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☆ Investors may be too bullish on chip stocks. This options strategy can hedge against a pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That bullish consensus makes this former CBOT pit trader take pause, and I believe now is the time to hedge some semiconductor exposure. I want to use put options in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) to mitigate downside risk. That came in the wake of better-than-expected results from contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor , which counts NVDA as one of its biggest customers. Lastly, I want to consider the technicals setup, as when emotion gets injected into the marketplace, technical typically take over. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Persons: Jensen Huang, ASML, SMH, Kilburg Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Chicago

☆ Corn hits 3-month high; soy, wheat climb on global crop weather woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wheat futures hit a one-week high on renewed concerns over dry weather in Russia, the world's biggest wheat supplier. In Argentina, corn stunt disease spread by leaf-cutter insects and adverse weather prompted the Buenos Aires grains exchange to slash its estimate for Argentina's 2023/24 corn harvest by 3 millions metric tons to 46.5 tons. In wheat, Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy cut its forecast for the country's crop to 91 million metric tons from 93 million tons and its wheat exports to 50.5 million metric tons from 52 million tons. Wheat futures jumped as weather forecasts showed the region getting virtually no rain in the coming two weeks. Managed money funds held a net short position in CBOT wheat futures at the beginning of 2024 because of a strong dollar and slow U.S. demand, Zuzolo said.

Persons: Jim Niewold, Susan Stroud, Mike Zuzolo, Nature, Zuzolo Organizations: Chicago Board of Trade, Global, Analytics Locations: Loda , Illinois, Brazil, Russia, Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, Argentina, Buenos Aires, South America

Money managers through Nov. 28 extended their K.C. wheat net short to near 50,000 futures and options contracts, their largest since May 2019 and among their biggest-ever shorts. Grain futures sank in the week ended Nov. 28, including a 3.2% decline in CBOT March corn and a 1.8% slide in March wheat . CBOT March wheat found contract lows on Nov. 27 but touched three-week highs by Friday, presumably motivated by short covering. Funds in that week cut their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 67,562 contracts from 81,587 a week earlier.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Corn, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Brazil

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Nov 28 (Reuters) - It is rare that U.S. corn supplies build in a marketing year while soybean supplies slip, but that is exactly what is happening in 2023-24, keeping soybean prices relatively elevated versus corn. The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegs total U.S. corn supplies in 2023-24 to rise 10% on the year, while soybean inventory is seen shrinking 3%. U.S. corn versus soybean supply: Year-on-yearThe 2007-08 rise in corn and fall in soybean supplies was policy-driven, and the only other recent, directionally similar year was 2003-04, when the U.S. soybean crop fell victim to rare, widespread pest issues as well as dry weather. USDA’s long-term projections issued earlier this month suggest just that, pegging 2024 U.S. corn acres at 91 million and soybeans at 87 million versus 83.6 million in 2023. Interestingly, USDA in the couple of years leading up to 2007-08 had also overestimated U.S. soybean acres in March and undershot corn.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Agriculture, USDA, Crop Watch, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, North Dakota

Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options rose to a 23-week high of 108,176 futures and options contracts as of Nov. 21 versus 89,271 a week earlier. That is funds’ most bearish corn stance since June 2020. wheat futures and optionsFunds’ Minneapolis wheat views remain near record-bearish, though they were slight net buyers in the week ended Nov. 21. On Monday, CBOT corn and all U.S. hard and soft wheat futures hit contract lows during trading, including the lowest price for most-active corn since December 2020. Open interest in CBOT soybean meal futures and options surged 4% during the week to another record of 671,039 contracts.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, South America, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, K.C, U.S, Brazil

Money managers through Nov. 14 expanded their net long in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 131,404 contracts from 111,987 a week earlier, also on new longs. January meal futures surged 21% during those five weeks and nearly 4% in the most recent week, reaching their highest ever levels for the date. The pre-2023 record open interest in meal futures and options was 594,016 contracts set in mid-2018 after drought significantly cut down top meal exporter Argentina’s soybean crop. March CBOT wheat futures rose fractionally during the week, and funds trimmed nearly 3,000 contracts from their huge net short, resulting in 89,271 futures and options contracts. wheat, funds have been very heavy sellers of spring wheat futures since late July.

