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☆ Markets are grappling with the impact of Trump's win and how the Fed will react
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

However, he went on to back up Chair Jerome Powell 's statement Thursday that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry" to cut. "I do think if there's disagreement of what's the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing." Getting to neutral, or a place that neither boosts nor restrains growth, is the Fed's ultimate goal, but Trump's victory could complicate the journey. The burst of euphoria after Trump's win actually complicates the situation by providing looser financial conditions that might make the Fed slower to ease. In any event, traders see a high likelihood that even if a December cut does happen, the Fed almost certainly will skip January as it assesses the landscape.

Persons: Donald Trump, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins Organizations: Trump, Wall, Federal, Chicago Federal, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Boston Fed, Traders

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Dow sheds 1,000 points, Japan stocks rebound
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Abid Ali | Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. Siegel believes the current fed funds rate "should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," citing the higher-than-expected unemployment rate and declining inflation as reasons for the cuts. "How much have we moved the fed funds rate?

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, Korea's Kospi, Richard Kaye Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Nikkei, Honda, Renesas Electronics, CSI Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Dow sheds 1,000 points
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Abid Ali | Kevin Lim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street sinksThe Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 suffered their sharpest declines in nearly two years, as growing concerns about the U.S. economy rocked global stock markets. The Dow plummeted over 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 3% and 3.4%, respectively. Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel urged the Federal Reserve to make an emergency 75-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate following Friday's disappointing jobs data. [PRO] Don't panicDespite a global stock market rout, several investors and strategists advised against panicking at this point.

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, Amit Mehta, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, CNBC's, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Nexo, Antoni Trenchev, panicking Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Tesla, Berkshire, Google, Department of Justice, Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, bitcoin Locations: U.S

☆ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says if economy deteriorates, Fed will 'fix it'
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders

☆ Lower interest rates could be coming soon. Here's what's at stake if they aren't.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal

☆ Gold drifts higher as rising Fed rate cut expectations boost appeal
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Spot gold rose 0.1% at $2,388.10 per ounce, as of 0255 GMT, after gaining more than 1% to its highest since April 19 on Wednesday. "Following the April consumer price index data, the odds for a potential September rate cut have firmed, which suits the gold price from a yield perspective," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. However, a potential bounce in the dollar or treasury yields could be the biggest hurdle for gold price in the remainder of the week." Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Persons: Tim Waterer, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell's Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasury, KCM, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Locations: .

☆ Americans have spent their savings. Economists worry about what comes next
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-07 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But now that extra spending money is gone, economists are concerned about what comes next. That means many Americans have more debt than savings and suggests “that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” they wrote in a recent report. Consumer spending plays a crucial role in driving economic growth in the United States, and it has shown remarkable strength over the past two years. “A continuing strong labor market could help consumers maintain spending patterns similar to those observed recently, even without pandemic-era savings,” they wrote. What comes next: Disney, Airbnb, Uber, Anheuser-Busch, Tapestry and Dillards all report later this week — investors will look for any comments about how consumer spending, or lack thereof, is altering revenue forecasts for 2024.

Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Edgard Oliveira, ”, Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, Fitch, Sarah Wyeth, Chris Kempczinski, Abdelrahman, Airbnb, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Greg Abel, Buffett, “, Abel, isn’t, Boeing “, Scott Stocker, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Chicago Federal, Society for, ”, Shoppers, Tyson Foods, “, Disney, Anheuser, Busch, Berkshire, International Monetary Fund, Industries, Nvidia, Microsoft, FAA, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, CNN Locations: New York, United States, Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, scamming

☆ Americans are falling behind on their payments
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are already struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. Strong consumer spending has buoyed the US economy through the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle that has brought interest rates to a 23-year high. Economists say that Fed officials look closely at Americans’ ability to make their payments. Nunes, himself a former Republican congressman from California, pointed to how Trump Media has been among the most expensive stocks to borrow. “This is particularly troubling given that ‘naked’ short selling often entails sophisticated market participants profiting at the expense of retail investors,” the Trump Media CEO wrote.

