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The stock market has always pulled back when valuations are stretched as they are now, according to Deutsche Bank macro strategist Henry Allen in a note to clients this week. "[T]urning points can happen quickly, and … when valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains," Allen noted. "[E]xamples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals." The bank cited lofty current readings in the Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio developed by economist Robert Shiller, arguing that "the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century" than it is today. "Indeed, on both the occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction."
Persons: Henry Allen, Allen, Robert Shiller, — Scott Schnipper Organizations: Deutsche Bank
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesDonald Trump's U.S. election victory has ratcheted up concerns about higher prices, prompting strategists to rethink the outlook for global bond yields and currencies. Trump's return to the White House is seen as likely to throw a wrench in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, potentially keeping an upward bias on Treasury yields. Bond yields tend to rise when market participants expect higher prices or a growing budget deficit. "Trump's election advances both possibilities as a trade war and increased fiscal spending work at cross purposes," he added. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, stood at 2.337% on Wednesday, marginally lower for the session.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Alim Remtulla, Remtulla, Kamala Harris, there's, Trump, There's, Shannon Kirwin, Kirwin, Sameer Goel, CNBC's, doesn't, Goel, MUFG Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, EFG, Fed, CNBC, Treasury, Democratic, New York Stock Exchange, China News Service, Morningstar, European Union, Deutsche Bank, Trump, U.S, U.S ., Singapore, Malaysian, South Korean, ING Locations: Greensboro , North Carolina, Europe, United States, New York City, U.S, Mexico, Asia, China
AdvertisementMeredith Whitney expects home prices to fall by 10% to 20% as the frozen housing market starts thawing. The veteran researcher said baby boomers aren't selling, restricting the number of homes available. Home prices are poised to fall by up to a fifth as the frozen housing market thaws — and that could help baby boomers sell at last and younger people to become homeowners, Meredith Whitney says. Advertisement"The problem is the baby boomers own 60% of the housing stock," she said, referring to single-family, owner-occupied homes. AdvertisementSeveral economists have predicted a "silver tsunami" as baby boomers sell their homes to downsize or move into care homes, increasing the available supply of single-family homes and reducing prices.
Persons: Meredith Whitney, It's, Price, Whitney, millennials Organizations: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, CNBC
When Tomas Gorny started a tech business in 2001, he wasn't thinking about becoming a billionaire someday. Gorny started a business called Ipower, which sold software that helped people build their own websites. Six years later, he sold Ipower to web hosting company Endurance International for a reported $100 million. Perhaps ironically, Gorny says the more modest goal helped helped him grow his company's bottom line far more effectively. Once he released his more developed products, Ipower started adding hundreds of new customers per day, he says.
Persons: Tomas Gorny, Nextiva, who'd, he'd, Gorny, , Interliant, Ipower Organizations: Endurance, Internet Communications, Endurance International, Google, Microsoft Locations: Scottsdale , Arizona, Polish, U.S
Small-caps, small-cap value, non-US value stocks are expected to outperform with low valuations. Research Affiliates Founder Rob Arnott sees a bear market ahead for large-cap growth stocks. That spells trouble for the S&P 500, which is heavily made up of giant growth stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Small-cap stocks, small-cap value stocks, and non-US value stocks are all poised to deliver at least 10% returns annually over the next 10 years, he said. Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value index) are also cheap, with a 14 CAPE ratio.
Persons: Rob Arnott, Arnott, Russell, Vanguard Russell Organizations: Research, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Russell, Equity, Vanguard Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S
Einhorn said he's not bearish, but there will likely be better entry points into the market. Add David Einhorn to the list of top Wall Streeters pointing out how expensive the stock market is. Advertisement"This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish. Einhorn called this "the most expensive market of all time, as far as I can see, at least since I've been managing." AdvertisementBank of AmericaEinhorn is one of many to highlight stock valuations as a factor likely to impact forward returns.
Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, he's, CNH Industrials, it's, I've, Bank of America Einhorn, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Rob Arnott, Nelson Peltz, CNH, that's, That's Organizations: Alpha, Delivering Alpha, Capital, Bank of America, Research, Trian Partners, AG
The narrative from Silicon Valley is that the AI train has left the station and any smart investor had better hop on before these products become “superintelligent” and start solving all the world’s problems. Now, some of the leading language models appear to be hitting a wall, according to at least three reports last week. But if we have indeed hit a scaling wall, “it may mean that the the mega-cap technology companies have over-invested” and it’s possible that they could scale back in the near future. That’s the AI optimist/pragmatist view. For a less rosy outlook, I turned to Gary Marcus, NYU professor emeritus and outspoken critic of AI hype.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN — It’s, OpenAI, , that’s, , Orion “, Ilya Sutskever, ” Sutskever, Marc Andreessen, Sam Altman, ” Gil Luria, Davidson, it’s, ” Luria, Gary Marcus, ” Marcus, “ LLMs Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Nvidia, Tech, ” Bloomberg, ” Reuters Locations: New York, GPT
In today’s edition, national political reporter Ben Kamisar examines how House Republicans are growing increasingly aligned with Donald Trump. “One of the main takeaways from this cycle is that the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do on how we’re reaching voters,” Democratic strategist Christina Freundlich said. It’s one more thing a narrow House Republican majority will have to work through early next year. The remaining House Republicans are going to have to summon a different level of unity than they have managed recently to move the party’s legislative agenda. Martin O’Malley, a onetime presidential candidate, announced he’d enter the race for Democratic Party chair, but many more names are already circulating.
Persons: Ben Kamisar, Donald Trump, Kristen Welker, Mark Murray, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump, Christina Freundlich, , Steve Schale, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden, , ” Schale, Sen, John Fetterman, Sahil Kapur, Syedah Asghar, Ryan Nobles, Kyle Stewart, Mike Johnson, We’re, ” Johnson, Donald Trump’s, you’d, , Matt Gaetz’s, Elise Stefanik, Mike Waltz, Pete Hegseth, Brendan Carr, Carr, Johnson, ann o, lea Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Republicans, Press, Democrats, Democratic Party, Democratic, PAC, Kyle Stewart Congress, “ Fox, Republican, NBC News, Trump, Fox News, Federal Communications Commission’s, adjourning, gov Locations: Florida, Gaetz
Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats convinced frequent voters and highly engaged voters to stick with them in the 2024 presidential election. “One of the main takeaways from this cycle is that the Democratic Party has a lot of work to do on how we’re reaching voters,” Democratic strategist Christina Freundlich said. 'We simply stopped communicating to many voters'Democrats overperforming with highly engaged voters — but struggling with less-engaged voters — reflects America’s political realignment over the past decade, as Democrats have made gains among college-educated and more frequent voters, while Republicans have won over more working-class and less-frequent voters. Media consumption also underscores the political split between highly engaged voters and less-engaged ones. Schale, the Democratic strategist from Florida, argues that Democrats “simply stopped communicating” with huge swaths of voters.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Harris, Donald Trump, Trump, Christina Freundlich, , Steve Schale, Barack Obama's, Joe Biden, Schale, Sen, John Fetterman, , It’s, Jesse Ferguson, , ” Ferguson, Doug Heye, ” Heye, “ Harris Organizations: NBC, Democratic Party, Democratic, PAC, Democrats, Republicans, GOP, Media, TV, Google, Biden, Trump, Voters Locations: Florida,
After 30 years in business, Amazon is a $2 trillion behemoth and one of the world's largest retailers. Some critics believed Amazon was doomed to never recover, but founder Jeff Bezos turned things around — with some helpful advice from Jim Sinegal, founder of rival retailer Costco. Amazon, Bezos added, would always aim to be the second type of company. Bezos credited the rebound to lower prices and promised to eliminate unnecessary costs in order to make more discounts possible, the Times reported — a similar strategy to Costco's. And what really drove it was lower prices for customers…" Bezos told Fox News in January 2002.
Persons: Amazon, Jeff Bezos, Jim Sinegal, Bezos, Barnes & Noble, Brad Stone, Sinegal, Stone, Jeff, We've Organizations: Costco, Barnes &, Amazon, The New York Times, Sales, Times, Fox News, Amazon Prime, CNBC Locations: Amazon's, Bellevue , Washington
AdvertisementAn Idaho couple retired with a net worth of over $2 million by living frugally and making smart investment choices. Richard learned investment strategies later in life after losing thousands in the dot-com bubble. He worked and lived frugally while attending the University of Illinois, which he said cost just $173 his first semester. Advertisement"I haven't been a disciplined, smart investor throughout my life, but I have always lived frugally," Richard said. In retirement, Richard has produced over 70 books about his hometown, American history, and trail guides.
Persons: Richard, weren't, wasn't, it's, I've, He's Organizations: University of Illinois, Air Force, Social, Social Security Locations: Idaho, Illinois, Sacramento, Airbnbs
He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.
Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, , Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance
This week, researchers shared fascinating new findings on Uranus, the seventh planet from the sun, and the far side of the moon. Other worldsIllustrations depict how Uranus' magnetosphere, or protective bubble, was behaving before Voyager 2's arrival (left) and during the spacecraft's flyby (right). An unusual cosmic occurrence during the Voyager 2 spacecraft’s 1986 flyby might have skewed how scientists characterized the ice giant, new research suggests. In particular, the spacecraft’s observations of Uranus’ protective magnetosphere were wildly different from astronomers’ expectations. Fortunately, sending a dedicated mission to study Uranus in the future is a priority for NASA, according to a 2022 report.
Persons: Jamie Jasinski, paleoanthropologist Don Johanson, what’s, Lucy, Johanson, , afarensis, doesn’t, Bathydevius, Bruce Robison, , Marvel, Ashley Strickland, Katie Hunt, Jackie Wattles Organizations: CNN, NASA, JPL, Caltech, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Nature Reserve, WWF Tigers, Fund, Nature, Aquarium Research, CNN Space, Science Locations: Pasadena , California, Afar, Central Asia, Turkey, Russia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Caspian, Netherlands, Kuma, Kazakhstan’s Ile, California, Mt, Everest, Monterey, what’s, Iraq
“Italian Guy No. 2, so that I could have a friend to hang out with in Italy…”Ambika didn’t really expect Italian Guy No. Italian Guy No. And that’s how, a couple of weeks later, Ambika found herself cooking pasta at the Neapolitan home of Italian Guy No. And as Ambika fell slightly in love with Naples, she also fell all the more in love with Marco.
Persons: Ambika Mathur, Emily, Ambika, , Emily flit, Emily ”, she’d, , Guy No, ” Ambika, Italian Guy No, Italy …, Ambika didn’t, hadn’t, Italian Guy, Guy, Marco Di Fiore —, ” Marco, Marco, Ambika Mathur's, Marco Di Fiore, “ Marco, Riva superyacht, Brigitte Bardot’s, ’ ”, Ambika Ambika, Conca dei Marini, Amalfi, , Marco’s, ‘ Marco, , Ambika’s, it’s, Michelangelo, Marco —, Ambika can’t, I’m, he’s, ” “, It’s Organizations: CNN, Netflix, CNN Travel, Italian, LAX, Porsche, Marco, Locations: Paris, California, Los Angeles, Milan, Italy, Amalfi Coast, Italian, Naples, Amalfi, Neapolitan, It’s, Borgo, Posillipo, Napoli, Conca, Salerno, Rome, United States, Malibu, Beverly Hills, Orange County, SoCal, LA, San Diego, , Southern California, Praiano, Amafi, Massa Lubrense, Sorrento, , India
San Francisco tech bros lacked consideration and were more homogenous to one another. New York City tech bros are more diverse and considerate, yet dating remains complex. I've dated tech bros in San Francisco and New York City and have found that each city attracts completely different types of men. I wasn't looking to date tech bros, it just so happened every man I went on a date with in San Francisco was. Tech bubbles exist in San Francisco and New YorkMost San Francisco tech bros I met would be dressed in their Patagonia vests and work uniforms like a copy and paste of one another.
Persons: Chloe Diaz, , It's, Bumble, would've, I'd, Mason Margiela, They're, I've, haven't, Tess Martinelli Organizations: bros, San, Service, Arizona State University Law School, San Francisco and New, Big Tech, Spotify Locations: San Francisco, NYC, New York City, San Francisco and, San Francisco and New York City, San Francisco and New York, Patagonia, New York, York, tmartinelli
Inside Microsoft's struggles with Copilot
  + stars: | 2024-11-15 | by ( Ashley Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +23 min
In September 2023, Microsoft's famously soft-spoken CEO, Satya Nadella, unveiled the company's flagship AI product, Copilot, with sweeping fanfare. Some of Microsoft's own employees and executives are privately concerned that Copilot won't be able to deliver on its ambitions. Copilot's struggles have created an opening for Microsoft's rivals, some of whom have seized on the opportunity to promote their own agendas. "Now, when Joe Blow logs into an account and kicks off Copilot, they can see everything," said one Microsoft employee familiar with customer complaints. As complaints and questions over Copilot mount, so does the pressure to justify Microsoft's unprecedented level of spending on AI.
