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☆ CNBC Fed Survey: 79% of respondents say the Fed should ignore fiscal uncertainty and cut rates
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 79% of respondents say the Fed should ignore fiscal uncertainty and cut ratesCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box to break down the latest results from the CNBC Fed Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: 96% of respondents see a November rate cut, 79% see rate cut in December
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 96% of respondents see a November rate cut, 79% see rate cut in DecemberCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's latest Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Survey
☆ Ray Dalio names the top five forces shaping the global economy
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Dalio made his remarks Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Debt, money and the economic cycleWith uncertainty still circling around what the Fed will do at its meeting this week, Dalio raised concerns about how the country's debt will be managed. 'Acts of nature'Dalio then said "acts of nature" have historically posed a bigger threat to humanity and society than war. "Acts of nature, droughts, floods and pandemics have killed more people and been responsible for more domestic orders and international orders changing," Dalio noted. According to the World Economic Forum, the climate crisis results in a 12% loss in global GDP for each 1°C increase in temperature.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Bloomberg, Getty, SINGAPORE, Milken, Summit, U.S, CNBC Fed, Economic, Technology Locations: Singapore, U.S, U.S . Federal, China, The U.S, South China
☆ Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed Survey
  + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The survey shows 84% of the 27 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed cutting by a quarter percentage point, with 16% seeing a half-point decrease. That compares with 65% probability of a half-point cut now priced into fed futures markets. "That forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft landing." (One basis point equals 0.01%)Soft landing expectedThe major difference could be that survey respondents appear less worried about the economy overall than futures markets, and more convinced the Fed has time to enact gradual rate cuts. Seventy-four percent said the September rate cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing, with just 15% saying it's too late.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, John Donaldson, Barry Knapp, it's, Michael Englund, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Haverford Trust Co, Ironsides, Fed
☆ Harris victory seen as most likely election outcome, according to CNBC Fed Survey
  + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
For the first time in the 2024 election cycle, Vice President Kamala Harris is viewed as more likely than former President Donald Trump to win the U.S. presidential election, according to a CNBC Fed Survey released Tuesday. Among the group, 48% see a Harris victory as the most likely scenario, while 41% believe Trump will win. Fifty-six percent of respondents to the CNBC Fed Survey believe a Trump presidency would be better for the stock market than a Harris administration. The respondents also forecast that Harris' economic proposals would be better for budget deficits and trade policy. They gave higher marks to Trump for how his policy proposals would impact business regulation, inflation, jobs and taxes.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Joel Naroff Organizations: White House, U.S, CNBC Fed, Biden, CNBC Fed Survey, Trump, Naroff Locations: Washington, Bedminster , New Jersey, United States
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: 81% of respondents expect first rate cut in September
  + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 81% of respondents expect first rate cut in SeptemberCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest news from the most recent CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, CNBC Federal Reserve Survey
☆ Fed could cut rates fewer times than expected as economy keeps growing, according to CNBC survey
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
But the possible downside of the better forecast: less Fed easing with the possibility that officials at their meeting this week forecast fewer rate cuts in 2024 they did in December. The CNBC Fed Survey respondents include economists, strategists and fund managers. And while the average recession probability is down, about 20% of respondents still say there's an even money chance or greater of a downturn in the next 12 months. "The larger-than-consensus reduction in the federal funds rate in my forecast is contingent on a recession that brings inflation down," said Robert Fry, of Robert Fry Economics. He has a 60% recession probability and sees the Fed slashing rates to 3.6% by year end from the current level of 5.38%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tom Williams, John Donaldson, it's, Scott Wren, Robert Fry Organizations: UNITED STATES, Federal, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Inc, Getty, CNBC Fed Survey, Haverford Trust Co, Wells, Investment Institute, CNBC Fed, Robert Fry Economics Locations: U.S
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%
  + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Bond yields expected to remain around 4%CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest from CNBC's exclusive Federal Reserve survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: 70% of respondents say first rate cut comes in June
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 70% of respondents say first rate cut comes in JuneCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from CNBC's latest Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Survey
☆ The Fed will cut rates fewer times and start them later than market hopes, according to CNBC Fed survey
  + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
watch nowRespondents to the CNBC Fed Survey see fewer interest rate cuts than the market's aggressive outlook, with the central bank starting them later in the year than traders currently hope. Fifty percent see a cut in May and only in June is there a majority of 70% predicting that rates go down. And while futures markets have priced in between five and six rate cuts, survey respondents, on average, see just a bit more than three. It's fairly typical for this group of Fed watchers to be more closely aligned with the Fed's outlook than the market. By 2025, the market, the survey and the Fed forecasts all converge on a Funds rate between 3.3% and 3.6%.
