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☆ UBS trader turns bearish for next two months, worried about a 'large unwind'
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I am tactically bearish for the next 2 months," wrote Rebecca Cheong, head of Americas equity derivatives strategy for UBS, in a note. The S & P 500 rapidly rebounded, though, making back most of the losses and approaching a new high once again. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD And September has gotten off to a sour start with the S & P 500 down four of the first five trading days. Other reasons that make the trader bearish: UBS clients have sold stocks 11 of the last 12 days. Cheong suggested hedges that would pay off if the S & P 500 is down 10% in one month and 15% in two months.

Persons: Rebecca Cheong, Cheong Organizations: UBS, Nvidia, Global, Tech, Federal, U.S

☆ Here are 5 key things we're watching closely in the stock market this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-13 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Three of our Club rate plays — solar panel company Nextracker , Stanley Black & Decker , and Ford — were our top-performing stocks for the week. Friday also ushered in the start of the second quarter earnings season. Earnings Club name Morgan Stanley reports second-quarter earnings before Tuesday's opening bell. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Nextracker, Stanley Black, Decker, Ford —, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Abbott, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Johnson, Ally, Kinder Morgan, Horton, Huntington, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Ted Pick, Adam Galici Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, PPI, Abbott Laboratories, Libre Rio, Bank of America, PNC Financial, PNC, Pinnacle Financial, Housing, U.S . Bancorp, Northern Trust Corporation, Citizens, United Airlines, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, Green Realty, Taiwan Semiconductor, Nokia, Infosys Technologies, McLennan Companies, T Bank Corp, Forestar, Novartis, Textron, Netflix, PPG Industries, AAR, American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Halliburton, HAL, Comerica, CMA, Financial, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Wells, BlackRock, BLK, U.S, Marsh, Davos, Switzerland

☆ A Goldman Sachs research director explains how he created the firm's best-of-the-best stock-pick list — and makes the case for 22 top companies with up to 59% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewGoldman Sachs analysts kicked off the new month and quarter by revealing their favorite investing ideas. AdvertisementHow to successfully select stocksThe directors' cut list consists of 20 to 25 stocks beloved by Goldman's research analysts. But a promising outlook alone isn't enough to make the directors' cut list. Kron and company also look for stocks that Goldman Sachs analysts are more bullish about than their peers are. AdvertisementBelow are the 22 companies on the "directors' cut" version of Goldman Sachs' US conviction stock list.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, Steven Kron, Kron, Chris Hussey, John Marshall, Stocks Organizations: Service, Business, Goldman, Citigroup, Royal Caribbean Cruises, TPG, Blue Owl, TE, Chevron

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Tesla, Delta, Skechers, Apple, Disney, Micron, Citi, Amazon & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Morgan Stanley initiates Compass Pathways at overweight Morgan Stanley said in its initiation of Compass that it's bullish on shares of the mental health biopharma company. Morgan Stanley reiterates Taiwan Semiconductor as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by its overweight rating on shares of TSM. Morgan Stanley reiterates Delta as a top pick Morgan Stanley said Delta's push into "premium" will reward investors. Bank of America reiterates Micron as buy Bank of America said it sees further share gains for Micron. Morgan Stanley reiterates Planet Fitness as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's standing by its overweight rating on the fitness company.

Persons: Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, it's, it's bullish, Hunt, Werner, Robinson, Morgan Stanley, Delta, Wells, Evercore, Bill, Tesla, Oppenheimer, Sweetgreen, Baird downgrades, Baird, Tommy Bahama Organizations: Microsoft, Barclays, Barclays downgrades J.B, J.B, C.H, Taiwan Semiconductor, DAL, " Bank of America, Nvidia, Broadcom, Bank of America, Micron, Devon Energy, Bloom Energy, Energy, Disney, underperform Bank of America, Baird downgrades Fifth, Bancorp, Royal Caribbean, Citi, Citigroup Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, TPG Inc, TPG, TE Connectivity, Chevron Corp, Citi downgrades Oxford Industries Locations: TSM, Wells Fargo, Devon, F1Q, Cincinnati, Royal, Oxford

☆ February was a banner month for some of the industry's biggest trend-following funds
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Bradley Saacks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

These trend-following funds use futures contracts to track market momentum. The strategy type on average lost money in 2023, according to BarclayHedge. The trend-following strategy subset, which uses futures contracts to ride market momentum, lost money on average in 2023, according to BarclayHedge, but had a big month in February. The average CTA made 1.9% last month, the industry data provider notes, but several big-name managers blew that figure out of the water. AQR, run by billionaire Cliff Asness, made 7.9% in its $1.5 billion Managed Futures strategy, according to the firm's website.

