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LAUNCESTON, Australia, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The two main spot prices for iron ore diverged last week, with Singapore-traded contracts gaining but China's domestic futures posting a decline. The exchange said on Nov. 30 that it will continue to strengthen its supervision of iron ore futures to maintain what it termed the safe and stable operation of the market. But despite the travails of the property sector, China's iron ore imports have been relatively robust so far in 2023. In the same week last year iron ore stockpiles were 137.5 million metric tons and were 155.4 million in the same week on 2021. History suggests that the authorities can cool iron ore prices, but only for a relatively short period, especially if the market conditions are supportive for stronger prices.

Persons: Sonali Paul Organizations: Singapore Exchange, Dalian Commodity Exchange, National Development, Reform, it's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Singapore, Beijing, Dalian

What the group did agree was total production curbs of 2.2 million bpd from eight members, a figure that includes an extension of the existing voluntary Saudi and Russian cuts of 1.3 million bpd. This is up 1.86 million bpd from the figure of 40.10 million bpd for 2022, according to Kpler. China's crude imports were 11.36 million bpd in the first 10 months of the year, up 1.21 million bpd from the level for 2022 as a whole. India saw arrivals of 4.62 million bpd in the first 10 months of the year, according to LSEG data, up 462,000 bpd on the 4.14 million bpd for 2022. Asia's crude imports in the first 10 months of the year were 26.93 million bpd, according to LSEG data, up 1.34 million bpd on the 25.59 million bpd recorded for the whole of 2022.

Persons: It's, Stephen Coates Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Brent, OPEC, International Energy Agency, world's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, OPEC, Russia, Saudi, United States, Brazil, Guyana, Asia, China, India

A woman picks a gold earring at a jewellery shop in the old quarters of Delhi, India, May 24, 2023. While India's gold demand has been solid so far in 2023, matching strength in the domestic economy, it appears that some momentum may be coming out of the market. The high price of gold for consumers in China may further crimp demand in the fourth quarter, after the World Gold Council reported a decline in third. The recent price rally is likely to trim demand growth in India in the current quarter. But countering the positive drivers are signs that high prices are undermining demand growth in the key markets of China and India.

Persons: Anushree, they're, Hong Kong, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Federal Reserve, Hong, Hong Kong Census, Statistics Department, Gold, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Delhi, India, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Hong, Central

China's imports are being driven by increased arrivals from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, with Kpler estimating 18.03 million metric tons will arrive this month. This is up from imports from Indonesia of 16.70 million metric tons in October, according to Kpler data. Imports from Indonesia are expected to decline to 10.92 million metric tons in November from 12.19 million in October. Thermal coal arrivals from Australia are forecast to be 1.11 million metric tons in November, up slightly from the 1.02 million in October. Overall, its possible that China's increased appetite for imported thermal coal ahead of the northern winter is crowding out some demand in India, which tends to be a more price-sensitive buyer.

Persons: Stephen Coates Organizations: Argus, CHINA, Atlantic, Indonesian, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Indonesia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Beijing, Canberra, South Africa, Asia, Europe

A flexible tube for CO2 is pictured at a a pilot project for carbon capture and storage (CCS). REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke Acquire Licensing RightsNov 23 - Carbon capture and underground storage (CCUS) is touted by proponents of fossil fuel production and consumption as the technology that will keep oil and gas in the global energy mix. The IEA produced some sobering numbers in its report, The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions. While the IEA said more than $3 billion was invested in CCUS projects in 2022, only 5% of the ventures have reached final investment decisions, representing only 10 million metric tons of carbon capture and 20 million of storage. There is little doubt that the oil and gas industry will learn from experience and get better at doing CCUS.

Persons: Hannibal Hanschke, CCUS, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, International Energy Agency, IEA, and Gas Industry, Chevron, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Chevron's, Western Australia

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A surge of diesel and gasoline exports from China in the last northern winter eased then-prevailing fuel shortages in Asia but a repeat performance this year is unlikely. Diesel exports peaked at 2.39 million metric tons in January this year, before dropping to just 290,000 by June, according to official customs data. Since then they have eased back, dropping to 1.18 million metric tons in September and 1.11 million in October. November exports are expected to less than 700,000 metric tons, according to an estimate by LSEG based on ship-tracking and port data. Shipments this month are likely to be around 600,000 metric tons, according to LSEG, which would be the weakest month this year.

Persons: LSEG, Kpler, Robert Birsel Organizations: Diesel, LSEG, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Beijing, Singapore, Europe

China's refiners processed 63.93 million metric tons of crude in October, equivalent to 15.05 million bpd, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Nov. 15. Crude imports were 48.97 million metric tons and domestic output was 17.33 million, giving a total of 66.3 million, equivalent to 15.61 million bpd. Subtracting the refinery throughput from the total crude available leaves a surplus of 560,000 bpd to be put into commercial or strategic reserves. China total crude available vs refinery processingFORECASTS TOO BULLISH? China's imports for the first 10 months of the year are 11.36 million bpd, which is 1.19 million bpd higher than for the whole of 2022.

