The U.S. economy is "back to normal" for the first time in two decades, but the market is getting ahead of the likely pace of interest rate cuts, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn.
The central bank in September paused its historically aggressive monetary tightening cycle with the Fed funds rate target range at 5.25-5.5%, up from just 0.25-0.5% in March 2022.
"You don't want to be early to leave when you're the last one to come to the party.
"The economy will clearly turn down before the Fed had starts to cut interest rates, so I strongly believe that for the first half of '24, we will see no rate activity in the Fed.
Maybe [in the third quarter], we'll start hearing rumblings of some forward guidance of lower rates."
Persons:
Gary Cohn, Cohn —, Donald Trump, Cohn, CNBC's Dan Murphy
Organizations:
IBM, Federal Reserve, National Economic, Abu, Abu Dhabi Finance, Fed
Locations:
U.S, Abu Dhabi