Persons: Cliff Asness Organizations: CTA, Man, Business Locations: AQR, Connecticut

☆ Morning Bid: Gold makes the running as oil fails to fire
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oil failed to sustain an early rally that followed news of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Notably, oil prices lost early gains and Brent eased around 57 cents to $78.31 a barrel amid doubts that OPEC+ would be able to maintain planned output cuts, particularly by some African countries. At the same time, U.S. oil output is at record levels above 13 million barrels a day and rig counts are still rising. A commodity faring better is gold, which surged suddenly this morning to top $2,111 an ounce for the first time before paring the gains to $2,086. Yields on U.S. two-year notes rose almost 4 bps, but that follows a drop of 40 bps last week.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Wayne Cole, Treasuries, Yemen's, Brent, Bundesbank, Christine Lagarde, Bonds, Goldman Sachs, Anna Breman, Riksbank, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Bulls, ECB, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, Wayne, Red, U.S, Saudi Arabia

☆ Morning Bid: Oil slide, Walmart stoke disinflation speculation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oil, miniatures of oil barrels and U.S. dollar banknote are seen in this illustration taken, June 6, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Asia has been in a contemplative mood so far on Friday after another week of wild swings in bonds, equities and commodities. The market now implies 98 basis points of cuts next year, compared with 73 basis points a week ago. U.S. data on housing starts for OctBy Wayne Cole; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Wayne Cole, Brent, Christine Lagarde, De Cos, BoE's Greene, Ramsden, Barr, Daly, Collins, Muralikumar Organizations: REUTERS, Walmart, Federal Reserve, Westpac, EU, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, Ukraine, Goolsbee .

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Amazon, Oracle, Eli Lilly, Airbnb, Meta, Southwest & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Jefferies initiates PepsiCo as buy Jefferies called PepsiCo a defensive stock. " Jefferies initiates Procter & Gamble as buy Jefferies said in its initiation of the stock that it's a top and bottom line growth leader. Jefferies initiates Colgate-Palmolive as buy Jefferies said it sees a "reinvigorated" brand lineup for Colgate. Citi reiterates Amazon and Meta as buy Citi said it's bullish on the partnership between Amazon and Meta. Citi reiterates Eli Lilly as buy Citi said it's standing by its buy rating on the stock.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Stifel, CrowdStrike, KBW, it's, Bernstein, buybacks, Airbnb, BTIG, Raymond James, Natera, Hewlett Packard, Jefferies, Colgate, Morgan Stanley, Edward Jones, Olin, it's bullish, Truist, Citi, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Melius Organizations: UBS, Barclays, Apple, Piper, Capital Holdings, Guardant, Citi, Hewlett, PepsiCo, Pepsi, Procter, Gamble, G, Constellation Brands, Constellation, Colgate, Palmolive, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Oracle, North America, Amazon, Social Commerce, ~$

☆ Macro hedge funds turn bearish on equities - Barclays
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

A trader works at his post on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. The bank's U.S. equity strategy team wrote that global macro hedge funds are likely seeing equities repricing lower as the 10-year Treasury yields has spiked to around 5%. CTAs, which were already bearish on equities, have added to their positions. "CTAs have built sizeable shorts in global equities, and have room to add further," Barclays said, adding the trend-following investors have become short U.S. technology stocks. The analysts noted CTAs are bearish on most assets, including U.S. Treasuries, JGBs and Bunds, but they are long oil.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Carolina Mandl, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Barclays, Carolina, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York

