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☆ Commodity ETFs are sliding in the third quarter. Why that could be positive for patient investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-24 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

More than halfway through the third quarter, many of the biggest commodity ETFs in the United States are in sizable holes. Kathy Kriskey, senior commodities ETF strategist at Invesco, said that oil supply is actually tight at the moment. The commodities slump could be partially due to mechanical factors in the market, such as low trading volumes combined with large commodity trading advisors betting against the sector, Kriskey said. "The price of corn has taken almost three full years from those 2022 spike highs to get back down. And oil, one of the biggest weights in commodity indexes, could see stepped up supply in coming months.

Persons: It's, Ryan Grabinski, Strategas, Kathy Kriskey, Kriskey, Sal Gilbertie, We're, Gilbertie, What's, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Matijn, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Strategy, United States Oil Fund, U.S ., Commodities, 4Q, DB Base Metals Fund Locations: United States, Ukraine, U.S, China

☆ To woo investors, hedge funds are reviving a strategy left for dead post-crisis — supercharged index investing
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

Read previewFaced with higher rates and a daunting fundraising climate, hedge funds are wooing investors with a seemingly antithetical pitch: index investing with a twist. Hedge fund industry insiders are abuzz right now about "portable alpha," a blast-from-the-past strategy that's undergoing a revival. According to the Morgan Stanley white paper, it can take on a variety of forms, including "dedicated portable alpha funds, portable alpha share classes, portable alpha feeder funds and other solutions." Advertisement"It's a nice way of smuggling hedge funds into your portfolio if you're an allocator," said Jon Caplis, CEO of hedge fund research firm PivotalPath. He said much of the industry still hasn't woken up to the appetite for portable alpha solutions and the potential boon to hedge funds.

Persons: —, punchier, Kim Shaw, Morgan Stanley, There's, Shaw, Penny Novick, Morgan, Novick, Bill Gross, Myron Scholes, PIMCO's, Roark Stahler, Jon Caplis, Russell, PIMCO, Sabrina Callin, Brian Payne, Payne, Caplis, hasn't Organizations: Service, Trading, Business, Man, CME Group, BlackRock, Barclays, Russell Investments, Institutional, State, Investor, BCA Research, Teachers, Investors Locations: Winton, American, Illinois

☆ U.S. crude oil holds above $81 per barrel, on pace for second weekly gain in a row
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. crude oil held firm above $81 per barrel on Thursday, with the benchmark heading for its second weekly gain in a row. West Texas Intermediate has gained 4% this week, while global benchmark Brent is up 3.3%. JPMorgan is forecasting that Brent will hit $90 per barrel in September as the market tightens on falling inventories. Here are today's energy prices:Crude oil has proven resilient with upside momentum firming, Ryan McKay, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, told clients in a research note Wednesday. Commodity trading advisors could ease up on buying and liquidate some of their length if U.S. oil drops below $80.33 and Brent falls under $84.92, McKay said.

Persons: Brent, Natasha Kaneva, Morgan, Ryan McKay, McKay Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, Brent, JPMorgan, TD Securities Locations: 3Q24

☆ Oil market 'oversold'? Analysts and traders pin crude's price plunge on demand, trading strategies
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Ruxandra Iordache | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices defied the announcement of extended supply cuts from the OPEC+ alliance with brisk declines, with analysts and traders faulting certain trading strategies and the demand picture for the downturn. "I would say that what the market is going through currently is going into an oversold, technically oversold market that is pushing the prices down," he noted. The front-month Nymex WTI contract was at $73.28 per barrel, higher by 3 cents per barrel from the Tuesday settlement. While some blame the OPEC+ meeting for the drop, we believe other factors — such as the option market—have played a role," UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Tuesday note to clients. Renewed inventory draws are needed to push oil prices higher, in our view."

