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Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.
Persons: , we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent
Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.
Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells
The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."
Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps
Stocks were higher on Tuesday after PPI showed wholesale inflation was less than expected in July. Investors are now bracing for the consumer inflation reading due out on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks were up on Tuesday after the producer price index for July showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that producer prices increased 0.1% last month compared to estimates of 0.2%. The cooler-than-expected reading should boost optimism for consumer prices to show a decline in inflation when the consumer price index is released on Wednesday.
Persons: , Chris Zaccarelli, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Elon Musk Organizations: PPI, Investors, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Depot, Bank of America, Starbucks, Trump Media, Elon
New York CNN —Stocks tumbled Thursday after fresh data stoked fears that the US economy is weakening as interest rates stay at a 23-year high. Wage growth is running at a cooler pace and the unemployment rate is now at its highest point in more than two years, at 4.1%. Investors will get their next look at the state of the economy on Friday morning from the July jobs report. Economists polled by FactSet project a net gain of 175,000 jobs — a touch below the average for the past three months — and for the unemployment rate to hold steady. Powell said Wednesday that any significant weakening in the job market would be concerning.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, , Jerome, Powell, , Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Independent, Alliance, , Fed, Investors Locations: New York
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Wednesday as investors weighed the latest corporate earnings reports, including strong results from Meta Platforms. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.6%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 30 points, or 0.1%. In extended trading, Meta Platforms rallied 7% on stronger-than-expected second quarter results and upbeat guidance. Stocks are coming off a winning session that saw the S&P 500 rally 1.58% for its best day since February.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Meta, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Meta Platforms, Arm Holdings, Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Nvidia, Devices, VanEck Semiconductor, Apple, Dow, Intel, Booking Holdings, Moderna
Encouraging inflation data stoked optimism that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September. That changed Friday, as encouraging inflation data injected new life into the rally. Advertisement"Next week we expect [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell to set the table for future rate cuts, speaking confidently about progress bringing inflation down. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in September. The market also forecasts high chances that the Fed will slash rates by up to 75 basis points through December.
Persons: Russell, , Jerome, Powell, David Donabedian, Chris Zaccarelli, Dexcom Organizations: Federal, Service, PCE, CIBC Private Wealth, Reserve, Independent, Alliance Locations: Here's,
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew at 2.8% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter. Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:AdvertisementMeanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%.
Persons: Stocks, , Mike Owens, Dan Ives, Chris Zaccarelli, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Traders, Investors, Federal Reserve, Saxo, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Securities, West Texas Locations: China, Here's
Stocks edged higher on Thursday ahead of PCE inflation data set to be released on Friday. Jobless claims rose less that expected last week, with 233,000 people seeking unemployment benefits. AdvertisementUS stocks edged higher on Thursday as traders assessed corporate earnings and waited on new inflation data to help inform rate-cut bets heading into the second half of 2024. AdvertisementOn the macro front, jobless claims were lower than expected, declining by 6,000 to 233,000 for the week ending June 22. Finally, traders are preparing to digest the latest personal consumption expenditures data, which is the Fed preferred inflation measure.
Persons: Walgreen, , they've, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Micron, Service, Nvidia, Walgreens, Federal Reserve, Here's
On average, the S & P 500 is usually up 2% 65 days before the first cut from the central bank following a hiking cycle, according to data from Strategas. But it's usually down by 1.5% 65 days after that initial rate reduction, implying that stocks may not be off to the races after the big announcement. In 1974, for example, the S & P 500 was down more than 8% in the 65 days prior and off by more than 25% in the same period following the cut. But in 1989, the broad index was up more than 12% in the 65 days preceding the rate reduction and still higher by more than 9% in the period after. Fed funds futures indicate a chance of at least one rate cut as early as September, with the potential for a second at the last meeting of the year in December, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool .
Persons: Ryan Grabinski, Chris Zaccarelli, Grabinski Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Independent
The stock market rally wobbled on Thursday as indexes traded mixed ahead of the May nonfarm payroll report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Bank of America said last week that a reading of 125,000-175,000 would be a Goldilocks zone that could kickstart a fresh rally in the stock market. On Thursday, JPMorgan strategists laid out the three scenarios that could catalyze a sell-off in stocks this summer, one of which surprise in any upcoming employment report. The retail-trading icon scheduled a live stream on his YouTube channel for Friday, helping to send GameStop stock as much as 41% higher.
