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☆ Expect the unexpected in the jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

In any other month, the finishing touch would be a clean reading on the labor market from the official jobs report. However, a common thread among economists is that the strikes and hurricanes could take a 100,000-job bite out of the October jobs report. The last time there were back-to-back major hurricanes — Harvey and Irma in 2017 — the forecasts for the following month’s jobs report were for a loss of 33,000 positions. And each contribute to two of the biggest numbers in the monthly jobs report. A key date to keep in mind for the jobs report is October 12, as it anchors the “reference period” for both surveys.

Persons: ’, Claudia Sahm, “ It’s, That’s, aren’t, FactSet, Joe Brusuelas, — Harvey, Irma, Sahm, Oliver Allen, Milton, ”, Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, We’re, Biden, Jared Bernstein, Joe Biden’s, “ Organizations: CNN, Boeing, Reserve, New Century Advisors, Labor, Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor, Challenger, ADP, BLS, RSM, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Republicans, The New York Times, Siena College, Associated Press Locations: Washington and Oregon

☆ Expect the unexpected in Friday’s jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

☆ Why the October jobs report on Friday could sink the market's soft-landing narrative
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

September's payrolls report exceeded expectations, but economists see weak gains for October. Even with lower expectations, a poor print could reset the market's narrative around a soft landing. AdvertisementThe narrative around ongoing labor-market strength revived with September's payrolls report, which topped economists' expectations by over 100,000 jobs. "The October jobs report will likely show a severe but short-lived hit from hurricanes Helene and Milton," Adams said. Another sign that September's jobs numbers may have been overstated is that other employment indicators haven't started to trend upwards.

Persons: September's, —, Hurricanes Milton, Helene, Tom Essaye, Ben McMillan, McMillan, Goldman Sachs, there's, Goldman, Claudia Sahm, Michael Cuggino, Bill Adams, Milton, Adams, Neil Dutta, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Dutta Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hurricanes, Boeing, IDX Advisors, of Labor Statistics, Comerica, Funds, Federal Reserve, Macro, BLS, PMI

☆ The job market may be strong, but tell that to anyone looking for work or feeling stuck
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

September's robust job growth signaled what looks like a booming labor market. In general, the job market is booming. There's some tension hiding in the dataOn its face, the labor market is looking rosy. Job openings ticked up in August but have been broadly declining since 2022, adding to the tough labor market picture for job seekers. Related storiesEven though the labor market has cooled, it's largely done so without mass layoffs or a full-blown recession.

Persons: —, Cory Stahle, they're, Liz Wilke, Elizabeth Renter, Matt Colyar, Claudia Sahm, Julie Su, Wilke, It's Organizations: Service, Workers, Moody's, New Century Advisors, mhoff

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

☆ New Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs reportClaudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Friday's jobs data and how it will impact the Federal Reserve's next rate hike decision.

Persons: Claudia Sahm Organizations: Claudia Sahm , New Century Advisors, Fed, Federal Locations: Claudia Sahm ,

☆ Why rate cuts could actually slow the economy instead of sparking growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The consensus view is that lower rates will stave off a recession by stimulating economic growth through lower borrowing costs. The hidden danger of a double cutHowever, David Kelly of JPMorgan Asset Management warned that lower rates aren't an economic panacea. In fact, the chief global strategist thinks these cuts could, paradoxically, cause the economy to slow in the near term. Advertisement"The important thing to recognize is that cutting interest rates at the start doesn't stimulate the economy at all," Kelly said on CNBC. "There is a J-curve effect; it actually slows the economy because people begin to anticipate those lower rates, so they want to wait for lower rates."