Persons: Abdulaziz Almoqbel, CNBC's Dan Murphy, —, …, Almoqbel, Ice Brent, Giovanni Staunovo Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Ice, bbl, UBS Locations: Huntington Beach , California, OPEC, London

☆ Just a mirage? Traders worry November's strong start is just massive short covering
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The S & P 500 surged by 5.85% last week, its best weekly performance going back to November 2022. .SPX 3M mountain S & P 500 But a number of market participants are concerned the rally has more to do with short covering. Of those instances, the S & P 500 was down five days after the move, by more than 1% on both an average and median basis. Commodity trading advisors also accelerated short covering, notably turning short in the front end, according to a Bank of America note on Monday. Elsewhere, Citi's Chris Montagu said S & P 500 futures positioning remains "moderately bearish" following the short-covering rally.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Goldman Sachs, BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, Citi's Chris Montagu, Montagu, Wolfe Research's Senyek Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq, Bank, America, Federal

☆ Hedge funds expected to ramp up returns on higher rates - BNP survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Investors expect hedge funds to produce higher returns with the prospect of interest rates staying higher for longer, a BNP Paribas [RIC:RIC:BNPPL.UL] investor survey showed on Wednesday. Investors now expect hedge funds to return an average of 9.75% annually within an average of 19 months, up from 6.85%, according to the survey. However, hedge funds themselves think this will take longer, up to 29 months, the survey showed. BNP Paribas said historical evidence shows hedge funds tend to perform well in higher and stable interest rate environments and less so when rates are lower. BNP Capital Introduction Group surveyed 82 hedge fund managers in what it called the "summer" of 2023.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Michael Oliver Weinberg, “, ”, Weinberg, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, BNP, RIC, Investors, Group, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ Analysis: Trend hedge funds come out winners in bond market rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet in one corner of the hedge fund world, there's a sigh of relief. So-called trend following and systematic hedge funds have long positioned for a fall in government bond prices given higher-for-longer inflation. AlphaSimplex is a $7.9 billion trend following hedge fund. While many trend funds, also known as "managed futures" funds, use price data, their trading models might also interpret macro economic factors playing out in markets. Some trend funds shrank their fixed income holdings in response to the March turmoil.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Kathryn Kaminski, Morningstar, Razvan Remsing, Yao Hua Ooi, Laurent Le Saint, Metori, Aspect's, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Generale, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury, Virtus, AQR Capital Management, Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, United States, Germany, Boston, Silicon, Europe, China, Paris, EU, Japan

☆ Traders dumped a record $40 billion of stock futures in past week, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bearish views on the stock market culminated in the sale of an estimated record of $40 billion of S & P 500 stock index futures over the past five sessions, but that selling pressure is about to ease, according to a note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk. Hedge funds that use a managed futures strategy (Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs) recently unwound positions in S & P 500 futures at the greatest speed and magnitude "on record," Goldman said. With most of those positions now squared away, however, Goldman claims "we are closer to the end of this sell pressure than not." Goldman said lower risk, lowest cost trades are available in one-month call options on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust , Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust . Greater returns might come from stocks that Goldman added to its "conviction list" Monday, such as Nvidia , Cintas and Quanterix Corp. (Goldman removed Salesforce and Johnson Controls from the "conviction list" this week.)

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Salesforce, Michael Bloom Organizations: Trading Advisors, Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Health, Fund, Consumer, Trust, Nvidia, Quanterix Corp, Johnson

☆ U.S. stock prices near level for 'mechanical selling' - Nomura's McElligott
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Options floor brokers work on the floor of the NYSE American, formerly known as the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 11, 2023. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped to 4,401.38, near a a four-week low, putting the index on the verge of setting off a deluge of "mechanical selling", or stock selling by options dealers and certain trend-following investors, including commodity trading advisors (CTAs), Nomura’s McElligott said. The selloff also pushed the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) - an options-based gauge of expected stock market gyrations - to its highest in nearly four weeks. A drop below the 4,409 level for the S&P 500 triggers selling by CTAs with an estimated $12.3 billion of stock futures up for sale in aggregate, McElligott estimates. If investors react to the latest drop in the market by selling volatility or by taking profits on existing hedges it could help stifle the selling pressure on the market, he said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Nomura’s McElligott, McElligott, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson, & $ Locations: New York City, U.S, Charlie McElligott .

☆ Hedge funds drop European stocks for US and Japan, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Hedge funds ditched European equities last week for stocks in the United States and Japan, client notes from JP Morgan (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) show, as strong economic data lifted equity markets in both countries. Commodity Trading Advisors, hedge funds that use algorithms to trade market trends, rotated out of European and Hong Kong stocks and have moved into the United States and Japan, a JP Morgan note seen on Monday showed. These funds have taken the largest bullish position in Japanese stocks seen in about two years, while long, or bullish bets, on UK stocks were "trimmed the most in May," the note said. Hedge funds also bought shares of North American financial companies, health care, industrials and consumer-related sectors, a Morgan Stanley note said. A separate Morgan Stanley note on Monday said markets were now in the midst of several "hotter but shorter", earnings cycles.

