houses were supporting the new home market. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000 units last month. Single-family housing starts dropped 27.7% on a year-on-year basis in March.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 for the week ended March 25, the Labor Department said. Claims have remained very low, bouncing around in a tight range despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry. The so-called continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for the unemployment rate for March. Continuing claims increased moderately between the February and March survey weeks. The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in February.
SummarySummary Companies Consumer sentiment slips in MarchInflation expectations easeManufacturing production edges up 0.1% in FebruaryWASHINGTON, March 17 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months in March, but households expected inflation to subside over the next year and beyond, which could offer some relief to the Federal Reserve as it confronts financial market instability. The University of Michigan's preliminary March reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 63.4, down from 67 in the prior month. While the correlation between consumer sentiment and spending is weak, economists expect tighter financial conditions will undercut consumption and push the economy into recession. A separate report from the Conference Board showed its Leading Economic Index, a gauge of future economic activity, dropped for an 11th straight month in February. Durable manufacturing production nudged up 0.1%, while nondurable manufacturing output climbed 0.2%.
"Even after factoring in the latest increase, jobless claims are exceptionally low by historical standards, underscoring just how tight labor market conditions still are," said Michael Pearce, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. The four-week moving average for new claims, a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out weekly fluctuations, climbed 4,000 to 197,000 last week. Claims had stayed below 200,000 for seven straight weeks, indicating that high-profile job cuts in the technology sector had not had a material impact on the labor market. Goldman Sachs believed residual seasonality accounted for about half of last week's rise in claims. The labor market is, however, cooling on the margins.
Thirteen services industries, including construction, retail trade, accommodation and food services as well as professional, scientific and technical services, reported growth last month. Overall, the services sector is benefiting from a switch in consumer spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMISUPPLY SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVEDThe services sector is now at the center of the fight against inflation as services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to interest rate increases. A measure of prices paid by services industries for inputs fell to 65.6, the lowest in January 2021, from 67.8 in January. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid gauge as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.
Nevertheless, the rebound in prices at the factory gate suggests inflation could remain elevated for a while after monthly consumer and producer prices surged in January. The ISM's manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.7 last month from 47.4 in January. Paper products, textile mills, furniture and related products as well as nonmetallic mineral products, computer and electronic products were among the 14 reporting contraction. Comments from some manufacturers in the ISM survey were supportive of this thesis. Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said "new order rates remain sluggish due to buyer and supplier disagreements regarding price levels and delivery lead times."
The jobs market has remained resilient despite growing economic headwinds from the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases. While labor market strength keeps the U.S. central policy on its monetary policy tightening path, it also suggests that a much anticipated recession is nowhere near. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it strips out week-to-week volatility, fell 2,500 to 189,250, the lowest level since last April. "But even so, the job market remains remarkably strong." "There is no sign of easing of labor market tightness here."
SummarySummary Companies Weekly jobless claims increase 4,000 to 230,000Continuing claims rise 62,000 to 1.671 millionWASHINGTON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits increased moderately last week, while unemployment rolls hit a 10-month high towards the end of November, suggesting the labor market was gradually slowing down. Still, labor market conditions remain tight, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to continue increasing interest rates as it fights inflation. "Overall, the labor market remains tight and demand for workers is strong," said Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in White Plains, New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Dec. 3. The unemployment rate for people on jobless benefits increased to 1.2%, the highest since March, from 1.1% in the prior week.
"While not the timeliest measure, the recent strength in unit labor costs is consistent with the idea that the tight labor market is keeping upward pressure on employment costs," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York. Productivity fell at a 1.3% rate from a year ago, instead of the previously reported 1.4% pace. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 2.4% rate. Unit labor costs rose at a 5.3% rate from a year ago instead of the previously reported 6.1% pace. Hourly compensation increased at a 3.2% pace, revised down from the 3.8% rate reported last month.
The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of manufacturing and services exports stuck in contraction territory in November. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. The overall decline in consumer goods imports is in line with slowing demand for goods because of higher borrowing costs. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October.
Weak U.S. goods exports weigh on trade deficit
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. The second straight monthly widening in the trade gap was partly driven by a shift in pharmaceutical products trade, with exports of these goods falling sharply and imports surging. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October. A smaller trade deficit was one of the main factors behind the rebound in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter.
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