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☆ China's retirement crisis is here, and Beijing will be forced to keep raising the retirement age, demographer says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China has no choice but to keep raising the retirement age for workers, according to Yi Fuxian. AdvertisementChina has a retirement crisis on its hands, and the nation will probably be forced to keep raising the retirement age for workers to stave off demographic imbalances, according to a demographer. Those trends led China to recently raise the mandatory retirement age for workers, the first time the nation has raised its retirement age in decades. "Given the severity of its demographic crisis, China will need to keep raising its retirement age, potentially fueling civil unrest and political instability," Yi said. China's main pension fund could be depleted by 2035, according to a 2019 estimate from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Persons: Yi Fuxian, —, Fuxian, Yi Organizations: Service, Syndicate, Bank, nation's Ministry of Civil Affairs, China National, Ageing, United Nations, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Reuters Locations: China

☆ Yet another one of China's elite has disappeared after criticizing Xi Jinping
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Hannah Abraham | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Zhu Hengpeng disappeared after criticizing Xi Jinping, according to The Wall Street Journal. Zhu is believed to have criticized China's economy and Xi's leadership in a private WeChat group. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA top economist has joined the growing list of China's elite to have disappeared from public life after criticizing Xi Jinping, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Persons: Zhu Hengpeng, Xi, Zhu, —, CASS, Chen Daoyin Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Shanghai University of Political Science, Law, Business

☆ China raising its retirement age may be unpopular but it's much needed, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.

Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing

☆ For decades, Chinese workers have retired relatively early. That’s about to change
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Simone Mccarthy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Hong Kong CNN —For decades, Chinese workers have wrapped up their working lives at relatively young ages: 60 for men and as early as 50 for women. The announcement sparked immediate widespread discussion – and backlash – across Chinese social media. Some social media users appeared encouraged that the changes weren’t more drastic and included some flexibility. Major protests erupted in France in 2023 in response to a government attempt to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. Even for those of working age, employment remains a steep challenge following the pandemic and a raft of government-led industry crackdowns in recent years.

Persons: ”, Yuan Xin, Yuan, Demographers, It’s Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Xinhua, Communist Party, Weibo, China Population Association, Nankai University, for Economic Co, Development, Social, Communist, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Employers Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, China, Tianjin, France, Communist China

☆ Retiring at 50 has long been a guarantee for parts of China's working class — until now
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But experts and think tanks have long said this is a policy change that an aging China desperately needs. It's currently running a lopsided policy of letting women retire up to 10 years earlier despite them living significantly longer on average than men. The pension problemKey to the retirement overhaul are China's pension funds. AdvertisementMost Chinese workers receive a state pension, which can be boosted by retirement funds from employers and personal contributions. Experts say that either way, Beijing will need more than a simple policy change to fix its crisis.

Persons: —, Sabrina Luk, Shaun Rein, Luk, It's, Gu Qingyang, CASS, it's, Louis Vuitton, Gu, Rein Organizations: Service, Business, Nanyang Technological University, China Market Research Group, Academy of Social Sciences, National University of Singapore, Louis Locations: Beijing, France, China, Xiaohongshu, Weibo, Singapore, Shanghai, Asia, East Asia

☆ China’s leaders have floated the idea of raising the retirement age. It hasn’t gone down well
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The retirement age for female urban workers is 50 or 55 depending on their occupation. “In accordance with the principles of voluntariness and flexibility, [we] will steadily and orderly advance the reform of progressively delaying the statutory retirement age,” China’s ruling Communist Party said on Sunday. Tingshu Wang/ReutersStruggling with declining birth rate and an ageing population, China’s policymakers have been talking about increasing the retirement age for over a decade. On Weibo, the hashtag “advancing the reform of delaying retirement age” has been a top trending topic since Sunday. On Xiaohongshu, China’s equivalent of Instagram, the hashtag “retirement age” has also attracted about 100 million views by Tuesday morning.

Persons: ” China’s, Ma Qiuhua, Tingshu Wang, ”, “, ’ Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Reuters, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Communist Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Weibo, Communist China, India

"The situation is already very bad for dollar-based funds to invest in China's tech sector. There isn't much room for things to get worse," said Beijing-based China Growth Capital partner Wayne Shiong. Biden's move will likely make China-focussed venture capital firms feel more urgency to raise yuan funds from Chinese investors, he said. In response to Biden's executive order, China's commerce ministry said it was "gravely concerned" and reserved the right to take countermeasures. But the executive order is barely going to do anything, and China escalating would risk turning a molehill into a mountain."

Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Weiheng Chen, Wilson Sonsini, Biden, Chen, Wayne Shiong, Biden's, Yuan, Pan, Trump, Derek Scissors, Kane Wu, Michael Martina, Roxanne Liu, Ziyi Tang, Yantoultra, Sumeet Chatterjee, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China Growth Capital, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, TECH, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Analysts, American Enterprise Institute, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, HONG KONG, WASHINGTON, Beijing, Washington, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Bengaluru

Most economists expect another modest 10 bps LPR cut in the second half - on top of a 25 bps cut in banks' requirement ratio (RRR). The PROC last cut the RRR - the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves -- in March, by 25 bps. Each 5 basis points LPR cut could reduce pre-tax profits of major banks by as much as 1.8%, China Merchants Securities said in a report. "A small rate cut is a useful painkiller for symptoms but cannot alleviate the real problem," said Gary Ng, Asia Pacific senior economist of Natixis. On Friday, China's cabinet discussed policy measures to support the economy.

Persons: COVID, NIM, Wang Yifeng, Wang, Gary Ng, China's, Zhang Ming, Zhang, Morgan Stanley, Kevin Yao, Ziyi Tang, Kripa Jayaram, Sumeet Chatterjee Organizations: People's Bank of China, Reuters, Everbright Securities, China Merchants Securities, Asia Pacific, stoke, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Thomson Locations: China, BEIJING, Beijing, Asia

☆ China may cut rates further in H2, government researcher says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING, June 6 (Reuters) - China will likely further cut banks' reserve ratio and interest rates in the second half of this year to support the economy, the China Securities Journal reported on Tuesday, citing policy advisors and economists. China's economy rebounded faster than expected in the first quarter but lost momentum at the beginning of the second. Zhang Ming, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank, told the state newspaper that low inflationary pressures in China will provide room for monetary easing. China can consider further rate cuts and target the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to lower lending costs, said Zhang. Li Chao, chief economist at Zheshang Securities, also expects potential rate cuts and RRR cuts in the second half of this year, the report said.

Persons: Zhang Ming, Zhang, Li Chao, Ziyi Tang, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: China Securities, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zheshang Securities, U.S . Federal Reserve, United, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, United States

☆ China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.

☆ Analysis: China's 'atypical' deflation cycle gives central bank a headache
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China GDP"China is entering an 'atypical' deflation cycle, which means deflation amid economic recovery," said Jinyue Dong, senior economist at BBVA research. China's new bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter. The central bank cut lenders' reserve requirements ratio (RRR) for the first time this year in March. But analysts say that is largely due to last year's low base caused by COVID-19 curbs that hit consumers the hardest, rather than underlying household demand. Reuters GraphicsNew household loans, mainly mortgages and consumer loans, accounted for 16% of total new loans in the first quarter, despite a jump in mortgages in March, while corporate loans made up for the rest.

☆ China keeps insisting its real-estate market is not in a crisis — even as just about every sign points to the opposite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF said in a report on China's economy that the country's property crisis remains "unresolved." But China's hit back at that, saying its property market "has been operating smoothly in general, and is not in a 'crisis' situation." China's real estate market has been mired in debt woes for the past few years. The IMF says China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022The IMF said in its Friday report China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022. The debt crisis also had a deep social impact.

The “three red lines” policy on debt ratios has begun aggravating market stress and impairing balance sheets. Those on the wrong side of those lines found themselves almost entirely locked out of credit markets. In short there are now more property firms on the wrong side of the red lines than when the policy was first rolled out, and even the most financially healthy are struggling. They are also mulling letting companies in good financial condition raise debt by more than the current 15% annual limit, per Bloomberg. However, the three red lines remain in place for now.

☆ China steps up support for private sector to boost Covid-hit economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —Beijing has vowed to go all out next year to save its Covid-hit economy by boosting consumption and loosening control over private industry, including the struggling tech and property sectors. Covid infections are surging in China after leaders unexpectedly eased its restrictive Covid policy earlier this month. Stabilizing economic growth is the top priority for 2023, according to an official readout following the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), a key annual meeting of top leaders, which ended Friday. “We need to encourage and support the private sector economy and private enterprise in terms of policy and public opinion,” the statement said. A shopping mall is decorated with rabbit stickers to welcome the Lunar New Year, the Year of the Rabbit, on December 10, 2022 in Beijing, China.

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