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☆ CPI: America’s final inflation report for 2023 just came in
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.

Persons: “, ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, ’, Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s

☆ Instant View: Fed hikes another 25 basis points, hints it may be the last increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

TOM GARRETSON, STRATEGIST, RBC PORTFOLIO ADVISORY GROUP, MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA"It was a pretty dovish rate hike today. The expectations were that it might be a bit more of a hawkish rate hike in terms of leaving the door open to further hikes if needed." "The updated language in the policy statement does suggest the bar is going to be quite high for further rate hikes. … The market is hoping or expecting the Fed to pause after this rate hike. From a consumer credit perspective, the impact of further rate hikes will likely continue to be felt by borrowers across a range of industries.

☆ China's economy will grow 5% this year, Fitch Ratings says in upgraded forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's economy will expand by 5% in 2023, Fitch Ratings said in a revised forecast on Wednesday – an improved outlook from its previous 4.1% growth prediction made in December. Fitch also pointed to China's latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing and services, a measure of business activity, that indicated further growth. China's official manufacturing PMI reading rose to 50.1 in January from a previous reading of 47, and its services PMI rose to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022. A value above 50 indicates expansion of economic activity; a reading below 50 points to a contraction. The economists also noted China's gross domestic product reading in December was better than Fitch had expected.

The stronger-than-expected hiring pushed the unemployment rate to 3.4%, the lowest since the spring of 1969. “It will give the Fed absolutely no reassurance that labor market imbalances – which have been adding to wage pressures - are easing," said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings. "It will reinforce the message that the Fed still has quite a lot of work to do to tame core inflation." U.S. Labor Secretary Martin Walsh said he thought Friday's report showed signs of an economy and labor market steadily returning to normal. Powell pointed out that the years just before the COVID-19 health crisis included simultaneously low unemployment, low inflation, and sustainably modest wage growth, proof that a best-case set of conditions was achievable.

☆ Analysis: Global economy bets on China learning to live with COVID
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda cited the resurgence of virus cases in China as putting downward pressure on the global economy, while Taiwan listed the spread of COVID-19 in China as one big uncertainty facing its economy. But equally, those inflationary pressures could be cancelled out if China's woes led to softer global demand for commodities. The New York Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, launched about a year ago, already edged higher in October and November in a moderate reversal of a persistent loosening of global supply bottlenecks seen through most of 2022. Much will depend on the policy response of Chinese leaders who have pledged to support the slowing economy and to cushion the impact of rising COVID-19 infections. The World Bank now sees China's economy growing 2.7% this year and 4.3% in 2023, somewhat slower than its September forecasts of 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

☆ Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

STORY: STATEMENT TEXT:MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: The S&P 500 turned sharply lower then steadied down 0.11%BONDS: Benchmark 10-year note yields rose then backed off to 3.4847%. CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They’re reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. You know, the biggest thing that is holding the Fed back right now are the jobs numbers. The most dovish participants is looking for an extra 50 bps of hikes.

☆ Instant view: Fed hikes rates by 50 bp, as expected, keeps hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE“The Fed is taking away the punchbowl just as the party was getting started. They're reiterating their forecasts but the whisper number was that the Fed was going to stop at a 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate. "But the Fed is out there saying that 5.1% is still on the cards … and that rate hikes will continue." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“The most interesting part of the releases were in the Summary of Economic Projections. And they’re holding it there longer than markets expected.”“In addition, they’re downgrading GDP estimates for this year, and in particular, for next year.

With interest rates back then already close to zero, they had run out of conventional ammunition to ward off the threat of outright deflation they feared would choke off the economic recovery. As one Danish bank vaunted the world's first negative rate mortgage, it is likely that cheap borrowing added steam to house price spikes across the region. "It's the central bankers who have taken interest rates to a level where we attach no value to the future," he said. As the negative rate era closes, the global pool of assets with negative yield has shrunk to less than $2 trillion from a 2020 peak of some $18 trillion. "I am very doubtful anyone here is ready to say never again for negative rates."

☆ Aggressive Fed hikes rates another 75 bp, surprising no one
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

So this is a pretty hawkish 75 basis point increase when it comes to how the text reads." What it's telling us is that the Fed is expecting to rates to continue to move higher into 2023." There's a camp that says whatever the Fed guides to has typically been the floor and not the ceiling. This communication is basically signaling that the Fed's going to continue to be aggressive and remain hawkish. Not only did the Fed hike another unusually large 75 bps today, it is basically saying it will do it again in November.

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