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Search resuls for: "Campbell Harvey"


15 mentions found


☆ A recession indicator with a perfect record has been flashing red for 20 months. It may not be wrong yet.
  + stars: | 2024-06-10 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
A recession indicator with a flawless record has been flashing red for 20 months. The economist behind the inverted yield curve says it's too soon to declare it's wrong this time. AdvertisementA recession indicator with a perfect track record has been flashing red for 20 months now, but the economist who pioneered its use warned against dismissing it just yet. "I think it's way too early to declare a failure," Campbell Harvey told Fox Business about the inverted yield curve. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.
Persons: Campbell Harvey, —, Harvey Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Duke University, Business
☆ Many consumers are out of their savings right now, says Duke's Campbell Harvey
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMany consumers are out of their savings right now, says Duke's Campbell HarveyCampbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether recession is on the horizon, the state of consumer, and more.
Persons: Duke's Campbell Harvey Campbell Harvey Organizations: Duke University
☆ The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator says 3 factors will ensure a coming downturn isn't too painful
  + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The inverted yield curve means that a recession is still likely, the indicator's inventor wrote this week. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe inverted yield curve has been flashing red for 15 months, but don't think that ongoing economic strength makes it a false signal, Campbell Harvey wrote in a Research Affiliates note. "The yield curve indicator suggests growth will substantially slow in 2024. On the business side, past experience with the inverted yield curve has led entities to take preventive action when Treasury rates flip.
Persons: —, Campbell Harvey, Harvey Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Reserve, Fed
☆ The inventor of Wall Street's favorite recession indicator predicts a slowdown this year - and slams the Fed for making things worse
  + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
"The model is forecasting lower economic growth in 2024 and I believe that will be realized," Harvey said, predicting a slowdown this quarter that will continue into the summer. AdvertisementHarvey also called on the Fed to end its inflation fight, arguing price growth has already normalized based on real-time housing data. "What the Fed has done in this cycle has made things worse, so we will be very fortunate to get out of this with slow growth." That could slow economic growth in the short term but prevent a full-blown recession later, he said. On the other hand, he argued the US should aim to accelerate economic growth to 5% by capitalizing on innovations like artificial intelligence and decentralized finance.
Persons: Campbell Harvey, Julia Roche, Harvey, hasn't, it's Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Duke University, Fed
☆ A year ago most economists expected a recession. Now 91% say otherwise.
  + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe vast majority of economists see a recession as unlikely in the next year, according to the latest survey from the National Association of Business Economics. New results out Monday showed 91% now assign a probability of 50% or less for a slowdown in the next 12 months. AdvertisementOnly 9% of respondents reported a recession being more likely than not, down from 18% in the previous survey. Since 1968, the recession indicator has gone eight for eight in preceding a recession.
Persons: —, Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley, Campbell Harvey Organizations: Service, National Association of Business Economics, Business, The University of, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department
☆ The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024
  + stars: | 2024-01-20 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969. When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal. AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year. He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity. Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.
Persons: —, Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's Organizations: Service, Duke University, Federal Locations: Canadian
☆ Recession at this point 'is a self-inflicted wound', says Duke's Campbell Harvey
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession at this point 'is a self-inflicted wound', says Duke's Campbell HarveyCampbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the central bank has overshot and should have stopped raising rates in January, the state of the economy, Treasury yields, and more.
Persons: Duke's Campbell Harvey Campbell Harvey Organizations: Duke University
☆ There's a false Fed narrative that inflation is well above its comfort level: Duke's Campbell Harvey
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a false Fed narrative that inflation is well above its comfort level: Duke's Campbell HarveyCampbell Harvey, Duke University professor of finance, joins 'Squawk box' to discuss the inverted yield curve, why he believes investors are misreading the indicator when predicting a looming recession, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.
