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Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Monday he is anticipating an interest rate cut in December but is concerned about recent trends on inflation that could change his mind. That would follow a half-point cut in September and a quarter-point reduction in November. “As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting,” Waller said. Waller said he will watch incoming employment and inflation data closely. Even with the slowing progress on inflation, Waller said broader economic health has him feeling like it will be appropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, payrolls Organizations: Federal, Fed, , Labor Statistics Locations: Washington
The personal consumption expenditures price index, a broad measure that the Fed prefers as its inflation gauge, increased 0.2% on the month and showed a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%. Both were in line with the Dow Jones consensus forecast, though the annual rate was higher than the 2.1% level in September. The annual rate was 0.1 percentage point above the prior month. Odds of a quarter percentage point reduction in the central bank’s key borrowing rate were at 66% Wednesday morning, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch measure. The release follows consecutive rate cuts by the Fed in September and November totaling three quarters of a percentage point.
Persons: Dow, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Fed, Labor
CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge just moved in the wrong direction. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.3% in October from the year before, accelerating from the 2.1% pace notched in September, according to Commerce Department data released Wednesday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, matching the gain seen in September. Inflation within the services sector drove much of the monthly increase, as those prices rose 0.4% from September, while goods prices ticked up by 0.1%. Wednesday’s inflation readings were exactly what economists had anticipated: Consensus estimates called for a 0.2% monthly increase and for the annual rate to climb to 2.3%, according to FactSet.
Persons: Donald Trump, , We’re, Gus Faucher, Organizations: CNN, Federal, Commerce Department, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN Business
When Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at a meeting this month, they avoided clearly hinting at what might come next, minutes from the gathering show. The account of the central bank’s Nov. 6-7 meeting, released on Tuesday, offered few signals about whether Fed officials would be likely to cut interest rates at their gathering in December, or about how much they would be likely to lower them in 2025. Fed officials raised rates in 2022 and 2023 to make borrowing more expensive, with a goal of slowing the economy and wrestling rapid inflation under control. Because inflation has been cooling notably since peaking in 2022 and the job market has been showing signs of slowing, officials began to cut rates in September, and then made a second rate cut in November. The goal was to ease off the brakes, allowing the economy to slow gently without risking a painful crash.
Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed
Fed’s Powell: Rate cuts are still underway
  + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Powell said more rate cuts are likely underway because the economy’s current trends and dynamics are expected to remain in place, at least in the short run. “We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting,” Powell said in prepared remarks for an event in Dallas. It’s also too soon for Fed officials to conclude that October data is indicative of any new trend. While additional hot inflation reports could be factored in to the Fed’s decisions, officials are also looking at the US labor market closely. There’s also been tension between Trump and Powell, whom the president-elect first nominated in 2017 to steer the central bank.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Donald Trump, Trump’s, It’s, Price, , , There’s Organizations: Washington CNN — Federal, Republican, Fed Locations: Dallas, stoke, Trump
Price growth ticked higher in October as voters began casting ballots in a presidential election in which economic concerns played a big role. The consumer price index climbed to 2.6% last month since the same time last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Stock futures turned higher, while traders bid up the price of government bonds. All-important shelter costs rose 0.4% from September to October, accounting for over half the monthly gains, the BLS said. Over the past four years, consumer prices have cumulatively increased about 20%, with the costs of many other goods and services rising even faster.
Persons: That's, Joe Biden’s, ” Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, , Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell Organizations: of Labor Statistics, BLS, Charles, Charles Schwab Center, Financial Research, ” Voters, White House, Trump, Investors, Adobe, National Retail Federation, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Citi Locations:
“The Federal Reserve is one of many examples of how we’ve deviated from the Constitution in that regard,” Lee added. Challenging the Fed’s independence“The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. That’s empowered Fed officials to make interest rate decisions that aren’t necessarily popular but could help the nation’s economy in the long run. But on the campaign trail, Trump floated requiring Fed officials to consult with him on interest rate decisions. That could lead to pressure on Fed officials to keep rates lower to satisfy Trump’s wishes, which in turn could reignite inflation.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, it’ll, Elon Musk, Republican Sen, Mike Lee, ” Lee, Jerome Powell, Trump, , Vance, Karoline Leavitt, Ron Paul, Thomas Massie of, Lee, ” Leavitt, it’s, That’s, Powell, , briskly, hasn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Trump, Republican, Fed, Federal, CNN, Treasury Department, National Association of Black Journalists, Republicans, Consumer Financial, Product Safety, Fed’s, of Governors, Consumer, Safety Locations: New York, Thomas Massie of Kentucky
Now, with many celebrating the apparent defeat of inflation, Summers is delivering another warning to Washington. Summers, the famed economist and former Treasury secretary, cautioned Tuesday that the inflation genie may not be back in the bottle. “My own judgement is that the Fed and markets are still underestimating the overheating risk,” Summers said during a conversation hosted by the New York Economic Club. “I am fearful that the Fed is going to be more like once burned, twice burned, rather than once burned, twice shy, on inflationary risks,” Summers said. “There is a very substantial risk that the president will attempt to implement what he talked about.
