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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTD Cowen breaks down what investors should watch for in the presidential electionChris Krueger, TD Cowen managing director, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the markets could respond depending on the election outcome.
Persons: Cowen, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen
"Should Biden leave the race, we would not immediately change our electoral odds (60% Trump vs. 40% Biden/Dem). However, we would note that the policies of a potential Harris administration would largely align with those of President Biden," Mills said. "The primary market moves on election night will come through the equity side as a result of significant regulatory policy divergences. Under a Biden win, it will be status quo in markets. With a Trump win, [stocks] will get some serious legs," Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said in a Friday note to clients.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Raymond James Washington, Ed Mills, Stocks, Trump, Harris, Mills, MAGA, TD Cowen, Chris Krueger, David Zervos Organizations: NBC, Trump, Biden, Federal, Democratic, Traders, Republican, Democratic Party, GOP, Senate, Jefferies
Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, , Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump’s trade agenda amounts to a tripling-down of the trade war he waged during his first term in office. That’s nearly five times the total cost as a share of GDP from the 2018-2019 US-China trade war. Trump’s tariff proposals would cost the typical middle-income household at least $1,700 a year, the researchers found. Those aren’t comparable numbers,” Clausing said, referring to the amount of imports targeted by Biden and by Trump tariffs. Likewise, the US International Trade Commission found in a 2023 study that US importers “bore nearly the full cost” of tariffs.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, That’s, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, Clausing, aren’t, , Joe Biden, , Biden, ” Biden hasn’t, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, ” Clausing, Karoline Leavitt, , Bidenomics, ” Leavitt, Leavitt, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, ” Goldman Sachs, ” ‘, ” Chris Krueger Organizations: New, New York CNN, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, UCLA School of Law, CNN, ” Biden, Biden, Treasury Department, US International Trade Commission, , Cowen’s Washington Research Group Locations: New York, China, Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, Washington
New York CNN —Fitch Ratings is keeping the United States on watch for a potential credit rating downgrade even after Congress passed a last-minute bill to avert a disastrous default. Although the resolution to the debt ceiling fight is a “positive,” Fitch expressed deep concern about the recurring brinksmanship and worsening polarization in Washington. That reasoning is similar to the rationale behind the downgrade by S&P in 2011 – an unprecedented step that occurred after Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling. The latest debt ceiling battle has prompted more calls for reform or even eliminating the debt ceiling. This isn’t the first time the credit ratings firm has sounded the alarm about the messy state of affairs in America.
Persons: New York CNN — Fitch, Fitch, ” Fitch, “ Fitch, Richard Francis, Francis, Joe Biden, Chris Krueger, ” Krueger, , James McCormack, Fitch’s, ” McCormack Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Fitch, AAA, House Republicans, Congressional, Cowen’s Washington Research Group, Security, Medicaid, Fed, Treasury Locations: New York, United States, Washington, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCowen's Chris Krueger explains the 3 issues facing markets in debt ceiling dealChris Krueger, Washington Strategist at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest on the debt ceiling negotiations, and whether the tentative deal can be passed before June 5th.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'It's largely going to be the center' that carries debt ceiling deal, says Cowen’s Chris KruegerChris Krueger, TD Cowen Washington Research Group strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest in debt ceiling negotiations, and whether a deal can be reached before the U.S. defaults on its debt.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're still in the very early days of debt ceiling showdown, says Cowen's Chris KruegerChris Krueger, Cowen Washington strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the showdown over the debt ceiling in Washington.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDebt ceiling impact on markets could be worse than 2011, says Cowen's KruegerChris Krueger, managing director at Cowen Washington Research Group, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the debt limit fight and its impact on markets.
Changes to House rules could bring new investment risks
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChanges to House rules could bring new investment risksChris Krueger, Washington Research Group strategist at Cowen and Company, and Sarah Chamberlain, president and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership, join 'The Exchange' to discuss how new House rules will could impact investment strategy and risk assessment.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCowen's Chris Krueger breaks down GOP infighting for House SpeakerChris Krueger, managing director at Cowen Washington Research Group, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the chaos within the GOP voting for a House speaker.
New York CNN —Many on Wall Street cheered last fall when the midterm elections ushered in a return of divided government in Washington. But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. Buckle up for debt ceiling brinksmanshipBut lawmakers did not agree to tackle the debt ceiling, the borrowing limit that must be raised to avoid a calamitous US debt default. In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both. Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”“It’s all about the Fed,” Frankel said.
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