Persons: Keith Gill's, , Chris Zaccarelli, Keith Organizations: GameStop, Service, Bank of America, JPMorgan, YouTube, AMC, Apple Locations: obsessing
Interest rate cuts are also more likely, after the first-quarter GDP figures were revised lower. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The lack of surprises in the Personal Consumption Expenditures index was welcomed by investors, as it reinforced the odds of an interest rate cut this year. Earlier this week, first quarter GDP data was revised down on softer consumer spending, adding more reason for why the Fed may eventually have to cut interest rates down. Futures markets indicate at least one rate cut to occur as soon as September.
Persons: Stocks, , Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Treasury, Independent
The Dow has fallen more than 1,000 points over the last three days alone — and there’s no sign of the negative momentum letting up. The Dow opened lower by 367 points, or 0.9%, Thursday morning. The S&P 500 was down 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2% as lackluster earnings results from Salesforce (CRM) worried investors. That comes after a bad Wednesday where all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 closed lower. This week’s downturn has been fueled by a range of factors, including earnings and stronger-than-expected economic data.
Persons: Dow, Bonds, , , Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Independent Locations: New York
Stocks are riding high heading into Nvidia's earnings results after the market close Wednesday. U.S. stock market benchmarks have been hovering near all-time highs. But Nvidia will test the sustainability of recent market highs given its huge size in broad market indexes, as well as its influence over investor psychology. Consider that the Jensen Huang-led company is in more than 6,000 long-only institutional funds, and in just 21 short-only funds, according to data from S & P Capital IQ. Beat and raise Many investors expect a strong showing from Nvidia will keep markets on their recent upward ascent.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Sam Stovall, Stovall, CFRA's Stovall, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Kumar, , Blackwell, Huang, Zachary Hill, Hill, We've, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, CFRA, Microsoft, Investments, Independent
The S & P 500 broke above 5,300, also for the first time. The S & P 500 has notched record close after record close in 2024. This quarter, the top-performing S & P 500 sector is utilities, higher by 9%, followed by communication services, up by 4%. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each closed out a fourth straight week of gains. Sustaining all-time highs Nvidia's earnings will also be a key catalyst at a time when technicians are watching to see whether stocks can sustain the record levels they reached this week.
Persons: what's, they're, Jay Woods, hadn't, Piper Sandler's Harsh Kumar, Kumar, Jensen Huang, Blackwell, Zachary Hill, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Woods, Katie Stockton, Stockton, TJX Cos, Raymond James Thursday, Ralph Lauren Friday, Nick Wells Organizations: Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Freedom Capital, Dow, Nasdaq, Independent, Alto Networks, Devices, Target, Chicago, PMI, New, . Kansas City Fed, Intuit Locations: Stockton, . Kansas
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 40,000 for the first time ever Thursday. Stocks are on a record-setting run after a soft April inflation reading, with the S&P 500 extending gains after a record close on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 40,000 for the first time ever on Thursday, with stocks extending gains following Wednesday's cooler inflation reading for April. Advertisement"The overall trend looks reasonably good," Williams said regarding inflation during an interview with Reuters. AdvertisementHere's where US indexes stood at 11:00 a.m. on Thursday:Here's what else is going on today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: Stocks, , John Lynch, Dow, Tom Barkin, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Williams, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Service, Federal Reserve, Comerica Wealth Management, Reuters, Labor Department, GameStop, AMC, Here's
Major indexes were slightly higher after the data as investors assessed the impact on rate cut outlooks. April's producer price index data beat estimates, gaining 0.5% for the month against 0.3% consensus estimates. The PPI data comes a day before Wednesday's consumer price index and will give investors a broader frame of reference. If CPI data is equally hot, the stuttering stock rally could face even more negative consequences. The 10-year Treasury briefly topped 4.5% after the PPI data before slipping by about one basis point to 4.465.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Chris Zaccarelli, Keith Gill Organizations: Service, PPI, Independent, Federal, GameStop, AMC, Treasury, Here's
Here's why Thursday's post-GDP sell-off may be overdone
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks sold off Thursday aHoweverfter the latest economic data came in weaker than expected, but some observers say that the reaction was overdone. While the headline GDP number missed expectations, it nevertheless showed economic growth the Fed could take in stride, they say. He noted that the core parts of GDP, such as consumption growth and residential growth, were "quite good." "Stagflation is a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation," Nick continued. "I think the earnings backdrop has been very supportive," Lee told CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Thursday.
Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, Chris Zaccarelli, Brian Nick, Nick, we're, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, Treasury, Macro, Wolfe Research Locations: U.S
Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast GDP growth would come in at 2.4%. Tech tumbleThe lackluster GDP added further pressure to an already-tense market contending with concerns over a pullback in growth among technology earnings. "This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting," wrote Chris Zaccarelli, investment chief at Independent Advisor Alliance. Investors are hoping the PCE report, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will show an improvement in pricing pressures after the March consumer inflation report came in hotter than expected. — Brian Evans8:58 a.m.: 10-year Treasury yield jumps to highest level since NovemberThe 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.7% following the GDP report, hitting its highest level since November.
Persons: Johannes Eisele, Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Meta, Thierry Wizman, UnitedHealth, Alex Harring, Mark Zuckerberg's, Hakyung Kim, Fred Imbert, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Min, — Brian Evans, — Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty, Dow Jones, Caterpillar, IBM, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Federal, Traders, Meta, Business Machines, FX, Macquarie, Microsoft, Amazon, Merck, York Stock Exchange, Independent, Alliance, Investors, Treasury, Gross
New York CNN —US stocks sank Thursday morning after the latest GDP report showed that US economic growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, a much weaker pace than expected. “This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday morning. Economic growth appears to be floating back down to earth after notching a very strong second half of 2023. GDP grew by 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Those sticky inflation rates have pushed investors to slash their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Persons: Dow, , Chris Zaccarelli, They’re, It’s, stagflation, Jamie Dimon, “ Stagflation, , we’ve, Ben Carlson Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Fed, Economic, of New, JPMorgan, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Tech, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon Locations: New York, of New York
That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.
Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, , , Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, ,
Dow tumbles more than 400 points on hot inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York CNN —Stocks tumbled on Tuesday after fresh data revealed that inflation eased somewhat but stayed stubborn in January. That comes after the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday notched a record high close, while the S&P 500 retreated from its record high. The Dow slid 490 points, or 1.3%, Tuesday morning after falling more than 500 points at its session lows. The Consumer Price Index revealed that prices rose by 3.1% for the 12 months ended in January, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Tuesday. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNN in an exclusive interview published Monday that he doesn’t see the Fed cutting rates until the summer.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, , Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, Chris Zaccarelli, Raphael Bostic, Carl Icahn Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Traders, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Fed, Independent, Alliance, Atlanta Fed, CNN, JetBlue, Hasbro Locations: New York
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 15, 2023. Target (TGT.N) advanced 17.6% as the big-box retailer forecast fourth-quarter profit largely above Wall Street expectations on easing supply-chain costs. The bright outlook also lifted shares of other retailers, while the S&P 500 consumer staples index (.SPLRCS), which houses Target, jumped 0.7%. U.S. producer prices eased more than expected amid a sharp drop in gasoline costs, providing further evidence that inflation was trending lower. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.13-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Chris Zaccarelli, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Biden, JD.com, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Sruthi Shankar, Amruta, Shinjini Ganguli, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Target, Reuters, U.S, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, U.S . House, Senate, Republican, Disney, ValueAct, Sirius XM, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. The rally was due to rising investor belief that the Federal Reserve will now be less likely to hike interest rates at future meetings. LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI-SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK“Today's Core CPI print was below expectations. "The Fed will not want to step back from its hawkish stance yet; the annual core rate at 4% is still some way away from target. THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT HEDGE FUND GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK"We're happy to see both headline and core CPI come in lower than expected.
Persons: Hannah Beier, ” BEN JEFFERY, GREG BASSUK, ” “, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, we’ll, ” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, LINDSAY ROSNER, GOLDMAN, ” MATTHEW MISKIN, JOHN, , ” STUART COLE, Kashkari, Powell, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, it's, THOMAS HAYES, OLIVER PURSCHE, It’s, Organizations: Reading, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Markets, BMO, Reserve, CPI, ALLIANCE, Fed, Global Finance, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WALTHAM, MA, WISCONSIN, CHARLOTTE, GOLDMAN SACHS, JOHN HANCOCK, BOSTON, LONDON
US stocks climbed Monday as the Fed announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Bond yields ticked lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping 11 basis-points. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors took in the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Fed officials chose to keep interest rates level at their November policy meeting, in-line with investors' expectations. The Fed funds rate is still in the 5.25%-5.5% range, the highest interest rates have been since 2001.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Service, Nasdaq Locations: US, Here's
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