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Veteran investor Howard Marks said he was hopeful about China's economy, but cautioned that the country's growth target was a monumental challenge. China has set a growth target of "around 5%" for 2024, though Bank of America and Citigroup, among others, have projected the world's second-largest economy will grow at under 5%. The World Bank has pegged China growth in 2024 at 4.8%, and expects it to decline further to 4.3% next year, despite a recent slate measures to boost the economy. The World Bank cited headwinds such as sluggish Chinese consumer spending, a struggling property market and an ageing population as key concerns for the world's second-largest economy. "You can't produce economic growth through stimulus perpetually.
Persons: Howard Marks, Marks, CNBC's Emily Chan, it's, Donald Trump's, Xi Jinping Organizations: Oaktree Capital Management, Global Financial, Investment Summit, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank of America, Citigroup, Bank, People's Bank of China Locations: China
That's sure to result in increased volatility for the companies in our portfolio exposed to China, the world's second-largest economy. Consumer-dependent stocks Apple and Starbucks may be the most at risk given they are more discretionary versus the aforementioned names. At the Club, Jim has bestowed his "own it, don't trade it" designation on only those two stocks, Apple and Nvidia. AAPL YTD mountain Apple YTD Furthermore, while China growth may be tempered, Apple is aggressively looking to grow its presence in India — both on the consumer side and product manufacturing side of its business. Bottom line The risks for companies that do business in China have certainly increased following Trump's presidential election win.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jim Cramer, Joe Biden, Jensen Huang, Leonardo da Vinci, Lisa Su, Su, Tim Cook, Trump, Jim, China —, Brian Niccol, Niccol, we're, Jim Cramer's, Xi Jinping, Kevin Lemarque Organizations: Devices, Nvidia, GE Healthcare, Apple, AMD, Trump, Club, Bloomberg, U.S, Starbucks, Yum Brands, China, Taco Bell, Chipotle, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: we're, China, U.S, India, Vietnam, Osaka, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMore China stimulus expected, but growth will miss target this year: MorningstarLorraine Tan of Morningstar says China growth will come in between 4% to 5% this year, missing Beijing's target, although she expects more support measures being rolled out in the next few months.
Persons: Morningstar Lorraine Tan, Morningstar Locations: China
Haleon CEO Brian McNamara: We've seen double-digit growth in ChinaHaleon CEO Brian McNamara joins 'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer to talk quarterly results, China growth, consumer trends and more.
Persons: Brian McNamara, We've, Jim Cramer Locations: China
China growth could slow to 4.5% in 2025, says economist
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina growth could slow to 4.5% in 2025, says economistErica Tay of Maybank Investment Banking Group lays out the reasons why China's economic growth could slow to 4.5% next year, citing potential setbacks including trade restrictions and expectations for a deceleration in consumption.
Persons: Erica Tay Organizations: Maybank Investment Banking Group
Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their growth forecast for China from 4.7% to 4.9% for this year. AdvertisementChina may not fall too short of its growth targets this year after all, Goldman Sachs analysts said. The analysts also upgraded their growth forecast for next year, from 4.3% to 4.7%. Advertisement"The '3D' challenges - deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend, and the global supply chain de-risking push are unlikely to be reversed by the latest round of policy easing," they added. China's recent stimulus pushes have aimed to prop up its weak economy, which has been plagued by a struggling property sector and weak domestic demand.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman, China's Organizations: Service, Ministry of Finance, National Development, Reform Locations: China, Beijing
Major Chinese companies' latest quarterly reports reinforce how the local market is one for stock pickers. Another Chinese stock with growing exposure to overseas growth is Temu parent PDD Holdings , which is scheduled to report earnings before the U.S. market open on Monday. As of Friday, PDD held the second-largest weighting in CoreValues Alpha Greater China Growth ETF (CGRO). That gives the ETF managers timely information to move in and out of Chinese stocks. CGRO holds just over 30 Chinese companies that meet criteria such as "not compromising American tech, economic interests or values" or appearing on U.S. sanctions lists, according to the ETF's website.
