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AdvertisementA bipartisan US congressional commission urges a "Manhattan Project" for AI to outpace China. Trump has previously called China the "primary threat" in the AI race. AdvertisementThe Manhattan Project was a secret program led by the US government during World War II to develop the world's first atomic bombs. Advertisement"We have to take the lead over China, China is the primary threat," he added. OpenAI also cited the Manhattan Project in its blueprint as one of the US's "iconic infrastructure projects that moved the country forward."
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Logan, Joe Biden's, OpenAI, Yoshua, Max Tegmark Organizations: China, China Economic, Security, Commission, General Intelligence, US Treasury Department, Business, Manhattan Project, Life Institute, MIT, Guardian, Elon Locations: China, US, Washington
Tech: We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers are shouldering much of it . We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers . AdvertisementElon Musk's government efficiency commission has been tasked with cutting government spending, raising questions about the future of millions of jobs. Tech jobs are mired in a recession. White collar hiring is in a huge slump, and tech workers are some of the hardest hit .
Persons: Trump hasn't, Tesla, Chelsea Jia Feng, Madison Hoff, Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk, Alice Tecotzky, John L, Dorman, Allison Robbert, Scott Bessent, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Natalie Ammari, Uber, Verily, , Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk, Bluesky —, Jake Paul's, Netflix's Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, wasn't, Donald Trump's, Satya Nadella, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Google, Trump, Tech, Getty, Elon, Department of Education, Veterans Affairs, Department of Government, Social Security, Medicare, Twitter, Getty Government, Allison, Treasury, BCA Research, Goldman, BI, LinkedIn, Microsoft, China Economic, Security, Walmart Locations: Washington , DC, China, Brazilian, New York, Chicago, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina economic data: Early signs of policy support, says economistQian Wang, principal and chief Asia-Pacific economist of Vanguard, discusses China's economic data for October and what needs to be done for the "growth rebound" to be sustained.
Persons: Qian Wang Organizations: China, Vanguard Locations: Asia, Pacific
Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to increased global manufacturing activity temporarily. Related Video China, Russia boast that trade is at an "all-time high" despite Western sanctions"Just as businesses try to get ahead of that, you could actually see a little bit of pop in global manufacturing, China manufacturing, as we head into the first quarter," he added. Exports could dip with focus on trade deficitsAny a temporary boost in trade would just be that: temporary. Advertisement"Higher US tariffs on Chinese exports could re-direct those exports into Asia, hurting local production," wrote the Nomura economists. "More tit-for-tat trade retaliation, trade policy uncertainty and delayed policy easing in some Asian economies will also likely spill into domestic demand," they added.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Lupton, Zichun Huang Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Capital Economics, Exports, Nomura Locations: China, Russia, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India, Asia
Lan revealed that, as of the end of 2023, China had an enormous hidden debt balance of 14.3 trillion yuan ($1.99 trillion). Officials aim to trim that amount to 2.3 trillion yuan ($320 billion) by 2028. Hitting a growth targetThe scale of the debt swap, seen as underwhelming by some investors, was largely in line with the expectations of economists. Still, at this pace of growth, there’s a risk Beijing may miss its growth target rate of around 5%. Since then, economists have been expecting additional stimulus measures worth up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to restore bullishness in the world’s second-largest economy.
Persons: Donald Trump, Lan Fo’an, ” Lan, Lan, Larry Hu, Xi Jinping Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, House, Finance, National People’s Congress, , Macquarie Bank, Reuters Locations: China, Hong Kong, Lan, Beijing
“Trump’s return to power will certainly bring greater opportunities and greater risks for China,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai. AFP/Getty ImagesChallenges and opportunitiesBut Trump’s “America First” agenda and transactional worldview may also play in Beijing’s favor, experts say. “Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “If the US and Russia ease relations, it could create greater daylight between Russia and China, effectively driving a wedge between them.” Liu said. “From everything he has said, it’s clear that Trump considers China, not Russia, as the main adversary.”
