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☆ Fed cuts could turn the tide for commercial real estate. Where to find opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii

☆ Commercial property has been in a slump. How lower interest rates could lift it out.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Read previewUma Moriarity, a senior investment strategist at a real estate investment firm based outside of Philadelphia, is feeling better about deal-making in commercial real estate. A reduction in the Fed's benchmark rate would bring relief to the $22.5 trillion US commercial real estate market, which was shaken by a series of interest rate increases beginning in March 2022. AdvertisementThe increases diminished commercial property values, raised mortgage defaults, and triggered the sector's worst downturn since the financial crisis more than 15 years ago. "We're looking at a very good 2025 and beyond," Mark Rose, the CEO of the real estate services firm Avison Young, said. "Commercial property prices have increased over the past few months as bond yields have declined," Peter Rothemund, the co-head of strategic research at Green Street, said in the firm's recent property pricing report.

Persons: —, Uma Moriarity, Moriarty, Mark Rose, Avison Young, Richard Barkham, We've, Fitch, CMBS, Peter Rothemund, Alan Todd, Todd, CLO Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, CenterSquare Investment Management, Green, Mortgage, Association, Bank of America, Bank of America Securities Locations: Philadelphia, Trepp

☆ It looks like the commercial real estate market has finally bottomed out — and experts say it's time to invest
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe embattled commercial real estate market may finally have a few things going its way, according to recent data. AdvertisementAnd yet, lending volumes are slightly improving, Moody's said. As these lenders are most exposed to commercial real estate, some analysts have warned that hundreds of banks risk failing in the next few years. Now, some see opportunity in the real estate market. "We think this will be an attractive vintage for real estate credit," analysts Matt Salem and Dakota Sagnelli wrote, later adding: "A growing number of commercial real estate transactions should increase the number of opportunities to lend, while the dearth of bank capital should keep yields attractive and spreads relative to corporate credit elevated."

Persons: —, Moody's, they've, Matt Salem, Dakota Sagnelli Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, KKR Locations: Dakota

☆ An ultra-safe corner of the commercial real estate debt market is seeing losses as the sector struggles
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate pain is sparking defaults in bonds backed by loans on high-quality properties. The recent stress is a sign of deep pain in the sector as values wobble and loans reach maturity. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementPain in commercial real estate has spread to an even ultra-safe corner of the commercial mortgage market, with losses being seen for bonds backed by debt on the highest quality properties. Defaults on single-asset, single-borrower bonds — which are commercial mortgage-backed securities tied to a single, high-quality property —have skyrocketed over the past few years, according to Commercial Real Estate Finance Council data cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Real Estate Finance, Wall Street, Business

☆ Here’s where money managers are seeking income at mid-year as rates stay high
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The prospect of "higher for longer" rates has also made short-term fixed income assets especially attractive. "We had a lot of investors who were in, if not cash, then sub-2-year duration fixed income at the start of the year." Takeaways for investors It doesn't hurt for retail investors to review their fixed income allocation now that the year is halfway over. A combination of fixed income assets may be what it takes to benefit from today's higher rates, lock in yields and capture rising prices once the Fed cuts. "We don't buy that there's one fixed income asset class that you should tilt toward," said Calcagni.

Persons: –, Don Calcagni, it's, Shannon Saccocia, Neuberger Berman, Michael Rosen, Rosen, Janus Henderson, Vishal Khanduja, Eaton Vance, Khanduja, Callie Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Investment Company Institute, Money, Mercer Advisors, Investors, Municipal, Angeles Investment Advisors, AAA CLOs, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Bond, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Stay Locations: Santa Monica, Calif

☆ UBS says it's time to move out of cash. Here's where it sees opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The era of hiding out in cash is coming to an end, according to UBS. While investors have been earning yields of more than 5% on instruments like money market funds and certificates of deposit, those rates aren't expected to stick around much longer. "We believe investors should limit their overall cash balances as falling interest rates this year and beyond will diminish returns on cash," Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note Monday. Investors flooded into money market funds as the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in 2022. UBS also moved out on the curve on TIPS earlier this month after initially buying 5-year inflation-protected securities in August.