Persons: Gustavo Bonato, Soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Campo Verde, Mato Grosso, Brazil, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, United States, U.S, Kansas City, Minneapolis

Additionally, tightness in U.S. soybean meal supplies related to Argentina’s extreme crop shortfall earlier this year has lent significant support to soybean and soymeal futures lately. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsIt was funds’ biggest net buying week in soybeans since early April, and both new longs and short-covering played an instrumental role. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsThe new managed money meal long is the biggest since mid-March and the largest ever for the date. CBOT soybean meal on Monday traded up the daily limit at one point, reaching the most-active contract’s highest since mid-March and notching another contract high for December meal. Most-active CBOT soybeans on Monday hit their highest price since Aug. 31, and most-active corn futures rose 2.9%, their biggest single-day percentage gain since July 24.

Persons: Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Commodity Futures Trading Commission, China, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE, Ill, Brazil, Chicago

USDA pegged U.S. corn yield at 174.9 bushels per acre, up from 173 last month and above nearly all estimates, which on average predicted a slight increase. It was the most bearish corn yield in a November report since 2017. That could negatively impact Brazil’s second corn production, as was the case after the 2015-16 El Nino, rerouting corn demand to the United States. USDA left Brazil’s 2023-24 soy crop unchanged at 163 million metric tons this month, but it raised the prior crop by 2 million tons to 158 million, suggesting exports are outperforming prior crop expectations. However, USDA has flashed 2.85 million tons (105 million bushels) of U.S. soybean sales so far this week, mostly to China and unknown destinations.

Persons: Dane Rhys, El, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, USDA, El Nino, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Deerfield , Ohio, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Brazil, United States, China

The trade’s idea of corn yield lines up with past similar years. Other than 2023, the last three times that soybean yields fell in August, September and October were 2008, 2003 and 1999. Crop Watch results generally support these predictions since the 11-field soybean yield ended up close to the season’s lowest score while corn yields bounced a bit at the end. It has been 15 years since the agency lowered Brazil’s soy crop between October and November. 2024Without severe crop losses in Brazil’s soy or corn this year, U.S. supplies, especially corn, could balloon in 2024-25.

Persons: USDA’s, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, South, Reuters, SOUTH AMERICA, Consultancy, USDA, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, USDA, Mato Grosso, Argentina

Managed money net position in CBOT soybean meal futures and optionsMost-active CBOT soymeal futures jumped 8.6% in the week ended Oct. 24 on increasing international demand for U.S. soybean meal, tightening up the domestic market. Money managers flipped back to a net long in CBOT soybean futures and options through Oct. 24, snapping a seven-week selling streak. The new net long of 7,753 contracts compares with a net short of 1,984 in the prior week, which was funds’ first net short in soybeans since April 2020. Money managers cut their net long in CBOT soyoil futures and options to 11,523 contracts from 20,729 a week earlier. Spring wheat futures are off 25% from their July top.

Persons: Jim Young, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Minooka , Illinois, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Argentina, Minneapolis, Kansas City

National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Monday revealed U.S. soybean oil stocks among NOPA members totaled 1.108 billion pounds as of Sept. 30. A mid-year drawdown of U.S. soyoil stocks is common, but this year’s pace is unusual. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects total domestic soybean oil use at a record 27.45 billion pounds in 2023-24, which began Oct. 1. The most actively traded Chicago soybean oil futures are at three-year lows for the date, down 20% from a year ago. Most-active CBOT soybean oil futuresRISING IMPORTSU.S. soybean oil stocks may be falling, but both the reduction in exports and influx of vegetable oil from overseas have been somewhat offsetting.

Persons: Jason Lee, Stocks, Karen Braun, Miral Organizations: Industry, Trade Co, REUTERS, Rights, Oilseed Processors, U.S . Department of Agriculture, NOPA, U.S, Higher, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qufu, Shandong province, China, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, United States, USDA

During that week, money managers cut their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 112,691 contracts from 159,433 a week earlier, marking their biggest round of net buying since late July. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsDecember corn futures had reached their U.S. harvest lows by mid-September in 2016, 2018 and 2019, and so far, the harvest low for December 2023 corn sits on Sept. 19 at $4.67-3/4 per bushel. Money managers have not held a bearish soy view since April 2020 but have come close a couple times. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsHowever, overall speculators’ soybean net short was preserved through Oct. 10 as other reportable traders were only slight net buyers during the week. That small net short was established in the prior week for the first time since March 2020.