Persons: Lorraine Tan, Morgan Stanley, Laura Wang, PDD, Tencent, Ben Harburg, CoreValues, Harburg, CGRO, We've, we've, you've, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Morningstar, CNBC, GDS Holdings, PDD Holdings, China Growth, CoreValues Alpha, U.S, KraneShares CSI China Internet Locations: Asia, Morgan Stanley China, U.S, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Alpha, Beijing, Japan, India
"We expect 30 retail store openings this year in China and China market sales to grow 21% YoY in 2024." Raised target Morgan Stanley raised its price target to HK$52, up from HK$45 previously, after Pop Mart's profit alert. "Strong pickup in online channels and Pop Land were the key drivers, while offline sales growth also accelerated (driven by teens% [same-store sales growth])." Pop Land is a theme park that Pop Mart opened near a major city park in Beijing in September 2023. "The company is well-prepared to sustain its high sales growth momentum into 2H24F, in our view (we estimate 2H24F total sales growth of 39% y-y)," the Nomura analysts said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Pop Mart, they've, Michael Bloom Organizations: Pop Mart, Pop, Mart, Disney, Hong, Apple, Starbucks, HK, China Renaissance, Nomura, U.S, Jefferies, Comcast, CNBC, NBCUniversal, NBC Sports, NBC Olympics, NBC, Games Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Pop, Thailand, NBCUniversal, U.S
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Wednesday's analyst calls and Wall Street chatter. "At this point, we believe EPS and investor sentiment have troughed and believe the risk-to-reward profile skews favorable," wrote analyst Nik Modi. "However, with minimal upside to our revised $47 price target and a relatively 'balanced' risk-reward between our $28 bear case …. –Samantha Subin 5:54 a.m.: Wall Street stands by Alphabet, AI potential post-earnings Wall Street analysts remain bullish on the outlook for Alphabet , even after the stock fell on the back of its second-quarter results. His price target of $425, up from $320, implies upside of more than 28% from Tuesday's close.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lauder, Estee Lauder, Nik Modi, Modi, Estee, – Samantha Subin, Morgan Stanley downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jonas, Jonas, Samantha Subin, Dan Levy, Tesla, Michaeli, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, Mark Delaney, GOOGL, Doug Anmuth, Justin Post, Eric Sheridan, Brent Thill, Sheridan, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Spotify, RBC, Markets, Motors, GM, General Motors, Tesla, Barclays, YouTube, Bank of America, Google, Jefferies Locations: China, 1H25, Tuesday's
"Flying Fairy," a 53% alcohol from Shanghai-listed Kweichow Moutai , saw wholesale prices drop by more than 5% in a week. He agreed the drop in wholesale prices won't have a big impact on Moutai's immediate earnings. What's also different about Moutai's stock decline is that investors aren't rushing in to bottom fish as they have in the past, Ye said. "The recent wholesale price drop we think is mostly triggered by the arbitragers in the market," Morningstar's Song said. She expects wholesale prices to increase in coming months given major Chinese holidays in the fall.
Persons: stoking, That's, Jennifer Song, Song, Kweichou Moutai, Ye Yuhua, What's, Ye, Moutai, Huatai, Moutai's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Nomura, Morningstar, Stock, Capital, Financial Holdings, JPMorgan, Macquarie Locations: Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hainan
Nike (NKE) is underperforming the market and its sector since mid 2021. With valuations near its historical lows and the potential for China growth to rebound, it is time for investors to start paying attention to Nike again. The trade Options on NKE are expensive now with implied volatility on the higher end of the range. DISCLOSURES: (Long Nike) THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: NKE, I'm Organizations: Nike Locations: China
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi flashes victory sign at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters to celebrate the party's win in country's general election, in New Delhi on June 4, 2024. Completed vote counts by the Election Commission of India showed that Modi's BJP won just 240 seats. India's Parliament has 543 seats, and the party or coalition that wins at least 272 forms the government. Modi's decade-long ruleUnder Modi, India, home to 1.4 billion people, has witnessed robust economic growth. While India has seen robust economic growth under Modi, observers and critics have warned about the country's "democratic decline."
Persons: Narendra Modi, Money Sharma, Modi, Aiyar, CNBC's, Shilan Shah, Shah, Kranthi, Sensex, Samir Kapadia, that's, Malcolm Dorson Organizations: India's, Bharatiya Janata Party, BJP, Afp, Getty, Indian, Modi's BJP, National Democratic Alliance, Developmental Inclusive Alliance, Indian National Congress, Policy Research, Centre, Monitoring, Capital Economics, BSE, WealthMills Securities, Adani, Adani Enterprises, State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, Monetary Fund, India Index, Vogel, Dem, Global, Vogel Group, IMF Locations: New Delhi, India, INDIA, China, Sweden
Nike has underperformed the market and its sector since mid-2021, but recently growth expectations from analysts have bottomed. With China's growth showing signs of a rebound and valuation near its historical low, it could be time for a comeback. We'll discuss how to set up an options trade to bet on a turnaround. Nike (NKE) has formed a triple bottom at the $90 support level over the past 3 years and recently it just bounced higher off this support. I'm going out to the June expiration to buy the $92.5/$100 call vertical at a $2.99 Debit.
