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China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
  + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."
Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco
China's stimulus package has boosted market sentiment and pushed the Chinese yuan to a 16-month high. But a strong yuan could hurt exports, a key pillar of China's economy, amid weak domestic demand. AdvertisementChina's massive stimulus package for its battered economy has boosted market sentiment and injected confidence into the Chinese yuan. This means $1 could buy fewer Chinese yuan. A strong yuan is bad for exportsEven though a strong yuan signals confidence in China's economy, analysts aren't sure the gains will hold.
Persons: , Pan Gongsheng, Vishnu, Varathan, Larry Hu, Hu, aren't, Pan, Macquarie's Hu Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, US Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Lombard, Bloomberg Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Beijing, Swiss, China's
Australian dollars are seen in an illustration photo February 8, 2018. The two Antipodean currencies, often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan, were flat after slumping in the previous session in the wake of the news. The Australian dollar was trading at $0.6643 early on Tuesday and the New Zealand dollar dipped 0.01% to $0.5979. In the broader market, currency moves were subdued as traders looked to central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan next week. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.7% to $67,665, retreating from an over one-month top hit in the previous session.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, China's, Rodrigo Catril, Joe Biden's, NAB's, bitcoin, Rae Wee, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, New, New Zealand, National Australia Bank, NAB, Trump, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, New Zealand, China, U.S, Japan
Wisesoft stock surged 10% after former President Trump survived an assassination attempt. Wisesoft, known as a meme stock in China, often sees price jumps linked to Trump events. Chinese retail investors trade Wisesoft shares as a joke, leveraging its Trump-related name. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementA Chinese tech firm with a name that sounds like "Trump's Big Win" enjoyed a surge in its stock price on Monday after former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
Persons: Trump, , Donald Trump, Chuanda Zhisheng Organizations: Trump, Service, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Business Locations: China, Pennsylvania
Under Armour — The sportswear maker's Class A shares slumped 11% and its Class C stock fell 9% after it issued lower-than-expected full-year earnings guidance. Under Armour now expects earnings in the range of 18 cents to 21 cents while analysts polled by FactSet had forecast 59 cents. Cisco Systems also hiked its 2024 revenue guidance, saying it now expects revenue of $53.7 billion at the midpoint of a range. Meme stocks — Shares of AMC and GameStop extended losses following the revival of the meme stock movement on Monday and Tuesday. Baidu reported CNY 31.51 billion ($4.7 billion) of revenue, topping the CNY 31.34 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount.
Persons: Armour, FactSet, Goose, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Chubb, Deere, GoodRX, Raymond James, John Ransom, Coupang, Tesla, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Hakyung Kim, Sarah Min, Samantha Subin, Jesse Pound Organizations: Walmart, Wall, LSEG, Revenue, , Berkshire, Cisco Systems, AMC, GameStop, Deere, Company, Baidu, UBS, ISI, European Union, Facebook Locations: Krakow, Poland, The Seattle
The National Bureau of Statistics is due to release data on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment for April on Friday. Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present. The firm expects this week's economic data releases to show a "softening in economic momentum," affirming its forecasts for the central bank to cut rates by the end of June. "Some of the weakness speaks to genuine sluggish demand in China at present," said Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs' China chief economist, in a note Sunday. Businesses' loan demand fallsNew bank loans to businesses and government organizations dropped sharply in April from March, as did new loans to households, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.
Persons: Hui Shan Goldman Sachs, Louise Loo, Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, Goldman, RRR, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Finance, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Information, Clocktower, CNBC Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, , Beijing, People's Bank of China
Gold retreats as dampened Fed rate cut hopes dent appeal
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices slipped on Monday as hopes for early interest rate cuts this year dampened, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve policy meeting and U.S. non-farm payrolls data due this week for further clarity on monetary policy. "Short term, gold is facing some challenges given the likely delayed timeline for rate cuts. The Federal Reserve's policy meeting from April 30-May 1 and the non-farm payrolls data due on Friday are key for markets this week. The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at this meeting.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Jerome Powell, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, KCM Trade, Investors, People's Bank of, Citi Locations: Mendrisio, Switzerland, People's Bank of China
The onshore CNY is currently trading at 7.24 per U.S. dollar. The South Korean won recently slipped to an 18-month low of 1,389.5 against the dollar. The Bank of Korea chief called the won volatility "excessive" and said the central bank would intervene if needed. Taiwan dollarBofA also remains negative on the Taiwan dollar given strong equity outflows and life insurance companies' additional unwinding of non-deliverable forward hedges. The Taiwan dollar is currently trading at 32.6 per U.S. dollar.