Persons: —, Jim Caron, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell, Sahm, Ronald Temple, Kevin Philip of, David Kelly, Kelly, what's, you've, Kelly isn't, it's, they've Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Fed, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, CNBC, New Century Advisors, Lazard, Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors, JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ Fed's 50bps cut may send wrong message to equity markets, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's 50bps cut may send wrong message to equity markets, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Claudia Sahm, New Century chief economist; and Jim Caron, CIO of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to break down the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points and what it means for markets.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly, Claudia Sahm, Jim Caron Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Claudia Sahm , New, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Locations: Claudia Sahm ,

☆ Recession is not imminent, says New Century Advisors' Claudia Sahm
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession is not imminent, says New Century Advisors' Claudia SahmClaudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors; Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group; and Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale, join ‘The Exchange’ to discuss their expectations from the Fed, why the Fed is finally cutting rates, and more

Persons: Claudia Sahm Claudia Sahm, Jamie Cox, Subadra Rajappa Organizations: Advisors, New Century Advisors, Harris Financial Group, Societe Generale

☆ Fed 50 basis-point cut is a 'risk management' decision, says New Century's Claudia Sahm
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed 50 basis-point cut is a 'risk management' decision, says New Century's Claudia SahmDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Claudia Sahm, New Century chief economist; and Jim Caron, CIO of cross-asset solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to break down the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis- points and what it means for markets.

Persons: Claudia Sahm David Kelly, Claudia Sahm, Jim Caron Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management, Claudia Sahm , New, Morgan Stanley Investment Management Locations: Claudia Sahm ,

☆ The Fed has the proof it wants that inflation is slowing, but the next move is still up in the air
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A week's worth of inflation data showed that price pressures have eased substantially since their meteoric rise in 2021-22. "We got two more months of good inflation data" since the last Fed meeting, Claudia Sahm, chief economist for New Century Advisors, said in a CNBC interview Friday. Futures markets for most of the past week had lasered in on a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis point, rate cut. The inflation data "on its own would have gotten us 25 next week, as it should, and will get us a whole string of cuts after that," she said. [Fed officials] need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut and then be ready to do more."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, Sahm Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, Federal Reserve, Federal, New Century Advisors, CNBC, Fed Locations: Washington ,

☆ The most well-known recession indicator stopped flashing red, but now another one is going off
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. Still, there are plenty of instances when the yield curve uninverted and a recession wasn’t right around the corner. The most recent prior case of the yield curve uninverting was September 2019. (Disinversion and uninversion are both used to refer to a yield curve that returns to being in positive territory.) One reason she isn’t on edge is because the yield curve was inverted for a much longer stretch of time compared to other recent recessions.

Persons: that’s, Marco Giacoletti, ” “, Kristina Hooper, Hooper, ” Kevin Flanagan, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Flanagan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, CNN Locations: New York

☆ The U.S. economy is not in a recession right now, says New Century's Claudia Sahm
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is not in a recession right now, says New Century's Claudia SahmClaudia Sahm, former Fed economist and New Century Advisors chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economist's namesake rule, triggers for the recession, and much more.

Persons: Claudia Sahm Claudia Sahm Organizations: New Century Advisors

☆ The Fed needs to 'start getting out of the way' and deliver a big rate cut next week, famed economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economist Claudia Sahm urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Sahm cites solid inflation progress and a slowing labor market as reasons for the big rate cut. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve "absolutely" needs to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut next week, according to famed economist Claudia Sahm. We need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut, and then be ready to do more," Sahm said. AdvertisementInvestors are undecided as to what the Fed will do at its FOMC meeting next week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a near 50/50 split probability between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut as of Friday morning.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, Powell, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, CNBC, Fed, Atlanta

☆ Why you shouldn't worry about the job market and a recession just yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.

Persons: —, there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US

☆ Inflation cooled in July, adding to the case for interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ There's a 40% chance the US economy is already in a recession, according to a new indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job vacancy data in addition to unemployment data. The closely watched Sahm rule was triggered earlier this month after a weak July jobs report. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThere's a new recession indicator that's making waves, and it says there's a 40% probability the US is already in a recession.

Persons: —, there's, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Claudia Sahm — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ Jobs Report Shows the Labor Market Is in Danger, Recession Possible
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The jobs report said the US economy added 114,000 jobs in July, far fewer than the 176,000 jobs that economists expected. The weakness of the jobs report tipped the worry scale and sent markets into meltdown mode. Outside the July jobs report, there were plenty of signs the labor market was cooling off. If that seems confusing, here's the only thing you really need to know: The July jobs report triggered the Sahm rule. Nobody should be losing a ton of sleep over the state of the labor market or over the economy overall.

