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☆ Stocks tumble, oil spikes as Mideast tensions flare
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped. On the economic data front, job openings rose unexpectedly in August. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets.

Persons: —, Helima Croft, Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams Organizations: Treasury, Service, Traders, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Global, LPL, Labor, Comerica Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon

☆ 6 Wall Street experts share why investors could be overestimating how much the Fed will cut rates after August's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps

☆ Surging US unemployment has triggered a recession indicator with a perfect track record
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewA closely watched recession indicator flashed on Friday after a weak July jobs report showed an unexpected surge in the unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule, created by former Federal Reserve official Claudia Sahm, triggers when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average moves 50 basis points above its 12-month low. That rule was triggered on Friday, with the moving average rising 53 basis points above that one-year trough, according to the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The only misfire for the rule was in 1959, but even then, a recession started just five months after the Sahm Rule flashed. But Sahm herself wrote in a Substack post last week that "the rise in the unemployment rate is not as ominous as it would normally seem."

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Bill Adams, Sahm, hasn't Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Comerica Bank, Fed

☆ Stock market today: Indexes edge higher, yields fall ahead of the Fed's favorite inflation gauge
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks ended Thursday slightly higher ahead of a key update on inflation. PCE for May will be published on Friday morning, providing new hints about when rate cuts may be coming. Chip firms Nvidia and Micron dipped in Thursday's session, though the broader Nasdaq edged higher. Bond yields dipped ahead of the new data, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling about two basis points to 4.292%. "More recent data have moved in the right direction, but not by enough to convince the Fed that inflation is whipped."

Persons: Stocks, —, economy's, Bill Adams, Michelle Bowman, Keith Gill Organizations: PCE, Nvidia, Micron, Nasdaq, Service, Commerce Department, Treasury, Friday's PCE, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, Here's Locations: Friday's, U.S, Chewy

☆ Stock market today: Record-setting rally stalls as Nvidia slides and economic data softens
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Max Adams | Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks closed mostly lower Thursday, ending a long streak of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Nvidia dragged the market lower as the tech giant dropped 3% after rising as much in early morning trading. The S&P 500 climbed above 5,500 for the first time ever on Thursday before dipping back below that level. Advertisement"At the same time, labor market indicators like initial and continued jobless claims are weakening.

Persons: —, Bill Adams Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Comerica Bank

☆ Stock market today: Stocks edge higher to close at a record after upbeat producer inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Max Adams | Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks ended mostly higher on Thursday as investors were encouraged by new inflation data. Data showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected in May, a day after CPI showed consumer inflation also slowed. Tesla shares jumped ahead of the results of Elon Musk's pay package vote, while Broadcom soared after earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Meanwhile, Broadcom stock rocketed higher on upbeat earnings and the announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Elon Musk Organizations: Elon, Broadcom, Service, Federal Reserve, Traders, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, BlackRock, Vanguard, Bank of America, Nvidia, Here's

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at record highs after encouraging May inflation and Fed commentary
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose to fresh records Wednesday as traders took in cool inflation and Fed comments. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as investors took in cool inflation data and the Federal Reserve's latest guidance on rate cuts, helping the S&P 500 to another record close. The 10-year Treasury fell seven basis points to 6.33%, rising from steeper losses earlier in the day after the central bank updated its outlook to include fewer rate cuts than previously expected. FOMC members said they didn't believe it was "appropriate" to cut rates until they had gained more confidence inflation is trending back to 2%. Fed fund futures show that investors see a 62% chance the Fed will cut rates three times or more by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: —, FOMC, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Comerica Bank Locations: April's

☆ Inflation Remains Steady, With Signs of Further Cooling
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation remained essentially flat in April while showing signs of progress, the Commerce Department reported Friday, in a closely watched measure that will guide the Federal Reserve in any decision to loosen interest rates in the coming months. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.7 percent from a year earlier, the same level as in March. After stripping out volatile food and fuel prices for a clearer reading of price trends — called the core index — inflation remained steady at 2.8 percent on an annual basis. On a monthly basis, inflation also remained flat, with prices rising 0.3 percent in April. That “core” index showed a slight moderation, rising 0.2 percent from the previous month, compared with 0.3 percent in March.