Persons: Marcelli, Leslie Falconio, Falconio Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Investors, Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, AAA, AAA CMBS Locations: UBS Americas

☆ Why some investors are bullish on this asset class that's yielding over 6%
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Right now, securitized products in general look relatively cheap, said John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. To meet this need, Janus launched its Securitized Income ETF (JSI) in November, which invests across the securitized space. JSI YTD mountain Janus Henderson Securitized Income ETF Collateralized loan obligations Another fund Kerschner manages is the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF . One way investors can get broad exposure to CMBS via BlackRock's iShares CMBS ETF . CMBS YTD mountain iShares CMBS ETF year to date However, Janus' Kerschner pointed out that all office work isn't going away.

Persons: Nick Travaglino, Nuveen, Travaglino, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Janus, Kerschner, Rick Rieder, I've, Rieder, CLOs, it's, isn't, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Kershner, We're Organizations: Investors, Fund, Janus Henderson Investors, SEC, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, Bank of America, AAA CLOs, BlackRock AAA CLO Locations: CLOs, BlackRock, Moody's, CMBS, multifamily

☆ How to lock in attractive, high-income returns from low-risk bonds in an inverted yield curve, according to a portfolio manager
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

And that's seen by the dot plot and their own inability to predict when interest rate cuts are going to happen." Related storiesWhen the yield curve is inverted, meaning short-term rates are above longer-term ones, a barbell strategy in bonds means betting on long- and short-duration bonds. And that barbell is kind of what investing in the yield curve looks like today", Huffman said. But if interest rates fall, you will be forced to reinvest in a lower interest rate environment. Avoid the 10-year or 30-year duration bonds because they will face a negative yield curve role, which could reduce their total return potential, she added.

Persons: Taylor Huffman, Huffman, it's Organizations: PT Asset Management, Business, Management's, Bond, Securities

☆ The 4% mortgage rate and other sweet offers from lenders hoping to stave off commercial real estate doom
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Instead a deal is now being negotiated to trim the size of the property's $240 million mortgage and potentially extend the loan at below-market interest rates in an attempt to revive the property's fortunes. The negotiations show that as hundreds of billions of dollars of commercial real estate debts come due or have already tumbled into default, deals are being arranged behind the scenes to try to stave off financial catastrophe. More borrowers and lenders have sought to buy timeThere is mounting evidence that such negotiations are taking place more widely. There have been concerns that trillions of dollars of upcoming commercial property debt maturities could inflict heavy losses that could weigh on investors and lenders across the property market and even cause systemic issues in the banking sector. The deal is part of a growing number of sales by some lenders to cut down their exposure to commercial real estate.

Persons: Realty, Michael Maturo, we'd, Maturo, Jack Terzi, Terzi, Jamie Woodwell, Stephen Buschbom, Trepp, Alan Todd, David Blumberg, Raymond Boyd, Blumberg, Robert Ivanhoe, Greenberg Traurig, Ivanhoe Organizations: New, Aareal Bank, Business, JTRE Holdings, Mortgage Bankers Association, Treasury Department, Bank of America, 601W Companies, Aon, Aon Center, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York City, Chicago

☆ How real estate's pain could be Wall Street's gain as Blackstone, Goldman, and others dive back in.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

That's not to say predictions of a commercial real estate rebound are a sure bet. Here are four signs that support Gray's prediction that the commercial real estate market may be bottoming. (New York Community Bank had previously purchased $2.7 billion in Signature's loans and deposits, but not the real estate loans.) According to David Seifert, partner at private equity real estate firm Velocis, there are some sweet deals to be had in secondary sales of private-equity funds tied to real estate. The road aheadWhere Gray sees signs of bottoming, others think commercial real estate has much further to fall.

Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, Paul Getty, Getty, Steve Mnuchin —, Blackstone, Mnuchin, Donald Trump's, George Soros, John Paulson, It's, Jonathan Gray, Jim Garman, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Gray, Tracy Chen, Chen, BGO, secondaries There's, Ares, Brian King, King, David Seifert, Seifert, Velocis, Goldman Sachs, Dan McNamara, McNamara, Scott Rechler, wallop, Janet Yellen, Rechler, there's Organizations: Business, Goldman, Reuters, Starwood, Brandywine Global, Federal Reserve, . Bank, New York Community Bank, FDIC, Signature Bank, Community Bank, Fund Management, Community Preservation, New, Commercial Observer, Blackstone, Homes, Digital Realty, Polpo, RXR Locations: Blackstone, , New York, New York, BREIT, Real, Velocis

☆ Premarket stocks: Why it’s not all doom and gloom for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.

Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, —, Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, “, Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States

☆ Life insurers binge on US financing aimed at helping housing
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Koh Gui Qing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

It has been predominantly used by life insurers, because they need to boost their investment returns with cheap funding to meet long-term liabilities. They provide the cheap funding to banks and insurers in exchange for collateral to ensure they get their money back. Insurers are entitled to tap FHLB funding. Insurers’ borrowing from FHLBs picked up in 2008 financial crisis, as those that spread themselves thin with aggressive investments scrambled for cash. They did not explain why insurers need FHLB funding to invest in mortgages.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Ryan Donovan, CMBS, Lawrence White, White, Graphics JUICING, Cynthia Beaulieu, Cornelius Hurley, Hurley, FHLBs, ’, Michael Ericson, Jack Dolan, Koh Qui, Greg Roumeliotis, Anna Driver Organizations: REUTERS, Loan, Federal Housing Finance Agency, of Federal Home Loan, FHLBs, FHLB, National Association of Insurance, New York University, MetLife Inc, Equitable Holdings Inc, Corebridge, Brighthouse Financial, MetLife, TIAA, Equitable, Graphics, Wellington Management, Boston University School of Law, Coalition, Silicon Valley Bank, First, American, of, Insurance Coalition, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, Boston, Silicon, First Republic, Chicago, New York

☆ The warped financial logic fueling America’s ‘doom loop’
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Adam Rogers | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Well, when a landlord doesn't lower the rent to get a new retail tenant, it's because that landlord can't. They're free to renegotiate or refinance the terms of mortgages, given the extraordinary downturn facing retail storefronts. And the future will be full of even higher vacancy rates, higher interest rates, and lower rents. Retail rents have flattened, she says, but the construction of retail space has not. Still, from an urban-planning standpoint, the way we finance retail space makes no sense.

Persons: You've, apocalypses, that's, It's, David Greensfelder, Greensfelder, Banks, what's, —, Larisa Ortiz, Ortiz, Justin Sullivan, Lorenzo Perez, I've, Rachel Meltzer, Kazuko Morgan, Perez, Culdesac, Something's, Meltzer, Adam Rogers Organizations: McKinsey & Company, Verizon, Republics, Harvard Locations: America, Urban, Manhattan, San Francisco, Market, vaya, What's, Phoenix, That's, LA, New York, Wakefield, Tempe , Arizona

☆ 'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach says buy long-dated Treasurys, with prices set to rebound going into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jeffrey Gundlach says long-duration Treasurys will make a good short-term trade in a recession. Gundlach also sees agency mortgage securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive. "We like long-term treasury bonds for the short-term trade going into a recession. "There has been about a 50% drawdown in the long bond, which means there is now potential for the long bond to go up in price." In calling a recession on the horizon, he also touted agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive investments.

Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, — Organizations: Service, DoubleLine Capital, AAA

☆ Are office buildings the next 'Big Short' or the next widow-maker trade? The trader behind the ubersuccessful mall short shares his playbook for making money without flaming out.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

Dan McNamara's Polpo Capital is shorting office real estate, a risky move that could be lucrative. If you're looking for a doomsday vision of commercial real estate, you can find it there. "I don't think this is the 'Big Short,'" McNamara told me. This doesn't mean he doesn't have a game plan to make money off cultural shifts that could forever change the state of commercial real estate. Lucas Jackson/ReutersWhere he's going longOne risk of shorting real estate is that it's more susceptible to what's known in real-estate circles as "extend and pretend."

Persons: Dan McNamara's, McNamara, it's, It's, shorting, Carl Icahn, Jim Chanos, Brendan McDermid, Dan McNamara, McNamara's, Braver Stern, Dan McNamara McNamara's, suede loafers, McNamara didn't, Josh Nester, Polpo, he's, Morgan Stanley, Kamil Sadik, Lucas Jackson, Manus Clancy, You've, David Tepper's, Trepp's Clancy, Clancy, David Tepper Organizations: Central Park, New, Polpo, New York University, Columbia, Kynikos Associates, Enron, Asset Management, Reuters, UBS, Co, Societe Generale, Securitized Credit Partners, Credit Suisse, MP, Fund, Bloomberg, of America, Simon Property, Federal Locations: Manhattan, Sixth, Central, New York City, New York, MatlinPatterson, America, China, Italy, Westchester , New York, Tribeca, York, Westchester, Waterford , Connecticut, Baltimore, San Francisco

☆ Tudor, Adage Capital among hedge funds making bets on NYC office space
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Basswood Capital, Adage Capital Partners and Paul Tudor Jones' Tudor Investment Corp were among the hedge funds that took new positions in real estate investment trusts that specialize in New York City office space last quarter, despite questions over how long work-from-home policies will weigh on the market, securities filings released on Monday showed. Basswood Capital purchased roughly 360,000 shares of Vornado Realty Trust and nearly 72,000 shares of SL Green, while Adage Capital Partners bought 205,000 shares of SL Green. Tudor Investment Corp bought nearly 152,000 shares of SL Green. Shares of Vornado are up nearly 7% for the year to date, while shares of SL Green are up slightly less than 1%. Basswood, Adage Capital, and Tudor Investment Corp did not respond to requests for comment.

Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, KBRA, David Randall, Richard Chang Organizations: Basswood, Capital Partners, Tudor Investment Corp, Basswood Capital, Vornado Realty Trust, SL Green, SL, New, Reuters, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: New York City

☆ US commercial property delinquencies rise further in July -report
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Matt Tracy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rise in the rate reflects continued stress in the U.S. commercial real estate sector as a post-pandemic environment had more people working from home or shopping online. Office loans made up roughly 35% of the newly special serviced and delinquent loans in July rated by KBRA at $898.4 million. So far in July, multiple office properties have been transferred to special servicing due to imminent monetary default. The total special servicing balance on multi-loan CMBS sharply increased $830.7 million to $14 billion, the largest rise since August 2020, the report said. KeyBank's subsidiary KeyBank Real Estate Capital handles commercial real estate lending and servicing.

Persons: Amr Alfiky, KBRA, Chris Gorman, KeyCorp, Matt Tracy, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, KBRA, Estate Capital, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

Five hedge funds shared five trading ideas on global property markets, adding that they cannot reveal trading positions for regulatory reasons. CM REITs are companies that own mortgages of multi-family residential homes as well as commercial real estate loans. Cell phone data Litt bought to research a REIT run by Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE.N), showed that buildings which that were supposed to be almost fully occupied were only half full. Alexandria Real Estate responded pointing to public filings which said that it was the advancement of science and related intellectual property in Alexandria’s Labspace buildings, and not employee foot traffic that drove its demand for space. But Litt believes that the shift away from office working will also hurt life and sciences real estate, generally.

