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He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.
Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, , Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance
Representatives for Trump’s transition team and the FTC didn’t respond to requests for comment. Wall Street, which has been on a tear since Trump’s decisive victory last week, appears to be ready to turn the page on the Khan era. Similarly, the FTC has gone after Big Tech, Big Pharma and even Big Mattress in the name of keeping competition robust. To them, Khan and her DOJ partner in trustbusting, Jonathan Kanter, represent a threat to the bottom line. Since last week’s election, both Kroger and Albertsons shares have risen sharply as investors anticipate the deal would face little resistance under Trump’s FTC.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN — Lina Khan’s, Donald Trump, Khan, she’s, Lina Khan, Jennifer Rie, kowtow, Jonathan Kanter, Elon Musk, Trump, ” Barry Diller, , , Republican “ Khanservative, JD Vance, Gail Slater, Vance, , David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Donald Trump’s, Brian Gardner, ” Gardner, Susie Wiles Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Federal Trade Commission, FTC, Republican, Bloomberg Intelligence, CNN, Justice, Albertsons, Big Tech, Big Pharma, IAC, Democratic, Bloomberg, Kroger, Trump’s FTC, Goldman Sachs ’, White, Trump, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, it’s, trustbusting, Washington
New York CNN —Donald Trump rode a powerful wave of discontent over the cost of living back to the White House. Trump reminded voters often that inflation wasn’t a problem when he was calling the shots. But if he’s not careful, Trump could have an inflation problem of his own. They point to study after study that shows Americans bore almost the entire cost of Trump’s tariffs on China. “When Trump uses tariffs as a negotiating tool, I’m fine with that,” Moore said during a phone interview in late October.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, he’s, ” Ryan Sweet, won’t, ” Sweet, , Joe Biden, CNN’s Phil Mattingly, ” He’s, Trump’s, “ We’re, ” Daniel Alpert, CNN’s Allison Morrow, Stephen Moore, CNN he’s “, ” Moore Organizations: New, New York CNN, Voters, Oxford Economics, CNN, Trump, Federal, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, National Retail Federation, Westwood Capital Locations: New York, Washington, Pennsylvania, China
Credit markets face challenges, but opportunities exist in corporate bonds and cheap optionality. But when times are tight, companies deleverage until their debt is less than their cash flow. The yields in corporate bonds aren't much higher than in government bonds, meaning less compensation for more risk. Advertisement"This trade works if natural gas prices remain stable or rise, leading the energy bond to outperform the overall corporate bond market," Rieder said. "It's an excellent opportunity to capitalize on the current tight credit spread conditions and complacency in the overall credit market."
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Mark Rieder, Rieder, I've Organizations: Service, Fed, Treasury, Bloomberg, Business
Kostin expects the S&P 500 equal-weighted index and mid-cap stocks to gain from a broadening market. Today, the 10 largest stocks in the S&P 500 make up 36% of the entire index by market capitalization. Related storiesThis gap between the top S&P 500 performers and the rest of the index hasn't occurred since the dot-com bubble. "The evidence is strongly in support of the fact that growth rates for high revenue growth companies tend to fade," he added. For that reason, Kostin is expecting the S&P 500 equal-weight SPW index to outperform the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
Persons: David Kostin, Kostin, , Goldman Sachs, Kostin isn't, that's, he's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Intel, Microsoft, Cisco
Here are 39 quality economically sensitive stocks to buy, according to Morgan Stanley. Economically sensitive stocks, including financials and industrials, took off in anticipation of that result and caught fire after it became official. Several parts of the stock market seem to be preparing for another Trump presidency, according to Morgan Stanley. "Markets generally welcomed a reflationary playbook in 2016," Wilson wrote. AdvertisementRegardless of who's in office, Morgan Stanley outlined a list of 39 economically sensitive stocks that should do well.
Persons: Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, , Trump, Kamala Harris, It's, Harris, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, it's Organizations: Service, Trump, Consumer, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Locations: Financials
CNN —Private sector hiring blew past expectations in October, another sign that the US labor market remains on solid footing, payroll processor ADP reported Wednesday. Non-governmental employers added 233,000 jobs in October, a sharp acceleration from the 159,000 net increase reported for September, according to ADP’s latest National Employment Report. Wednesday’s gains throttled economists’ expectations for job growth to slow to a mere 108,000 jobs from the initial estimate of 143,000, FactSet estimates show. Pantheon Macroeconomics is sticking with its forecast of 100,000 payroll gains, according to an investors note sent Wednesday. And while a resurgence in the labor market could raise concerns about a reacceleration in inflation, October’s ADP data showed otherwise, Richardson said.