Persons: “, ”, Bill Adams Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market today: Sell-off continues as markets digest new data, brace for PCE
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Max Adams | Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are bracing for the release of PCE inflation data on Friday. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Markets are now bracing for the release of personal consumption expenditures data, which is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Economists expect the data to show inflation in April rose 2.7% year-over-year, while core PCE rose 0.2%, compared to 0.3% in March.

Persons: —, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Comerica Bank, Treasury, Fed Locations: Salesforce, Here's

☆ Stock futures inch higher Sunday after weaker-than-expected jobs report left investors looking up: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-05 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 66 points, or around 0.2%. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq gained 1.1% and 1.4% each, while the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. But the April jobs report helps clear a path to that destination," said Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams. While the peak of the first-quarter earnings season has passed, investors are still watching key companies set to report this week, including Dow member Disney on Tuesday and Uber on Wednesday. On the economic front, Richmond Fed president Tom Barkin and New York Fed president John Williams are both scheduled to speak on Monday.

Persons: Dow, Bill Adams, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Uber, Emmanuel Cau, Tom Barkin, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, U.S ., Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Comerica Bank, Apple, Disney, Barclays, Richmond Fed, New York Fed Locations: New York City, U.S, U.S . U.S

☆ The Fed could make a big change today. We’re not talking about interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.

Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, ”, Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, “, Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle

☆ Stock market today: Dow drops 570 points to end worst month of 2024 as traders brace for Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks dropped sharply as investors readjusted rate cut expectations ahead of the latest FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as investors got another dose of inflationary data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. For the Fed, that adds even more restraint on its ability to cut interest rates this year, and futures markets now expect only one rate cut in December. AdvertisementThe equity decline that followed only deepened April's market losses, making it the first month of 2024 to end in the red.

Persons: Stocks, —, Bill Adams, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, of Labor Statistics, Comerica Bank Locations: McDonald's, Israel, Here's

☆ S&P 500 futures pop in overnight trading, boosted by Alphabet and Microsoft: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures rose in overnight trading Thursday as Big Tech names Alphabet and Microsoft saw shares rally on strong earnings. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures popped 1.2%. The blue-chip Dow slid 375 points Thursday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 is up 1.6% week to date, on pace to break a three-week losing streak. So far, about 38% of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly results, and nearly 80% of those beat earnings expectations.

Persons: Dow, Thursday's, Dow Jones, Bill Adams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Big Tech, Microsoft, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Gross, Dow, Comerica Bank, Chevron, Exxon Mobil

☆ Stock futures inch up as all eyes are on key inflation reading: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading Monday as investors await a key inflation report that could inform the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both inched up 0.2%. All eyes are on the February reading of the consumer price index, which is set to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. "The CPI index likely ran hot in February on higher gasoline prices, but core inflation likely slowed further as car prices fell and rent increases moderated," said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. The technology-led market rally has lost momentum as of late as some of the biggest winners this year continued to retreat.

Persons: Dow Jones, Bill Adams, Tesla, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, CPI, Fed, Comerica Bank, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft

☆ Remember the labor shortage? Immigrants are helping to fix it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Andy Kiersz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

AdvertisementThat means the strong job numbers of recent months have largely been due to immigrants , specifically foreign-born workers, entering the workforce in large numbers. “Foreign-born labor force participants have accounted for all of the job growth over the last year,” Bill Adams, an economist at Comerica Bank, told The New York Times. AdvertisementAdditionally, he said these job gains haven’t come at the expense of US-born workers either. As of 2022, foreign-born workers were more likely than US-born workers to be in service, natural resources, construction, and maintenance jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As of January, 65.7% of foreign-born workers were working or looking for work, compared to 61.4% of US-born workers.