Persons: refiners, China doesn't, Stephen Coates Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, OPEC, International Energy Agency, BP, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Asia, Saudi Arabia

The strength in iron ore is being driven by renewed optimism that China's vast property sector is emerging from the gloom of recent months. However, there are some fundamental reasons supporting iron ore, chief among them the low port inventories. Stockpiles at China's ports rose to 108.8 million metric tons in the week to Nov. 10, according to data from consultants SteelHome. This was up a modest 3.9 million metric tons from the previous week's 104.9 million, which was the lowest since October 2016. Stockpiles were 136 million metric tons in the same week in 2022 and 147.6 million in 2021, according to SteelHome data.

Persons: Ping, SteelHome, haven't, Miral Organizations: Dalian, Ping An Insurance, HK, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Singapore, Beijing

Snow covered transfer lines are seen at the Dominion Cove Point Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminal in Lusby, Maryland March 18, 2014. The November figure will also be a slight increase from the 21.41 million metric tons from the same month last year. India, Asia's fourth-biggest LNG buyer, is expected to import 1.3 million metric tons in November, down from 1.85 million in October. More U.S. LNG is also heading to Asia, with November imports slated at 1.97 million metric tons, up from 1.83 million in October. This leaves the spot price at the mercy of demand, and while there has been some uptick in both Asia and Europe, it hasn't been enough to drive spot prices higher.

Persons: Snow, Gary Cameron, Europe hasn't, Asia's, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, world's, LNG, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lusby , Maryland, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Asia, Europe, United States, October's, China, Japan, India, Russia, Ukraine, Qatar, U.S, Western Australia

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia made two recent decisions that on the surface seem to indicate a steady crude oil market outlook but may point to a ticking up in concern over the state of demand. It's also likely that softer demand for refined products in Asia amid economic uncertainty led to Aramco's decision to keep the Arab Light OSP unchanged. The extension of the additional 1 million bpd cut is perhaps a tacit admission that crude oil demand isn't as strong as OPEC has been expecting. Asia's crude imports showed some resilience in October, rising to 27.36 million bpd from 26.60 million bpd in September, according to data compiled by LSEG. China, the world's biggest importer, saw arrivals of 11.90 million bpd in October, up from September's 11.18 million bpd, but both these months were down on August's 12.49 million bpd.

Persons: It's, Brent, Robert Birsel Organizations: Saudi Aramco, refiners, Aramco, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, OPEC, LSEG, world's, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Oman, Dubai, Asia, Singapore, Israel, Gaza, Atlantic, refiners, China, Russia

Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal climbed to 75.77 million metric tons in October from 70.29 million in September, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The October volume was also above the 69.63 million metric tons imported in the same month last year. While physical demand for seaborne thermal coal is solid in Asia, the same can't be said for prices. China mainly buys thermal coal from the two biggest exporters, Indonesia and Australia. Overall, the combination of weaker Chinese domestic prices and waning European demand may prove sufficient to keep pressure on seaborne thermal coal prices in Asia, even if volumes remain solid.

Persons: Loren Elliott, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Rights, Argus, Newcastle, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Owen, Ravensworth, Australia, Rights LAUNCESTON, Asia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Beijing, Canberra, Europe, Ukraine, Turkey, South Africa, U.S

Mining companies in the West are facing two overarching challenges in trying to produce enough metals to enable the energy transition, and at the same time build alternative supply chains to lessen their dependence on China. There is little doubt that Australia is a country well-placed to play a major role in supplying many of the metals vital to the energy transition. The previous models for developing mines appear no longer effective, and even if some projects do progress, they are nowhere near enough to provide enough material for the energy transition. Michael Willoughby, global head of metals, mining and transition materials at HSBC, told a forum at IMARC that there is capital available for mining, but it's located in developing countries such as China, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. What's not being talked about is how all the new mines, mineral processing and renewable energy equipment is going to be funded.

Persons: Washington Alves, Michael Willoughby, Willoughby, Miral Organizations: Sigma Lithium Corp, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters . Mining, Mining, Resources Conference, HSBC, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Itinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil, China, Sydney, Asia, Australia, CHINA, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, New South Wales, U.S

JOURNEY STARTSIron-flow batteries were developed decades ago but have yet to be deployed as a grid-scale energy storage solution. ESI Managing Director Stuart Parry believes iron-flow batteries are an idea whose "time has come." Parry doesn't see iron-flow batteries replacing lithium-ion units, rather they are complementary with lithium batteries able to arbitrage power prices by acting rapidly, while iron-flow units are more likely to act as baseload firming for the grid when renewables tail off. Parry also says iron-flow batteries work out about a third cheaper than lithium ion units when looking at the cost on a MWh basis. On the surface, iron-flow batteries seem like a solid solution to how to run an electricity grid dominated by variable renewables.