☆ A key corner of Wall Street is making its most bearish bet against stocks ever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street traders have taken on the biggest short position in US stocks on record. The extreme short positioning could ultimately fuel buying pressure for stocks if the bet is unwound. AdvertisementAdvertisementProfessional traders in one corner of Wall Street have taken on their biggest bet ever against US stocks, according to data from Goldman Sachs. The bank said in a Monday note that trend-following traders on Wall Street, also known as commodity trading advisers (CTAs), are short a record $47 billion of US stocks. This wouldn't be the first time the stock market has bottomed right around the same time trend-following CTAs were net bearish on stocks.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Cullen Morgan, Stephen Suttmeier, CTAs, Morgan Organizations: Service, Bank of America Locations: Wall, COVID

☆ Analysis: Trend hedge funds come out winners in bond market rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet in one corner of the hedge fund world, there's a sigh of relief. So-called trend following and systematic hedge funds have long positioned for a fall in government bond prices given higher-for-longer inflation. AlphaSimplex is a $7.9 billion trend following hedge fund. While many trend funds, also known as "managed futures" funds, use price data, their trading models might also interpret macro economic factors playing out in markets. Some trend funds shrank their fixed income holdings in response to the March turmoil.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Kathryn Kaminski, Morningstar, Razvan Remsing, Yao Hua Ooi, Laurent Le Saint, Metori, Aspect's, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Generale, Reuters, Silicon Valley Bank, Treasury, Virtus, AQR Capital Management, Capital Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, United States, Germany, Boston, Silicon, Europe, China, Paris, EU, Japan

☆ Traders dumped a record $40 billion of stock futures in past week, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Bearish views on the stock market culminated in the sale of an estimated record of $40 billion of S & P 500 stock index futures over the past five sessions, but that selling pressure is about to ease, according to a note from the Goldman Sachs trading desk. Hedge funds that use a managed futures strategy (Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs) recently unwound positions in S & P 500 futures at the greatest speed and magnitude "on record," Goldman said. With most of those positions now squared away, however, Goldman claims "we are closer to the end of this sell pressure than not." Goldman said lower risk, lowest cost trades are available in one-month call options on the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust , Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund , Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund and SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust . Greater returns might come from stocks that Goldman added to its "conviction list" Monday, such as Nvidia , Cintas and Quanterix Corp. (Goldman removed Salesforce and Johnson Controls from the "conviction list" this week.)

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Salesforce, Michael Bloom Organizations: Trading Advisors, Dow Jones, ETF Trust, Health, Fund, Consumer, Trust, Nvidia, Quanterix Corp, Johnson

☆ Hedge funds using computers to sell up to $30 billion of stocks soon - UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A logo of Swiss bank UBS is seen in Zurich, Switzerland March 29, 2023. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Hedge funds using computers to trade equities are expecting to start selling to the tune of $20 billion to $30 billion in the next two weeks given retreating stock markets, a UBS (UBSG.S) note seen by Reuters shows. Hedge funds using algorithms to follow market trends have turned neutral from bullish on stocks, the UBS note said. This will be the first time these hedge funds will be net short equity markets since November 2022, the bank said. The size of the U.S. stock market is estimated to be $46.2 trillion, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, CTAs, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: Swiss, UBS, REUTERS, Reuters, Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Currency, Bank for International, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, U.S

☆ Despite all the gloom, we're buyers going into next week. These 3 things are on our radar
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It was another downer of a week on Wall Street with all three major averages posting steep losses despite a bounce back on Friday. The S & P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq fell 2.3% and 2.9% this week, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5%. Federal Reserve: The central bank signaled this week that it was planning to keep rates higher for longer to beat down inflation. ET: Personal consumption expenditure Before the bell: Carnival (CCL) (See here for a full list of the stocks Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: downer, Jim Cramer, carmakers, hasn't, Jim, " Cramer, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Ferguson, SYNNEX, HB Fuller, Jabil, Cramer's, Emily Elconin Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Republican, Democratic, UAW, Big, United Auto Workers union, General Motors, Club, Ford, Fed, Stanley, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Costco, Citi, Meta, Industries, Cintas, Natural Foods, Micron Tech, Concentrix Corp, Worthington, Gross, Accenture, BlackBerry, Vail Resorts, MTN, CNBC, United Auto Workers, Stellantis NV, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: SWK, Stellantis NV Toledo, Toldeo , Ohio