Persons: —, ” Bill Adams, Paul Krugman, “ They're, ”, Louis, Miguel Faria, Castro, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Business, Comerica Bank, New York Times, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Immigrants, Congressional, Office, St, Louis Fed

Consumers remained largely sanguine about the economy and inflation in February, according to the latest sentiment survey from the University of Michigan released Friday. The February index rose 0.6 points to 79.6 after posting strong gains in the prior two months. The index of consumer expectations, a forecast of how Americans see the economy in the coming months, is now up 21.6% from a year ago. Expectations for inflation did tick up slightly, with the 12-month level now at 3%, up from 2.9% in January. “The upside surprise in the January PPI report echoes the month’s CPI report,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “ Consumers, Hsu, Jerome Powell’s, Ken Tjonasam, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: University of Michigan, “, PPI, Global, CPI, Comerica Bank, “ Labor

☆ US retail sales declined in January by much more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —Spending at US retailers tumbled much more than expected in January as cold weather across the United States kept shoppers at home after a robust holiday spending season. Retail sales, which captures spending on all goods and food services, fell 0.8% in January, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, breaking a two-month streak of increases. Spending declined across various categories last month, including at gas stations and home improvement stores, likely due to the cold weather, falling 1.7% and 4.1%, respectively. January’s Arctic chill also reversed course later in the month in some parts of the country and it’s possible that retail spending could come roaring back in February. “The Fed is likely to look through one month’s weak retail sales report, especially since there is an obvious explanation from a clearly temporary issue,” he said.

Persons: it’s, Bill Adams, “, ” Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank Locations: Washington, United States

The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.

Persons: ”, BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, “, Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, “ Locations: U.S

Where does the economy go from here? Consumers are feeling better, expecting that the economy will do well and inflation will subside in the coming 12 months. While the economy ended last year on a strong note, the expectation was that it would cool down as the calendar turned to 2024. Last week, the International Monetary Fund boosted its projection for global growth to 3.1% from its October estimate of 2.9%, citing “greater-than-expected resilience” in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast has the U.S economy growing at a 4.2% clip in the first quarter.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, “, That’s Organizations: Federal, Labor Department, ” Comerica Bank, Fed, CBS, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Santander Bank, ” Locations: U.S, ” Santander

Official figures show that growth is solid, jobs are plentiful and wages are climbing, and yet voters are mostly feeling down and giving President Biden little credit. Friday’s jobs data is adding to that split-screen view, with economists pointing out red flags in an otherwise sterling report. Employers added 353,000 jobs last month, almost double economists’ forecasts, and an additional 100,000 via revisions in previous months. Average hourly wages rose, too. For a start, wintry weather shrank the average workweek to 34.1 hours in January.

Persons: Biden, Bill Adams Organizations: Employers, Comerica Bank Locations: U.S

☆ The US housing market has ended a 9-month streak of price gains
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The latest S&P Case-Shiller national home price index data published Tuesday — which offers the three-month average for September, October, and November closing prices — showed a moderate slowdown in price gains. "The streak of nine monthly gains ended in November, setting the index back to levels last seen over the summer months." However, each saw annual gains of 5.4% and 6.2%, respectively. The biggest annual price gains came in Detroit and San Diego, at 8.2% and 8%, respectively. "The rate has since fallen over 1%, which could support further annual gains in home prices."

Persons: —, Brian D, Luke, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank Locations: Detroit, San Diego, Miami, Tampa, Atlanta, Charlotte , New York, Cleveland, Portland

Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.

Persons: ”, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, “, Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan

☆ Even with progress on inflation and solid growth, the Fed will want to see more before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."

Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade

☆ Markets tried to fight the Fed on rate cuts. It didn’t work
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.

Persons: ’, Christopher Waller, ”, who’ve, Loretta Mester, “, Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, ”, JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States

☆ What’s getting more expensive — and cheaper — at the grocery store
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

That’s the lowest annual increase registered since June 2021 and a far cry from the 11.8% increase registered in December 2022. Overall food prices were up 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the rate of increase seen in November, CPI data shows. Eggs and ham prices went up the most in December as compared to other food categories tracked in the CPI. Ham prices rose 2.6% for the month (2.9% excluding canned ham), BLS data showed. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that grocery prices rose only 1.3% for the year ended in December.

Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Adams, chow, Wendy Edelberg, Ash Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Comerica Bank, CPI, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Ham, United States

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