Persons: Gleb Garanich, Wheat, Karen Braun, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., U.S . Department, Agriculture’s, USDA, U.S . Renewable, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bilohiria, Khmelnytskyi, Ukraine, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

In the week ended Oct. 3, money managers slashed their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 5,001 contracts from 30,058 a week earlier. New shorts and exiting longs both played a role, and money managers have not held a net short in beans since April 2020. Money managers extended their sizable net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 98,788 contracts from 96,384 a week earlier. CBOT corn futures added about 1% late last week, touching $4.99 per bushel on Friday, their highest since Aug. 29. Money managers maintain comfortably bearish CBOT corn views, though they trimmed their net short through Oct. 3 by about 9,200 to 159,433 futures and options contracts.

Persons: ’, Soymeal, Karen Braun Organizations: China, Futures, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

This marks their biggest net short in corn since August 2020, and it nearly ties 2016 for the date's most bearish corn view. The move went against expectations for slight fund buying, as most-active CBOT corn futures had drifted fractionally higher for the week. Funds maintained their huge net short in CBOT wheat futures and options, which is the second largest for the time of year after 2016. CONTINUED SELLINGFriday marked several milestones for CBOT grain and oilseed futures, the most significant being a 6.4% dive in CBOT wheat futures, the biggest single-day decline since March 2022. Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were above expectations but similar to the past two years, though soybean futures hit three-month lows on Friday.

Persons: Raquel Cunha, Friday’s, soyoil, Karen Braun, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Tepexpan, Mexico, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Kansas

In the week ended Sept. 12, money managers expanded their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 134,909 contracts from 93,913 a week earlier. That marked funds’ most bearish corn stance since mid-August 2020, when CBOT corn was trading below $3.50 per bushel. Most-active corn futures have traded below $5 since Aug. 21, and they fell 2% in the week ended Sept. 12. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCorn dropped to $4.73-1/2 per bushel on Sept. 12, tying mid-August for the lowest price since December 2020. Most-active CBOT wheat shed 2% in the week ended Sept. 12, dropping to the lowest price since December 2020.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Corn, Bean, soyoil, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Carbon Solutions, REUTERS, Rights, U.S . Department, Agriculture, Futures, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Defiance, Shelby County , Iowa, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, soymeal, Ukraine, Russia

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures this week hit their lowest levels in almost three years, yet relative to demand, exportable global wheat supplies are expected to approach historic minimums by mid-2024. Russia’s early 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent wheat prices to new highs as the two countries account for nearly 30% of global exports. Wheat stocks-to-use in major global exportersThe distinction between global stocks and stocks among exporting countries is important because top wheat grower China carries about half the world’s supply but trades a relatively small amount. A 13.5% stocks-to-use is the second lowest on record behind 13.1% in 2007-08, another extremely volatile time for wheat prices. A year ago, exportable wheat stocks-to-use were predicted to reach 15-year lows by mid-2023, and two years ago, mid-2022 was expected to feature all-time lows.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, European Union, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukraine, China, Argentina, Australia, Canada, UKRAINE, Russia, Black

Speculators responded by boosting their bullish Chicago soybean bets, which they have held for more than three years, and easing bearishness in corn futures. Most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% during the period but stayed below $5 per bushel throughout. Last week’s rise in oilseed optimism extended to the soy products, as CBOT soybean meal futures increased more than 4% and soybean oil added 2.5%. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures lost more than 4% in the week ended Aug. 29. Corn futures dropped 1.1% over the last three sessions, soybeans lost 1.7%, soymeal lost 3% and soyoil was mostly unchanged.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, soymeal, soyoil, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Funds, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Dixon , Nebraska, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, Mato Grosso

That price difference in 2016 arguably led to the overproduction of U.S. soybeans in the following two years, moderating soybean futures. The bean-corn ratio was also elevated in late 2013, a year which has been frequently compared with 2023, particularly for corn futures. Corn futures were declining at a faster rate than soybeans as U.S. corn supplies recovered significantly from the 2012 drought. 2024 ON HORIZONNext year’s December corn and November soybean futures already indicate heavier U.S. soybean acres for 2024 after declining 4.5% in 2023, hitting a three-year low. Prices were low by early 2015, causing both U.S. corn and soybean acres to contract that year.

Persons: Karen Braun Organizations: U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S, China, Brazil, United States

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsAn increase in gross corn shorts was the dominant theme for a third consecutive week, though funds also cut longs in the latest two weeks. Most-active CBOT corn futures had dropped 4.7% in the week ended Aug. 15. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsOpen interest in CBOT corn and soybean futures and options has not fluctuated much in the last couple of months. But open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options has surged 29% over the last seven weeks, directionally seasonal but more than double the recent average rate during the period. Most-active corn futures on Wednesday had hit their lowest levels since Dec. 31, 2020, though soybeans on Friday traded to their highest levels since July 31.

