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"Look at which tax cuts were getting the most focus on the campaign trail. A traditional GOP tax policy might be thought of as favoring business tax cuts. "The top priority is extending the Trump tax cuts and the signature part of his program. Notably, House Speaker Mike Johnson has voiced support for the traditional view of funding tax cuts through economic growth. Individual tax cuts versus Social Security, business tax breaksHistory shows that when it comes to the battle between individual and business tax cuts, contrary to popular perception, individual tax issues are always politically dominant issue.
Persons: Donald Trump, Mnuchin, Stamper, Dustin Stamper, Grant Thornton, Rohit Kumar, Mitch McConnell, Trump, Kumar, Mike Crapo, Mike Johnson, It's, PwC, Biden, John Paulson, Paulson, Elect Trump, Joe Manchin, Kamala Harris, Elon Musk Organizations: Van Andel, Trump, GOP, Representatives, Idaho Republican, Senate, Capitol, Social Security, Child Tax, Corporations, New York Times, Republican, Social, Tax, Republicans, Democrats, West, CBO, IRS, Defense, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C Locations: Grand Rapids , Michigan, U.S, Idaho, West Virginia, Washington ,
Millions of Americans risk losing subsidies next year that help them pay for health insurance following President-elect Donald Trump’s election win and Republicans’ victory in the Senate. Even Democratic control of the House likely won’t save the subsidies, he added. As of Thursday afternoon, House Republicans had won 209 seats, just nine short of the majority, according to an NBC News tracker. In 2024, more than 20 million people got health insurance through the ACA, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. “This means fewer people will know their rights under the law and many will not sign up for ACA health care plans.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, , Trump, Chris Meekins, Raymond James, , , Meekins, Cynthia Cox, Cox, ” Cox, Lawrence Gostin, ” Gostin, Gostin Organizations: Republicans ’, Senate, American, Republicans, White House, GOP, HHS, NBC, Centers, Medicare, Services, Congressional, Trump, CBO, Congress, O’Neill Institute for National, Global Health Law, Georgetown University, ACA Locations: Southern, KFF
"I think all roads lead to inflation," Jones told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. "I'm long gold. I'm long bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously underowned, so I'm long commodities. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold, YTD The CBO expects deficits will hit $2.8 trillion by 2034, up from $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's, That's, Robin Hood, Donald Trump, Bitcoin Organizations: Trump, Nasdaq, Tudor Investment, Robin, Robin Hood Foundation, Congressional, Treasury, Federal, Metrics Locations: U.S
"We find President Trump's campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances," the CRFB budget group said in a blog post. Social Security trust funds are set to be exhausted by Fiscal Year 2034, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "If you cut income taxes and cut payroll taxes, then you're going to have an impact on Social Security," Freese said. "I don't believe the Trump campaign is looking to undermine Social Security," said Andrew Biggs, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former principal deputy commissioner of the Social Security Administration. "And likewise, Social Security is so big, any changes to Social Security will affect other things."
Persons: Trump's, Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Leavitt, Kamala Harris, Maria Freese, Freese, Harris, Andrew Biggs, Biggs Organizations: Republican, CNBC, Social Security, Democratic, Social, Congressional, Trump, National Committee, Preserve Social Security, Medicare, American Enterprise Institute, Social Security Administration, Security Locations: Monday's
Trump's proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances, a nonpartisan budget group is warning. The group predicts Trump's agenda would push up Social Security insolvency by 3 years. Harris' proposals would have little impact on Social Security's insolvency timeline, the group says. AdvertisementThe Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees estimated that the fund would run out a year later, in 2035. President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term," Leavitt said in the statement.
Persons: Harris, , Trump, Trump's, wouldn't, nominee's, that's, Karoline Leavitt, Leavitt, Kamala Harris, CRFB's, Marc Goldwein, Xers, they're Organizations: Social, Service, Federal, Social Security, Congressional, Office, Security, Trump, Republican, Business, Democratic, Washington Post
The Biden administration rang up a budget deficit topping $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, up more than 8% from the previous year and the third highest on record, the Treasury Department said Friday. Even with a modest surplus in September, the shortfall totaled $1.833 trillion, $138 billion higher than a year ago. The deficit came despite record receipts of $4.9 trillion, which fell well short of outlays of $6.75 trillion. Government debt has swelled to $35.7 trillion, an increase of $2.3 trillion from the end of fiscal 2023. Interest expense for the year totaled $1.16 trillion, the first time that figure has topped the trillion-dollar level.