Persons: Larry Summers, Donald Trump, Summers, Trump, , ” Summers, Clinton, Biden, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Donald Trump’s, ” Trump, Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Reserve, Harvard, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: New York, Washington
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose Thursday, extending Wall Street’s rally in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, as traders weighed the latest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 gained 0.74% to close at a record high of 5,973.10. The S&P 500 jumped 2.53% for its best post-election day in history. Those big swings were the backdrop for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut Thursday afternoon. “The balance of risks gives the Fed ample room to lower the Fed Funds rate well into 2025.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump’s, Jerome Powell, , Jamie Cox, Trump, Tony Roth, we’ve, ” Roth, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Treasury, Harris Financial, Wilmington Trust, , Big Tech, Apple, Nvidia, JPMorgan, American Express Locations: Wilmington
Trump and the GOP have denied the tariffs would be inflationary, pointing to Trump’s success in imposing tariffs in his first term without reigniting inflation. Yet those tariffs, at $300 billion on selected Chinese goods, were much more targeted than the $3 trillion worth of blanket tariffs Trump is now expected to propose. And the inflationary environment is different now, too: During Trump’s first term, inflation only briefly ever climbed above 2%. It was Trump who appointed Powell to lead the Federal Reserve in his first term. But Trump has signaled a willingness this year to abandon the long-running principle of maintaining the Fed as an independent body.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump’s, Trump, ’ Anna Kelly, David Seif, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Trump, ” Seif, Seif Organizations: Federal, Wall, Federal Reserve, Nomura Holdings, Trump, GOP, Republican National Committee, Nomura, Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Economic, Reuters Locations: China
The move comes as inflation remains on a downward trend while the job market continues to lose momentum. While that has helped rein in price pressures, it also puts the job market in jeopardy. So I’m going to be patient.”Still, rate cuts are expected to stretch through 2025, even during a Trump presidency, according to economists. On one hand, there’s evidence that America’s job market has continued to lose momentum in recent months. But since Trump’s economic vision could eventually stoke inflation, that could mean the Fed delivers fewer rate cuts in the coming years.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, “ I’m, Raphael Bostic, , Kamala Harris, Felipe Villarroel, , Trump, hasn’t, Arthur Burns, Richard Nixon, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, President, White, Atlanta Fed, Trump, TwentyFour Asset Management, Fed, CNN, White House, Capitol Locations: Jackson , Mississippi
Whoever is elected the 47th president of the United States will start with a rare and clear advantage: a remarkably solid economy. Tuesday’s election will show how much that all matters to voters, who will soon decide which candidate they want to entrust the economy to from here. But to regular American households, it’s more of a “Yes, but” economy: Yes, the job market is strong, but my boss wants me in five days a week, and that doesn’t work for me anymore. Yes, inflation has fallen, but I can’t afford day care. Prices across the rest of the service economy were 4.7% higher overall, and medical care was up 3.9%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Spencer Platt, Yuki Iwamura, they’re, Helene, Milton, Patrick T, Fallon, Harris, , Greg Valliere, Joe Biden wasn’t, Trump, Karoline Leavitt, “ Kamala Organizations: Investment, Stock, Getty, Consumer, Bloomberg, CNBC, First Street Foundation, NBC, AGF Investments, Biden Locations: United States, Ukraine, Israel
“Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50bps (basis points)?” Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in a note on Friday. Second-guessing the Fed isn’t new, of course. Central bank officials themselves note the uncertainty inherent in their work, especially when the economy reaches inflection points. Even Fed officials don’t always agree with the central bank’s actions, such as Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the lone dissenter to the Fed’s decision to cut rates by half a point in September. ‘This isn’t exact science’Fed officials aren’t shy about admitting that they don’t always have confidence in how the US economy will evolve.