Persons: New York CNN —, Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, ”, Ramon Laguarta, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, ” Nunes, Nunes, Read, Hanna Ziady, Colm Kelleher, “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Chicago Federal, Society for, New York Fed, ISI, PepsiCo, Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Social, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Financial Services, Republican, Traders, UBS, Credit Suisse Locations: New York, California, Switzerland, Swiss

☆ Gold retreats as Middle East tensions ebb
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum in Munich. Gold prices dipped on Monday, as easing fears of a wider Middle East conflict lowered bullion's safe-haven appeal, while market participants awaited a key U.S. inflation reading due later this week for interest rate cues. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $2,369.97 per ounce, as of 0451 GMT. Asian stocks recovered some losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider Middle East conflict ebbed, with investors gravitating back towards riskier assets. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.3% to $27.99 per ounce, spot platinum rose 0.3% to $934.03, and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,023.17.

Persons: Kelvin Wong, Wong, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Aurum, Asia Pacific, Treasury, Chicago Federal Locations: Munich, U.S, Tehran, Iran, OANDA, Israel, Hamas

☆ Oil prices retreat as U.S. crude build, rate cut concerns come to the fore
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May , which expires on Monday, fell 12 cents to $83.02 a barrel. Iran is the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, according to Reuters data. ANZ analysts said in a note that volatility in the Middle East will keep oil markets "jittery". On Saturday, a blast at an Iraqi military base killed a member of a security force that includes Iran-backed groups. Separately, on Sunday, Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah said it downed an Israeli drone that was on a combat mission in southern Lebanon.

Persons: Brent, Tina Teng, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: West Texas, Chicago Federal, Energy, U.S . House, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Iran, U.S, Ukraine, China, Iraqi, Sunday, Lebanese, Lebanon, Gaza

☆ Fed’s Goolsbee says ‘more sniffing’ may be needed before rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Kelli Grant | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, U.S., February 14, 2024. Staff | Reuters"If you take a broad view, inflation got way above where we were comfortable with and it's down a lot," he said. The first three readings for this year indicate covering the remaining distance to 2% "may not be as rapid," he added. He described himself as a "proud data dog," and pointed to what he says is "the first rule of the kennel." "If you are unclear, stop walking and start sniffing," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Council, Foreign Relations, Staff, Reuters, Market Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Why a small China-made EV has global auto execs and politicians on edge
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-22 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The rise of BYD and other Chinese automakers led Tesla CEO Elon Musk in January to warn that Chinese automakers will "demolish" global rivals without trade barriers. Caresoft, an engineering benchmarking and consulting firm, has already torn down one China-built BYD Seagull and is preparing to do another. Michael Wayland / CNBCThe consulting firm tore apart the BYD Seagull piece by piece to benchmark the small EV against vehicles from other startups and traditional automakers. Its initial study of the BYD Seagull found it to be efficiently and simplistically designed, engineered and executed, but with unexpected quality and anticipated reliability. Growing concernsBYD's rise comes at a precarious time for global auto industry dynamics.

Persons: It's, Terry Woychowski, Warren Buffett, —, BYD, Tesla, Elon Musk, Caresoft Bernstein, Nissan, Michael Wayland, Caresoft, simplistically, Woychowski, Mathew Vachaparampil, CNBC BYD, Stellantis —, Donald Trump, Zach Gibson, Jennifer Granholm, Republican Sen, Marco Rubio, Trump, –, GM Dong, Tang, Marin Gjaja, Gjaja, Ford, you've, Evelyn Cheng, Dylan Butts Organizations: Shanghai International Automobile Industry, National Exhibition, Convention Center, Visual China, Getty, U.S, General Motors, Caresoft, Alliance for American Manufacturing, Overseas, Chevrolet, Nissan Leaf, Bolt, Chicago Federal Reserve, BYD, CNBC, Cox Automotive, Seagull, Tesla, Toyota Motor, Nissan Motor, Honda Motor, Hyundai, Kia, — GM, Ford, Chrysler, U.S ., Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Republican, North American Free Trade, Republicans, Buick, SAIC, GM, GM Dong Yue Motors Co, Detroit Locations: Shanghai, LIVONIA, Mich, –, China, Europe, Latin America, Detroit, Texas, Germany, Japan, U.S, Livonia , Michigan, America, XPENG, Mexico, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Hungary, Uzbekistan, ., Washington ,, United States, Marco Rubio of Florida, Yantai, Shandong Province