Persons: SeongJoon Cho Organizations: Korean, Woori, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, South Korean, Fed, Bank of Korea, U.S ., Taiwan Locations: Seoul, South Korea
Dollar steady as PCE data sets up June rate cut bets; yen in focus
  + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as data showing easing U.S. prices bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June, while the yen loitered near 152 per dollar keeping traders on edge on the threat of intervention. The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as data showing easing U.S. prices bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June, while the yen loitered near 152 per dollar keeping traders on edge on the threat of intervention. The report also showed consumer spending rising by the most in just over a year last month, underscoring the economy's resilience. The yen touched a 34-year low against the dollar of 151.975 on Wednesday and was last at 151.315 per dollar, a shade stronger, on Monday. In other currencies, the Australian dollar rose 0.21% to $0.654, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.20% higher at $0.599.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Sterling, Shunichi Suzuki, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Traders, Citi, Japan, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency, New Zealand Locations: Japan
Brent Lewin | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later this year and, while that may not be good news for the dollar , some Asian currencies stand to benefit. Higher interest rates boost a country's currency, attracting foreign investment and increasing demand for the country's currency. A weak U.S. dollar is generally positive for emerging markets, which is often the case when the Fed cuts interest rates outside of an economic crisis. Experts told CNBC currencies such as the Chinese yuan , the Korean won and the Indian rupee stand to benefit from the Fed loosening monetary policy. So those are also positive for the Indian currency," said Anindya Banerjee, vice president of currency and derivatives research at Kotak Securities.
Persons: Mahatma Gandhi, Brent Lewin, Yuan, Arun Bharath, Bharath, Simon Harvey ​, , Anindya Banerjee, Banerjee, South Korea's, Monex's Harvey Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal, CNBC, Korean, Bel Air Investment Advisors, People's Bank of, FX, U.S, Kotak Securities, Bank of, Korea's, South Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, China, People's Bank of China, U.S, Bank of India, India, Europe, America
Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China's major state-owned banks were seen exchanging yuan for U.S. dollars in the onshore swap market and selling those dollars in spot currency markets this week, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Some market participants said state banks might be trying to speed the yuan's gains and spur exporters to convert more of their FX receipts into yuan. The selling of dollars by state banks caused the onshore spot yuan to briefly touch 7.1296 per dollar, firmer than its daily official guidance for the first time in four months. To me, it looks like they are doing preparatory work ahead of a policy rate cut," said Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Kiyong Seong, Zhi Xiaojia, Zhi, Simon Cameron, Moore, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Federal, People's Bank of China, Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, United States
Passersby wait at a crossing in front of an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage, in Tokyo, Japan, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley, U.S. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is now less than 2% away from its highest level this year that was reached in July. There are few potential U.S. market moving events this week, besides Tuesday's day early release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Androniki, Alden Bentley, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Breaking, Finance, Markets, Reuters, Microsoft, Treasury, Fed, Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia, Kuaishou Technology, Tongcheng Travel, Alden Bentley Our, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Alden, U.S, Asia
Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies. The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%. Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the UK. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Anil D'Silva Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Broker Research, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHong Kong's payment system Octopus to allow e-CNY transactions: CEOOctopus' CEO Tim Ying says e-CNY adoption in its e-payment system will be the first retail cross-border use of the central bank digital currency.
Persons: Tim Ying Organizations: Hong
China's official app for digital yuan is seen on a mobile phone next to 100-yuan banknotes in this illustration picture taken October 16, 2020. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsSHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Chinese foreign exchange regulator official said "programmable features" of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could help enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy tools, state media reported on Friday. China is among a host of countries developing their own CBDCs - digital tokens issued by central banks - although adoption is still in its early stages. Lu said he expected the People's Bank of China (PBOC) could explore the features to adjust rates of CBDC, which could also be used manage the macro economy. Transactions using China's CBDC, the e-CNY, hit 1.8 trillion yuan ($249.33 billion) at end-June.