Persons: Stuart Parry, Parry, Lincoln Organizations: Stanwell Corp, Energy Storage Industries Asia, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Greenough, Walkaway, Perth, Australia, LAUNCESTON, Queensland, Rockhampton

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2023 report released on Tuesday that China is reaching an inflection point and its total energy demand is likely to peak around the middle of this decade. But the sheer scale of China's energy demand means that even though it's making vast strides to deploy renewables and electrify its vehicle fleet, it will still be consuming vast quantities of fossil fuels for decades to come. "In our scenarios, China's GDP growth averages just under 4% per year to 2030," the IEA said. "This results in its total energy demand peaking around the middle of this decade, with robust expansion of clean energy putting overall fossil fuel demand and emissions into decline." This means that from a climate change perspective, encouraging and supporting China's energy transition is probably the most meaningful goal that can be achieved.

Persons: it's, It's, Sam Holmes Organizations: International Energy Agency, Energy, IEA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Europe

Refiners also called on stockpiles in July, though, when refinery processing exceeded the total volume of available crude by 510,000 bpd. The inventory draws in September and July came as China's refiners boosted throughput to meet rising domestic demand and higher fuel exports. As well, a strong rally in global oil prices has lowered the incentive to keep crude imports at elevated levels. China total available crude vs refinery throughputIMPORTS DROPPING? China's crude imports were 11.13 million bpd in September, down 10.5% from August's 12.4 million bpd, according to customs data.

Persons: Refiners, China's, China doesn't, It's, LSEG, Tom Hogue Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Benchmark Brent, United, United Arab Emirates, Diesel, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, It's, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, United Arab, Asia

The decline has been driven by weakness in producing fuels such as gasoline and naphtha, even as the margin on middle distillates has performed strongly. The trend for refining in Asia is increasingly characterised by strong margins for middle distillates, which are enough to offset weakness in gasoline and even losses for naphtha. Asia's total exports were 7.4 million metric tons in September, equivalent to about 1.85 million bpd, according to data from LSEG. Data from commodity analysts Kpler is also far from convincing, with just 660,000 metric tons of diesel shipments from China so far in October. Effectively, Asia's refiners are happy to suffer weak margins on fuels such as gasoline and naphtha because the profits on middle distillates are so high.

Persons: it's, refiners, Robert Birsel Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Asia, Singapore, Dubai, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, China, Beijing

The exception among major commodities was copper, where imports of the unwrought metal were up in September from August, but down from the year earlier month. Copper imports were 480,426 metric tons in September, up from August's 473,330, but down 5.8% from 509,954 in September last year. For the first nine months of 2023, unwrought copper imports were down 9.5% to 3.99 million metric tons. Crude oil imports were 11.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from August's 12.4 million bpd, although it's worth noting that August was third strongest month on record. IRON ORE, COALIron ore imports dropped to 101.18 million metric tons in October, down 4.9% from August's 106.42 million, but it's worth noting that August was the strongest month since October 2020.

Persons: Aly, China's, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Port, Shanghai, China, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, August's

A stacker unloads iron ore onto a pile at a mine located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia December 2, 2013. China iron ore imports vs SGX priceIMPORTS SLIPThere are also signs that China's iron ore imports may soften in October, although that is most likely related to the week-long holidays at the start of the month. The last official reading on iron ore imports was August's customs figure of 106.42 million metric tons, which was the highest monthly total since October 2020. A further possible concern for iron ore imports is what policy China will adopt regarding steel production for the coming winter period. One possible bullish factor for iron ore is the continuing retreat of China's port inventories, which suggests scope to import more to boost stockpiles.

Persons: David Gray, doesn't, SteelHome, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, HK, Garden, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Pilbara, Western Australia, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Beijing, Singapore, China's, China

The usual seasonal pattern for the spot price is a rally heading into the northern winter and summer peak demand periods, followed by a lull in the shoulder seasons in between. This figure already exceeds the 20.22 million metric tons from October last year and is likely to be revised upwards as more cargoes are assessed. Demand in top importer Japan is still following the usual seasonal pattern, which generally sees soft arrivals in October followed by strength as the colder weather arrives. India's imports have been trending higher, with September arrivals of 2.15 million metric tons the most since October 2021. Europe's LNG imports are also showing signs of life, with Kpler estimating October arrivals at 8.58 million metric tons, up from 7.4 million in September.

