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But Russia's Accounts Chamber, which oversees budget execution, warned on Monday there were risks the Urals price would fall below $60 in 2024-2026. Russia's forecast sees economic growth of 2.3% in 2024, well above estimates of 1.1% from the International Monetary Fund and 0.5%-1.5% from the Bank of Russia. CHANGING TUNEAt Russia's flagship economic forum in St Petersburg in June, Siluanov said increasing expenditure was difficult, as budget spending had already increased by 1-1/2 times from 2019 to 2022. Now, even as the government outlines plans for spending to jump to 36.7 trillion roubles in 2024, he is more relaxed. Renaissance Capital's Donets and Melaschenko said Russia could create temporary taxes, permanently increase rates of VAT, or adjust Russia's budget rule to permit more spending of energy revenues.

Persons: Evgenia, Anton Tabakh, Vladimir Putin, Anton Siluanov, Denis Popov, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Sofya Donets, Andrei Melaschenko, Dmitry Polevoy, Siluanov, Melaschenko, Alexei Sazanov, Sazanov, Konstantin Sonin, It's, Sumanta Sen, Mark Trevelyan, Alexander Marrow, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Washington, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Russia, Capital, Reuters Graphics Russia, University of Chicago, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, West, St Petersburg

Current funding for most U.S. government programs except for the military and Social Security payments expires on Sept. 30. The government would continue to make payments on Treasury bonds and other forms of debt during a shutdown. A government shutdown would prevent the collection and release of key market data including gross domestic product, unemployment figures and inflation data, clouding the ability of central bankers to gauge the strength of the economy, Cantrill said. "The Fed – who has emphasized how data-dependent it currently is – would be flying blind" into the central bank's policy meeting in November, she said. Economists at Capital Economists, meanwhile, said in a note on Monday that the risk of a shutdown is rising but said they expect a quick resolution.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, PIMCO, Libby Cantrill, Goldman Sachs, Kevin McCarthy, Cantrill, There's, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Capitol, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Republicans, Social, Goldman, . House, Capital Economists, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, shutdowns, New York, London

☆ Analysis: Russia may hike taxes as military spending, oil price weigh on budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Darya Korsunskaya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The growing dependence of the budget on oil raises concerns," Alfa Bank said in a note that warned a decline in revenue from gas and oil product exports "looms on the horizon." Analysts say that as the government increased spending by more than a quarter in 2022, in part to finance its military in Ukraine, the oil price required to balance the budget jumped from $67 to $101 a barrel. "When there is a big gap between the actual price (of oil) and the balancing price, it cannot be sustainably covered by borrowing," said Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank. VAT rates, profit taxes and income tax would not be changed, Sazanov said, but other industries may face a higher tax bill. The measures are expected to net an additional 3.6 trillion roubles for the Russian budget over three years.

☆ Mexico inflation below forecasts in December, core inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Mexico's headline inflation ended 2022 slightly below analysts' expectations, while core inflation finally appeared to have peaked, data from the national statistics agency showed on Monday. Annual headline inflation in December reached 7.82%, up moderately from 7.80% in November, but still below the record 8.70% reached in August and September. (MXCCPI=ECI)Economists polled by Reuters had expected annual headline inflation to come in at 7.86% and core inflation at 8.36%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 0.65% in December. (MXCPIX=ECI)Meanwhile, monthly headline inflation was 0.38% in the period, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures.

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