☆ U.S. stock prices near level for 'mechanical selling' - Nomura's McElligott
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Options floor brokers work on the floor of the NYSE American, formerly known as the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), at New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 11, 2023. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 (.SPX) dropped to 4,401.38, near a a four-week low, putting the index on the verge of setting off a deluge of "mechanical selling", or stock selling by options dealers and certain trend-following investors, including commodity trading advisors (CTAs), Nomura’s McElligott said. The selloff also pushed the Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) - an options-based gauge of expected stock market gyrations - to its highest in nearly four weeks. A drop below the 4,409 level for the S&P 500 triggers selling by CTAs with an estimated $12.3 billion of stock futures up for sale in aggregate, McElligott estimates. If investors react to the latest drop in the market by selling volatility or by taking profits on existing hedges it could help stifle the selling pressure on the market, he said.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Nomura’s McElligott, McElligott, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: NYSE, American Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Thomson, & $ Locations: New York City, U.S, Charlie McElligott .

☆ Oil hedge funds place their bets on heat-fueled hurricane season
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Gasoline prices usually rise ahead of the U.S. summer driving season. Money managers in the week to Aug. 1 boosted their net long holdings of NYMEX RBOB gasoline futures to the highest since late February 2022. HEDGE FUND-FUELED TURNAROUNDGasoline futures have risen around 14% this year, compared with a roughly 2% rise for U.S. crude futures . To guarantee a profit, they need the rise in gasoline prices to be sustained until hurricane activity is confirmed. But for gasoline to continue its rise against the price of crude oil, there needs to be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, they said.

Persons: Liz Hampton, Tom Kloza, Vincent Elbhar, Eliot Geller, Brent Belote, Cayler, Belote, Arion, Nell Mackenzie, Laura Sanicola, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Liz Hampton LONDON, Gulf Coasts, Silicon Valley, Societe Generale, Reuters, Money, Futures Trading Commission, Reuters Graphics, El, Oil Price Information Service, CTA, Investment, Commodity, Fund, Aspect, CoreCommodity Management, CoreCommodity, Barclays, JP, Cayler, Thomson Locations: Loco Hills, New Mexico, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Gulf of Mexico, United States, Gulf, Silicon, Gulf Coast, Mexico, Europe, Hurricanes, Washington

☆ 3 things to pay attention to in the markets this coming week
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The consumer price index (CPI) report — which calculates the average change over time in prices that shoppers pay for goods and services — drops Wednesday. On Thursday, the producer price index (PPI) is out and will show the change in selling prices received by producers of goods and services. ET: Consumer Price Index After the bell: MillerKnoll (MLKN) Thursday, July 13 8:30 a.m. The consumer price index (CPI) report — which calculates the average change over time in prices that shoppers pay for goods and services — drops Wednesday. ET: Consumer Price IndexAfter the bell: MillerKnoll (MLKN) Thursday, July 13 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Stocks, Wells Fargo, We'll, Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Helen of Troy, HELE, Wells, ERIC, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Delta, DAL, PepsiCo, Conagra Brands, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Ericsson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Anadolu Agency, Getty Locations: China, Wells, Wells Fargo, Red, Ras Behar, Egypt

☆ Wall Street sees further upside for Japan stocks as they notch a fresh three-decade high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The World's busiest pedestrian crossing © Marco Bottigelli | Moment | Getty ImagesWith Japanese stocks suddenly back en vogue with global investors, analysts at top Wall Street investment banks are predicting more upside for the country's benchmark indexes. Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a Monday research note that foreign investors' positioning on stocks in Japan is still underweight. "Whereas we believe positioning is stretched among short-term investors such as CTAs (Commodities Trading Advisors), positioning is still light among foreign long-term investors," strategists Kazunori Tatebe and Bruce Kirk said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconThey added that they see Japan stocks benefiting from "structural changes" in the economy. "If progress is made in accordance with investor expectations, Japanese stocks could see a prolonged advance over the medium term, and we continue to see risk to the upside for Japanese stocks," they added.