Persons: Donald Trump, , , Shen Dingli, Xi Jinping, Trump, Xi, “ Trump, Liu Dongshu, Jim Watson, Larry Hu, Kamala Harris, Daniel Russel, Russel, Barack Obama, Tong Zhao, Joe Biden, Arleigh Burke, Halsey, Ismael Martinez, China’s, he’s, ” Zhao, Vladimir Putin, Liu, ” Liu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Foreign, Chinese Foreign Ministry, City University of Hong, Getty, Huawei, Investment, Macquarie, Republican, Asia Society Policy Institute, Shipping, Carnegie Endowment, International, NATO, Asian Nato, Trump, US Navy, U.S . Navy, AP, Russia Beijing, Communist Party, Industry, Wall Street Locations: Hong Kong, China, United States, Beijing, Shanghai, America, City University of Hong Kong, Lago, Florida, AFP, Asia, Lianyungang, China's Jiangsu, Europe, Western, Russia, Asian, Taiwan Strait, AP Taiwan, Taiwan, Washington, Ukraine
China reviews plan to increase local government debt
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
BEIJING — A closely watched meeting of China's parliament standing committee on Monday reviewed a proposal to raise the local government debt limit, according to state media. New debt would go toward replacing hidden debt, the report said, noting that Finance Minister Lan Fo'an spoke at the meeting on the plan. Lan indicated at a press conference last month that an increase in the local debt limit was in the works. Local authorities in China have historically been responsible for much of public services spending, but have struggled financially as revenue from land sales to developers has dropped. China has about 50 trillion yuan to 60 trillion yuan (about $7 trillion to $8.45 trillion) in outstanding hidden debt, according to Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.
Persons: Lan Fo'an, Lan, Ting Lu Organizations: of, Initiative, Local, Nomura Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
CNBC Daily Open: Eve of Election Day
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Voters cast their votes during early voting in the U.S. presidential election at a polling station in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. November 3, 2024. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Asia markets climb ahead of China's parliament meetingU.S. stocks rallied Friday to kick off November, as traders shrugged off a disappointing jobs report. Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday as investors watch the U.S. election, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and China's monetary policy meeting starting Monday.
Persons: Dow Jones, shrugged, Harris, Ting Lu, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: U.S, CNBC, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Democratic, Des Moines Register, Iowa Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, Beijing, Iowa Iowa, Iowa
Investors expect Beijing to announce details on fiscal support Friday. He expects Trump has a greater chance of winning, which he said would increase downward pressure on the Chinese yuan versus the U.S. dollar. While the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates, the Ministry of Finance has yet to release details on widely anticipated fiscal stimulus. China is considering more than 10 trillion yuan in debt issuance over a few years, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing sources. Whether it is 10 trillion yuan over three to five years, or 2 trillion yuan in one year, the average is about 2 trillion yuan in support a year, she pointed out.
Persons: Aly Song, That's, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Ting Lu, Biden, Zhu Bin, Zhu, Trump, Liqian Ren, Ren, Xi Jinping, Lan Fo'an, Zong Liang, WisdomTree's Ren Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Investors, National People's, Trump, Nomura, Nanhua, CNBC, U.S ., WisdomTree, People's Bank of, Ministry of Finance, Finance, Bank of China Locations: Yiwu, Zhejiang province, China, Reuters BEIJING, Beijing, U.S, United, People's Bank of China
China's industrial profits in September dropped at its fastest pace since the pandemic, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, as the country tussles with an economy plagued by slow growth, lack of demand and a property crisis. After a 17.8% fall in August, industrial profits declined 27.1% in September from a year ago, marking the steepest plunge since March 2020, when it dropped by 34.9%, according to data kept by Wind Information. In the first nine months, industrial profits fell by 3.5% from a year ago. NBS statistician Yu Weining said "insufficient demand and a sharp decline in producer prices" weighed down the profitability of industrial firms. Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, said in an email to CNBC that "the weakness of industrial profits indicates China's greater need for demand-side policies."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Yu Weining, Gary Ng Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Information, People's, CNBC, Reuters, PMI Locations: Jiangxi Province, Shanghai, China, Beijing
Earnings drove the stock market higher — can they do it again in the week ahead? But he acknowledged that timing is key because our portfolio discipline mandates that we consider lightening up our stock exposure in an overbought market. In fact, AMD was our worst-performing stock for the entire week, losing more than 7% following the prior week's 1.8% slide. Energy was the worst sector of the week for the market as oil prices sank. In the week ahead, housing numbers are the main draw on the economic front.
