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But the surveys also reveal a noticeable gap in support between the pro-abortion rights amendments and the Democratic presidential and Senate candidates who are campaigning on a pro-abortion rights platform. Pro-abortion rights ballot measures won in every state where they appeared on the ballot, including conservative-leaning ones, in the 2022 and 2023 elections. Similarly in Arizona, a proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution has clear majority support. In Montana, there’s little evidence that the presence of an abortion rights amendment has had a major effect on the race between three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. For example, in Missouri, public polling indicates broad support for a constitutional amendment to enshrine abortion rights, while Republican Sen. Josh Hawley and Trump hold strong leads in their races.

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The central clash in the pivotal Senate race in Montana — and the fight for control of the Senate itself — was on full display Monday night as Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate. Like other vulnerable Senate Democrats, Tester tried to make it personal — touting his bipartisan bona fides, highlighting his own connections to his red-leaning state and suggesting his opponent cannot be trusted. Montana is the party’s next top target, with Tester running for re-election in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2020. James Richmond, 50, an IT consultant and voter in Helena, pointed to those comments in explaining why he plans to support Sheehy, despite supporting Tester’s work for veterans. An AARP poll conducted in late August found Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, 55% to 49%.

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