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☆ Dollar pulls ahead as markets focus on Trump policies, Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

After stalling for three sessions, the greenback was back on the march higher, with investors lifting the dollar index measure against its key rivals closer to a one-year high of 107.07 hit last week. The dollar has rallied more than 2% since the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election on bets Trump's policies could reignite inflation and temper the Fed's future rate cuts. The dollar index held steady at 106.56, up from a one-week nadir hit in the previous session. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict is heating up, which is further denting sentiment towards the euro alongside the prospects of trade tariffs," another "bullish cue" for the dollar index given the euro's heavy weighting, City Index's Simpson said. The dollar gave up some gains against the yen, down 0.33% at 154.91 yen , although the Japanese currency remained under pressure.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, CME's, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Index's Simpson, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, bitcoin, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Wednesday, Storm, ATACMS, Bank of Japan, Bank of England's Locations: Europe, China, Russia, Ukraine, Paris

☆ Dollar sags to one-week low after safety bid, 'Trump trade' momentum wanes
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin pushed to a fresh all-time peak above $94,000, carried by expectations for a friendlier regulator environment for cryptocurrencies under Trump. "The 'Trump Trade' that boosted the greenback is facing challenges from Trump's controversial cabinet nominations and the escalation in the Russian-Ukraine war," DBS strategists wrote in a client note. Traders continue to pare back expectations for an interest-rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in December. The dollar added 0.9% to 154.84 yen after falling sharply to 153.28 on Tuesday following the Russia news. The euro held steady at $1.0598 , having recovered from a drop to $1.0524 in the previous session.

Persons: Donald Trump's, Bitcoin, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Trump's, pare, CME's, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S, Moscow, Trump, Treasury, Wall Street, Commerce Department, Trump Trade, DBS, Traders, Financial Times Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia

☆ Jim Cramer has these 3 stocks on his buy list in an oversold market
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Jim Cramer said the potential rate cuts next week and possibly again in December provide a "bullish backdrop" for the overall market, favoring many of our stocks that benefit from lower rates. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, we're, Jim, Stocks, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Web Services, Chevron, Exxon, Intel, AMD Locations: Thursday's, oversold, Europe, Ukraine

☆ The Fed is likely to disappoint markets with just one more rate cut this year amid global inflation, BlackRock CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says the Fed will cut rates just once more this year. The market sees two more 25 basis point cuts before the end of the year. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve will disappoint markets by cutting interest rates just one more time in 2024, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said. Fink said the Fed will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year amid a rise in global inflation. The central bank kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis point cut last month.

Persons: Larry Fink, —, Fink, " Fink, we're, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, Service, Reserve, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs Act, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

☆ The one big fear that could upend the bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.

Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow

☆ Gold slips as dollar firms; market eyes crucial U.S. data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one kilogram gold bar sits on top of silver bars. Gold prices fell on Monday as the U.S. dollar held firm, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,733.01 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. A stronger dollar makes gold less appealing for other currency holders. Gold hit a record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties.

Persons: Tim Waterer, CME's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S ., Federal, U.S, KCM, Fed, Iranian Locations: U.S

☆ 10-year Treasury yield dips after scaling 3-month highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was one basis lower at 4.19% after breaching 4.25% on Wednesday. The 2-year Treasury was fractionally lower at 4.063%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury eased slightly Friday after hitting a three-month high this week. Others have stated the need to be "cautious and deliberate" and "patient" with further cuts. Market pricing puts a 97% probability on the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Beth Hammack Organizations: Treasury, Traders, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed

Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year Treasury was about two basis points higher at 4.047%. After jumping 12 basis points on Monday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose nearly three basis points to 4.21%, a level it has not reached in three months. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued its gains on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials urged caution on the path of interest rate cuts. It is a quiet week on the data front, but a busy week for Federal Reserve commentary, with an array of policymakers delivering speeches. Rates have actually increased since the Fed cut rates by a half point one month ago.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Jeff Schmid, —, Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Dallas Federal, Kansas, Traders Locations: U.S

☆ What happened Friday hasn't happened in ages. It bodes well for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Getting ready for the "two problematic stories," Wells Fargo and JPMorgan , which came later in the morning, took some real digging. ET – Wells Fargo shares turned and started inching up. With what you saw in Wells Fargo and JP Morgan on Friday. Think like this: When the psychology of the market changes, people don't want to bang out of Wells Fargo, they want to get in. But there is no doubt that Wells Fargo at 11 times forward earnings now seems a little silly given that the background is so positive.