Persons: Jim Cramer, ASML, Morgan Stanley, WTI, industrials, We're, Sartorius, Danaher, we're, Stanley Black, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, Clark, Baker Hughes, Lam, DOV, CARR, Davidson, Northrop, Edwards Lifesciences, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Stocks, Tuesday's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Netflix, Modelo, Corona, Constellation Brands, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Energy, Texas, Honeywell, Danaher, Federal Reserve, Treasury, SAP, Logitech, Verizon, General Motors, GE Aerospace, GE, Lockheed, Quest Diagnostics, Norfolk Southern, Polaris, Seagate Technology, Texas Instruments, Canadian National Railway Company, Boeing, GE Vernova, Fisher, Boston, General Dynamics, Hilton, Lam Research, Business Machines, IBM, Newmont, Viking Therapeutics, Vista Energy, Mattel, O'Reilly Automotive, Whirlpool, American Airlines, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Tractor Supply Company, Carrier Global, Dow Chemical, DOW, Harley, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Hasbro, Northrop Grumman, Ryder, Boyd Gaming, Western, Boston Beer Company, York Community Bancorp, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, NEW, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: BlackRock, CrowdStrike, U.S, Dover, Freeport, McMoRan, Kimberly, Norfolk, Las, ORLY, VALE, New York City
On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its struggling property market. AdvertisementChina officials have directed a wave of stimulus measures at the country's beleaguered property market, but the effort hasn't done much to impress Wall Street experts. On Thursday, China unveiled new measures to prop up its flailing housing market, including quicker access to credit for developers and renovations in run-down urban areas. "While a step in the right direction, these stimulus measures are so far falling short of the scope and scale needed to reflate the Chinese economy. But Yingrui Wang, China economist at AXA Investment Managers, says that optimism could be short-lived as the housing stimulus lacks detail.
Persons: , Wall, Goldman Sachs, haven't, Yingrui Wang, Wang Organizations: Service, Ministry of Housing, Ministry, BCA Research, AXA Investment, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, China's
The skyline of the central business district in Beijing on August 13, 2019. (Photo by WANG Zhao / AFP)Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Friday, as investors awaited key economic data from China and assessed Japan's inflation numbers. China's third-quarter GDP is expected to come in at 4.5%, as estimated by economists in a Reuters poll, compared with 4.7% growth in the prior quarter. China is set to release its house prices index for September at 9:30 a.m. local time. Japan's headline inflation for September came in at 2.5%, while core CPI — which excludes fresh food prices — rose 2.4% year on year compared with Reuters estimates of 2.3%.
Persons: WANG Zhao Locations: Beijing, AFP, Asia, Pacific, China
The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data. China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's statistics bureau announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." "The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive." China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing.
Persons: , Sheng Laiyun, China's, Lynn Song, Betty Wang, Larry Hu, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Wang Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, Reuters, Greater China, ING, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Macquarie Group Locations: China, Greater, People's Bank of China, Beijing
Since then, economists have been expecting an additional stimulus package worth up to 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) to restore bullishness in the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese Housing Minister Ni Hong attends a press conference on the property sector in Beijing, China, on October 17, 2024. Widespread concernThe ailing property sector is widely believed to lie at the root of China’s numerous economic woes. It also cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by half a percentage point, which would free up about 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) for new lending. The resulting crisis has resulted in a precipitous fall in real estate prices and loss of confidence among consumers.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Housing Ministry didn’t, Larry Hu, , , Ni, Minister Ni Hong, Florence Lo, Xiao Yuanqi, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Housing Ministry, Macquarie, CNN, ” Investors, Ministry of Housing, Ni Hong, Minister, Administration Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing
Beijing's lack of concrete economic stimulus actions poured cold water on U.S. investors who went big on the China trade, and strategists on Wall Street are warning of disappointment ahead. The professional cohort had piled into beaten-down stocks last month, stirred by hopes of more government assistance for the troubled China economy. "Indeed, the only part of the Chinese economy that appeared to be holding was its export sector. Investor sentiment toward Chinese stocks was partly aided by high-profile hedge fund manager David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, who turned extremely bullish. Stanley Druckenmiller reportedly said he's not interested in Chinese stocks under the current political leadership, regardless of the new policies.
Persons: Stefano Pascale, Sameer Samana, Donald Trump, Barclays Pascale, David Tepper, Tepper, Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller, he's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Trump, CSI, Appaloosa Management, CNBC Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Beijing
China's export growth slowed in September, raising concerns about future economic stability. China may delay further economic stimulus ahead of the US election, anticipating potential tariffs. The market had expected China's exports to grow 6% on-year in September, according to a Reuters' poll of economists. AdvertisementThe timing of the decline in China's exports also came at an untimely moment — weeks before the US presidential election. Beijing has rejected this view, saying the West's accusations are protectionist and aimed at containing China's economic growth.
Persons: , hasn't, Lu Daliang, Donald Trump, Rory Green, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Green Organizations: Service, Reuters, EU, Administration of Customs, Nomura, BofA Securities, Republican, Authorities, Trump, US Locations: China, Japan, South Korea, Beijing
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for. In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. China's real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. He added that a large plan to address local governments' hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.