☆ Fed's Goolsbee expects easing shelter inflation to seal path to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Nov 17 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said the U.S. central bank will "do what it takes" to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% goal, but that inflation looks to be already on that track if housing price pressures ease as expected. "The overwhelmingly important thing of whether we are going to clearly be on path for inflation is what happens to house price inflation," Goolsbee said at the Chicago Fed's annual Community Bankers Symposium. "If we hit the targets that we expect to hit, then we would be on path to get to 2%, and that's what I call the golden path -- no recession, and it gets down -- but that housing inflation is the thing we should really keep an eye on." Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Chicago, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Goolsbee sees inflation falling fast without jobless surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. A Labor Department report earlier on Tuesday showed the consumer price index rose 3.2% in October from a year earlier, down more than 3 percentage points from January. The Fed targets 2% inflation by a different measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, which was 3.4% in September. Going forward, Goolsbee said he's focused on inflation data and sees overheating as a lesser risk than an external shock. "The key to further progress over the next few quarters will be what happens to housing inflation," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, he's, Paul Simao Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal, Detroit Economic, Labor Department, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Strange, but good, things are happening in markets and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 10 basis points to 4.569% and the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.915%. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Both the economy and markets have truly acted in strange, unprecedented ways ever since the pandemic.

Persons: Spencer Platt, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, — Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: New York City, That's, Israel

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Goolsbee’s ‘golden path’ is still visible
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineLast month's sudden surge in Treasury yields and oil prices — both of which tend to suppress investors' appetite for stocks — looks to be ending. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC, "Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession."

Persons: Goolsbee, David Paul Morris, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, — Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: Moran , Wyoming, That's, Israel

☆ Fed’s Goolsbee says 'golden path' of a huge drop in inflation without a recession is still possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession," Goolsbee said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "The fastest drop in the inflation rate in any year was 1982," Goolsbee said. So we're making progress on the inflation rate." Goolsbee stressed that accomplishing such a "golden path" against a historic surge in inflation won't be an easy task. The Fed president said the central bank will be data dependent going forward, echoing Chair Jerome Powell's comments last week.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we've, Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Chicago Federal, Federal, Market, CNBC PRO Locations: hasn't

☆ Fed's Goolsbee does not see rise in long-term yields imperiling soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee

☆ Factbox: Impact of possible strikes on Detroit Three automakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A strike would ground production to a halt, costing billions of dollars in losses for automakers as well as their suppliers. UAW workers have struck work for two days at GM and for one day at Chrysler in 2007. Prior to 1976, strikes were frequently used as a bargaining tool at Detroit Three. STRIKE IMPACTThe Detroit Three automakers account for about 40% of U.S. new light vehicle sales by units, according to J.P. Morgan. STRIKE TOLLTen-day strikes at all three automakers could cost manufacturers, workers, suppliers and dealers more than $5 billion, according to economic consulting firm Anderson Economic Group.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Kristin Dzizcek, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Sam Fiorani, Anderson, Mehr Bedi, Nathan Gomes, Joe White, Anil D'Silva Organizations: General Motors, REUTERS, Ford Motor, UAW, DETROIT, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, GM, Ford, Chrysler, Chicago Federal Reserve, Detroit, IHS, AutoForecast Solutions, Intelligence, Deloitte, Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Anderson Economic, Deutsche Bank Research, Thomson Locations: Detroit , Michigan, U.S, United States, Bengaluru, Detroit