Persons: Jonathan Mizrachi, CMBSs, David Amaryan, Ben Hunsaker, Hunsaker, Jonathan Litt, Litt, ANSON, Moez Kassam, Vistry, Kassam, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alison Williams Organizations: Property, Capital, Beach, Beach Point Capital Management, REITs, Alexandria Real, Reuters, Vistry, Thomson Locations: York, Russia, Russia's, Ukraine, Armenia, Beach Point, Alexandria, Alexandria’s, London, Carolina, New York

☆ The 'time has come' for mortgaged-backed securities, says UBS. Here's what to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The AAA asset class in agency MBS can bring in a yield ranging as high as 5.5% to 6%, said Leslie Falconio, head of fixed income strategy in UBS Americas' chief investment office. "Agency mortgages are the cheapest part, on a risk-adjusted basis certainly, in the entire fixed income market." She specifically likes agency MBS and expects them to "materially outperform" in the second half of the year. Luis Alvarado, a fixed income strategist at Wells Fargo, also looks at MBS as a possible replacement for some investment-grade corporate debt in a fixed income portfolio. UBS' Falconio is also awaiting a better entry point for CMBS, as well as nonagency MBS.

Persons: Leslie Falconio, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Falconio, Luis Alvarado, He's, Alvarado, Wells, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MBS, AAA, UBS, Agency, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: UBS Americas, Wells Fargo

In recent weeks, banks have stepped up efforts to prevent such losses, according to commercial real estate (CRE) analysts and industry data. The 23 largest U.S. banks held 20% of office and downtown retail CRE loans, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Small banks also have high exposure to CRE loans as a percentage of their assets. About $2.1 billion of office loans pooled in CMBS matured in May, almost double the total amount from January through April, for example. If borrowers agreed to loan extensions, some $10.8 billion of office loans maturing this year would be pushed to later years, Moody's said.

Persons: Shaishav Agarwal, Agarwal, Steve Jellinek, Moody's, Kevin Fagan, Fagan, ” Fagan, Eliasaf, ”, Banks, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Matt Tracy, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, Manhattan, Northwind, Thomson Locations: York

☆ JPMorgan upgrades this regional bank stock with limited exposure to commercial real estate, sees 25% gain
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan thinks there's a buying opportunity in regional bank Valley National. The bank upgraded Valley National Bancorp to overweight from neutral Monday with a $10 per share price target. Analyst Steven Alexopoulos noted that Valley National's exposure to the commercial real estate market is reasonably below peers which could shield the firm from loan headwinds. Valley National shares have tanked more than 29% in 2023. The stock dropped with the broader regional banking space after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year.

Persons: Steven Alexopoulos, Alexopoulos, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Bancorp, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Silicon

☆ Property Owners May Soon Get a New Reason to Sell
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Property buyers loaded up on unusually large amounts of variable debt during the pandemic. Photo: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg NewsThe eye-watering price of interest-rate hedges could push more property owners to put up a “For Sale” sign. Lenders in the U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market and banks usually require borrowers to hedge their interest-rate risk when they take out a variable-rate loan.

[1/2] David Hunt President and CEO, PGIM, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. As Wall Street money managers, banking executives and pension fund managers gathered at the Milken Institute Global Conference, the main topic over cocktails on Sunday night and in conference rooms the following morning was JPMorgan Chase & Co's (JPM.N) purchase of First Republic Bank. Policymakers, executives and investors at the conference said constrained lending as a result of banking sector regulation could choke off credit to the economy. Nevertheless, betting against bank stocks has been a profitable endeavor this year, which has seen the high-profile failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, in addition to First Republic and a state-engineered rescue of Credit Suisse by the Swiss government. The KBW Regional Banking Index, which fell 2.7% on Monday, is down almost 23.6% year-to-date, while First Republic’s shares are off 97% since January.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

☆ The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.

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