Persons: Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Goldin Finance, Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, China's Ministry, Finance, Ministry of Finance, International Monetary Fund Locations: Tianjin, China, Covid
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina needs at least 2.5 trillion yuan in additional borrowing to meet 5% growth target: EconomistJulian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, discusses the outlook for China's economy.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard Organizations: China, Capital Economics Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCredit Agricole: Still need more fiscal subsidies to boost Chinese consumptionXiaojia Zhi, Chief China Economist at Credit Agricole, says the government still needs to introduce more fiscal stimulus to shore up consumer sentiment despite signs of stabilization in China's consumer spending.
Persons: Zhi Organizations: Credit, Chief China, Credit Agricole
BEIJING — China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an told reporters Saturday during a press briefing that the central government has room to increase debt and the deficit. Economists have said China needs additional fiscal support, but Beijing has yet to announce any. He did not name specific figures and noted supporting real estate required multiple policies. In a meeting in late September, led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, authorities had called for strengthening monetary and fiscal policy support. China's retail sales grew only modestly over the last few months, and the country's real estate slump has shown few signs of turning around.
Persons: Lan Fo'an, Zheng Shanjie, Pan Gongsheng, Finance Lan Fo'an, Lan, Finance Liao Min, Xi Jinping, Ting Lu Organizations: National Development, Reform Commission, People's Bank of China, National People's Congress, BEIJING —, Finance, Nomura, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
Beijing Reuters —China will “significantly increase” government debt issuance to offer subsidies to people with low incomes, support the property market and replenish state banks’ capital as it pushes to revive sputtering economic growth. “There is still relatively big room for China to issue debt,” he said. Reuters reported last month that China plans to issue special sovereign bonds worth about 2 trillion yuan ($284.43 billion) this year as part of fresh fiscal stimulus. Separately, Bloomberg News reported that China is also considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the economy, primarily by issuing new sovereign bonds. Swedish furniture retailer Ikea, whose 39 stores in China have felt the spillovers from the property crisis, urged Beijing on Thursday to deploy further stimulus.
Persons: Lan Foan, , Zheng Shanjie, , Lan Organizations: Beijing Reuters, Finance, National Development, Reform Commission, Communist Party’s, Reuters, Bloomberg News, Local, Investment, Ikea Locations: Beijing, China, China’s, Swedish
Hong Kong CNN —Global investors went wild during China’s just-concluded Golden Week holiday by snapping up “everything” related to the country. But that optimism didn’t extend to shoppers and travelers in the world’s second-largest economy itself. “Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlighted still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading,” they said. Goldman Sachs added that anecdotal evidence indicates hotel prices and airfares during the holiday were lower than year-ago levels. According to official data, cross-border travel rose by about 26% to 13 million trips, compared with last year’s holiday period.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Xi Jinping, David Tepper Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Global, Citi, Management, CNBC, Hong, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Hong Kong CNN —China has set aside 200 billion yuan ($28 billion) for investment projects by local governments this year, as it promised to meet its own ambitious economic growth targets. China announced a 5% target growth rate in March, but a series of economic data over the summer has been so weak that economists were worried the goal might be missed. To help local governments struggling with mountains of debt, Beijing will provide 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) from the central government’s budget and an extra 100 billion yuan for investment projects, Zheng said. Nevertheless, investors were disappointed at the lack of details on new fiscal measures,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist for HSBC, told CNN. Fiscal measures, on the other hand, can include the use of taxation or other measures to impact public spending more directly.
Persons: ” Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Xi Jinping, Fred Neumann, What’s, Jia Kang, , … Jia Kang, , Xi, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Development, Reform Commission, HSBC, CNN, , Ministry of Finance, Citi, People’s Bank of China Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen
However, despite the measures, which have mainly focused on monetary policy, the World Bank's 2025 growth projection was unchanged from earlier projections. The international lender estimated that China's growth rate would drop to 4.3% next year, down from a projected 4.8% in 2024, in an economic update on Tuesday. China's economic growth rate is expected to decline further in 2025 despite a temporary boost from recent stimulus measures, according to the World Bank. The World Bank has long advocated for China to boost its growth through bold policy actions such as unleashing competition, upgrading infrastructure, and reforming education. "For three decades, China's growth has spilled over beneficially to its neighbors, but the size of that impetus is now diminishing," the World Bank said in its Tuesday report.
Persons: Aaditya, Mattoo, James Sullivan, Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, CNBC's, Goldman Organizations: World Bank, Bank, JPMorgan, National, Reform, East Locations: Aaditya Mattoo, East Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Asia, China, beneficially
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