Persons: Nela Richardson, Hurricane Helene, ADP’s tabulations, ” Richardson, Richardson, , Irma, ” Samuel Tombs, Milton …, Wednesday’s, Organizations: CNN, ADP, Boeing, Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, Pantheon, Companies, Federal Reserve Locations: Hurricane Milton, Carolina, Florida, Milton, South Atlantic
Until this week’s pullback, the market’s recent performance told a remarkable story. The S&P 500 rose for 37 of the last 51 weeks, matching a record reached in both 1989 and 2004. Political uncertaintyWith polls showing a tight race for the White House, investors have been increasingly on edge about the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning the election. While polls remain effectively dead even, political betting markets have swung in Trump’s favor since the start of this month. Deutsche Bank analysts warn that the recent rally may be difficult to sustain given these historically high valuations.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, ” Steven Ricchiuto, Henry Allen, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, White House, Mizuho Securities, , Deutsche Bank, Apple, Microsoft, Presidential, Federal Locations: New York, Israel
Investors have been increasingly on edge about the prospect of former President Donald Trump winning the election, a possibility for which Wall Street has been preparing to a greater extent. While polls remain effectively dead-even, Trump’s prospects have grown since the start of this month in political betting markets. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, ending the day down by 1.6%; while the S&P 500 and Dow both fell about 1%. Recent strong economic data has led traders to question whether the central bank might maintain higher rates for longer than anticipated. The current market environment suggests continued volatility ahead, said Torres, warning of the potential for further yield curve steepening and increased market turbulence ahead.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, ” Steven Ricchiuto, Kamala Harris, Dow, , José Torres, McDonald’s, Kelly Ortberg, Torres Organizations: New, New York CNN, Mizuho Securities, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow, Interactive Brokers, Nvidia, Apple, Boeing, Federal Locations: New York, United States
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's bull run could slow if the dollar strengthens again. AdvertisementMorgan Stanley's top stock strategist is eyeing one risk in particular that could threaten the stock market's big rally: a stronger US dollar. According to the firm's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, a dollar re-strengthening could hinder stock gains. The greenback weakened as markets prepared for steep rate cuts, but that move has reversed in recent weeks as strong economic data makes more aggressive policy easing less likely. Wilson's call comes two years into the market's bull rally, with major indexes continuing to hit fresh all-time highs.
Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, , that's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Radio, Federal Locations: China, Japan
Positioning in financial stocks is light relative to other sectors, Morgan Stanley says. AdvertisementInvestors are lingering in defensive trades that don't take advantage of the economy's strength, Morgan Stanley said, highlighting opportunities in underinvested sectors. The firm — which just last week upgraded cyclical stocks to "overweight" relative to defensives — described the financials group as particularly attractive. Morgan Stanley said net exposure to financials was in the bottom 15th percentile of a historical data series that goes back to 2010. Morgan Stanley noted that this weakness lowered earnings-season expectations for investors, making it easier for major lenders to outperform forecasts.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , financials, Mike Wilson, Wells Fargo, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bank, JPMorgan, Utilities, defensives, ISM Locations: Basel
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.
Persons: , bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board
Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states. The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and economic growth, at least in the short term. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. "Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note.
Persons: Milton, Hurricane Helene, Helene, They're, Adam Smith, Jefferies, Harvey, Ian, Smith, Michael Mann, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Mann, Implan Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of Pennsylvania, Oxford Economics, Boeing, Milton, Potsdam Institute, Climate Impact Research Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Milton
New York CNN —Hopes for avoiding a recession are growing on Wall Street. Now, investors are looking to the upcoming earnings season for clues about the US economy’s health. The earnings season begins in earnest Friday with quarterly updates from big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and BlackRock. Wall Street will also parse the September Consumer Price Index report and wholesale inflation figures due later this week. Wall Street will also eye developments from the tech companies whose mammoth stock returns have helped power this year’s bull market.
Persons: Motors, , , Sarah Henry, Wells, Mark Malek, Siebert, Dave Sekera Organizations: New, New York CNN, Economic, PepsiCo, Conagra Brands, Logan Capital, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, Tech, , FactSet, Apple, Nvidia, Communication, Morningstar Locations: New York, Wells Fargo, BlackRock
However, the economy and the job market may be too strong to warrant steep rate cuts in the near term. "September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a note to clients this week. The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month. Advertisement"With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.