Persons: Daniel Acker, bearishness, ’ bullish, Wheat, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Crop, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tiskilwa , Illinois, U.S, Rights NAPERVILLE , Illinois

In the week ended Aug. 8, money managers established a net short position in CBOT corn futures and options of 26,656 contracts compared with the previous week’s net long of 16,741 contracts. Money managers’ net long in CBOT soybean futures and options in late July was at a seven-year high for the date, but funds have sold aggressively in the last couple weeks. Most-active CBOT wheat drifted fractionally higher in the week ended Aug. 8. Wheat futures tumbled 4.5% in the last three sessions and finished at $6.26-3/4 per bushel, their lowest settle in two months. Funds reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 4,497 contracts from 7,592 a week earlier, and they slashed their K.C.

Persons: Dane Rhys, Karen Braun, Chris Reese Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ravenna , Ohio, U.S, NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City

Debates over U.S. corn and soybean yield potential have persisted all summer following one of the driest Junes on record. Soy yield’s range of 1.5 bpa is a six-year low, well below the 2.9-bpa average, raising the risk of surprise. The trade nailed corn yield last August, coming within 0.3% of USDA’s figure, analysts’ best performance since 2001. I posted a Twitter poll midday on Thursday asking which yield surprise could be most likely on Friday: corn high, corn low, soybeans high or soybeans low. After about two hours and 555 votes, corn yield surprising high was the clear leader with 40% of the vote.

Persons: Karl Plume, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Spiritwood , North Dakota, U.S, Karl Plume NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago

But new-crop export demand has started to pick up and, despite expectations for supportive weather, U.S. soybean production is far from settled given this season’s hardships. Grains have performed significantly worse over that period with December corn and CBOT September wheat down 13% and 17%, respectively. That has lifted soybeans’ price advantage versus corn to the highest August levels in three years. CBOT November soybeans to December corn ratioIn the last decade, November soybeans strengthened throughout August only twice - in 2020 and 2013. U.S. soybean export demand for 2023-24 has recently been lackluster, but U.S. beans are now cheaper than Brazilian ones for shipment to China in the later months of 2023, which should support further U.S. sales.

Persons: Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago, Midwest, Iowa, Illinois, China

Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT corn futures had risen almost 6% during the week, though CBOT wheat surged over 13%, including a limit-up move on July 24. Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsGrain futures did not sustain their strength last week, and funds may have already abandoned bullish corn bets as of Friday’s close. Corn dropped over 6% in the last three sessions and commodity funds commodity funds were pegged as net sellers of 33,000 futures contracts. CBOT wheat futures still maintain some of their recent Ukraine war premium, having shed 7.4% between Wednesday and Friday. Funds were seen as sellers of 24,000 wheat futures during this period.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Funds, European Union, Sunday, U.S . Department of Agriculture, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Ukrainian, Russian, Ukraine, European, U.S, China, Mexico . U.S, Brazil

Although those factors caused Chicago corn and wheat futures to surge, speculators have held on to their bearish views thus far. In the week ended July 18, money managers reduced their net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 46,926 contracts from 63,052 a week earlier. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCBOT December corn futures rallied 6.6% through Tuesday, July 18, though the week included a drop to new yearly lows after the Department of Agriculture expanded the U.S. corn crop outlook. Money managers’ net short in CBOT wheat futures and options has barely changed in the latest three weeks despite a 4% decline in most-active futures during the stretch. Money managers increased their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-week high of 95,814 contracts through July 18 from 82,748 a week earlier.

Persons: Soymeal, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Department of Agriculture, Wednesday, Traders, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, U.S, soyoil

The weather story lingered again on Wednesday, but harsher threats from Russia thrust the grain deal into the spotlight. Most-active CBOT wheat futures surged 8.5% on Wednesday, wheat’s largest single-day percentage rise since Feb. 28, 2022, just days after Russia invaded Ukraine. Money managers held a modest net short of 63,052 corn futures and options contracts by that date. Prior to that, grain deal uncertainty failed to spark bullish interest as Ukrainian export volumes far exceeded original expectations. Had the Jan. 3 high stood, it would have been November beans’ first annual high set in January since 1999.

Persons: reconnection, Karen Braun, Matthw Lewis Organizations: Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Ukraine, Chicago, Russia, India, U.S, Moscow, Western

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