Persons: Washington CNN —, Jerome Powell, Philipp Carlsson, Seema Shah, James Knightley, Powell, don’t, Michelle Bowman, wouldn’t, , ” Carlsson, Szlezak, , ” Gina Bolvin Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Boston Consulting, Asset Management, ING, Bolvin Wealth Management Locations: Wall, Washington
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on September 18 in Washington, DC. Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve’s recent half-point cut will take some time to work through the system, Noah Yosif, chief economist and head of research at the American Staffing Association, told CNN. “Just because the Federal Reserve votes to decrease interest rates in September does not mean that employers are going to see lower costs in October,” he said, adding that it could take three to six months to filter through to businesses. More rate cuts are expected for later this year, but the extent will depend on the health of the labor market, and that outlook could be quite murky due to impact from the strikes and Hurricane Helene. Fed officials, who are scheduled to make the central bank’s next interest rate decision just days after the October jobs report lands, will do their best to look through the noise and what are likely idiosyncratic factors, said Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Anna Moneymaker, Noah Yosif, , , Helene, Ryan Sweet, Ejindu Ume Organizations: American Staffing Association, CNN, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Miami University in Locations: Washington , DC, Miami University in Ohio
CNN —US job growth surged in September, blowing past expectations and providing solid reassurance for the ongoing stability of the labor market. Employers added an estimated 254,000 jobs in September, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The outlook for the economy in the months ahead is quite favorable, according to the September jobs report. As job gains dropped off from their once breakneck pace, economists were quick to note that the labor market was merely slowing and not at risk of imminent collapse. “The labor market is strong,” she said.
Persons: , ” Brian Bethune, , Chris Rupkey, , Elise Gould, Gould, Jerome Powell, September’s, it’s, ” Bethune, , , Josh Hirt, ” Hirt, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Employers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boston College, Service, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Economic Policy Institute, Federal, Vanguard, Boeing
CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.
Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, , Erica Groshen, They’ve, , Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, , American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio
But we are not on any preset course,” he told the National Association for Business Economics in prepared remarks. A basis point equals 0.01%. “We do not believe that we need to see further cooling in labor market conditions to achieve 2 percent inflation,” Powell added. For his part, Powell expressed confidence in economic strength and sees inflation continuing to cool. Broader economic conditions also set the table for further disinflation.”Following the speech, Powell was scheduled to sit for a question-and-answer session with Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , ” Powell, Powell, , Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Committee, Fed Locations: Nashville
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday she thought her colleagues should have taken a more measured approach to last week’s half percentage point interest rate cut as she worries that inflation could reignite. In explaining her rationale, Bowman said the half percentage point, or 50 basis point, reduction posed a number of risks to the Fed’s twin goals of achieving low inflation and full employment. Though Bowman favored a reduction, she preferred the Fed lower by a quarter percentage point, more in line with the traditional moves at the central bank. In recent statements, Fed officials have cited easing inflation and a softening labor market as justification for the cut. At last week’s meeting, individual policymakers indicated they expect another half percentage point in cuts this year and another full point in 2025.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Organizations: Federal Locations: Kentucky
Lynn Song, chief economist for greater China ING, called the repo rate cut announcement “the most important” move made during the news conference. “If we see a large fiscal policy push as well, momentum could recover heading into the fourth quarter.”The headquarters of the People’s Bank of China in Beijing. During his first news conference as central bank governor in January, Pan said the PBOC would cut the reserve requirement ratio. Unlike the Fed’s focus on a main interest rate, the PBOC uses a variety of rates to manage monetary policy. Pan has indicated he would like the 7-day rate to become the main policy rate.
Persons: Pan Gongsheng, Pan, Lynn Song, , , Jiang Qiming, ” Edmund Goh, Goldman Sachs, Li Yunze, Li, Nomura Organizations: People’s Bank of China Gov, China ING, , U.S . Federal Reserve, People’s Bank of China, China News Service, Getty, Pan, National Financial Regulatory Administration Locations: BEIJING, China, Beijing, abrdn
Americans are fretting over the job market
  + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Washington CNN —America’s slowing job market is taking a toll on people’s moods. The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans became much more pessimistic about the US economy’s current health and the future of the job market. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated.”The US job market is in decent shape, but it is clearly running at a much slower pace these days than it has in recent years. Peterson said the weaker-than-expected survey results “reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages.”The job market’s fate is unclear. Employers might be holding back on hiring for two good reasons: Uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and the fate of interest rates, CNN previously reported.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, mightily, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board, Employers, Federal Reserve, CNN
Along with the economy, young voters also name abortion, immigration, foreign policy, climate and gun control as other priorities. A recent GenForward survey conducted by the University of Chicago supports what dozens of young voters told CNN. Foreign policyAmerica’s position on the world stage is also top of mind for young voters. The Israel-Hamas war has proved to be a key sticking point for progressive and young voters, as well as Arab American and Muslim communities. Regardless of what issues are galvanizing young voters to head to the polls, many say they think their turnout in November will surprise some people.