Organizations: Biden, Treasury Department, Social Security, Treasury, Congressional, Office
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe September jobs report was really good for the Fed, says Douglas Holtz-EakinJason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School professor and former CEA chair, and Douglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum president and former CBO director, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the September jobs report, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Douglas Holtz, Jason Furman Organizations: Harvard Kennedy School, CEA, Action
Here is a fact check:CrimeTrump claimed, “Our crime rate’s going through the roof.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. Facts First: Trump did express uncertainty about the number, but his “like 60 million or something” claim is false. They take ‘em out, and they bring them to the United States.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is baseless. He said, “With Ukraine, so we’re in for $250 billion and they’re in for about $71 billion.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. But Trump’s claim that the US has committed or provided far more aid than Europe is not true regardless.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Elon Musk, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jeff Asher, ” Anna Harvey, , we’ve, , Biden, Gary Griggs, Griggs, Harris, Harris “, ” Trump, wasn’t, Alejandro Mayorkas, Breitbart, ” Roberto Briceño, Venezuela’s, León, Joe Biden, ” Michelle Mittelstadt, can’t, Steven Cheung, Congo ’ Trump, Patrick Muyaya Katembwe, ” Serge Mombouli, Barack Obama’s, Obama, Obama’s, We’ll, Ukraine Trump, Europe Trump, Trump’s, Mike Pompeo, ” Pompeo, China, you’re, , Iran haven’t, ” Matt Smith, Biden’s, Smith, Ali Vaez, Ronald Reagan’s, Barack Obama, George W, they’d, Scott Gottlieb, ” Gottlieb, General Merrick Garland, Musk, Alvin Bragg’s, Matthew Colangelo, Colangelo, Bragg, CNN’s Tami Luhby, William Montes Organizations: Washington CNN, Republican, Democratic, Public, New York University, CNN, Major Cities Chiefs Association, Biden, Global, Trump, NASA, Meteorological Organization, University of California, Oceanic, Fox News, The New York, White, Homeland, Central, , Border, Venezuelan, of, Patrol, Republicans, Migration, Institute, Breitbart, Congo, PAC, Central America Trump, Obama, Customs Enforcement, Policy Institute, ICE, El Salvador, Electoral, Ukraine, Kiel Institute, European Union, European Automobile Manufacturers ’ Association, State, Americas, Crisis, Federal, Defense Department, Food and Drug Administration, FDA, Justice Department, New Locations: Trump’s, Santa Cruz, Gulf of Mexico, Florida, Mar, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, United States, Mexico, Venezuela, “ Venezuela, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Africa, Republic of, Washington, Europe, Ukraine, Germany, Kiel, , EU, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, China, that’s, Kpler, Malaysia, Afghanistan, Asia, Fulton County , Georgia, Manhattan, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCBO Director on growing U.S. debt: Even modestly low interest rates won't change fiscal trajectoryCBO Director Phillip Swagel joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the nation's budget and economic outlook, impact of the Fed's interest rate policy, challenges to bringing down debt, and more.
Persons: Phillip Swagel
Yet, in a year of elections around the world, politicians are largely ignoring the problem, unwilling to level with voters about the tax increases and spending cuts needed to tackle the deluge of borrowing. In France, political turmoil has exacerbated concerns about the country’s debt, sending bond yields, or returns demanded by investors, soaring. “Many (politicians) are not willing to talk about the hard choices that are going to need to be made. Despite growing alarm over the federal government’s debt pile, neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump, the main 2024 presidential candidates, are promising fiscal discipline ahead of the election. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss triggered a collapse in the pound in 2022 when she tried to force through big tax cuts funded by increased borrowing.
Persons: ” Roger Hallam, Karen Dynan, ” Kenneth Rogoff, , don’t, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Paul Johnson, William Ruto, Liz Truss, hasn’t, Emmanuel Macron, Dynan, it’s Organizations: London CNN, Monetary Fund, Investors, Vanguard, CNN, US Treasury, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, , Congressional, CBO, Trump, Fiscal Studies, United Kingdom, Former Locations: United States, France, Germany, Kenya
Fact checking the CNN presidential debate
  + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Cnn Staff | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +69 min
CNN —President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump faced off during CNN’s presidential debate in Atlanta Thursday night. From CNN’s Daniel DaleFormer President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden debate at CNN's Atlanta studios on June 27, 2024. From CNN’s Daniel Dale and Ella NilsenFormer President Donald Trump, left, and President Joe Biden take part in the CNN presidential debate on Thursday, June 27. From CNN’s Alicia WallaceFormer President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden debate at CNN's Atlanta studios on June 27, 2024. Kpler found that China imported about 511,000 barrels per day of Iranian crude in December 2020, Trump’s last full month in office.