Persons: Florence Lo, Lu Lei, Lu, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Shanghai Securities News, People's Bank of China, Bank of International, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: China
Dollar firm as markets eye China data
  + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The dollar was on the front foot in Asia on Friday, retaining overnight gains against peers after strong U.S. economic data and an ECB rate hike, with traders' attention warily turning to a data deluge from China. U.S. retail sales received a boost from higher gasoline prices, increasing 0.6% in August versus an estimated 0.2% rise, while market participants reacted to the European Central Bank's 25-basis point hike. "The data today will be super important," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Bank of Australia. The offshore yuan inched further down against the dollar to 7.2918 ahead of the data. "In that sense it means that any disappointment coming out of the data today, we'll likely see the CNY under pressure," with risks to the Aussie and the Kiwi as well, he said.
Persons: Rodrigo Catril, we'll Organizations: Central, U.S, Mizuho Bank, National Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China's, Kiwi Locations: Asia, China . U.S, Thursday's, China
Chinese stock markets have failed to perform in 2023. All three major indexes have lost money for investors over the past week, month, three months, six months, and year. As a result, shorting the Chinese currency has been one of the most profitable investments this year, according to analysis by CNBC Pro of FactSet's ETF performance data. CNBC Pro screened for global China-focused ETFs that have posted positive returns this year to date. A weighted average analysts' price target for companies in the ETF points toward a further 22.4% upside over the next 12 months, according to FactSet data.
Persons: Thierry Wizman, Goldman Sachs, Brent Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Shanghai, Index, U.S, CNBC Pro, Singapore ., London Stock Exchange, U.S ., Macquarie, People's Bank of, China Energy, New York Stock Exchange, bbl, Goldman, Dragon, China Communication Services Locations: Shenzhen, China, New York, London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Singapore, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, Dragon China, U.S
The dollar was headed for its longest weekly winning streak in nine years on Friday, bolstered by a resilient run of U.S. economic data that has also put the end of the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle into question. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against its major peers, steadied at 105.02 in early trade, not far from the previous session's six-month high of 105.15. Sterling similarly languished near Thursday's three-month low and last bought $1.2484, set to clock a weekly loss of more than 0.8%. It is on track for a weekly loss of nearly 1% against the dollar, its worst week in about a month. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, was last 0.07% higher at $0.6381, but eyed a weekly loss of more than 1%.
Persons: Ray Attrill, Sterling, Alvin Tan Organizations: U.S, National Australia Bank . Data, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, New Zealand, of Japan's Locations: Asia, U.S, Germany, Europe's, Europe, Thursday's, United States
China's share of global payment transactions on the SWIFT system grew to 3% in July. But that hasn't come at the expense of the dollar, which had a record high 46.5% share on SWIFT. A greater role of BRICS and other emerging markets in global trade may create more natural demand for alternatives to USD, but this has not happened so far. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor its part, the dollar's share of SWIFT transactions is holding relatively steady, accounting for 46.5% in July and 42% in the first half of 2023. As an example, China has been steadily building an alternative to the Western-dominated SWIFT system, with the Cross-border International Payments System, or CIPS.
Persons: BRICS, China's Organizations: ING, SWIFT, Service, FX, dollarization Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. "As a result, Chinese economic weakness and falling prices (especially Chinese producer prices) are likely to spill over into global markets — near-term good news for the Western central banks' fight against elevated inflation." "China's disappointing rebound is now feeding negatively into global sentiment and growth. Beyond the trade-related spillovers, a common global disinflationary pressure comes from commodity prices, where as a huge importer of commodities, Chinese domestic demand remains a key factor. "Weak Chinese domestic investment and broad-based excess capacity in manufacturing, as well as weak sales of new homes and land, are likely to continue to depress global commodity demand," Wilding and Liao said.
Persons: Zhong Zhi, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Carol Liao, Montgomery Koning, Liao, TS Lombard's Montgomery Koning Organizations: Getty, National Bureau, Statistics, Evergrande, TS Lombard, Lombard, U.S, Census, TS Lombard's Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, U.S, Beijing, West, Germany
A view of logo of New Development Bank (NDB) at its headquarters in Shanghai, China July 10, 2023. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsJOHANNESBURG, Aug 21 (Reuters) - The development bank founded by the so-called BRICS countries is planning to issue its first Indian rupee bond by October, its chief operating officer said on Monday, as the lender comes under pressure to raise and lend more in local currencies. "We're going to tap (the) Indian market - rupees - maybe by October in India," Kazbekov said. "Now we start thinking seriously... to use one member country's currency to finance projects with that currency in another member. Kazbekov declined to give a target size for the Indian rupee bond program, which Reuters had previously reported was in the process of being set up.