Persons: Snow, Gary Cameron, Wheatstone, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan, LNG, El, Chevron, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Lusby , Maryland, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Asia, Ukraine, China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, EUROPE, El Nino, Western Australia, Israel, Persian, Qatar, United States

Smoke rises in the aftermath of rocket barrages that were launched from Gaza, in Ashkelon, Israel October 7, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLAUNCESTON, Australia, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices spiked higher in the wake of a massive Hamas attack on Israel, but the relatively modest increase masks the risk of an escalating Middle East conflict. These reactions from two key leaders in the Middle East underscore just how the Hamas attacks are likely to upend relationships in the Middle East. Overall, what the attacks by Hamas have likely achieved, for now at least, is place a pause on moves to normalise political relationships across the Middle East. There is no certainty as to how the current situation will play out, but uncertainty and heightened risks are likely bullish for crude oil prices.

Persons: Amir Cohen, Brent, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ebrahim Raisi, Joe Biden, Biden, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, Hamas, Gaza, United Arab Emirates, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Israeli, Iran, Saudi Arabia, IRAN, Tehran, East, U.S, Saudi, Russia

The trick for the Saudis and the Russians is whether the global economy can withstand an oil price closer to $100 a barrel than the $70 level that prevailed in the middle of 2023. Asia's crude oil imports dropped to 25.05 million bpd in September, the weakest outcome this year and down from 25.22 million bpd in August and 27.92 million bpd in July, according to data compiled by LSEG. China's retail gasoline price has risen from 8.06 yuan ($1.15) a litre at the end of June to 9.04 yuan currently, an increase of 12%. The outlier is India, where retail prices have been kept steady despite being market-linked, at least in theory. The retail price of gasoline in the capital New Delhi is currently 96.76 rupees ($1.16) a litre, a level that has persisted since April last year.

Persons: It's, JP Morgan, LSEG, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, U.S . Energy, Administration, JP, Retail, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, United States, ASIA, Asia, China, India, New Delhi

The world's top importing region saw arrivals of 24.95 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, down from August's 25.22 million bpd, according to data complied by LSEG. September's imports were also almost 3 million bpd weaker than the 27.92 million bpd seen in July, which was the highest monthly total so far in 2023. China imported 11.53 million bpd in September, down from August's 12.49 million bpd, according to LSEG data. Russia was China's top supplier in September, providing 1.81 million bpd, eclipsing the 1.44 million bpd from Saudi Arabia. The main question for Asia's oil demand in the fourth quarter is just how hard the recent price rally will bite demand.

Persons: Vietnam's, China doesn't, Asia's, Jamie Freed Organizations: LSEG, Imports, Reliance Industries, SK Energy's Ulsan, Taiwan's CPC, Brent, U.S, world's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, August's, Jamnagar, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Asia, CHINA, China, Russia, Iran

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 19 (Reuters) - China is building two-thirds of the coal-fired electricity generation capacity currently under construction globally, and this may not be as disastrous for the climate as it sounds. The world's largest producer and importer of coal has 136.24 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generation under construction, according to data released in July by the Global Energy Monitor. China's under-construction coal generation is about 12% of its existing capacity, and adding more coal-fired power would seem incompatible with the stated goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2060. It makes sense from an economic and geopolitical perspective to power China's vehicle fleet using domestic electricity rather than imported crude oil. While it would obviously be better for the environment for China to stop building coal-fired power plants and instead accelerate the deployment of renewables, there is some logic to the current policy.

Persons: it's, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Global Energy Monitor, China Passenger Car Association, Reuters Graphics, ICE, U.S . Department of Energy's, U.S . Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S . Department of Energy's Argonne

This was reversed in August as strong crude imports and steady domestic output outweighed the record refinery processing rates. This was up 19.6% from the same month in 2022 and also stronger than July's 14.87 million bpd. Crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in August, the third-highest daily rate on record and up 20.9% from July and 30.9% from August last year. Subtracting processing of 15.23 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.32 million bpd that flowed into storage tanks. The question is how will China's refiners respond to the higher crude oil prices?

Persons: shouldn't, China doesn't, China's, refiners, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Brent, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, OPEC, pare, Iran, Russia, Venezuela

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The spot price of iron ore has climbed to a five-month high amid improving sentiment and some supportive fundamentals in China, the world's top buyer of the steel raw material. China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, imported 106.42 million metric tons in August, the most since October 2020, according to customs data. For the first eight months of the year, imports were 775.66 million metric tons, up 7.4% on the same period in 2022. The need to rebuild stockpiles and nascent signs of a recovery in the property sector do support the recent rally in iron ore prices. This works out at around 76.7 million metric tons a month, which is well below the 90.8 million produced in July.

Persons: It's, it's, SteelHome, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Dalian Commodity Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Singapore, July's, Beijing

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