But a Republican win yielded a higher return at 15.3%. The S&P 500 fell 9% in 2000 as the tech bubble peaked months before George W. Bush's Republican win. This could increase the chances of a Trump win — at least, that's what the market thinks. The two graphs below from a Goldman Sachs note on July 8 indicate what prediction markets perceive as each candidate's odds of winning following the debate. On that front, consumer discretionary stocks are perceived as riskier under a Trump administration due to the threat of increased tariffs.

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Persons: Morgan Stanley, George W, Barack Obama, Biden's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service, Republican, Democratic, Business, Bush's Republican, Trump, Republican Presidency, Republican House, Senate, Biden