Persons: Larry Fink, Wells, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Marks, JP Morgan, Scharf, It's, Warren Buffett, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, haven't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Wall, Club, Wells Fargo, Elon, SpaceX, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Fed, Bank of America, Boston, Walmart, Costco, Semiconductors, Enterprise, JFrog, Microsoft, –, Dow, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, NII, U.S

☆ Gold drifts higher after data supports U.S. rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices climbed on Friday after recent data supported bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, while market participants awaited the U.S. Producer Price Index report for further direction. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,641.70 per ounce by 0245 GMT but was down about 0.4% for the week. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, while jobless claims increased to 258,000 in the week ended Oct. 5, versus estimates of 230,000. "Gold is seeing short-term gains as recent data has been positive. If the PPI data comes in softer, gold's momentum could continue upward," said Kelvin Wong, OANDA's senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Persons: Price, Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, CME's Organizations: Federal, PPI, Asia Locations: Tokyo, Japan, CME's FedWatch, Beirut

☆ Dollar on a roll after U.S. jobs data and Middle East flare-up
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bank notes of the Chinese yuan, Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. Japan's yen fell to its lowest in nearly two months and other major currencies too were grappling with losses early on Monday as the dollar extended a rally sparked by Friday's strong U.S. jobs data and an escalation in the Middle East conflict. But that came on top of a more than 4% decline last week, its biggest weekly percentage decline since early 2009. Yields dipped early last week when investors bought safe-haven Treasuries after Iran launched more than 180 missiles against Israel in escalating geopolitical tensions. Market expectations have swung to the extreme for the Federal Reserve to do just a 25 bps cut in November, rather than 50 bps, following the jobs data.

Persons: Friday's, Chris Weston, haven't, Brent, underperformance, Shigeru Ishiba, Sterling, Huw Pill, Andrew Bailey, BoE Organizations: U.S ., Federal, U.S, Treasuries, Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: China, East, Israel, Lebanon, Gaza, Iran, Japan

☆ Treasury yields dip ahead of September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by one basis point at 3.84%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was also one basis point lower at 3.697%. U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower early Friday as investors gear up for the closely watched September jobs report. Treasury yields rose on Thursday after ADP data showed private payrolls grew by more than expected in September. Private companies added 143,000 jobs, ahead of August's figure of 103,000 and a forecast of 128,000. That was given as justification for the jumbo 50-basis-point interest rate cut carried out by the Fed last month.

Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Fed

☆ Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.

Persons: Brian Lan, —, CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth

☆ Stock market today: US indexes edge higher to records as Powell talks up strength of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Powell emphasized the economy's strength and recalibrated interest rate cut expectations. Investors are also eyeing key employment data releases this week for further market direction. All three major indexes moved higher in late trading following Powell's comments about the strength of the US economy. AdvertisementPowell's comments recalibrated interest rate cut expectations in the market. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:AdvertisementAside from Fed comments, investors are preparing for a wave of employment data this week.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Dow, Federal, National Association for Business Economics

☆ Stock market today: Indexes add to records as traders parse more economic data and Fed comments
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are parsing through data and Fed commentary to determine future rate cuts. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman explained why she dissented against a deep cut in September. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! Both indexes closed at all-time highs on Monday amid rising outlooks that the Federal Reserve will deliver another half-point interest rate cut in November. To better understand where monetary policy may be headed after the Fed's first rate cut in four years, investors are tuning into Fed commentary and parsing through incoming data.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, —, dovish, Michelle Bowman's, Bowman Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Fed, Richmond, Here's Locations: Kentucky

☆ Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.

Persons: Steven Blitz, —, Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve

☆ Stock market today: Dow ends at a record high as markets see rising odds of another big rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high amid hopes for more rate cuts. Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting increased to 53%, up from 29% last week. AdvertisementUS stocks gained on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at record highs as hopes of more Fed interest rate cuts ramped up. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect the Fed funds rate to fall to below 3% by the end of 2025, from 4.83% on Monday. That lines up with Kashkari's projection for the long-term Fed funds rate to sit at around 2.9%.