Persons: Microsoft's, Satya Nadella, Gartner, Copilot, it'll, Copilot's, Marc Benioff, Benioff, Goldman Sachs, Marc Andreessen, Andreessen Horowitz, Ethan Miller, Jared Spataro, Spataro, , Joe Blow, Joe, Nadella, Gary Marcus, Marcus, Wile, Coyote, Brontë, Judson Althoff, Jason Zander, Zander, We've, OpenAI, Tasos Katopodis, Steve Jobs Organizations: Microsoft, Venture, Getty, Goldman, BI, Fortune, Excel, Lumen Technologies, Honeywell, Gartner, Wall Street, Initiative, Department of Homeland Security, Employees, San Francisco, Software, Apple, Jobs Locations: Microsoft's, Copilot, New York City
The "Big Short" investor raised his stakes in Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com but also hedged the wagers. Burry didn't add any new names to his stock portfolio but exited a couple in the period. AdvertisementMichael Burry doubled down on three of China's biggest technology companies last quarter, boosting his stakes while carefully hedging his bets. The investor of "The Big Short" fame bolstered his Alibaba position by 29% to 200,000 shares worth around $21 million at the end of September, a quarterly portfolio filing revealed on Thursday. The Scion Asset Management boss doubled his JD.com stake to 500,000 shares worth $20 million at quarter end, and purchased put options on the same number of shares.
Persons: Michael Burry, , bearish, Trump, aren't, He's, Burry Organizations: Baidu, Service, Scion Asset Management, Molina Healthcare, Shift4, Hudson Pacific Properties, American Coastal Insurance, GameStop, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia Locations: Alibaba, BioAlta, TheRealReal
Hedge fund investor David Einhorn's cautious stance all year made his performance suffer as he navigated what he believes is the priciest stock market of his career at Greenlight Capital. Einhorn's hedge fund returned just 9% in 2024 through the end of the third quarter, net of fees and expenses. The high-profile investor said he's neither calling the market a bubble nor being outright bearish, but sky-high prices caused him to be conservatively positioned. It is, by many measures, the most expensive stock market that we have seen since the founding of Greenlight," Einhorn said in the latest investor letter last month. Investors will be interested to hear if he's still finding any values.
Persons: David Einhorn's, he's, Einhorn, Greenlight, Einhorn postelection, Viatris Organizations: Greenlight, Alpha, Trump Locations: Einhorn's, Greenlight, New York City
The CBOE Volatility Index , known on Wall Street as the VIX, helps traders track when a market rally is actually unhealthy, said DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas. Monday's close for the VIX around 15 "is a healthy sign" for the temperature of the market as it advances, Colas wrote to clients. To put it succinctly: "Rallies built on an elevated VIX signal a bubble," he wrote. That's a lesson market participants learned, during the dot-com bubble of the mid- to late-1990s, he said. In the current bull market, dating back to the fourth quarter of 2022, however, the VIX has been largely "well behaved," Colas argued.
Persons: DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Donald Trump, , Monday's, Colas, That's, Jessica Rabe, Trump Organizations: Research, U.S
Magnetospheres are the protective bubbles around planets like Earth that have magnetic cores and magnetic fields, and they are driven by the planet’s magnetic field. Voyager 2’s data showed that Uranus’ magnetosphere was home to unexpectedly powerful electron radiation belts. Voyager 2’s observations of Uranus’ magnetosphere defied the way astronomers understand how magnetic fields trap energetic particles and their radiation. The first panel (left) of this artist's concept depicts how Uranus' protective magnetosphere behaved prior to Voyager 2's flyby. Fortunately, sending a dedicated mission to study Uranus in the future has become a priority for NASA, according to a report released in 2022.
Persons: , Jamie Jasinski, ” Jasinski, It’s, Linda Spilker, Spilker, ” Spilker, James Webb Organizations: CNN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA, JPL, Caltech, Orbiter, Probe Locations: Pasadena , California
Director Jon M. Chu and his wife, Kristin Hodge, expanded their family by one more, welcoming the birth of their daughter on Nov. 9. Chu shared several more posts on his Instagram stories, including a snap of his suit for the premiere still in its garment bag. Chu also gave fans a first glimpse of his newborn daughter, sharing a sweet video of his wife holding their baby on her chest in the hospital. “Happy Premiere Day!! You have a lot of witches on your side.”In addition to their newborn daughter, Chu and Hodge are parents to four other children: Willow, 7, Jonathan Heights, 5, Ruby, 3 and Iggy, 1.