Persons: We'll, I'm Organizations: Nike, Paris Olympics Locations: China
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese leaders have pledged to achieve an ambitious growth rate this year, while reshaping its economic model to focus on technology innovation. On Tuesday, Premier Li Qiang announced that economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, which he said “will not be easy” to hit, given that a Covid-battered 2022 had provided a lower base of growth for last year. “The level of support is likely too little to rocket the economy to its 5% growth target this year,” said Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s, referring to the measures announced by Li Tuesday. “China is walking a tightrope on the fiscal front between infrastructure stimulus and LGFV [local government financing vehicle] deleveraging,” said Goldman Sachs analysts on Wednesday. In order to achieve the ambitious 5% growth target, more specific stimulus is needed, such as increasing manufacturing investments, Liu said.
Persons: Li Qiang, , , Sarah Tan, Li Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Li, ” Nomura, Xi Jinping, Peiqian Liu, Liu, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, AFP, Getty, Goldman, Fidelity International, People’s Bank of China, Jefferies Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, , Asia,
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. services activity moderates
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Overnight, U.S. markets were dragged lower by sharp declines in major tech stocks. China growth pushChina may need to resort to an old tactic to hit its ambitious growth target this year. AI adoption rateA global survey found AI adoption rate for businesses is yet to match the hype around the technology.
Persons: Hong, Dow, Bitcoin, Wang Dan, Jeremy Hunt, Paul Meeks Organizations: CNBC, CSI, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Apple, Hang Seng Bank, Finance, Conservative Party, Nvidia, Veteran, CNBC Pro Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, China, Beijing
Oil fell slightly as China growth worries clash with output cuts
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday as concerns about demand growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer, clashed with signs of supply tightness amid output cuts by major producers. Oil prices fell slightly on Wednesday as concerns about demand growth in China, the world's biggest crude importer, clashed with signs of supply tightness amid output cuts by major producers. The 'risk off' nature of recent trading was underscored by the fall in Treasury yields, which also pressured oil prices. "Crude oil futures edged lower amid the risk-off tone across markets. If the EIA reports a crude storage build, it will be the sixth straight week of rising oil stocks in the country.
Persons: Daniel Hynes Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Treasury, of, Petroleum, ANZ, American Petroleum Institute, U.S . Energy, Administration Locations: China, OPEC, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Asia
CNBC Daily Open: U.S. services pace slows slightly
  + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dow's steep declineWall Street ended lower Tuesday as the broader market was dragged by sharp declines in major tech stocks. China growth pushChina may need to resort to an old tactic to hit its ambitious growth target this year. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump hold commanding leads in the polls of their respective parties.
Persons: Dow, Bitcoin, Wang Dan, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Powell, Paul Meeks Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Apple, Hang Seng Bank, Capitol, Nvidia, Veteran, CNBC Pro Locations: China, Beijing
An oil and gas industry worker walks during operations of a drilling rig at Zhetybay field in the Mangystau region, Kazakhstan, November 13, 2023. Crude oil futures fell for a second consecutive day Tuesday as China's pledge to boost economic growth and OPEC+ production cuts failed to lift prices. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April dropped 72 cents, or 0.91%, to $78.02 a barrel. May Brent futures shed 57 cents, or 0.69%, to $82.83 a barrel. The Beijing government on Tuesday set an economic growth target of about 5% for 2024 and announced the issuance of $138.9 billion in "ultra-long" special Treasury bonds to fund major projects.
Persons: Brent Organizations: West Texas Intermediate Locations: Mangystau, Kazakhstan, Beijing
That's far less than in the previous years — the share of U.S. dollars in total VC funds raised was around 15% for the years 2018 to 2021, the data showed. China investments, China exitsWashington and Beijing in 2022 resolved a long-standing audit dispute that reduced the risk of Chinese companies having to delist from U.S. stock exchanges. "With U.S. IPOs no longer being a viable exit strategy for China assets, investors should target local exits in their respective capital markets—in other words, China exits for China assets, and U.S. exits for overseas assets," Liao said. The 20 largest VC deals for China-headquartered companies in 2013 were predominantly in e-commerce and software services, according to PitchBook data. ... the venture capital scene has become even more state-concentrated and focused on government priorities.