Persons: N’Dea Gordon, ” Gordon, Gordon, who’ve, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris –, they’ve, Logan Paul, Adin Ross, Harris, Vivek Rallabandi, Joe Biden, “ I’m, I’m, ” Rallabandi, Trump, Rallabandi, he’s, , hasn’t, she’s, Vivek, Darius Diggs, Biden, Diggs, , Darius Dupri Diggs, Darius Dupri Diggs Chaim Birzen, Birzen, “ That’s, Tyler Sands, Beyton Owens, Finn Gaensler, Finn, “ It’s, ” Gaensler, Roe, Wade, Ava Pallotta, Pallotta, Gen, Erin Clark, Kalkowski, Katelyn, Sebastien Ostertag, Sebastien Ostertag That’s, Ostertag, we’re, Jacob Telenko, ” Telenko, Jean Kojali, ” Kojali, Harris doesn’t, Harris ’, Noe Nunez, Nunez, ” Nunez, “ it’s, Jed Lyons, Joseph Yang, Yang, Joseph Yang “, “ We’re, CNN’s Kate Sullivan, Dana Elobaid Organizations: CNN, Western Governors University, University of Chicago, Trump, Federal Reserve, White, Republican, Marquette Law School, Senate, Trump’s, Harvard University, Boston Globe, Young, America, Democratic, US, Republican Party, Immigration, state’s Young Republican, United States Postal Service Locations: Columbus , Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rockland County , New York, America, Montana, California, Idaho, Santa Cruz , California, , Port Chester , New York, Chapel Hill , North Carolina, Dearborn , Michigan, Israel, Gaza, Ukraine, Henderson , Nevada, United States, Cobb County , Georgia, Mexico, Zebulon , North Carolina, Mexican American, Gilbert , Arizona, Phoenix, Korean, Chandler , Arizona
But Wall Street was mostly clueless this week when it came to predicting how big a rate cut the Fed would deliver on Wednesday. The jumbo half-point cut the Fed ultimately rolled out was not at all what traders expected a week ago. Powell: Fed officials ‘left the size of the rate cut open’ ahead of September meetingIn a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, Powell declared “the time has come” to cut interest rates. That data was apparently enough to spur some Fed officials to reconsider their position. “But we do not expect Fed officials to be intentionally opaque,” said Husby.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , , Price, Christopher Waller, , Powell’s, Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Michelle Bowman, “ We’re, Andrew Husby, Waller, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Fed, PPI, CNBC, Jefferies, BNP Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
What lower rates mean for markets
  + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed on Wednesday lowered interest rates, marking the first rate cut since March 2020. A decline in interest rates should, theoretically, mean good news for the stock market. The Fed likely won’t take rates lower as aggressively as they were raised, unless the economy takes a downturn and necessitates loose economic conditions. While mortgage rates and bond yields have begun drifting lower, companies and consumers still might not feel the effects of lower rates right away. But investors with outsized positions in Big Tech stocks should eye beaten-down areas of the market that benefit from lower interest rates, says Diton.
Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, , Jeff Buchbinder, Powell, Eric Diton Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, LPL, Wealth Alliance, Tech, Meta, Apple, Big Locations: New York, Big Tech
It’s also a sign of confidence from Fed officials that inflation has come under control just enough to comfortably dial back policy. Typically, in the lead-up to a Fed policy decision, Wall Street and economists are in alignment on what to expect. But investors’ wagers for a half-point cut ramped up on Monday; and as of Tuesday afternoon, federal funds futures contracts were pricing in a 63% chance of a jumbo rate cut, up from around 30% on Thursday, according to the CME Group. As inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, American employers pumped out jobs and the unemployment rate declined to half-century lows. The Fed eventually responded to the country’s inflation problem with its bitter medicine of high interest rates.
Persons: It’s, Christopher Waller, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Kaplan, Bill Dudley, , Powell, ” Gregory Daco, , ” Julia Hermann Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Street, CME, Fed, Democratic, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Former New York, Bloomberg, Dow, Labor, New York Life Investments, CNN
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