Persons: Joel Naroff, Jerome Powell, Jay, Powell, Peter Boockvar Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Naroff, Fed, Bleakley Financial
☆ Five defensive stocks to buy now if you think there's recession risk ahead
  + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
CVS YTD mountain CVS stock has fallen 15% from the start of the year. KR YTD mountain Kroger stock has added nearly 2% from the start of the year. AER YTD mountain AerCap stock has rise nearly 28% from the start of 2023. GM YTD mountain General Motors stock has gained 8% in 2023. GPN YTD mountain Global Payments stock has risen 27% year to date.
Persons: Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Kroger, there's, AerCap, Kaser's, Aengus Kelly Organizations: Brandywine Global, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Federal Reserve, CVS, Kroger, Albertsons, KR, Aerospace, Motors, United Auto Workers, UBS, GM, General Motors, Global Locations: Brandywine, U.S, Walmart's heft
☆ Investors seeking a high-quality bond fund can find one in this 'solid' offering, says Morningstar
  + stars: | 2023-12-15 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
By contrast, the other intermediate-term fund on the Morningstar FundInvestor 500 list, PIMCO Investment Grade Credit Bond fund, has more than 10% in high yield, according to Morningstar. "That's why having that exposure to investment grade corporate bonds … at this point in the cycle is a tremendous value," he added. Meanwhile, the assets in the fund that are high yield are what Narayanan calls high quality, "mispriced securities." Those are the types of names that have recently been upgraded back into the investment grade space," he said. "We tend to use that capacity in high yield to add to those types of issuers before the upgrade, anticipating the upgrade."
Persons: Morningstar, Paul Olmsted, Olmsted, Arvind Narayanan, Narayanan, VFIDX Organizations: Vanguard's, Fund, SEC, Morningstar, Oppenheimer, Vanguard, Credit Bond, CNBC Fed Survey, Fitch, Occidental Petroleum, Federal Reserve Locations: Detroit, Morningstar, Treasurys, Occidental
☆ Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November
  + stars: | 2023-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
While the monthly rate indicated a pickup from the flat CPI reading in October, the annual rate showed another decline after hitting 3.2% a month earlier. The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday . Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for no gain and a yearly rate of 3.1%. Food prices increased 0.2%, boosted by a 0.4% jump in food away from home. On an annual basis, food rose 2.9% while energy was down 5.4%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bright MLS, Fed, CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC PRO
☆ Markets are on board with the Fed's ‘higher for longer’ policy, CNBC survey shows
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
As recently as the summer, respondents had forecast rate cuts in the beginning of next year. The change can also be seen in the outlook for the fed funds rate, the central bank's benchmark for short-term lending costs. It's now forecast on average to end 2024 at 4.6%, assuming about 75 basis points of rate cuts. In June, the year-end 2024 funds rate was forecast at 3.8%, which assumed 125 basis points of cuts. Some 60% of respondents see the Fed hitting its inflation target in 2025 or sometime after that, and 19% don't believe the Fed will ever get there.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Peter Boockvar, Robert Brusca, Troy Ludtka Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal Reserve, Bleakley Financial, Fed, Nikko Securities
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: Respondents expect no additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: Respondents expect no additional rate hikes from the Federal ReserveCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on data from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, Survey, Federal, Reserve Survey
☆ CNBC Fed Survey: 40% of respondents say stocks are somewhat overpriced relative to soft landing
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey: 40% of respondents say stocks are somewhat overpriced relative to soft landingCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the news from the latest CNBC Fed Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey
☆ Retailers are preparing for a discount heavy, down holiday season: CNBC survey
  + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Many retailers are still drawing down inventories now as peak season for orders begins. Based on the concerns about cutbacks by consumers, 77% of all items being ordered this holiday season are middle-price point items, including jackets. Traditionally, retail sector orders for peak season items are placed in late winter, or early spring. Trucking, ground, rail profit hits For ground logistical firms, rail companies, and short-haul trucking, moving holiday products during peak season is a lucrative and critical time of year for making money. The largest subgroup of survey respondents who predict placing higher freight orders (42%) pegged the increase in a range of 6%-10%.