Persons: , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Megan Horneman, Steven Blitz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Yardeni, Fed, Verdence Capital Advisors, TS Lombard, Philadelphia Fed
US stocks are clicking on all cylinders, which led Goldman Sachs to lift its S&P 500 target again. Here are 25 companies set for outstanding earnings growth in 2025. The financial titan originally set its 2024 S&P 500 target at 4,700, then lifted it a month later to 5,100. That would translate to $241 worth of S&P 500 earnings, before an 11% jump in 2025 to $268 and an additional 7% leap in 2026 to $288. This month, the firm shared a coveted list of companies with the strongest expected earnings growth in 2025.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Service, Wall, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Communication
Here are 33 of the firm's favorite stocks heading into a pivotal fourth quarter. Therefore, it's no shock that those growth stocks are responsible for the market's lofty valuation. AdvertisementMorningstar33 top stocks to ownIn Morningstar's fourth-quarter note, the firm designated 33 stocks as its top picks across sectors and groups like cyclicals, defensives, and economically sensitive companies. "To outperform, we think investors will need to look for contrarian investments and story stocks," Sekera wrote. Along with each company is its ticker, market capitalization, group, sector, rating, price target, upside to that target, and selected commentary from Morningstar.
Persons: , Dave Sekera, Morningstar, Sekera Organizations: Morningstar, Service, Stocks
CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.
Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, , Erica Groshen, They’ve, , Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, , American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio
There's an unusually wide gap between highly efficient companies and everyone else. Here are 25 standout stocks to consider ahead of the Q3 earnings season. AdvertisementThe market's most efficient companies are separating from the pack at a crucial time in the year. AdvertisementThe gap between highly efficient companies — as measured by returns on equity — and other stocks in the S&P 500 has widened, Goldman Sachs found. 25 increasingly efficient stocks to targetIn his weekly note, Kostin shared an updated list of 50 stocks set to enjoy the largest growth in returns on equity.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Kostin, That's Organizations: Service
A strong jobs report would boost low-quality stocks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts say. AdvertisementInvestor eyes are locked on the upcoming jobs report, due Friday. If it comes in strong, that will be great news for less-loved, lower-quality stocks, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say. Morgan Stanley's equity-strategy team is also keyed in on the jobs report. Wilson also highlighted the jobs report as a possible catalyst for rotation towards low quality in the stock market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, , David Kostin, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm payrolls Organizations: Service, firm's
In today's big story, the economy is heading in the right direction, but consumers aren't buying it . Things seem to be going really well for the economy, right? Consumers aren't feeling bullish about the economy these days. Last time around, pesky inflation was keeping things like groceries and housing costs high, even as the rest of the economy showed improvement. China's stimulus plan to boost its ailing economy sent emerging markets indexes to their highest level since April 2022 .
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, We've, Insider's Juliana Kaplan, Spencer Platt, Getty, Tyler Le, We'll, Morgan, Mike Wilson, Steven Blitz, China's, aren't, Chelsea Jia Feng, weren't, Natalie Ammari, that's, Ron Sherman, Gen, Mark Zuckerberg, Dan DeFrancesco, Jack Sommers, Jordan Parker Erb, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Fed, Chelsea, Spotify, Visa, US Justice Department, Prosecutors, Meta Locations: Austin , Texas, New York, London
Morgan Stanley is now looking ahead at the perfect mixture of conditions for a strong fourth quarter. The firm is squarely focused on an improvement in the labor market driving the best possible returns. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve nailed the rate-cut scenario that Morgan Stanley called its best-case result leading into the decision. Heading into last week's announcement, Morgan Stanley was looking for a 50-basis-point cut that didn't also stoke worries about unnecessary growth. To be sure, job conditions are not the only thing Morgan Stanley is watching.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, , didn't, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Federal, Service, Reserve, stoke, Bank of America, Conference Board
Read previewThere's a 70% chance the US economy is either in a recession or headed toward one in the months ahead, according to Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong. The one that stands out most to Wong is the much-talked-about sustained rise in the unemployment rate. "Initially, in all the recessions, this is how the unemployment rate tends to rise," she said. Another key metric economists watch to judge whether the economy is in recession is consumer spending, which makes up around two-thirds of GDP in the US. LendingTreeWong believes wealthier Americans are spending due to the wealth effect, where high asset prices boost consumer confidence and fuel spending.
Persons: , Anna Wong, Wong, Louis Fed, Louis Fed Wong, LendingTree Wong Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Economics, Business, Fed Locations: St
Goldman SachsWage growth is down from 6% in August 2022 to 3.9%, according to Goldman Sachs. Still, Goldman Sachs thinks the US unemployment rate will drift down to 4% in 2025, which would be a healthy figure. An influx of immigrants may have affected this trend, Goldman Sachs economists say. Goldman SachsLabor costs rose 7% in 2023 for S&P 500 companies and 5% for firms in the Russell 2000, Goldman found. Goldman Sachs shared a sector-neutral list of 50 stocks in the S&P 500 that have high labor costs, which should disproportionately benefit as wage inflation slows as raises become rarer.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Russell, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Goldman, Chief US, Goldman Sachs Labor, Companies Locations: Goldman Sachs
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