Persons: —, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed Locations: Chicago

☆ Stock market today: Indexes close at record highs and tech soars after Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes rallied to record highs as investors cheered Wednesday's rate cut from the Fed. Jobless claims reinforced the Fed's message of a strong labor market, with last weeks's claims down 12,000. AdvertisementMajor stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday, a day after a jumbo rate cut from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time in four years, slashing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. The Fed's dot plot shows the central bank will likely cut another 50 basis points this year and 100 basis points next year.

Persons: —, Dan Ives, Ives, Jerome Powell, Powell, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Fed . Tech, Nvidia, Meta, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Broadcom, ASML, Labor Department, Treasury, Fed, Trump Media Locations: Here's

☆ It's a big week for central banks around the world, with a slew of rate moves on the table
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.

Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan

☆ Here are the stocks that win when the Fed cuts rates with no recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fed funds futures have fully priced in that the central bank will lower interest rates, according to CME's FedWatch tool . Many now expect the Fed will achieve the coveted "soft landing" outcome, which means inflation is curbed without tipping the economy into a recession. Rate cuts without a recession has historically been a positive mixture for stocks. Given this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for names that have performed nicely in past periods where the Fed pulled rates lower without the U.S. economy tipping into a recession. To find these companies, CNBC Pro searched the S & P 500 for members with the highest median gain one year after the Fed has cut rates without an official recession.

Persons: Genuity, LSEG, Paul Lejuez, WMT Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Pro, Nike, Dow Jones Industrial, Intel, Boeing, Walmart, Dow, Citi, Wall Locations: U.S, Rochester , New York

☆ Stock market today: S&P 500 goes for 5-day win streak as markets look ahead to next week's Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Friday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 aimed for a five-day win streak. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut announcement next week. The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2019, with about even odds for a 25- or 50-basis point cut. Based on probabilities from the CME's FedWatch Tool, there's a 49%/51% split on whether the Fed will deliver a 50-basis point or 25-basis point interest rate cut, respectively. AdvertisementNext week's expected interest rate cut from the Fed will represent the first time the central bank has lowered rates since 2019.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, it's, Aditya Bhave Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: Here's

☆ Wall Street mounts a comeback, and Honeywell finally hints at what may be next
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Kapur, We've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Club, Nvidia, Broadcom, Nvidia's, Technology Conference, Honeywell, Laguna Conference, Signet Jewelers, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Kroger

☆ Stock futures are little changed as traders brace for August consumer inflation report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Tuesday night ahead of the August consumer inflation report due Wednesday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both dipped 0.1%. Traders are anticipating a key economic report Wednesday morning: August's consumer price index. The CPI report and Thursday's producer price index could help determine the size of a widely expected rate cut at the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on Sept. 18. Fed funds futures trading suggests a 69% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 31% likelihood of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, CME's, Kristina Hooper, Hooper Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Nvidia, JPMorgan, CPI, Federal

☆ No bear market for stocks in sight even as macro and policy uncertainty threaten further volatility, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Higher valuations, a mixed macro outlook, and policy uncertainty raise the risk of further declines for stocks. Yet, odds of a bear market are low amid a strong private sector and coming rate cuts, Goldman Sachs says. AdvertisementMacro and policy uncertainty have raised warning signs for further volatility for stocks in recent weeks, but the risk of a steeper correction into bear market territory looks remote, Goldman Sachs analysts said. According to the bank, there's an elevated risk that investors pullback amid lofty valuations, a mixed macro outlook, and policy uncertainty. The firm's outlook comes as indexes have been rattled in recent months by volatility stemming from weaker-than-expected macro data.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, — Organizations: Service, Fed

☆ Citi says buy this boat dealer because Fed rate cuts will increase affordability
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

MarineMax is a smart pick for investors looking for beneficiaries of lower interest rates, according to Citi. Analyst James Hardiman upgraded shares of the boat dealer to buy from neutral and upped his price target by $4, or 10%, to $44. Key to Hardiman's upgrade is the idea that the stock can get a boost when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. After holding interest rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50% for more than a year, the long-awaited first cut may come as soon as next week. Shares briefly popped more than 7% in early Monday trading, a reprieve after a tough 2024, when MarineMax shares have tumbled more than 21%.

Persons: James Hardiman, CME's, Hardiman Organizations: Citi, Federal Reserve

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