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In the 1960s, there were six people of working age for every retired person, according to the World Economic Forum. “What you’re seeing is increased spending on programs like Medicare and Social Security as the baby boomers are aging into those programs. And then of course, fewer workers relative to the number of people who are receiving Social Security and Medicare benefits,” said Dahl. Social Security payments still provide about 90% of income for more than a quarter of older adults in the United States, according to Social Security Agency surveys. But without intervention, the Social Security trust fund will be depleted by the mid-2030s, meaning that only a portion of retirees’ expected benefits will be paid out.
Persons: it’s, Louis, Simona Paravani, , Elon Musk, Kimberly, Clark, Mark Schneider, he’s, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump, Molly Dahl, Dahl, Eric Schmidt, ” Schmidt, Goldman Sachs, Stefano Scarpetta, Li Qiang, Juliana Liu, Joyce Jiang, Li, China’s, Xi Jinping, Biden, Max Prosecutors, haven’t, Max, Read Organizations: London CNN, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank of St, BlackRock, Disease Control, Congressional Budget Office, CBO, Social Security, Social, Social Security Agency, Google, Summit, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, OECD, ” Companies, West Chinese, CNN, EV, Prosecutors, Boeing, Max, US Justice Department, Alaska Air, Justice Department, Federal Aviation Administration Locations: Chad, Niger, Somalia, Samoa, Tonga, Tajikistan, United States, London, China, Beijing, Dalian, Canada, Beijing’s “
Burgeoning debt and deficits are threatening to make the next recession deeper while tying the hands of policymakers, according to two leading economists. The Congressional Budget Office this week revised its estimates to paint an even bleaker version of the U.S. financial picture. Teetering on trouble In fact, Rosenberg thinks the economy already is nearing or in the early stages of recession. "With budget deficits historically high relative to an economy operating at full employment, the government could be facing double-digit budget deficits when the next downturn hits." While equity markets have largely shrugged off worries over the fiscal situation, LaVorgna and Rosenberg both insist that bond investors should pay attention.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Teetering, Janet Yellen, Joseph LaVorgna, Donald Trump, LaVorgna Organizations: Congressional, Rosenberg Research, Federal, CBO, CNBC, White House, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: U.S
The national debt will keep soaring over the next 10 years, according to the CBO. The agency estimates the national debt will rise to $56 trillion by 2034. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US's $34 trillion debt mountain isn't shrinking anytime soon. The latest estimates reflect a steeper pace of government borrowing than predicted in the previous quarter.
Persons: Organizations: CBO, Service, Congressional, Office
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAt some point we'll have to address the exploding entitlement spending, says PwC's Rohit KumarKitty Richards, former Treasury official, and Rohit Kumar, former policy director for Sen. Mitch McConnell, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the CBO's $1.9 trillion federal budget deficit estimate for 2024, how tax proposals by President Biden and former President Donald Trump will impact the deficit, and more.
Persons: PwC's Rohit Kumar Kitty Richards, Rohit Kumar, Sen, Mitch McConnell, Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Treasury
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRoger Altman on national deficit: Only solution to this will involve both sides of the equationRoger Altman, Evercore founder and senior chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the CBO's new federal budget deficit projection, potential solut
Persons: Roger Altman Organizations: Evercore
Why U.S. corporate rate matters
  + stars: | 2024-05-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWhy U.S. corporate rate mattersDouglas Holtz-Eakin, American Action Forum president and former CBO director, and Jason Furman, Harvard's Kennedy School economics professor and former CEA chairman, to discuss the state of corporate tax codes, why U.S. corporate rates matters, and more.
Persons: Douglas Holtz, Jason Furman Organizations: Action, Harvard's Kennedy School
The federal IOU is now at $34.5 trillion, or about $11 trillion higher than where it stood in March 2020. Concern over such eye-popping numbers had been largely confined to partisan rancor on Capitol Hill as well as from watchdogs like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Uncharted territory for debt and deficitsIndeed, the CBO numbers are ominous, as they outline the likely path of debt and deficits. Surging budget deficits have been driving the debt, and the CBO only expects that to get worse. "The huge obvious problem is that the U.S. federal debt is now on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory," analysts at Wolfe Research said in a recent note.
