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On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.
Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna
New York CNN —The state of Maryland is about to get an insurance payment of $350 million related to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in late March, according to the broker handling its policy on the structure. The payment would come from insurer Chubb, which has a $350 million limit on the policy it had written on the bridge, according to Henry Daar, head of property claims, North America for WTW, the broker on the policy. The payment will be made soon rather than waiting for the construction of a new bridge to begin, a process that could be years away. The accident temporarily closed much of the operations of the Port of Baltimore, trapping ships in the port. The planned payment by Chubb was first reported Thursday by the Wall Street Journal.
Persons: Francis Scott Key, Chubb, Henry Daar, Dali Organizations: New, New York CNN, Francis Scott Key Bridge, WTW, Grace Ocean Private Limited, Synergy Marine PTE LTD, CNN, National Transportation, Wall Street Locations: New York, Maryland, North America, Baltimore, Port of Baltimore
Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer said investors should not sell based on macroeconomic uncertainty. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, Eaton, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, GE Healthcare, Club, Management Locations: Eaton
New York CNN —Many more new 401(k) “millionaires” were created last year, but the overall number remains low, according to data released Tuesday. The average 401(k) balance rose to $118,600 at the end of the fourth quarter, up 14% for the year. And 78% of 401(k) savers were contributing at a rate high enough to get their employer’s full matching contribution. Between employee and employer contributions, the average savings rate last year was 13.9%, up slightly from 13.7% a year earlier. “This past year ended on a high note for retirement savers,” said Sharon Brovelli, president of Workplace Investing at Fidelity Investments.
Persons: , Gen Xers, Fidelity, Sharon Brovelli Organizations: New, New York CNN, Fidelity Investments, Fidelity, Labor Statistics Locations: New York, United States
For instance, the U.S. has blocked shipments of cotton coming from China, a top manufacturer of popular clothing brands, because it was produced by forced or prison labor. While prison labor seeps into the supply chains of some companies through third-party suppliers without them knowing, others buy direct. Cargill acknowledged buying goods from prison farms in Tennessee, Arkansas and Ohio, saying they constituted only a small fraction of the company’s overall volume. For instance, about a dozen state prison farms, including operations in Texas, Virginia, Kentucky and Montana, have sold more than $60 million worth of cattle since 2018. “What for?”FOLLOWING THE MONEYThe business of prison labor is so vast and convoluted that tracing the money can be challenging.
Persons: it’s, Willie Ingram, “ They’d, billy clubs, they’d, , Ingram, didn’t, they’re, don’t, Andrea Armstrong, Frank Dwayne Ellington, Ellington, Koch, “ It’s, it’s somebody’s, Alishia Powell, Clark, , Bunge, Louis Dreyfus, Archer Daniels, Cargill, ” McDonald’s, Mills, ” Bunge, Burger, Jermaine Hudson, ” Hudson, Calvin Thomas, Thomas, Ken Pastorick, Pastorick, Jennifer Turner, Faye Jacobs, Jacobs, ’ ” David Farabough, they’ve, Joshua Sbicca, Cliff Johnson, Jimmy Dean, Sara Lee, Tyson, Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey, that’s, ” Ivey, “ They’re, ’ ”, William “ Buck ” Saunders, Hickman’s, Brooke Counts, Counts, John’s, Jack Strain, Tammany Parish, Russell Stover, Curtis Davis, Robert Bumsted, Cody Jackson, Columbia University’s Ira A, Lipman Organizations: Louisiana State Penitentiary, The Associated Press, Walmart, Cargill, U.S, Kroger, Target, Aldi, Corrections, Loyola University New Orleans, Koch Foods, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, Washington, Archer Daniels Midland, Consolidated, AP, Foods, Dairy Farmers of, Big, Sam’s, Tyson Foods, U.S ., Civilian, OSHA, Fair Labor, American Civil Liberties, Colorado State University, MacArthur Justice Center, University of Mississippi, PepsiCo, Brevard County Sheriff, Arizona . Companies, Costco, Correctional, Prisons, Nut, Maine Foods, Taylor Farms, Transitional, Associated Press, Public Welfare Foundation, Columbia, Lipman Center for Journalism, Arnold Ventures Locations: ANGOLA, La, Southern, Louisiana, Texas, In Louisiana, Angola, United States, , Ashland, U.S, China, Tennessee , Arkansas, Ohio, Dairy Farmers of America, Texas , Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Baton Rouge, Mississippi, Manhattan, America, Alabama, American, Arkansas , Texas, Florida , Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas, In Alabama, Florida, Brevard County, Arizona, Wisconsin, California, Colorado, state’s St, Tammany, Idaho, In Kansas, Cal, St, Francisville , Louisiana, Feliciana, Investigative@ap.org
Wall Street is headed into the thick of earnings season, with results on deck from the bulk of the so-called Magnificent Seven names. On top of that, the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision and the January jobs report will be in focus. Federal Reserve meeting Investors aren't anticipating much out of the Fed meeting next week. Market participants say recent reports show the trends have been going in the right direction, and Friday's report is expected to confirm the softening in the jobs market. Other significant earnings in the week ahead include Boeing , a major Dow component.
