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☆ The future of interest rates is more surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.

Persons: Claudio Borio, “, ”, Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. Italy's 2.4 trillion-euro debt pile is the focus in Europe, where the IMF has said high debt leaves governments vulnerable to crisis. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Peter Praet, Praet, Sophia Drossos, Daniel Ivascyn, Claudio Borio, Olivier Blanchard, Ray Dalio, Janet Yellen's, Yellen, Jim Leaviss, Giancarlo Giorgetti, Daleep Singh, Joe Biden, Britain's, Yellen's, Jonathan Portes, Clare Lombardelli, Moritz Kraemer, Yoruk Bahceli, Maria Martinez, Leigh Thomas, Giuseppe Fonte, Nell Mackenzie, Naomi Rovnick, William Schomberg, Jan Strupczewski, Dan Burns, Elisa Martinuzzi, Riddhima Talwani, Jayaram, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, Institute of International Finance, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank for International, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Associates, U.S . Treasury, Wall, Economy, Britain's Treasury, Congressional, Britain's, Institution, Reuters Graphics ACT, King's College London, Labour Party, OECD, Graphics, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Italy, Britain, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Berlin, Paris, Rome, London, Brussels, Washington, Marrakech

High funding needs and central banks removing support are increasing pricing uncertainty for investors, Sophia Drossos, hedge fund Point72 Asset Management's chief economist, said. Spending plans lacking credibility were seen as most likely to spark market turmoil. I suspect not by default, but when markets start reflecting their worries in Treasury prices, by a political crisis and a potentially ugly adjustment," the former IMF chief economist said. "We need more investment, not less," said King's College London professor Jonathan Portes, Britain's cabinet office chief economist during the financial crisis. Not enough reforms are being implemented, OECD chief economist Clare Lombardelli warned.

☆ Morning Bid: Messy market mood as oil irks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Model of Oil barrels are seen in front of rising stock graph in this illustration, July 24, 2022. The crude spur is more supply than demand related and most fingers point to the latest output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Headline inflation rates are already backing up as a result of the energy price rebound and U.S. gas pump prices rose last week to $3.88 per gallon - the highest since October 2022. Stock markets around the world were mixed to positive and U.S. futures were up a fraction ahead of Wall St's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mike Dolan, Claudio Borio, Mehmet Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Energy, Administration, Federal Reserve, Bank for International, U.S, Economic, American Chamber of Commerce, Stock, Kingfisher, . Federal Reserve, Treasury, Turkey's, Goldman, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Treasuries, China, Shanghai, Europe, Canada, New York

☆ Why central banks cannot relax in inflation fight: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, July 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Western policymakers have frantically hiked interest rates to dampen consumer prices. In this Exchange podcast, Claudio Borio, a top official at the Bank for International Settlements, argues that rate-setters need to keep going to ensure costs of living won’t stay elevated. Listen to the podcastFollow @guerreraf72 on TwitterSubscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Oliver TaslicOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Claudio Borio, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Bank for International, Twitter, Thomson

☆ Economy at critical juncture in inflation fight: central-bank body
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio, Marc Jones, Emelia Sihtole Organizations: BIS, LONDON, Bank for International Settlements, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ Central bank body BIS warns world economy at critical juncture in inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called for more interest rate hikes in its 2023 annual report, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Aaron Chown - Pa Images | Pa Images | Getty ImagesThe world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. If interest rates get to mid-1990s levels the overall debt service burden for top economies would, all else being equal, be the highest in history, Borio said. Banking crisesThe Swiss-based BIS held its annual meeting in recent days, where top central bankers discussed the turbulent last few months. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

Persons: Aaron Chown, Stern, Agustin Carstens, Claudio Borio, Borio Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse Locations: Britain, Norway, Silicon

☆ World economy at critical juncture in inflation fight, central-bank body warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Stern challenges must be addressed," Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report published on Sunday. It is the first time that, across much of the world, a surge in inflation has co-existed with widespread financial vulnerabilities. The longer inflation remains elevated, the stronger and prolonged the required policy tightening, the BIS report said, warning that the possibility of further problems in the banking sector was now "material". "Very high debt levels, a remarkable global inflation surge, and the strong pandemic-era increase in house prices check all these boxes," the BIS said. Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act.

☆ BIS urges central banks to 'get the job done'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Central banks need to "get the job done" when it comes to getting inflation back under control, the Bank for International Settlements has said, urging them to avoid the mistakes of the 1970's by declaring victory too early. The BIS, dubbed the bank for central banks, said it was vital authorities didn't repeat the stop-start cycles of the 1970s when interest rates had to be hiked to painfully high levels after attempts to lower them resulted in an inflation surge. "Central banks have been very, very clear that at this stage the most important aspect is to get the job done," the head of the BIS' Monetary and Economic Department, Claudio Borio, said as part of a quarterly report. The BIS' report also included research showing that rate rises are more likely to cause financial system stress when private debt levels are high, although tougher "prudential policies" can reduce the risk and give central banks more room for manoeuvre. Another section looks at how higher commodity prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate significantly affects the risk of stagflation - weak growth and high inflation - especially in developing market economies.

☆ BIS warns of $80 trillion of hidden FX swap debt
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that pension funds and other 'non-bank' financial firms now have more than $80 trillion of hidden, off-balance sheet dollar debt in the form of FX swaps. Its main warning though was what it described as the FX swap debt "blind spot" that risked leaving policymakers in a "fog". FX swap markets, where for example a Dutch pension fund or Japanese insurer borrows dollars and lends euro or yen in the "spot leg" before later repaying them, have a history of problems. For both non-U.S. banks and non-U.S. 'non-banks' such as pension funds, dollar obligations from FX swaps are now double their on-balance sheet dollar debt, it estimated. Market volatilityDINO-MITEOther sections of the report focused on findings from its recent global FX market survey.

With interest rates back then already close to zero, they had run out of conventional ammunition to ward off the threat of outright deflation they feared would choke off the economic recovery. As one Danish bank vaunted the world's first negative rate mortgage, it is likely that cheap borrowing added steam to house price spikes across the region. "It's the central bankers who have taken interest rates to a level where we attach no value to the future," he said. As the negative rate era closes, the global pool of assets with negative yield has shrunk to less than $2 trillion from a 2020 peak of some $18 trillion. "I am very doubtful anyone here is ready to say never again for negative rates."

☆ Morning Bid: Plus fours
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The last time Fed policy rates spent two years above 4% was 2005-2007, in the lead up to the banking crash of 2008. In what bond markets call "bear flattening", yields right out the maturity curve also rose, but by less than the 2-year. read moreAll will have Monday's advice from their umbrella grouping the Bank for International Settlements ringing in their ears. The Bank of Japan will likely hold the line on its easy policy again this week. read moreThe dollar's index was firmer on Tuesday going into the Fed meeting - less than 1% from this month's 20-year high.

☆ BIS backs "forceful" rate hikes despite rising recession risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The tower of the headquarters of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is seen in Basel, Switzerland March 18, 2021. REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannLONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), has urged major economies to forge ahead with forceful interest rate hikes despite the growing threat of recessions and currency market volatility. The Switzerland-based BIS' quarterly report acknowledged that both recession and debt risks were rising, but said that bringing soaring global inflation back down remained paramount. "It is important to act in a timely and forceful way," the head of the BIS' Monetary and Economic Department, Claudio Borio, said. World currencies in 2022Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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