Persons: Greenlee Beal, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, hasn't, Wolfe Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Wall, CBO, Union, JPMorgan Chase, Sky News, Bridgewater Associates, Financial Times, Treasury Department, Wolfe Research, U.S ., Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , U.S, Washington, Amsterdam, London, America, U.S
London CNN —The chorus of voices warning about the dangers of record US government debt is growing louder. In the past 24 hours, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, have weighed in with concerns about America’s debt pile. Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York in April 2024. Dimon acknowledged that debt-fueled government spending, including pandemic stimulus, had been one of the reasons behind robust growth in the world’s biggest economy. Debt servicing costs have also soared, on the back of higher official interest rates, leaving less money for public services.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Dimon, you’ll, Dalio, I’m, , Victor J, we’ve, ” Dimon, Liz Truss Organizations: London CNN, JPMorgan, Sky News, Treasury, Financial Times, International Monetary Fund, Congressional, Office, Bridgewater Associates, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Treasury Department, IMF, US, Federal Locations: Russia, New York, America, Covid, United, United Kingdom
New York CNN —If voters return former President Donald Trump to the White House, he’s promised to launch an unprecedented crackdown on immigration and even conduct mass deportations. Trump recently told Time that he would aim to deport 15 million to 20 million people, perhaps by using the National Guard. Even though consumer prices are no longer skyrocketing, the cumulative impact of three years of high inflation is painful. “Most Americans view high inflation and high prices as unfair. But immigration remains a major concern for voters in the 2024 election and Trump has made it a centerpiece of his campaign.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’s, Trump, , Mark Zandi, “ It’s, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, You’d, , Karoline Leavitt, Joe Biden “, ” Leavitt, , Joe Biden, Zandi, Trump’s, criminologists, Biden, Jerome Powell, Brusuelas, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, National Guard, Federal Reserve, CNN, RSM, Trump, Social Security, University of Michigan, Labor Department ., The Hamilton, , Hamilton, Security, Congressional, Office, The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution Locations: New York, China, Covid, Mexico, United States
Immigrant workers are helping boost the U.S. labor market
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Kate Rogers | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The strong jobs market has been bolstered post-pandemic by strength in the immigrant workforce in America. And as Americans age out of the labor force and birth rates remain low, economists and the Federal Reserve are touting the importance of immigrant workers for overall future economic growth. Immigrant workers made up 18.6% of the workforce last year, a new record, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Despite the U.S. adding fewer-than-expected jobs in April, the labor force participation rate for foreign-born workers ticked up slightly, to 66%. "We don't have enough workers participating in the labor force and our birth rate has dropped down 2% last year from 2022 to 2023.
Persons: Jennie Murray, Phillip Swagel, Swagel Organizations: Federal, of Labor Statistics, Workers, National Immigration, Congressional Locations: America
As Airbnb's recently appointed chief business officer, Dave Stephenson is playing a crucial role in the company's future growth plans. He's also filling another role that is critical to that growth: an Airbnb host. An avid skier and hiker, Stephenson is quick to share details of the best trails with his guests. Airbnb is also looking to expand its services, making it easier to be a host as well as a guest. That could include helping hosts facilitate check-ins or helping them get the items they need for guests, like linens.
Persons: Airbnb's, Dave Stephenson, He's, Stephenson, Brian Chesky, Chesky, Airbnb Organizations: Airbnb, CBO, Netflix Locations: Ankara, Turkiye, Amazon, Seattle , Washington, that's, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, Bavaria, Washington
In an interview with the Financial Times, CBO director Phillip Swagel said US government debt — which the Treasury Department puts at nearly $35 trillion — is on an “unprecedented” trajectory. UK government bonds, or gilts, and the pound sold off sharply, partly in response to plans by Truss to issue more debt in order to pay for tax cuts. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. He has promised to extend his 2017 tax cuts and has also spoken about reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%. “I will make the Trump tax cuts the largest tax cut in history,” he said last month at the Black Conservative Federation’s Honors Gala in South Carolina.
Persons: Phillip Swagel, Liz, , Truss, ” Swagel, Dave Ramsden, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Fitch, , Trump Organizations: London CNN, Congressional, Financial Times, Treasury Department, CNN, Bank of England, Democrats, Trump, Black Conservative, US Treasury, Federal, CBO Locations: United States, United Kingdom, South Carolina
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
"Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. The bank boosted its 2024 GDP forecast in a note on Sunday, arguing that a jump in labor force growth via elevated immigration will drive the US economy higher. "Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. Advertisement"We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth," Walker said. Advertisement"Our estimates imply that above-trend immigration will boost potential GDP growth by 0.3pp in 2024.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Ronnie Walker, Walker Organizations: Service Locations: America
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