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The interest rate outlook will come back into focus next week with key inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes coming out ahead of Thanksgiving, as investors wrap up a major month for markets following President-elect Donald Trump's election victory. The October personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index set to release Wednesday could dent already-dimming hopes for a December rate cut if it comes in hotter than expected. The inflation rate is expected to have increased 0.2% month over month and 2.3% year on year. Rosy expectations Even with the interest rate cut expectations coming in, investors are optimistic on the direction for stocks to close out the year and into 2025. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this week said he expects the S & P 500 can end next year at 6,500.
Persons: Donald Trump's, , Luke O'Neill, Stocks, O'Neill, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brian Belski, Tom Hainlin, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Alpha Fund, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, BMO, UBS, Bank Asset Management, Dell Technologies, Chicago, New, Richmond Fed, Devices, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago
Now we see it's very common for these store cards to charge over 30%." Just before the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September, many retailers and their bank partners raised interest rates on their store cards to protect their profits when the federal funds rate — which determines their own interest rates — came down. Now, the average interest rate on a store card is at an all-time high just ahead of the holiday shopping season, which is when most consumers sign up for store cards. That was less than half of the interest rate increase for store cards seen from September 2023 to September 2024, when the federal funds rate didn't budge. When asked why they increased the APR on their store cards, the companies that returned CNBC's request for comment pointed vaguely to industry standards and the current economic environment.
Persons: Tommy, Petco, Ted Rossman, it's, Jasmine Matheney, Nordstrom, Matheney, you've, preemptively Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Navy, Academy Sports, Fed, CNBC, Comenity Bank, Big Lots Locations: Petco, Burlington, Macy's, Michael's, Michigan
Dollar hugs 13-month peak as market awaits next Fed cue
  + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Global PMIs are due later in the day, although those figures should not "change the dial too much," said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG. Recent comments from Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated the central bank may take a slower course in its rate cut path. Among Trump policies on weighing on investors' minds were the president-elect's campaign pledges of tariffs, with Europe and China both likely in the firing line. The euro , which makes up a hefty portion of the dollar index, steadied at $1.0475 after falling to a 13-month low of $1.0461 on Thursday. The dollar was last down 0.17% on the day at 154.27 yen.
Persons: Tony Sycamore, It's, it's, Sycamore, Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, CME's, Trump, Sterling, Bitcoin, Marcel Thieliant, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: The U.S, greenback, Bank of Japan's, Global, IG, U.S, PCE, Trump, Capital Economics Locations: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, The, Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Asia
One basis point equals 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell more than 1 basis point to 4.390%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury slipped by nearly 2 basis points to 4.291%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dipped on Thursday as investors await a fresh batch of economic data and a flurry of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. Existing home sales for October and the Kansas City Fed survey for November are scheduled to follow slightly later in the session. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr are all poised to deliver remarks about the U.S. economy on Thursday.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Beth Hammack, Austan Goolsbee, Jeff Schmid, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Samantha Subin, Sophie Kiderlin Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, Kansas City Fed, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Washington, Moscow, Kansas, U.S
Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
  + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris
AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
AdvertisementRussia's central bank has been hiking its key interest rate to combat inflation. Business leaders have slammed Russia's increasing interest rate, saying it restricted their growth. Russia's top central banker, Elvira Nabiullina, told the government yesterday that the country is approaching a "turning point" for inflation and interest rates, Moscow-based RBC Group reported. Last month, to tame prices, Russia's central bank hiked its key interest rate to a record high of 21%. He also downgraded Russia's fixed capital investment growth from 1.9% to 1%, blaming the central bank's key rate.
Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Andrei Klepach, Alexander Shokhin Organizations: Business, RBC Group, State Duma, Industrialists Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Russian Union
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump presidency adds to uncertainty for euro zone economy, European Central Bank's De Guindos saysLuis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, discusses inflation and growth in the euro area, the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump in the U.S. and the ECB's latest Financial Stability Review.
Persons: De Guindos, Luis de Guindos, Donald Trump Organizations: Email Trump, European Central Bank Locations: U.S
India's central bank will launch a pilot program in 2025 offering local cloud data storage to financial firms at affordable prices, according to two sources aware of the matter, who declined to be identified as conversations are confidential. The Reserve Bank of India's planned cloud platform will use local IT firms, pitting it against the likes of Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and IBM Cloud, in a first-of-its-kind initiative from a major global central bank. In December last year, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das announced plans to set up a public cloud for the financial services industry. Initial work on the cloud is being driven by the research wing of the central bank called the Indian Financial Technology and Allied Services. It will then be developed further in partnership with one or more private sector technology firms, according to the sources.
