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David Rosenberg warned the buzz around stocks today is similar to the mania before past crashes. The economist noted that American consumers are running short of cash and struggling to borrow more. The veteran economist and Rosenberg Research president also rang the alarm on the US economy in a research note on Wednesday. "The balloon does have a lot of hot air in it," Rosenberg noted, suggesting it was hard to say when speculation and emotion would cease trumping fundamentals and rational thought. That has raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, and wreaked havoc on debt-fueled industries such as commercial real estate.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Irving Fisher, Abby Joseph Cohen, Chuck Prince's doozy, you've, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, North, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Big Tech, Consumers, New York, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American
Right now though, the market has never been more top-heavy and the share of market constituents outperforming the broader index has never been lower. According to Ed Clissold at Ned Davis Research, the percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P 500 this year is just 24.5%. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index on a rolling three-month basis is just 20.3%, a record low. Clissold says that the S&P 500's one-year gain after periods of relative strength by a small group of large caps is an average 1.8%. These five stocks account for over a quarter of the S&P 500's $36.78 trillion market cap, and the top 10 account for a third of the total.
Persons: bode, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Meb Faber, Chuck Prince's, Cambria's Faber, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: NYSE, Barclays, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Reuters, Google, Cambria Investment Management, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
The average year-to-date losses on Thanksgiving days in these years was 10.5%, and the average rise post-Thanksgiving through Dec. 31 was 1.5%. The S&P 500's year-to-date loss on Thanksgiving Thursday this year was 15.5%, having been down as much as 27% in mid-October. chartIf ever there was a year Wall Street was primed to register an above-average whoosh in the last few trading weeks of the year, this is it. Even beyond investors' instinctive "FOMO" (fear of missing out) on the upswing underway, positioning is extremely light and portfolios are historically underweight stocks. Relative to average positioning over the past 10 years, investors' biggest underweight position this month is in stocks.
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