☆ Point72 and Citadel outpaced rival hedge funds in April. Here's how Millennium, D.E. Shaw, and other multi-strats are faring this year.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Point72 led multi-strategy hedge funds in April with a gain of 1.58%. Citadel was up 1.11% and leads peers year-to-date with a gain of 5.37%. Point72 had the best month among multi-strategy hedge funds, up 1.58% in April and 4.63% for the year. Citadel continues its hot streak with a 1.11% return in April and leads among peers year-to-date, up 5.37%. Fund April performance Year-to-date performance Point72 1.58% 4.63% Citadel 1.11% 5.37% D. E. Shaw (as of 4/21) 0.60% 1.90% Balyasny 0.82% 1.32% ExodusPoint (0.10) 0.80% Millennium Flat 0.50% Schonfeld 0.30% 0.20%April saw a reversal of sorts among hedge fund strategies.

☆ Reader mailbag: From M&A and MBAs to Elon Musk and bitcoin, all your questions answered
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It's easier to leverage misinformation for personal gain within the world of finance than perhaps any other industry. I'm not the type to suggest the only real information you can get on the markets is from established news outlets. Do you think the legacy media is fearful of Elon Musk's new Twitter? I just think the discourse on Twitter is very different from what you'd find on a media website. My position on bitcoin, and the wider digital-currency ecosystem, is that it's too often a solution looking for a problem.

Firms that concentrate on stocks, however, rode a late month market rally to small gains, according to investors and industry data. Many hedge funds are still compiling March and first quarter numbers, but preliminary reports from research firm Hedge Fund Research showed the average hedge fund was off 1% last month and ended the quarter flat. The macro hedge fund is down nearly 9.5% year-to-date through March, the source added. The Balyasny Atlas Enhanced fund gained 0.8% in March and is up 1% for the year. A Goldman Sachs report, based on returns posted by the bank's prime brokerage's clients, showed fundamental long/short funds gained 1.04% in March.

Macro and trend-following hedge funds dropped 3.2% this month through March 29, while algorithmic commodity trading advisor funds (CTAs) dove 6.8%. Hedge fund strategies based around macroeconomic ideas like those run by Rokos, DG Parters and EDL Capital fund posted negative performances in March, sources and bank data said. Trend-following hedge funds, which trade on systematically programmed ideas, also posted big losses. The bank decided not to change clients' borrowing limits, but it has increased diligence oversight on the hedge fund exposure, including new clients, the broker said. Trend-following funds tend to bail quickly on trades that stop working, said a pension fund director who invests in hedge funds.

☆ The banking crisis is doing Fed's work and creating a window for stocks to rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +19 min

Work from home has in part jacked up food prices, and the increase is about 14% above just last year. The only bank that looks like Silicon Valley Bank is First Republic Bank (FRC) because it, too, has suffered huge deposit withdrawals. Nike (NKE)said China orders were good, so did Club stock Starbucks (SBUX). As counterintuitive as it is, the banking row will give the 4.8% fed funds rate a chance to cool consumer spending. This gives stocks a window to advance until we begin earnings season with what will no doubt be a cautious banking sector.

☆ The Street awaits key inflation report next week as banking worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The personal spending and income report, out this coming Friday, has the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation: the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index. In comparison, the consumer price index (CPI), released this past week, only tracks price changes over time. It was a positive week for the major averages, despite some midweek volatility driven by comments from Treasury officials. The PCE price index and other inflation reports face heightened scrutiny in the coming months as the market is becoming more at odds with the Fed's base case. ET: Gross Domestic Product; Price Index Friday, March 31 Before the bell: 8:30 a.m.

Commodity trading advisers (CTAs) - funds that try to profit by buying or selling when there is a clear direction in markets - slumped 4.3% in the three days to Monday, according to analysis from UBS. "We have seen certainly on (last) Friday and Monday capitulation trades from hedge funds, so all hedge funds have been short duration positioned and we have heard a lot of desks needed to shut down their risk," said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management. Hedge funds felt this "brutally" in Japanese markets, Hense said, where positioning from hedge funds and CTAs had been particularly "one sided" in anticipation of an end to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy. British macro hedge fund manager Crispin Odey's main fund posted a minus 4.7% February performance and is down 3% so far this year, said a note from his hedge fund to clients. Very few macro economic funds tracked by bank research seen by Reuters have reported March numbers.

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