Persons: Patrick T, Cleary, Stephen Lamar, Jon Gold Organizations: Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC Supply Chain Survey, Target, Walmart, CNBC, American Apparel & Footwear Association, American Footwear and Apparel Association, National Retail Federation, Council of Supply Chain Management, United National Consumer Suppliers, CNBC Fed Survey, Wall Street, Survey, Retailers, Chain, Labor Locations: West Coast, West
☆ CNBC Fed Survey respondents show bearish outlook on equities through year-end
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey respondents show bearish outlook on equities through year-endCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC, Reserve Survey
☆ 91% of CNBC Fed survey respondents don't foresee a rate hike in June
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email91% of CNBC Fed survey respondents don't foresee a rate hike in JuneCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the result of the latest CNBC Fed survey.
Persons: Steve Liesman Organizations: CNBC Fed
☆ The message top corporate CFOs are sending directly to Fed presidents isn't a bullish one
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
The Fed remains focused on the labor market and cooling wage growth while raising unemployment as the key to bringing hot services inflation down. "I shared with him [a regional Fed president] that they should stop, not pause," said another CFO on the call. "The consumer is being smart," the CFO said, but the Fed focus on bringing unemployment up can break the consumer. "I gave this message to him [a Fed president]: we can manage through this with unemployment below 4%." CFOs said the labor market remains tight and the wage gains, while slowing, have created a higher wage base which can't be turned back.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, That's, Wall, Randy Kroszner, CFOs, Sara Eisen, Kroszner, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Fed, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Chatham House, Corporations, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Washington ,
☆ Problems are mounting in the economy, big companies say, and another Fed rate hike may be one too many
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
While that's good for them, it also means "we're definitely moving towards a slowdown," one CFO said. "They are trying to fight a problem but there's evidence around the U.S. that says the economy is slowing. One concern voiced by CFOs is that the top end of the consumer market has been masking deeper problems in the economy, with companies tracking a rise in credit delinquencies, and that is now starting to spread. But inside major corporations, executives say they see signs of mounting trouble for the economy and as another interest rate hike looms, it may be time for the Fed to stop. While traders are betting on rate cuts before year-end, the CNBC Fed Survey shows a belief from economists and money managers that the Fed will hold rates higher for eight months.
☆ CNBC Fed Survey respondents expect rates to stay high for eight months
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCNBC Fed Survey respondents expect rates to stay high for eight monthsCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on results from the latest CNBC Federal Reserve Survey.
☆ 44% of CNBC Fed survey respondents see rate cuts this year
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email44% of CNBC Fed survey respondents see rate cuts this yearCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the results from the most recent Federal Reserve survey.
☆ Why the case is growing for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before year end
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +11 min
The Fed will get to 5%, but quickly start to retreat so that the year-end rate is going to be 4.6%, according to the Fed Survey. The Fed interest rate policy path is pretty clear for the next few months of Federal Reserve FOMC meetings. Fear of recession dipped in the latest Fed Survey, but it's still elevated, with 51% of respondents expecting a recession. The Fed Survey doesn't have a positive outlook on growth for 2023, but isn't forecasting negative growth either. But one consumer CFO did say that the way price increases are "pushed through" is becoming more strategic as opposed to across-the-board.
☆ Fed rate hike pushes small business loan interest over 10% for first time in nearly a generation
  + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
Many business owners have never seen double-digits," said Rohit Arora, co-founder and CEO of small business lending platform Biz2Credit. Almost a quarter of small business owners said they are paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, and the highest since 2008. The latest CNBC Fed Survey shows the market forecasting a peak Fed rate around 5% in March 2023 and the rate being held there for nine months. "Talking to small business owners looking for financing, it's starting to slow things down," Hurn said. Small business loan approval percentages at big banks dropped in November to the second lowest total in 2022 (14.6%), according to the latest Biz2Credit Small Business Lending Index released this week; and also dropped at small banks (21.1%).
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