Persons: China’s renminbi, Athit Perawongmetha, Kyle Stanford, China —, Liao Ming, Stocks, Liao, Didi, Beijing's, Camille Boullenois Organizations: Reuters, Reuters BEIJING — Venture, Liao Ming, U.S, Sequoia, Prospect, Capital, New York Stock Exchange Locations: U.S, Bangkok, Thailand, Reuters BEIJING, China, Sequoia, Washington, India, Japan, Greater China, Beijing, New York, Hong Kong, U.S . Washington
But Jason Hsu, chairman and chief investment officer of Rayliant Global Advisors, believes that one stock will come out ahead. Hsu believes that as the EV market consolidates, BYD is "for sure going to emerge a winner." One potential curveball for the Chinese EV market is a U.S. decision to raise tariffs, which is reportedly under discussion . But Hsu believes that the markets have already priced in the possibility that those tariff hikes will be imposed. For global investors who want to buy BYD, its shares are listed on the Hong Kong exchange.
Persons: Tesla, Jason Hsu, CNBC's, Hsu, BYD, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Rayliant Global Advisors, Toyota, Hong, BYD, China Clean Technology, China Growth Locations: That's Hong Kong, BYD, China, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong
As China's electric vehicle market goes from strength to strength, investors worldwide are showing a growing interest in getting involved. The chief investment officer singled out BYD , which recently beat Tesla to become the top global EV maker, as a "favorite" car maker, and battery-making giant Contemporary Amperex Technology ( CATL ). But significant hurdles remain for retail investors before they can be part of China's EV growth story. However, the veteran investor pointed out that ETFs with concentrated positions remain viable options for those seeking exposure to the Chinese EV growth potential. The fund also has a 5% position in Chinese EV maker BYD, according to FactSet data.
Persons: Kingsley Jones, Jevons, CNBC's, BYD, Tesla, Kingsley, Li Auto, BATT, Jones, BATT CGRO Organizations: Jevons Global, Technology, BMW, Hyundai, Honda, China EV, Battery Technology, China Growth, BATT, BYD, CNBC, Alpha, CGRO Locations: Hong Kong, China, U.S, Europe, BYD, Australia, Canberra, Xiaomi
Moody's Investors Service has a negative outlook for sovereign creditworthiness in Asia-Pacific this year, due to China's slower economic growth as well as tight funding and geopolitical risks. China's rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic wasn't as fast as several economists had expected at the start of 2023. In a Jan. 15 report, Moody's predicted China's real GDP growth would slow to 4% this year and next, from an average of 6% between 2014 and 2023. The credit rating agency said the slowdown in China's growth "significantly influences" APAC economies because of its strong integration in global supply chains. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, among other major international investment banks, predict China's economy to grow at a slower pace of 4.6% in 2024, down from 5.2% expected for 2023.
Persons: Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Moody's, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Asia, Pacific
An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.
Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco
CNBC Daily Open: The heat is truly on COP28
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 0.5% higher, clocking monthly gains of more than 8%, while South Korea's KOSPI finished the day up 0.6%, advancing more than 11% this month. [PRO] Golden crossesThree stocks are on the verge of taking off, according to a chart pattern closely watched by technical analysts. The phenomenon, known as a "golden cross," occurs when a stock's 50-day moving average share price rises above the longer-term 200-day moving average.
Persons: KOSPI, China's, Rebooting, Sam Altman, Altman Organizations: Expo, CNBC, Nikkei, Dow Jones, National Bureau of Statistics, Microsoft, Auto, United Auto Workers, Volvo, BMW, Mercedes, Benz, Hyundai, Honda, Toyota, Detroit, General Motors Locations: Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Asia, Pacific, South, Hong Kong, China, OpenAI, U.S
The deal to acquire investment firm Carlyle's (CG.O) 28% holding in the burger chain's China business, which also includes its stores in Hong Kong and Macau, will see McDonald's stake rise to 48%. Since 2017, the number of McDonald's stores in China has doubled to 5,500 and the country has become its second-largest market. McDonald's made an unsolicited offer for Carlyle's stake in the China operations in recent weeks and the deal was struck quickly, said the sources. Reuters reported in August that Trustar Capital was planning to raise a continuation fund that would allow the Chinese private equity firm to sell down its stake in McDonald's China. In contrast to McDonald's, U.S. meat and processed food maker Tyson Foods (TSN.N) plans to sell its China poultry business, sources have said.
Persons: Benoit Tessier, Chris Kempczinski, McDonald's, Carlyle, Trustar, Jim Sanderson, Reckitt, Kane Wu, Granth, Deborah Sophia, Roxanne Liu, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: REUTERS, HK, CITIC, Trustar, Northcoast Research, Reuters, Tyson Foods, Primavera Capital, Thomson Locations: Bretigny, Paris, France, China, Hong Kong, Macau, CITIC, U.S, McDonald's China, British, Bengaluru, Beijing
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