Persons: Duke's Campbell Harvey Campbell Harvey Organizations: Duke University
☆ The bond market's notorious indicator is correctly signaling a coming recession, and the Fed has made a major mistake, the economist who coined the inverted yield curve says
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
The gauge has never flashed a false positive - and it's likely saying the Fed made a big mistake, Harvey said. The curve officially inverted on October 26 last year, Fed data shows, meaning the recession signal is just a few days shy of the 11-month milestone. So it's way too early to say this is a false signal. Maybe it does turn out to be a false signal, but you can't say it's a false signal when you're not even at the average," Harvey said. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points on Thursday to 4.478%, the highest level since 2007.
Persons: Campbell Harvey, Duke, Harvey, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal, Duke University, CNBC, , New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, ,
☆ The main driver of inflation is shelter, says Duke University professor Campbell Harvey
  + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe main driver of inflation is shelter, says Duke University professor Campbell HarveyCam Harvey, professor of finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, the leading indicators of inflation, and more.
Persons: Campbell Harvey Cam Harvey Organizations: Duke University, Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business
☆ The economist who discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator now says his model will prove correct again as the Fed continues to hike rates — and that a downturn will strike anytime
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Harvey discovered the inverted yield curve as a recession indicator. Back in December, Cam Harvey made an eyebrow-raising call: the inverted yield curve, the famous recession indicator he discovered in the 1980s, would produce its first false reading since the 1960s. Harvey's yield curve looks at yields on three-month bills and 10-year notes; the latter are normally higher. Another reason Harvey's view has dimmed is that short-term inflation expectations have come down, meaning the real-yield curve (which is adjusted for inflation expectations) has now inverted. In December, Harvey said that much higher short-term inflation expectations relative to long-term expectations meant that real yields weren't inverted.
☆ Analysis: AMC sets unusual shareholder vote for meme stock sale approval
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Anirban Sen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
loadingNow, AMC is asking shareholders for authorization to further increase its common stock count tenfold. Holders of the preferred stock will be allowed to vote on the matter alongside holders of common stock. "This increases the odds of (the new common stock authorization) passing this time," said Jacob Thomas, a professor of accounting and finance at Yale School of Management. "Given that meme stock speculators can drive prices far from fundamentals, it makes sense for a company like AMC to issue stock when management believes its own stock is overvalued," Harvey said. AMC said in the Jan. 26 filing that it is proposing the conversion of preferred stock to common stock to eliminate the trading discount.
☆ We're entering a far more complicated phase of an economic cycle, says Barclays' Meghan Graper
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're entering a far more complicated phase of an economic cycle, says Barclays' Meghan GraperMeghan Graper, global co-head of the investment grade syndicate at Barclays, and Campbell Harvey, Campbell Harvey, Fuqua School of Business finance professor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss Tuesday's Employment Cost Index data, whether the Federal Reserve should 'stand down' and more.
☆ Economist Campbell Harvey: Inflation data suggests that we have 'peaked'
  + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist Campbell Harvey: Inflation data suggests that we have 'peaked'Campbell Harvey, Fuqua School of Business finance professor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Harvey's predictions for a recession this year, how Harvey's recession model has fared in the past and more.
☆ More Crypto Exchanges Verify Reserves, But Questions About Assets Remain
  + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +7 min
Most crypto exchanges are privately held, meaning they don’t have to file financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission or get them audited. He added that customers of crypto exchanges should “look for as rigorous of that as you can look for regulatory reporting.”FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried sat down with The Wall Street Journal to discuss what happened to the billions of dollars deposited by the exchange’s customers. Photo: Kenny Wassus/The Wall Street JournalSuch a third-party verification represents a step toward more transparency around crypto exchanges, but there are significant shortcomings, some academics said. Coinbase Global Inc. last month reported $95.11 billion in both customer crypto assets and liabilities for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from $88.45 billion the previous quarter, filings show. Still, the PCAOB encourages investors to review reports on the work those companies’ auditors have done, Chair Erica Williams said at a conference Tuesday.
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