"Incredibly, the Fed raised rates 500 basis points under a false presumption — by over one million — of just how robust the jobs market was," Rosenberg said.
AdvertisementIn addition to the yearly revisions, monthly payroll revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have also been poor more recently.
Related storiesOne is a model that aims to enhance the yield curve as a recession indicator by taking into account US businesses' ability to repay debts and the Fed's National Financial Conditions Index.
A soft-landing outcome, where the Fed avoids sending the economy into recession, is also still the consensus view on Wall Street.
With inflation down under 3% and rate cuts almost surely on the way, such a scenario is still seemingly possible.
Persons:
—, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez, Vane, Chuck Prince, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Powell
Organizations:
Service, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Treasury, Pantheon, Labor
Locations:
Jackson Hole , Wyoming