Persons: Aly, Vladimir Kazbekov, Kazbekov, Leslie Maasdorp, Rachel Savage, Hugh Lawson Organizations: New Development Bank, REUTERS, Rights, United, Russia, ., Reuters, South, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Rights JOHANNESBURG, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Johannesburg, India, CNY
The yuan midpoint is a reference point for trading, and caps the range between +2% and -2%. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconFriday's move comes after the onshore yuan fell to a 16-year low against the greenback on Wednesday, trading at 7.2981. The onshore yuan strengthened 0.1% against the greenback at 7.2836 on Friday, and the offshore yuan weakened marginally to 7.3057. The onshore yuan is traded on the mainland and referred to as the CNY, while the offshore yuan — traded in markets like Hong Kong and Singapore — is referred to as the CNH. It vowed to "maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot."
Persons: Vishnu Varathan Organizations: Nurphoto, People's Bank of, U.S, Reuters, Mizuho Bank Locations: Fuyang city, East China's Anhui, People's Bank of China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Asia, Oceania
Aussie surges after strong jobs data; China's yuan jumps
  + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Ultimately, it's another strong set of employment figures which keeps the pressure on a data-dependant (Reserve Bank of Australia) to potentially hike rates in August." The offshore yuan last bought 7.1901 per dollar, while the onshore yuan strengthened past 7.18 per dollar to a session-high of 7.1620. RATES OUTLOOKIn the broader currency market, sterling was nursing deep losses after a sharp fall in the previous session following Britain's inflation data, which undershot market expectations. "The market I think is a bit more reasonable now with its expectations for rate hikes by the BoE. "We thought (the fall) was too strong, so it looks like the dollar has regained some of those losses," said CBA's Capurso.
Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, it's, Ken Cheung, BoE, Joseph Capurso, Yannis Stournaras, CBA's Capurso, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, New Zealand, Bank of Australia, prudential, U.S ., People's Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Bank of England, Traders, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Central Bank, U.S, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, SINGAPORE, China, Asia
SHANGHAI/BEIJING, June 27 (Reuters) - China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore spot foreign exchange market on Tuesday, four sources with knowledge of the matter said, suggesting authorities wanted to slow the pace of the yuan's recent slide. Such state bank dollar selling appeared as the offshore yuan weakened towards the psychologically important 7.25 per dollar level, two of the sources said. "The 7.25 (yuan per dollar) level remains a key threshold," said one of them, adding a breach of the level could quickly send the yuan to lows last seen in 2022. The yuan's value onshore hit a trough of 7.3280 per dollar in November, levels last seen during the 2008 global financial crisis, while the offshore yuan dropped to a record low of 7.3746. [CNY/]Several currency traders also said they saw state banks selling dollars on Monday just ahead of the onshore domestic close (0830 GMT) to shore up the yuan's closing price, as the rate could determine the next day's official guidance rate.
Persons: China's, Kim Coghill, Vidya Ranganathan Organizations: People's Bank of China, UBS, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, United States, Shanghai, Beijing
The bank made the move over fears of secondary sanctions from the West, per RBC. Russia has been using the Chinese yuan to get around Western sanctions. Russian clients can still make yuan transfers within the Bank of China network, Semyonov added to RBC. The Chinese yuan surpassed the US dollar as the most heavily traded currency in February and March, according to Bloomberg data. Semyonov told RBC that Russian yuan transfers to the US and EU make up just 3% of all transfers in the currency.
Persons: , Russia's, Pavel Semyonov, Dmitry Lesnov, Semyonov, Finam Organizations: of, RBC, Service, The Bank of, European, Bank of China, EU, Novaya Gazeta, The, Swift, Bloomberg, Reuters Locations: of China, EU, Switzerland, Russia, The Bank of China, European Union, Modulbank, China, Novaya, Novaya Gazeta Europe, Ukraine
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