From a fundamental perspective, the production cuts announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to remove excess barrels from the market.
Since most fund positions are concentrated in nearby months, where liquidity and volatility are greatest, the wave of buying has accelerated the return to a backwardation structure.
The exceptionally low level of hedge fund positions in crude means there is plenty of scope for position-building to anticipate, accelerate and amplify the move.
Related columns:- Oil investors less bearish after Saudi output cut extended (July 10, 2023)- Is oil market’s glass half full or half empty?
(June 29, 2023)- Frustrated oil bulls made to wait for price recovery (June 22, 2023)- Saudi Arabia’s 'lollipop' has yet to sweeten oil prices (June 6, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons:
Brent, WTI, John Kemp, Paul Simao
Organizations:
Thomson, Reuters
Locations:
Saudi Arabia, Russia, backwardation, North America, Europe, China, Brent, Saudi