Persons: Shaktikanta Das, EY Organizations: Bank, Reserve Bank of, Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Google, IBM, International Data Corporation, Indian Financial Technology, Allied Services, Reuters
Shelby Tauber | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAfter enjoying the postelection rally, investors are turning their attention to issues like inflation and interest rates again. Powell added that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry to lower rates" because the of "the strength we are currently seeing in the economy." For investors who were riding high on the postelection rally and are now descending to earth, their landing sure feels like a bumpy one.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Shelby Tauber, Powell, Rick Rieder, Rieder, , Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Sarah Min Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Fair, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Consumer, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Dallas , Texas, U.S
Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards. Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October largely that he attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. Powell added that the calculus of getting the move to neutral rate will be tricky. The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month.
Persons: Powell, Nonfarm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Traders, Federal, Committee Locations: Dallas
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), after Republican Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, in New York City, U.S., November 6, 2024. U.S. stocks slid on Thursday, as fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that economic strength could warrant some patience with future rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 189 points, or 0.4%, after falling more than 250 points at the lows of the session. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully," Powell said. Those moves come after the October producer price index released Thursday rose 0.2%, matching forecasts from economists polled by Dow Jones.
Persons: Republican Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Stocks, Powell, Tesla, Dow Jones, Donald Trump's, Jay Woods Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Republican, U.S, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Trump, Russell, PPI, Dow, Freedom Capital Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas
The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. The consumer price index , which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September. Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Trump, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Dow, of Labor Statistics, Stock, Federal Reserve, Energy, BLS, White, CPI, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
So far on Wednesday, the stock market was largely ignoring the morning's inflation report because the main CPI reading was as economists expected. But a look deeper into the report spells trouble for a stock market — and president-elect — that are going to want the Federal Reserve to keep cutting rates throughout next year to keep fueling the bull market. However, in recent months, policymakers have focused more on the headline number, saying shelter costs, which have an outsized influence on core CPI, will come down. But core inflation has remained unusually stubborn, suggesting the Fed may have to hold rates higher than investors were previously anticipating. Core CPI showed a third straight monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual rate to 3.3%.
Persons: Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, Rupkey, Donald Trump, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, White, Washington , D.C Locations: Washington ,
My bank has lowered the APY on my high-yield savings account by almost half a percent recently. AdvertisementIt's never pleasant to receive an email from your bank informing you that the interest rate on your high-yield savings account is decreasing. From August until the end of October, the annual percentage yield (APY) on my high-yield savings account has fallen from 4.6% to 4.2%. After paying off my bills every month, I would put the remainder of my paycheck into my high-yield savings account and watch the number creep up. Is there anything I can do about the state of my savings account, or do I have to watch my yield erode away slowly?
Persons: I'm, , I've, Jerome Powell, Patti Black, it's, Jerome Powell's, Black, Daniel Milan, Milan, that's, Richard McHorter, There's, McHorter, Trump's, What's, Zer, Christine, cji Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Savant Wealth, Cornerstone Financial Services, SRM Private Wealth, Treasury Locations: Milan, California, New York City
The U.S. Federal Reserve could carry out fewer interest rate cuts than previously expected next year should President-elect Donald Trump's proposed global tariffs take hold, former Fed policymaker Loretta Mester said Tuesday. Markets trimmed their forecasts for rate cuts following Trump's election victory last week, with speculation growing around his tariff proposals and their implications for the world economy. It comes as concern is growing among global policymakers about the implications of Trump's fiscal plans, particularly on tariffs. "A trade war is the last thing we need," he continued. "If a trade war is to start, the European Union must not be unprepared as it was in 2018."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Loretta Mester, Mester, they're, Trump, It's, there's, , Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: U.S . Federal, UBS European Conference, Cleveland Federal Reserve, Reuters, Trump, Bank of Finland, European Central Bank policymaker, UBS, European Union Locations: London, U.S, Europe, European
Russia's economy faces stress as high interest rates fail to control inflation. Business leaders criticize high rates, warning of potential bankruptcies and an economic slowdown. The data from Rosstat, Russia's federal statistics service, show that food prices have generally risen across the board this year. To tame prices, Russia's central bank has hiked its key interest rate to a record high of 21% last month. High interest rates are irritating business leaders, who are more loudly critiquing the central bank's policies.
Persons: , It's, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Chemezov, Chemezov Organizations: Business, Service, MMI Locations: Ukraine, Rosstat, Russian, Russia
Neel Kashkari, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaks at the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 7, 2024. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff proposals could worsen long-term inflation if global trade partners were to strike back. One-time tariffs, Kashkari said on CBS' "Face the Nation," "shouldn't have an effect long run on inflation." "The challenge becomes, if there's a tit for tat and it's one country imposing tariffs and then responses and it's escalating. Trump and his backers like billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk have also been outspoken about their desire to give the president input on Fed policy decisions.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, The Beverly Hilton, Donald Trump's, Kashkari, Trump, We've, Tesla, Elon Musk Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, The Beverly, Minneapolis Federal, Sunday, CBS, U.S, Wall Street Locations: Beverly Hills , California, U.S, Minneapolis, China
Russian officials and business leaders met at an economic forum this week. Russia's main interest rate is at 21% and could be hiked further still. Officials and business leaders shared pessimistic economic outlooks for 2025 at the Russian Economic Forum, held this week in Chelyabinsk, in central Russia. Andrei Klepach, chief economist at the state-run development entity VEB.RF, predicted that economic growth would fall from an estimated 2.5% to around 2% in 2025. Some, he said, would benefit from a subsidized interest rate of 1% to 5%.