☆ Asia markets set to start the week mixed after Jackson Hole announcements
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday the central bank should stick to its goal to bring inflation down to 2%. "I'm uncomfortable with declaring victory when it's clearly not victory," Goolsbee said. "We stated before we got into this what the target was going to be. I just don't feel like you can change your inflation target until you hit it that." Generally considered a more dovish member of the Federal Open Market Committee, Goolsbee did not commit to a policy position.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson, it's, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Chicago Federal, Federal, Market Locations: , Wyoming

☆ Morning Bid: August cools Wall St stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's factory underperformance stood out once again and underlined its struggling recovery - perhaps the main driver of stalling industrial activity everywhere. With markets increasingly impatient at the patchy and underwhelming economic stimulus plans seen from Beijing so far, China stocks fell back (.CSI300), bucking Tuesday's wider Asia stocks rally. Sterling and UK stocks (.FTMC) fell back. Ride-hailing giant Uber's stock rose more than 2% before the bell and ahead of its earnings report. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, underperformance, Austan Goolsbee, Goolbee, Stanley Black, Decker, Zimmer Biomet, Revvity, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S ., Chicago Fed, Bank of England, Sterling, AMD, Caterpillar, Big Pharma, Pfizer, Merck, Ride, HSBC, BP, Uber, Prudential Financial, AIG, Starbucks, Molson Coors, Boston Properties, Caesars Entertainment, Illinois Tool, Natural Resources, Energy, Devon Energy, Gartner, Allstate, Paycom Software, Electronic, WEC, Rockwell, Public Service Enterprise, P Global, Dallas Fed, Chicago Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, Beijing, China, Asia, ., Marathon, Eaton, Altria, Marriott, Illinois, Progressive

☆ Gold subdued on dollar strength as markets await economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A technician cleans impurities from melted gold bars at Primera Gold's laboratory in Bukavu, South Kivu Province, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, May 12, 2023. Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar climbed, while investors looked forward to key economic data this week for signs on how long the interest rates could keep rising to quell sticky inflation. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,961.49 per ounce by 0343 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.5% to $1,961.10 per ounce. Gold prices ended July 2.3% higher, the biggest monthly rise in four months on expectations that an end to the rate-hiking cycle by global central banks was nearing. This is why the central banks are sticking with the data-dependent mantra," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nicholas Frappell, Austan Goolsbee, Tim Waterer, Waterer Organizations: Primera Gold's, U.S, ABC Refinery, Chicago Federal, KCM Trade Locations: Bukavu, South Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of Congo, Chicago

On Tuesday, Goolsbee said his own decision at the Fed's next meeting in September will be driven by what happens on prices. And those metrics suggest, Goolsbee said, that the Fed is on the "golden path" of disinflation without a recession. But, he added, he does not see a tight connection between labor market tightness and inflation - meaning, he believes that inflation can fade even as the job market stays healthy. The Fed's September rate call will depend on what happens with inflation, as will how long the Fed will keep rates high and when it will start cutting, he said. "The answer is, it totally depends on whether we're able to navigate the path and get inflation down without a recession," he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Obama, Brendan McDermid, Goolsbee, that's, Banks, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: University of Chicago, Democracy, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, U.S, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London

"That would be a Fed triumph and that can involve a couple of rate increases over this year." Remarks from Goolsbee previously sounded more skeptical of the need for further rate hikes on top of what the Fed has already done. The report is suggestive of labor market cooling, Goolsbee said, and the full effect of the Fed's 500 basis points of rate hikes since last March is still to come. Financial markets are pricing a Fed rate hike when policymakers next meet, in two and a half weeks. Services inflation even pre-pandemic was typically higher than the Fed's 2% goal, he said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we're, Ann Saphir, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, CNBC, Fed, Thomson

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