Persons: it's, Guy Berger, doesn't, Skanda Amarnath, there's, what's, Claudia Sahm, we're, Amarnath, Alí Bustamante, Bustamante, would've, it'll, Jay Powell, Berger, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve, Glass, Labor, Survey, New Century Advisors, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, Fed, Business

☆ Everything you wanted to know about the market meltdown but were too afraid to ask
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In today's big story, we're giving a full breakdown of what has been a wild few days for the market . Tech: Big Tech is going through a bit of a mid-life crisis . Big Tech is going through a bit of a . There are a few factors at play here:Big Tech, the backbone of the market, had weaker-than-expected earnings last week. The decision could seriously hurt Google's revenue and may signal more antitrust enforcement to come for other Big Tech companies .

Persons: —, Airbnb, Rebecca Zisser, We're, what's, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, I'm, Claudia Sahm, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Griffin, it's, Natalie Ammari, That's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Oracle, Fed, Nvidia, Bank of America, Google Locations: Japan, Berkshire, Omaha, Asia, bitcoin, Florida, New York, London

☆ A widely followed recession signal just flashed, but its inventor says a downturn isn't guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The US economy is still growing," said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, a former Federal Reserve economist, and the creator of the Sahm rule. Despite rebuking the idea that the US is in a recession, Sahm does have concerns about the labor market and high interest rates. Advertisement"The most important lever to pull is to normalize interest rates," Sahm said, joining a chorus of economists who say the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in its July meeting at the end of the month. It's not surprising that the labor market has cooled after the booming post-pandemic recovery.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, It's, it's Organizations: Service, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve, Business, Fed

☆ Everyone is talking about the Sahm recession indicator. Here’s what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A weaker-than-expected July jobs report on Friday officially triggered the Sahm rule. "We are not in a recession now — contrary the historical signal from the Sahm rule — but the momentum is in that direction," Sahm told CNBC by email on Friday. That frankly is not good enough, we can do better than avoiding a recession," Sahm told CNBC's "The Exchange." Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building on July 31, 2024 in Washington, DC. In mid-June, Sahm told CNBC that the U.S. central bank risked tipping the economy into contraction by not cutting interest rates sooner.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, we're, CNBC's, Dario Perkins, Perkins, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik Organizations: Federal, CNBC, U.S . Federal, New Century Advisors, New, Lombard, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve, Getty, U.S Locations: U.S, Washington , DC

☆ Our bend-don't-break economy is reaching its limit
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, interest-rate cuts are almost certainly coming, but the relief won't be felt immediately . The big storyCrash landingKevin Dietsch/Getty, Tyler Le/BIOur bend-don't-break economy might finally have reached its limit. After a year of resiliency in the face of high interest rates, the cracks are showing in the US economy. But it's not a silver bullet, and the rate cut's effect will take time to make its way through the economy.

Persons: —, Kevin Dietsch, Tyler Le, it's, Chelsea Jia Feng, Claudia Sahm, Madison Hoff, McDonald's, Jared Siskin, Bobby, Jordan Grumet, Justin Best, Brian Stauffer, Michal Kosinski, Rob Price, sompong, Seng kui Lim, Getty, Joe Biden's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Relief, Getty, Fed, Amazon, Big Tech, Madison, Park Conservancy, Citadel, FIRE, Union Square Advisors, Nvidia, America Locations: resiliency, Central, Switzerland, Canada, Park, Paris, New York, London

☆ 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.

Persons: , July’s, ’, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American

☆ 2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund

Read previewThe July jobs report has thrown the economy's soft landing into question — and the Federal Reserve is taking the heat. AdvertisementGiven the jobs report, Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that "the soft landing for the US labor market is in peril." Advertisement"The problem is there's very few indications that this is the labor market we're going to stick around in," Bunker said. "It's clear that momentum of the labor market continues to be downward. "But I continue to stand by the idea that this is still part of the soft landing that people thought was not possible."

Persons: —, it's, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Jerome Powell, Julia Pollak, It's, We're, Bunker, Powell, Harris, doesn't, Labor Julie Su, Su, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, North America, New Century Advisors, Fed, Biden, Labor

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