Persons: , Andrei Klepach, Alexander Shokhin, Shokhin, Mikhail Mishustin, Alexander Novak, Kirill Tremasov Organizations: Service, Russian Economic, Central Bank of Russia, Industrialists, Russian, Russia's Locations: Chelyabinsk, Russia, Ukraine, Russian Union, Russian
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, the Fed cutting interest rates yesterday was never really in doubt . Additional rate cuts aren't as clear, though, as Donald Trump's proposed widespread tariffs could slow down the Fed's plans . The market is indicating inflation could lead the Fed to keep borrowing rates high. AdvertisementGreg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, told Insider Today that Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't indicate a pause in cuts was coming in December during Thursday's press conference.
Persons: , MANDEL NGAN, Chelsea Jia Feng, Donald Trump's, Paul Krugman, It's, Chip Somodevilla, Greg McBride, Jerome Powell didn't, Powell, McBride, There's, Dominique Lapointe, Lapointe, Trump, ANGELA WEISS, Morningstar, Trump's, Dave Sekera, Goldman execs, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Donald Trump, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Elon Musk, David Zaslav, Zaslav, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Ella Hopkins, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, BI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, Manulife Investment Management, Morningstar, Elon, Trump, Keystone State, Big Tech's, Walmart, Target, Costco, Big Media, Warner Bros, Discovery, Paramount, Sony Locations: AFP, China, Pennsylvania, New York, London
Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Friday as investors considered the outlook for interest rates and the economy after the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut decision. Treasury yields had tumbled on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut to a target range of 4.50%-4.75%. The Fed began easing rates at its previous meeting in September with a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. One Fed meeting remains on the agenda for this year on December 17 to 18, for which traders were last pricing in an around 75% chance of another rate cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed
Dollar winds down after volatile week, China NPC in focus
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar further unwound some of its sharp gains from earlier in the week as traders closed out profitable bets on a Trump presidency after his election victory. That helped lift sterling back toward the $1.30 mark, while the yen similarly got some respite and hovered closer to the 153 per dollar level. Sterling last traded $1.2983, recovering from its fall to a roughly three-month low earlier in the week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar ticked up 0.03% to 104.44, on track to gain just above 0.1% for the week. "All eyes are on what may emerge from China's policy toolkit after the conclusion of the NPC standing committee meeting."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kerry Craig, Trump, Wells, Jay Bryson, Sterling, David Chao Organizations: White, National People's Congress, Trump, Federal Reserve, Morgan Asset Management, Traders, Bank of England, NPC, New Zealand, Asia Pacific, European Union Locations: U.S, Beijing, Germany, Wells Fargo, Japan, Invesco
European markets are heading for a mixed open as global investors digest Donald Trump's presidential election win and political upheaval in Germany. They also await monetary policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of England. Global markets continue to react to Donald Trump's decisive election win, with U.S. stocks rallying Wednesday as Wall Street rejoiced the speedy conclusion of the presidential election. Central banks will be closely watched Thursday, with the Fed and BoE both expected to announce rate cuts. Scholz announced he would bring a vote of confidence to the German parliament on Jan. 15.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Germany's DAX, BoE, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Lindner's, Scholz Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, France's CAC, IG, Global, Fed Locations: Germany, Asia, Pacific, U.S
A one-kilogram gold bar sits at Gold Investments Ltd. bullion dealers in this arranged photograph in London, U.K., on Wednesday, July 29, 2020. Gold prices touched a more than three-week low on Thursday, as the dollar strengthened after Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, while focus was also on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision later in the day. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,656.34 per ounce, as of 0327 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Oct. 15 earlier in the session. Bullion hit a record high of $2,790.15 last week and has lost more than $130 since then. Still expect prices to hit $3,000 next year," said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Bullion, Trump, Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Peter Fung Organizations: Gold Investments, U.S, Asia Pacific, Metals Locations: London, Asia
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
watch nowThe Federal Reserve approved its second consecutive interest rate cut Thursday, moving at a less aggressive pace than before but continuing its efforts to rightsize monetary policy. Among them was an altered view in how it assesses the effort to bring down inflation while supporting the labor market. The statement slightly downgraded the labor market, saying "conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low." Generally, the labor market has held up well. An acceleration in economic activity under Trump could persuade the Fed to cut rates less, depending on how inflation reacts.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, nonfarm, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, Pace Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Gross, Atlanta Fed, Trump Locations: Tuesday's
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