Persons: Russell, we've, Shannon Saccocia, Jonathan Krinsky, Tesla, that'll, Hogan, you've, John Bailer, Jerome Powell, Tony Welch, Welch, FactSet Organizations: Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, JPMorgan, Riley Securities, Newton Investment Management, Fed, PCE, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Dallas, Whirlpool, Petroleum, United Parcel Service, General Motors, Pfizer, Devices, ADP, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Apple, Chevron, Exxon Mobil Locations: Thursday's, nonfarm payrolls, Chicago, Royal Caribbean, Michigan
Wage growth has slowed; average hourly earnings increased 4.1% year over year in October. That measure of wage growth has steadily slid from the almost 6% year-over-year increases in March 2022 and April 2022. Even with slowing wage growth, workers may finally be seeing their earnings catch up to the big spike in inflation. Year-over-year changes from BLS show there has been real wage growth in recent months, based on average hourly earnings outpacing CPI inflation. "I think if we continue to see wage growth moderate, hopefully inflation moderates even more, and we continue to see more workers getting more inflation-adjusted raises."
Persons: , Julia Pollak, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Economics, Wells, Wells Fargo Bank, BLS, North America Locations: Wells Fargo
The Federal Reserve meeting and October jobs report are on the docket next week as investors wrap up a brutal month for markets. Both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid into correction territory this week following some disappointing megacap tech reports. "I suspect that the Fed is not going to comfort the market," said James Camp, managing director at Eagle Asset Management. Many investors expect stocks could remain choppy until the markets gain clarity on when the Fed will start to cut rates. Jobs report Investors will get another look into the labor market next week soon after the Fed decision.
Persons: Jerome Powell, James Camp, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Dow Jones, Nick Galluccio, you'll, Powell, Charlie Ripley, Ripley, Galluccio, we've, Eli Lilly Organizations: Reserve, Nasdaq, Eagle Asset Management, Fed, Teton Advisors, Treasury, Asset, Apple, Investors, Allianz Investment Management, Advisors, Dallas Fed, Simon Property, Semiconductor, Western, ECI Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, Devices, Caesars Entertainment, Pfizer, GE Healthcare Technologies, Caterpillar, ADP, PMI, Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, Qualcomm, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Labor, Factory, News Corp, Booking Holdings, Paramount Global, Moderna, Jobs, Services PMI, Health Locations: U.S, FactSet, Chicago
Staff, meanwhile, have been forced to put their real jobs on hold to prepare for the looming shutdown. National parksThe National Park Service plans to close its parks and furlough park rangers if the government shuts down on Sunday. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, the parks themselves remained accessible, but without most services. Some presidential libraries would remain open as long as they have sufficient funds, but others would close and research services would be reduced. A shutdown would result in a "data blackout" of critical economic statistics that influence markets and businesses around the globe.
Persons: Donald Trump, that's, Biden, Joshua, Armando L, Sanchez, Pete Buttigieg, they're, White, Treasury Department furloughed, shutdowns Organizations: Yosemite, Fresno Bee, Tribune, Service, Getty, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Management, Staff, National Park Service, Park Service, Department of Interior, NBC, Congressional Research Service, National Zoo, U.S . Holocaust, Museum, National, Science, National Science Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control, Prevention, FBI Agents Association, FBI, Air, Transportation Security, LaGuardia, TSA, O'Hare International, State Department, Consular, Education Department, AmeriCorps, Agriculture Department, Assistance, Women, Small Business Administration, Federal Housing Administration, Social, Consumer, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety, Environmental Protection Agency, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, Labor, , Social Security, Medicare, Treasury Department, Foreign Assets Control, Russia Locations: El Capitan, Yosemite Valley, Washington, Civil, U.S, Europe, Southeast Asia, New Mexico, shutdowns, New York, Chicago, Russia, Iran, Ukraine
Federal agencies will stop all actions deemed non-essential, and millions of federal employees, including members of the military, won't receive paychecks. A shutdown happens when Congress fails to pass some type of funding legislation that is signed into law by the president. Millions of federal workers face delayed paychecks when the government shuts down, including many of the roughly 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million civilian workers across the nation. Nearly 60% of federal workers are stationed in the Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security departments. Beyond federal workers, a shutdown could have far-reaching effects on government services.