Persons: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Morgan, Nell Mackenzie, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Staff LONDON, Commodity Trading Advisors, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, North, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Japan, Hong Kong, U.S, American, North American

☆ Gold flirts with all-time highs as banking concerns deepen
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold are placed in a workroom at Krastsvetmet precious metals plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk, Russia, January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Alexander ManzyukGold made another run toward record highs on Thursday as U.S. banking concerns accelerated a flight to the safe-haven asset and sustained its stellar rally driven by bets for a pause in U.S. rate hikes. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,045.79 per ounce after climbing earlier to $2,072.19, shy of a record high of $2,072.49. The Fed Funds target rate stands in the 5%-5.25% range, with markets expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year. In physical markets, lofty prices have tarnished gold demand in top Asian retail hubs.

☆ OPEC says IEA should be 'very careful' with repeated calls to stop investing in oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said finger-pointing and misrepresenting the actions of OPEC and OPEC+ was "counterproductive." OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais said finger-pointing and misrepresenting the actions of OPEC and OPEC+ was "counterproductive." He added that the influential group of 23 oil-exporting exporting nations was not targeting oil prices, but instead focusing on market fundamentals. In a Bloomberg TV interview on Wednesday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol used similar language in warning OPEC about boosting oil prices. "Other energy markets have been far more volatile," al-Ghais said, "with oil markets less so, mainly due to the stabilizing role of OPEC and the OPEC+ group."

ORLANDO, Florida, March 22 (Reuters) - First the record wager on higher U.S. interest rates, now the record wipe out. Their record net short position in three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures of 1.17 million contracts was slashed to 329,638 contracts in the week through March 14. chartchartExpectations of a 6% fed funds rate have long faded. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall. The latest CFTC figures also revealed how the recent surge in volatility has put speculative accounts trading three-month SOFR futures out of the market.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that speculators held the largest ever net short position in three-month SOFR rate futures in the week ending March 7, only a few weeks after amassing a record short position in two-year Treasuries futures. Implied rates then plunged as much as 200 basis points in a week as traders drastically redrew their Fed outlook. Analysts at Deutsche Bank say the huge disconnect between bond and rates volatility over equity volatility recently is partly down to the extreme positioning in fixed income. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

☆ The March stock market outlook as the S&P 500 loses momentum after strong 2023 start
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 ended right at the closing low for February, down 2.6%. .SPX 6M mountain S & P 500, 6-months So what's likely to happen in March? On the technical side, not a single sector in the S & P is showing any momentum at all. Even with the decline in February, the S & P 500 is currently trading for nearly 18 times 2023 earnings. Even though February ended on a lousy note, the S & P 500 is still up 3.4% for the year.

☆ Analysis: Investors seek uncorrelated assets on worries volatility will return
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet some market participants are convinced the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation will keep markets volatile and are allocating funds to so-called alternative investments. Those types of returns are not typical, however, and the performance of CTAs has been more muted in less volatile markets. Private markets raised $216.9 billion in 2022, putting assets at $1.4 trillion as at June 2022, from $311 billion in 2010, according to data provider Preqin. A 2023 study from State Street found that 68% of investors plan to increase their allocation to private markets in the next two to three years. "In that environment, stocks and bonds are likely to be more correlated."

☆ Analysis: Hawkish Fed could hobble volatility funds’ stock buying spree
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 6.2% surge in January has been accompanied by a drop in measures of volatility across the board. The drop in market gyrations has triggered a buy-signal for certain computer-driven strategies including volatility control funds, risk parity funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Volatility control funds have raised their equity allocation to a nine-month high of 57.7%, strategists at Deutsche Bank wrote on Friday. Grinacoff, of BNP Paribas, estimates volatility control funds have assets of about $275 billion, while CTAs, not all of which have a volatility control strategy, as a group have $800 billion allocated across strategies. "Market volatility measured by VIX remains stuck above the 18 level, which is its long-term average.

☆ 'Huge regime shift': Active managers see boost from the energy trade
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

He co-runs the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF , which is up 24% so far this year. And right now we're in the middle of a huge regime shift," the firm's managing member told CNBC's "ETF Edge" last week. "The modern term is managed futures. "In regulatory land, futures contracts are often treated as commodities, but we call them managed futures." Beer's strategy uses long and short futures contracts in an attempt to mimic returns.

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