Persons: Jon M, Chu, Kristin Hodge, , ” Chu, , Ariana Grande’s, Frankie Grande, Hodge, ” Jon M, Jonathan Heights, Iggy, “ I’ve, I’m, , glimmering, Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Grande, Erivo, Kristin Chenoweth, Idina Menzel, Jonathan Bailey, Fiyero, Michelle Yeoh, Madame Morrible Organizations: Angeles, Universal Pictures, NBCUniversal, fam, Broadway Locations: Grande
CNN —This week in travel news: why true crime buffs are heading to Beverly Hills, a look at the world’s only Michelin-starred ice cream restaurant and the reaction to a “makeunder” of one of Italy’s star attractions. Ice, ice babyThis -40 °C pastry dessert at Minimal is served with a side of gelato. MINIMALWe all scream for ice cream — and “we” includes the Michelin guide, which recently awarded one of its coveted stars to Minimal, an ice cream restaurant in Taiwan. Not-so-bella vistaVideo Ad Feedback They replaced the Trevi fountain and tourists are ‘disappointed’ 01:17 - Source: CNNThe Trevi fountain might be the most famous tourist attraction in a city packed to the brim with tourist attractions. However, recent visitors to the famous fountain were less than impressed with what they found.
Persons: Menendez, Lyle, Erik Menendez, Jose, Kitty, , I’m, Toni Ricci, “ We’re, Arvin Wan, , gua bao, Trevi, you’ve, Haggis, Moo Deng, There’s, George Clooney, Alicia Park Organizations: CNN, Michelin, Netflix, Beverly Hills, Edinburgh Zoo, Royal Zoological Society of Scotland Locations: Beverly Hills, Beverly, Argentina, Guatemala, Colombia, Sweden, United States, Taiwan, Taichung, Rome, India, Costa Rica, It’s, Lake Como, Jaywalking, New York City
Bernd Vogel | Stone | Getty ImagesBrad Klontz was drawn to financial psychology after the tech bubble burst in the early 2000s. GI: Does this suggest that people, no matter their socioeconomic circumstances, can lift themselves out of poverty if they adopt a rich mindset? A rich mindset puts an emphasis on owning their time versus owning a bunch of stuff. Bradley T. Klontz, Psy.D., CFP, is an expert in financial psychology, behavioral finance and financial planning. You can work at McDonald's your entire life and be a millionaire if you have that mindset.
Persons: Bernd Vogel, Stone, Brad Klontz, Klontz, Adrian Brambila —, Greg Iacurci, That's, I've, It's, I'm, They're, they're, Bradley T, Bradley Organizations: CNBC, Financial Wellness, IRA, BK Locations: McDonald's
Hong Kong CNN —Ye Kunkun spent 398 yuan (about $56) on a special iced Americano at a rural café in southeastern China. Xue Ke, the café owner, told CNN that they receive about 50 visitors on weekdays and double that on weekends. Xue Ke, the owner of Gushi Cliff Coffee, climbs on the cliff face. “This was one of my considerations when choosing the site.”Coastal views near Gushi Cliff Coffee in Fuzhou, southeastern China. While both Ye and Lin were satisfied with the service, they paused when it came to the price tag.
Persons: Ye Kunkun, Ye, rungs, , ” Ye, Coffee, Cliff, , Xue Ke, Cliff Coffee, Xue, , Spiderman, Lin Jiaxin, ” Lin Jiaxin, ” Lin, wilder, Lin, I’ll Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Americano, CNN, China’s, Golden Locations: Hong Kong, China, it’s, – Gushi, Fuzhou, Fujian, Cliff, Taiwan Strait, Taiwan, Gushi Cliff Coffee
Peter Thiel made a "contrarian" prediction that the election wouldn't be close. Thiel has a history of making contrarian bets in his investments and business ventures. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementIn September, conservative tech billionaire Peter Thiel made what he acknowledged was an unusual prediction about the 2024 election. My one contrarian view on the election is that it's not going to be close," Thiel said in September at an appearance at the All In Summit in Los Angeles.
Persons: Peter Thiel, Thiel, , it's, aren't, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Kamala, Trump, Sen, JD Vance, Blake Masters — Thiel, Elon Musk Organizations: Trump, Service, PayPal, Trump voters, Democratic, Republican Locations: Los Angeles, Ohio, Trump
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