Persons: Samuel Corum, Kevin McCarthy's, Goldman Sachs, General Merrick Garland, Donald Trump, Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Republicans defund, Benjamin Civiletti, Bill Clinton's, Newt Gingrich Organizations: Getty, Democratic, Republican, Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security, Transportation Security, Postal Service, U.S . Travel Industry Association, Lawmakers, U.S . Chamber, Commerce, Republicans, U.S, Democrats Locations: Washington , DC, shutdowns
Federal agencies will stop all actions deemed non-essential, and millions of federal employees, including members of the military, won't receive paychecks. A shutdown happens when Congress fails to pass some type of funding legislation that is signed into law by the president. Millions of federal workers face delayed paychecks when the government shuts down, including many of the roughly 2 million military personnel and more than 2 million civilian workers across the nation. Nearly 60% of federal workers are stationed in the Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security departments. Beyond federal workers, a shutdown could have far-reaching effects on government services.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy's, Goldman Sachs, , General Merrick Garland, Donald Trump, Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Trump, Republicans defund, Benjamin Civiletti, Bill Clinton's, Newt Gingrich, isn't, Fatima Hussein, Lindsay Whitehurst, Josh Boak, Lisa Mascaro Organizations: WASHINGTON, Democratic, Republican, WHO, Defense, Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security, Transportation Security, Postal Service, U.S . Travel Industry Association, Lawmakers, U.S . Chamber, Commerce, Republicans, U.S, Democrats, Senate, Associated Locations: shutdowns
The US economy has too many green flags to slip into a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Consumer inflation expectations have plunged over the past few years – another positive indicator for the economy. One-year forward inflation expectations slumped to 3.6% in September, according to the New York Fed, down from the 6.8% recorded in June 2022. Shelter prices are the largest contributor of inflation in the economy, and rent prices have plunged from their 2021 peaks. AdvertisementAdvertisementApartment List's National Rent Index dropped to -1.2% in August, down from a nearly 20% increase in rent prices in late 2021.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, Janet Yellen Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
Investors might be more sensitive to a shutdown this time around, however. With only weeks to go before the deadline, the Republican-led House of Representatives has approved only one of those 12 bills. 'LESS FRIENDLY POLICY'If it occurs, the shutdown would be the fourth over the last decade and would furlough roughly three of out five federal civilian workers. The White House last month said it was working with Congress to hammer out a short-term funding measure to avoid a shutdown while longer-term spending talks continue. Analysts at Ned Davis Research said a shutdown could add to factors threatening to roil the economy into next year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Goldman Sachs, Fitch, , Jamie Cox, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Ned Davis, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Goldman, Social, Federal, Harris Financial Group, Caucus, House Republican, Republican, Senate, Congressional, Office, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Democrats, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CFRA Research, Thomson Locations: Wells Fargo
Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon
New York CNN —The White House and House GOP negotiators are rushing to finalize a deal to raise the country’s debt limit. With that X-date only about one week away, there’s still no deal to raise the debt ceiling – putting Americans’ finances in danger. If you invest in bonds, pay attention to when your Treasury bills are maturing. Stick with high-quality investmentsSteer clear of corporate junk bonds or emerging market bonds, CNN has previously reported. Federal government contractors could also see a lag in payments, which could affect their ability to compensate their workers, CNN previously reported.
In that instance, S&P Global Ratings credit rating agency downgraded the government from AAA to AA+ credit rating. The federal government maintains a perfect credit rating from Fitch and Moody’s, but that could change as the stalemate drags on. Investors care about stability and predictability, so a credit rating downgrade would send a chill down Wall Street’s spine. The broadest economic impact of a US debt default would be a recession that would encompass the global economy, including sharp job losses. And the housing market would not be spared by the “economic calamity” of a US government default, as Yellen once described it.
