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☆ Futures falter as Fed forecasts further rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders see a 72% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in July, up from around 60% a day earlier, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. "Powell expressed that the committee seemed surprised about the resilience of current inflation even if Tuesday's CPI print showed a continued slowing in the headline inflation rate," said Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments. The S&P 500 (.SPX) and Nasdaq (.IXIC) rose for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday, while the Dow (.DJI) ended down following the Fed decision. ET, Dow e-minis were down 78 points, or 0.23%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 18.25 points, or 0.41%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 107 points, or 0.7%. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: TD Cowen, Powell, Charles Hepworth, Shristi Achar, Sruthi Shankar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, GAM Investments, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Dow e, Investors, Kohls Corp, Alibaba, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru

Growth came mostly from exports, the result of a revival in global trade as China re-opened for business after the pandemic. But national data showed price growth remained stubbornly high, probably leaving the ECB with no choice but to keep raising interest rates. Friday's inflation data showed progress was slow. IMF CALLS FOR MORE RATE HIKESMoney markets currently price in another 70 basis points of ECB rate hikes by October, possibly followed by cuts as early as the start of next year. It also said European Union finance ministers should tighten fiscal policy in concerted action to bring down high inflation, which would probably depress consumption further.

☆ UK economy flat in February as strikes and inflation bite — and the IMF delivers reality check
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy flatlined in February as widespread industrial action and persistently high inflation stymied activity. Large-scale strike action has been carried out in recent months by teachers, doctors, civil servants and rail workers, among others — members of the sectors that were the largest contributors to the fall in February services output. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility no longer expects the U.K. economy to enter a technical recession in 2023 — defined as two consecutive quarters of contractions. "Industrial strike action was the primary root cause of stagnating growth in the U.K. over the month. Much of the population also remains mired in a cost-of-living crisis, as inflation continues to vastly outpace wage growth, exacerbating the threat of further industrial action.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in February from 0.5% in January as Americans faced persistently higher costs for rents and food. On a yearly basis, the CPI rose 6% in February, compared with 6.4% the previous month. The S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) rose 2.9% after recording its biggest one-day percentage drop since June 2020 in the previous session. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 6.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 3.52-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 79 new lows.

LONDON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks like it's being outed as the weakest link. The primary reason was that two of the nine-person MPC voted to end the Bank's rate rise campaign right away as the recession the Bank thinks is already underway will get entrenched next year. But with the median economist forecast for the Bank's terminal rate somewhere around 4.25%, markets still seem aggressively positioned for a hawkish surprise and the pound may be more vulnerable to that revision as the winter progresses. Significantly, the implied Fed terminal rate edged higher to 4.9% after its policy setpiece on Wednesday - even if is still below the 5.1% the Fed indicated. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

The net effect was to catapult next year's implied Fed terminal rate well above 5%. Fed vs BoE Terminal RatesNIESR chart on UK variable mortgagesBANK "IN A HOLE"Although the BoE insisted further hikes from 3% would likely be needed, two of the nine person policymaking council voted for a smaller rate rise this week. State Street's EMEA macro strategist Tim Graf also thinks a terminal rate closer to 4% is now "the more likely end state for policy rates." The BoE needs to be super careful about the pound because another withering lurch will simply aggravate import and energy price inflation. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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