This week, the Federal Reserve will likely announce the third interest rate hike this year. But a pause on interest rate hikes could be in the cards in June. There was a massive slowdown in the year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index from February to March — dropping from 6.0% to 5.0%. The personal consumption expenditures price index also suggests a cooldown but is still elevated, with the year-over-year rate falling from 5.1% in February to 4.2% in March. Following the March interest rate hike, Warren wrote on Twitter that "Powell made a mistake not pausing its extreme interest rate hikes."
14TH AMENDMENTSection Four of 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, adopted after the 1861-1865 Civil War, states that the "validity of the public debt of the United States ... shall not be questioned." Some experts have suggested that Biden could invoke this amendment to raise the debt ceiling on his own if Congress does not act. BYPASS REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIPDemocrats and rank-and-file Republican allies in the House could bypass McCarthy and force a vote on a "clean" debt ceiling increase, free of spending cuts or other conditions. GET RID OF ITCongress could vote to abolish the debt ceiling entirely, which would eliminate the need to vote on the issue periodically but also erode Congress's authority on fiscal matters. Attempts to abolish the debt ceiling have gotten no traction in Congress in recent years.
New York CNN —Employers continued to raise wages during the fourth quarter to attract workers and hold on to existing staff, though the pace of the increases slowed from the previous quarter. Wages and salaries for civilian workers increased by 1% in the fourth quarter and by 5.1% for the year ending in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ quarterly Employment Cost Index released Tuesday. This reflected a slowdown from the third quarter, when wages and salaries increased 1.3% quarter over quarter. Economists expected the index to increase by 1.1% in the fourth quarter, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. The ECI tracks changes in employers’ labor costs for wages and salaries, along with health, retirement and other benefits.
To win bipartisan support for the bill, Democrats agreed to Republican demands to scrap the requirement for service members to get a Covid-19 vaccination. The bill directs Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to rescind his August 2021 memorandum imposing the mandate. Rep. Adam Smith, Democratic chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, told colleagues that the decision to impose the vaccine mandate was the right call at the time. While the rescission of the Covid-19 vaccine mandate has generated much attention, it takes up one paragraph of what is a 4,408-page bill. This year’s bill authorizes money to support a $4.6% pay raise for military members and the Defense Department’s civilian workers.
Roughly 1 in 5 civilian workers in the U.S. don’t have paid sick leave, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. Paid sick leave was at the heart of the dispute between rail workers and freight companies, with some workers demanding seven days paid sick leave. Many sick leave mandates allow workers to take 5 to 8 paid sick days, depending on how many hours they work and the number of employees in the business. Several states including these four have passed legislation blocking cities and counties from enacting paid sick leave. In 2021, Texas became the latest to ban municipal ordinances requiring businesses to provide paid sick leave.
The US does not have a national standard on paid sick leave, a rarity among industrialized nations. “The most disempowered workers – who are low-wage workers – don’t have an opportunity to demand paid sick leave from their employers,” he said. Railroad workers’ battleWhile the vast majority of union members have paid sick days, the freight railroad workers do not. Meanwhile, a growing number of states, cities and counties have been enacting paid sick leave laws in recent years. Advocates see the railroad workers’ battle as an opportunity to renew interest in expanding the availability of paid sick leave.
New York CNN Business —Employers continued hiking wages to attract workers and hold on to existing staff during the third quarter. Wages and salaries for civilian workers increased by 1.3% in the third quarter and 5.1% over the year ending in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ quarterly Employment Cost Index released Friday. This reflects a slight slowdown from the second quarter, when wages and salaries increased 1.4% quarter over quarter and 5.3% for the year ending in June. Overall, employers’ compensation costs, which includes both pay and benefits, increased by 1.2% in the third quarter, before accounting for inflation. The Employment Cost Index tracks changes in employers’ labor costs for wages and salaries, along with health, retirement and other benefits.
When some remote workers get sick, they decide to log on for work anyway. Research says workers think they'll feel guilty if they take off; they feel more guilty for working. Workers need to feel comfortable deciding to take time off, and feel comfortable articulating those boundaries. The problem is, Gerpott said, that "human beings are very bad at predicting how they will actually feel." Instead, workers feel more guilty — because they couldn't help their colleagues or themselves very well.
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